I was doing my usual perusal of the various baseball Sabermetrics blogs out there, and on beyondtheboxscore.com, as they do every week, they listed their weekly awards. Most of these awards are based on advanced statistics, and some of them make fun of traditional statistics, such as "The Rey Sanchez Batting Average Is All I've Got Award" and "The Harmon Killebrew Batting Average Is For Wussies Award." What caught my attention was the NL MVP award. He said that for the season, "the national media has seemed to have been hyping Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard more than Wright," although according to his metrics, the current MVP leader is Hanley Ramirez. Az I spent some time this morning compiling some stats from baseball-reference.com, baseballprospectus.com, and fangraphs.com, and came up with some of my own conclusions. I obviously chose to look at Wright, Fielder, Howard, and Ramirez, but I also tossed in four more legit MVP candidates (Utley, Pujols, Holliday, and Cabrera), and a couple other odds and ends (Bonds, Braun. (again, more odd than end)) to make it a nice round ten. I tossed in Bonds and Braun just to compare their stats with the others', even though there's a negligible probability that the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) will vote either of them in. And that's also what this post is about, not only my feelings about who should win, but also who I think has a legit shot at getting the votes from the BBWAA, who look at much different factors than I would. Anyway, you'll see which stats I used once I get to the players, but what I also did was rank each of the ten players in a few of the important stats from one to ten and summed that total at the end. A low total is good. You'll get the idea.
Stats used: OPS+: On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage, measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. League average is normalized to 100.
RC/27: Runs Created if that player took every at-bat for his team for a whole game.
WPA: Win Probability Added: The sum total of the probabilities of winning each game that was added by each of that player's at-bats.
EqA: Equivalent Average: A calculation of several hitting stats averaged to .260 to mimic traditional Batting Average.
VORP: Value Over Replacement Player: A baseballprospectus statistic, which determines how many runs a player has produced during the season above a replacement level player.
WARP1: Wins Above Replacement Player: A baseballprospectus statistic, which determines how many wins a player has produced during the season above a replacement level player.
Let's start with the guys that beyondtheboxscore.com thinks will win:
-Prince Fielder, 1B,
Pertinent Stats: 39 HR, 97 RBI, 99 Ks, .376 OBP, .604 SLG, 150 OPS+(Rank: 6), 8.28 RC/27(7), 4.04 WPA(2), .316 EqA(8), 49.8 VORP(8), 5.1 WARP1(8), 39(which I got by adding 6+7+2+8+8+8) Total Rank(7).
Prince will garner a lot of attention from the BBWAA because of his gaudy counting stats (HR, RBI), especially since he leads the NL in Home Runs. Additionally, since the Milwaukee Brewers moved to the NL, the team has been a disaster, az their return to contention this season makes their offensive leader an attractive choice. I believe he's having an outstanding season at the plate, and I think he does deserve a few votes, but we'll see soon that he might not even be the top MVP candidate in his own infield.
-Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia PhilliesPertinent Stats: 34 HR, 106 RBI, 1 SB, 152 Ks, .388 OBP, .566 SLG, 142 OPS+(10), 7.77 RC/27(10), 1.88 WPA(9), .310 EqA(10), 39.2 VORP(10), 4.7 WARP1(9), 38 Total Rank(10).
Umm, he doesn't even belong in the discussion. He is 2nd on this list in HR, Walks, and RBI, which is pretty good, I guess... but he's either last or next to last in all the Sabermetric stats. That's not to say that he's having a poor season, not at all! He's just not the MVP.
Now let's move on to the real contenders:
-Matt Holliday, LF, Colorado Rockies
Pertinent Stats: 44 2Bs, 24 HR, 103 RBI, 102 Ks, .338 BA, .397 OBP, .580 SLG, 144 OPS+(9), 8.26 RC/27(8), 2.98 WPA(7), .313 EqA(9), 53.5 VORP(7), 7.4 WARP1(7), 47 Total Rank(9).
Man, he's just getting crushed by Coors Field. He has very nice numbers in all the counting stats, but the normalized Sabermetric stats are really penalizing him for his ballpark. Although his WPA is still low on the list, az maybe he deserves to be low on here. He also plays brutal defense, although I haven't been able to get any Zone Rating data, etc.
-Chase Utley, 2B,
Pertinent Stats: 42 2Bs, 18 HR, 84 RBI, .339 BA, .416 OBP, .592 SLG, 156 OPS+(5), 10.24 RC/27(2), 3.07 WPA(6), .327 EqA(4), 57.9 VORP(4), 7.2 WARP1(5), 26 Total Rank(5).
Utley is an interesting case because he's been injured for the last six weeks, but he's still managed to accrue some very nice stats, especially for a 2nd baseman. However, the time he's missed has affected his Sabermetric cumulative stats (VORP and WARP1), and he also gets marked down by the Citizen's Bank band-box in which he plays. Nonetheless, his rate stats (RC/27 and EqA) are outstanding, and his performance over the last month of the season could push him over the top. I love Max Kellerman, but each time he says that Robby Cano is a better hitter than Utley, I lose a little bit of faith in him.
-Albert Pujols, 1B,
Pertinent Stats: 30 HR, 84 RBI, 79 BBs, 54 Ks, .319 BA, .420 OBP, .568 SLG, 157 OPS+(4), 8.19 RC/27(9), 3.64 WPA(3), .330 EqA(3), 56.9 VORP(5), 9.2 WARP1(1), 25 Total Rank(3).
Jesus, he is such a good hitter. He started off the season in a horrible slump, but has come back since June with a vengeance. He leads the NL in WARP1, he never EVER strikes out, and according to soulofbaseball.blogspot.com, he's the top fielding 1st baseman in the league. I don't quite know why RC/27 doesn't like him, but since that's like my favorite stat, that's going to count heavily against him. I think he might very well deserve to be the MVP, but the BBWAA won't vote for him because he doesn't have many RBI, and his team has not played well this year.
-Miguel Cabrera, 3B,
Pertinent Stats: 30 HR, 91 RBI, 104 Ks, .318 BA, .397 OBP, .585 SLG, 158 OPS+(3), 8.43 RC/27(6), 3.49 WPA(4), .329 EqA(2), 60.9 VORP(2), 8.1 WARP1(2), 19 Total Rank(2).
What an excellent year he's having! It's really a shame that the Marlins pitching staff isn't nearly as good as it was last year, because if they made a playoff push, Cabrera would absolutely be the MVP if I had to choose. The only things that go against him are his RC/27 and his horrid play in the field. Again, I don't have any zone rating stats, but I've watched him play a lot, and I see that he has almost no range to his left or right, and watching him lumber in on a bunt is like watching an elephant on a nature show. Either way, he's still one of the best mashers in all of baseball.
-Hanley Ramirez, SS,
Pertinent Stats: 101 Runs, 23 HR, 41 SB, .331 BA, .389 OBP, .558 SLG, 149 OPS+(7), 8.54 RC/27(5), 2.06 WPA(8), .318 EqA(7), 71.0 VORP(1), 6.6 WARP1(6), 34 Total Rank(6).
This guy sure does bring a lot to the table. He hits Home Runs, he steals a lot of bases, he gets on base, and all of these contribute to his league leading VORP. If he could develop a little more plate discipline (44 Walks) and learn how to play shortstop (even worse than Jeter according to Soul of Baseball), he could truly become the best all around player in baseball. He might be already.
-David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
Pertinent Stats: 23 HR, 86 RBI, 28 SB, 77 BBs, 102 Ks, .316 BA, .410 OBP, .530 SLG, 149 OPS+(7), 8.78 RC/27(3), 3.16 WPA(5), .327 EqA(4), 60.8 VORP(3), 7.6 WARP1(3), 25 Total Rank(3).
He's my favorite player. It's really a crying shame that he doesn't have more RBI because he's really putting together a memorable season. His plate discipline has become terrific, and he's one of the top fielding 3rd basemen in the league. He's very close to projecting to 30 HR/30 SB this year, which would be quite a feat. He really knows how to run the bases, and really picks his spots well (28 SB, 4 CS). Combining his offense and defense makes him a very strong MVP candidate, but I still have to go with Cabrera this season.
And now, for fun:
-Ryan Braun, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Pertinent Stats: 82 Games, 332 ABs, 25 HR, 11 SB, .334 BA, .378 OBP, .648 SLG, 161 OPS+(2), 8.69 RC/27(7), 1.30 WPA(10), .327 EqA(4), 46.4 VORP(9), 3.5 WARP1(10), 42 Total Rank(8).
If only he was the starter for the whole season... It's amazing that he's even better than Ryan Howard in VORP, which is a cumulative stat. He has the highest SLG in the NL, and is on pace to set the rookie record for SLG. And he's Jewish! Check his page on wikipedia (Hebrew Hammer, Hah!)
-Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants
Pertinent Stats: 27 HR, 64 RBI, 126 BBs, .495 OBP, .595 SLG, 184 OPS+(1), 40 IBB, 11.35 RC/27(1), 4.53 WPA(1), .368 EqA(1), 55.9 VORP(6), 6.2 WARP1(7), 17 Total Rank(1).
Even at 43 he's playing a different game than everyone else. It's absolutely ridiculous that he's still performing at such a high level. If he wasn't a huge jerk and a cheater he'd get a ton of votes. I hate him.
Az here's what I think:
Should win: Miguel Cabrera
I want to win: David Wright
Will win: Prince Fielder
