Monday, October 26, 2009

Time to Chime In


Az we finally know who will be playing in the 2009 World Series. Phillies and Yankees, blah blah blah, sucks for Mets fans, who cares? I'm over it. It's not a big deal. Really, it's not. And anyone who says it is, is a bitter human being who hates baseball. I'm NOT here to talk about that; this is not some kind of shockumentary about a Phillies/Yankees World Series from the eyes of a melancholy metropolitan fan. Again, who cares?

Really, the point of this post, as you might have guessed, is that I hate Derek Jeter. And I think I might have pinpointed the reason. I mean I sorta knew subconsciously, but I never actually articulated it as I will right now. I've tried to explain this to a few people over the last week or two, but I don't think it went over very well, az I'm gonna give it another try here.

Before I begin, I just want to say that I still think that Derek Jeter is an outstanding baseball player, and will most likely be a first-ballot hall of famer. That being said, Derek Jeter is NOT an Olympian god. He is a man, a man who is excellent at playing baseball. He is NOT the greatest, clutch-iest, defense-iest player in the history of greatness or clutch-iness or defense-yness. The only thing he is the greatest ever at is Jeterianism.

According to urbandictionary.com:


jeterian
1. making a play like derek jeter
2. a way of playing baseball; with class and determination and unbelievable plays and swings
He is definitely classy. He definitely plays with determination. And he has definitely been involved in some unbelievable plays and has had some unbelievable swings of the bat.

He is also way worse at baseball than Alex Rodriguez. I don't want to go through their career stats; that would be misleading and unfair, because they are different types of hitters. They basically have the same batting average and basically walk the same amount, but suffice it to say that A-Rod hits with a lot more power. But here's the thing. Everybody knows this; everyone will agree that Alex Rodriguez is a better player than Derek Jeter. And, almost to a man, everyone would rather have Derek Jeter up in a big spot than A-Rod. If you had to choose between Jeter and A-Rod for your post-season roster, 99.9% of human beings would choose Derek Jeter (I'm probably not too far off with that estimate. Maybe closer to 90%, but either way, it's up there).

The main reason for this is that people want to believe in supernatural powers. The average fan wants to believe that some professional athletes who make millions of dollars have some innate ability to perform better in big spots. This ability is what separates the stars from the bums, the Jeters from the A-Rods. In short, this ability turns normal human beings into heroes. And that's what the average fan wants to believe: that their favorite players are heroes.

The ugly little secret that most analysts don't want the average fan to know is that there's no such thing as "clutch-iness." I'm sorry to be the one to spill the beans, but there is no Santa Claus, and there are no clutch players. "But wait, Professor Schmutter! What about that home run in the world series against Kim in 2001?" Umm, Derek Jeter has 224 career home runs, not a negligible amount. He just happened to hit that one in a big spot. "But Professor, what about diving into the stands for that foul pop against the Red Sox and that play at the plate on Jeremy Giambi?" Not clutch. Good baseball instincts. Everyone will agree with that. "But all those Gold Gloves!" Undeserving. Go read some stuff on teh interweb and prepare to be pwned! Test next week.

"Ok, Professor, there's no way you have an answer for this one: what about how well Jeter has performed in the playoffs as compared to the regular season? And what about how poorly A-Rod has performed in the playoffs?" said little Mikey in the 4th row, a smug, buck-toothed grin on his pimply face. His fellow 4th row-ers sniggered and pointed at me, likely making fun of my newly purchased pocket protector protector. Little do they know that I only use mechanical pencils and the protector protector is just a fashion statement.

Well, let's just take a little look-see at some stats:

Jeter: Regular Season: .317 Batting Average, .388 On-Base Percentage, .459 Slugging Percentage
Post-Season: .308 Batting Average, .381 On-Base Percentage, .477 Slugging Percentage.

Hey, how about that! Those numbers are basically exactly the same! Nothing particularly clutch-y about that.

A-Rod: Regular Season: .305 Batting Average, .390 On-Base Percentage, .576 Slugging Percentage
Post-Season: .307 Batting Average, .408 On-Base Percentage, .570 Slugging Percentage

Well fancy that! Those numbers are basically exactly the same, dadgummit!

Sure, any idiot can have a good game or a good series, or even a good entire post-season. But eventually, when you play enough games, your post-season numbers will look exactly like your regular season numbers. Why? Because there's no such thing as clutch.

"Hold on Professor. Most of your students still look at RBI and stuff, but I'm too smart for that. Go check out fangraphs.com and check their Win Probability Added. That should show you how much more valuable Jeter is than A-Rod. He's so f-ing clutch!" Ah, Curtis in the front row. Such a cool customer. He's on the right track. Kissing up and crew-cuts are such babe-magnets.

Jeter's Post-Season WPA from 2002-2009 (sorry, no data before 2002): 0.16, 0.08, -0.25, 0.06, 0.01, -0.41, 0.00. Total = -0.35.

A-Rod's Post-Season WPA since 2004 (never made the playoffs before then): 1.27, -0.12, -0.28, -0.19, 1.34. Total = 2.02. those numbers basically mean that in 2004 and 2009 A-Rod won the equivalent of one game all by his lonesome.

You see? This is my problem. There is no disputing that Jeter is a fantastic player. I just can't stand that most fans think he's the greatest thing since sliced bread. I really really hope that A-Rod continues to clobber the ball in the World Series and Jeter does his usual thing. I want everyone to realize that A-Rod is an all-time great. I guess I kinda, sorta hope the Yankees win the series; I don't see what makes the Phillies so good, and Jayson Werth is really starting to bother me. But more importantly, I want the fans to discover A-Rod as a legendary player. I think he deserves some love.