A Really Good Day

And no, this has nothing to do with women.

So the early part of the day went pretty much as expected. The subway was the subway, work was work, etc. But then my co-workers took me out for lunch as sort of a congratulations-you-got-a-new-job/good-riddance-to-bad-rubbish "celebration." That really was very nice. We (3 Jews (one observant (me)), a Greek, an Asian, and an Italian) went to Taam Tov for some good, old-fashioned Bukharian food. Perfect. Then we walked off our meal with a pleasant stroll over to Bryant Park and a quick trip to the new Bank of America headquarters on 6th Avenue between 42nd and 43rd streets (somehow they scored the address "One Bryant Park." I guess it's all about who you know).

Anyway, I finished up work after lunch and then walked to the Apple Store on 5th Avenue and 58th Street. I didn't know exactly where it was az I looked it up online. I thought "hmm, that looks like FAO Schwartz... Did FAO Schwartz become the Apple Store?" So I walk over there and then I realized that the Apple Store is UNDER the plaza in front of FAO Schwartz. I have never been to such a store in my life. I dunno if any of you have been there, but it's very difficult to explain it; you have to see it for yourself. It's one gigantic room of Apple products (iphones, ipods, macbook airs, etc.), and it's full of people trying them out. Seriously, I think if you got rid of all the people the place would look empty. I mean almost none of the space was taken up by the product displays; it was mostly just people. And there were A LOT of people. Here's how I could tell it was a high-class place. There were two people standing at the entrance (under the enormous Apple logo) whose sole purpose was to drop customers' umbrellas into a device that made them come out in bags so they wouldn't get everything wet. What a place! Anyway, I didn't buy anything, but I did order a refurbished 4 GB Nano online for $99. I figure either I'll switch back to AT&T after another year and just buy an iphone, or my new company will supply me with a blackberry rendering an iphone redundant, so I think the refurb Nano is a good stop-gap.

I left the Apple Store and walked to Columbus Circle to catch the A-train uptown. I had to hurry because my student's math final is today (Thursday), and we had a lot to cover. I got back to my apartment, changed my clothes, wolfed down a cinnamon bun (dinner of champions), ordered the refurb Nano online, checked my DVR to make sure So You Think You Can Dance was being recorded, and high-tailed it up to Riverdale. Six hours later and we were done with Trigonometry, Limits, and introductory Calculus. Gotta give the kid props for sticking with me for that long; I hope he does well. Seriously, can you believe that I sat down and did math for six hours? I didn't even notice; the time just flew by. A lot of you will assert that I could do it because I was getting paid an obscene amount of money, but I can safely say that I would have done it for a quarter the price (not gonna do it for free; my time is still valuable). Math is just that fun for me.

When I finally arrived back at my apartment at almost 1:00 am, a Cap'n Munch sandwich from Chickie's was waiting for me. It was a bit soggy and essentially at room temperature, but it was still delicious. Meanwhile, the Mets were down 4-3 to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the ninth inning, and no one can hit Francisco Rodriguez these days. But a hit by Jose Reyes, a wild pitch from K-Rod, and another hit by David Wright, and the Mets had tied it up. Damion Easley's home run in the 10th won it, and a perfect tenth inning from Billy Wagner shut the door. I couldn't be happier with how the day went.

Side note completely unrelated to yesterday's events: ESPN has recently hired a couple of castoffs from other sports ventures: Warner Wolf ("Let's go to the videoTAPE!") and Rick Reilly. Now I never really had any strong feelings about Rick Reilly; I never really read Sports Illustrated. I wasn't too impressed with his work, but whatever, who cares? I still don't read his stuff on ESPN. But I actually do get to hear from Warner Wolf every day because he has a few 30-second spots on Mike and Mike in the Morning between 9 and 10 am. And my conclusion: he is dumb. I fully respect ESPN for getting these guys because they are big names and appeal to sports fans of all ages, but some things I won't tolerate. I have zero doubt that Warner Wolf knows a million times more about sports than I do, but that doesn't mean he's allowed to tell us what athletes are thinking. Here's the basic gist of what he said this morning:

"A recent poll was taken of a bunch of Major League Baseball players, and they were asked who they think is the most over-rated player in the game. The top-five vote-getters were Derek Jeter, Barry Zito, J.D. Drew, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis. It comes as no surprise that four of those guys play for the Yankees or Red Sox. Maybe the voters were just JEALOUS. Four of those guys are also some of the highest paid players in the game! Warner Wolf, 1050, ESPN New York..."

No no no no no no no no no no no no and no. Does he really think that players are calling those guys over-rated because they're jealous of how much money they're making?! Now I'm certainly not arrogant enough to say what those guys are thinking, but I think it makes a lot more sense to say that those voters think those five players are over-rated precisely BECAUSE they're making so much money. As far as I'm concerned, getting paid too much money for what you're worth is exactly what it means to be over-rated. Come on Warner; you're not senile yet. Think a little bit.

Another side note completely unrelated to anything previously said with the exception of a Mike-and-Mike shoutout: On the radio they have various hosts do commercials for different products. Mike and Mike do commercials for Olevia HD-TVs and Colin Cowherd (another one of those guys ESPN employs to appeal to a certain kind of sports fan), who I hate, does commercials for Vizio HD-TVs. Now I know absolutely nothing about the relative quality of Olevia TVs compared to Vizio TVs, but what I DO know is that I would never ever buy a Vizio instead of an Olevia, because I love Mike and Mike and I hate Colin Cowherd. There's gotta be some kind of marketing analysis behind all this.

Just Play

Okay, seriously. Can we just get over it already? Willie Randolph was fired as manager of the Mets. Honestly, who cares? I'm not upset that the Mets fired the manager, but I AM upset that we're gonna be hearing about it on the radio and on TV and reading about it in the newspaper and online. I'd rather just hear/read/watch actual baseball. People are going absolutely bonkers about this, "oh, Willie Randolph is such a nice man... how can the bad old Mets do this to a New York legend?" And even the people who are in favor of the firing are taking it way too seriously. Is Willie putting on his second baseman's glove and taking the field every day? Is he picking up a bat and stepping into the batter's box to face the opposing pitcher? No and no. The identity of the manager has a negligible effect on the performance of his team. A manager can't make bad players into good players no matter how good a manager he is. I'm so fed up with this. I want the players, the fans, and especially the media to wash their hands of this whole situation so we can get back to actual real baseball. Mets are playing the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim tonight, and I might even mute the sound so I won't have to hear all the commentators and announcers talk about "Willie this" and "Willie that." Just let them play.

What's Wrong with Wright?

Wow, that title had all four words starting with "W." That's some serious alliteration right there.

Anyway, we're now 68 games into the 2008 baseball season and the Mets are pretty much stuck in neutral. Two posts ago I looked at each player to try to determine what was going on, and I mentioned that David Wright was getting a bit unlucky:

"Am I concerned? Nope. David's really been hitting the ball hard all year. As I expected, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is around 40 points below what it should be. His Line-Drive percentage is a robust 23.5%, which should translate to a .355 BABIP, but his is sitting at .310 currently. It's only a matter of time until those line drives start falling in for hits and his stats rise accordingly."

But now I want to look at David Wright more in depth. Let's examine his secondary stats and compare them to his numbers from last season:

Let's start with his slash stats: Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage/OPS
2007: .325/.416/.546/.963
2008: .276/.373/.485/.858
Those stats are way down this year.

And now his counting stats:
2007: 30 HR, 107 RBI, 113 Runs, 34 SB, 42 Doubles, 94 Walks, 115 Ks
2008 (pace): 29 HR, 119 RBI, 100 Runs, 19 SB, 43 Doubles, 100 Walks, 114 Ks.
Now those look almost identical! Looks like he's just hitting fewer singles.

Let's go deeper: Walk Percentage/Strikeout Percentage/Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio
2007: 13.5% / 19.0% / 0.82
2008: 13.5% / 17.9% / 0.88
So this is starting to look fishy. He's walking just as often and he's striking out less. Looks like the progression of a player who is getting better at judging the strike zone. So why are his stats down?

Let's keep going: Ground Ball Percentage/Fly Ball Percentage/Ground Ball-to-Fly Ball Ratio/Home Runs per Fly Ball Percentage/Line Drive Percentage/Batting Average on Balls in Play
2007: 39.3% / 37.5% / 1.05 / 16.1% / 23.2% / .362
2008: 38.4% / 40.6% / 0.95 / 13.2% / 21.0% / .298
Okay, so ground balls are down and fly balls are up; that's usually a good sign. But line drive percentage is down, and home run percentage is WAY down. And as I said last time, his actual batting average on balls in play is .32 points below what it should be, which accounts for his low overall batting average.

One step further: Swing percentage at pitches outside the strike zone/swing percentage at pitches in the strike zone/overall percentage of pitches swung at/contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone/contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone/overall contact percentage
2007: 21.66% / 64.83% / 42.54% / 66.24% / 88.76% / 82.84%
2008: 20.79% / 68.69% / 44.40% / 62.20% / 90.44% / 83.74%
So he's swinging at more balls overall, which is fine because he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and more pitches in. And he's making more overall contact, which is also fine because he's making contact more often on pitches in the strike zone.

Conclusion: I have no freakin' clue why his numbers aren't up to par. All signs are pointing to Wright's continued development in terms of reading the strike zone. He's walking more than last year; he's striking out less often, he's hitting more fly balls, and he's swinging at better pitches. The only thing that looks wrong is his line drive percentage. Considering that he's swinging at better pitches I expect that number to change. Besides, he usually picks it up in the second half. I'm prepared to submit that David Wright is just getting unlucky. His luck is bound to turn around sooner or later.

Special thanks to fangraphs.com for advanced statistics.

Note: According to the fantastic website hittrackeronline.com, of David Wright's 31 home runs last year, twelve of them were "just enough," tied for third most in the NL. "Just enough" means that it cleared the fence by less than ten feet. Also, he led the NL in "lucky" home runs with ten, two more than the next most. A "lucky" home run would not have been a home run without help from the weather or other conditions (Colorado, for example). Az 22 of his 31 home runs could easily have been outs were it not for a bit of outside help. Some might say that it's a skill to use the conditions to your advantage. Others will posit that there were probably a bunch of fly balls that fell just short of the wall and that the "lucky" and "just enough" home runs have evened out with the ones that didn't make it over the fence. Either way, Wright might not be quite the impressive slugger that he appears. Maybe those lucky ones have just not been quite enough this year. Hopefully everything will even out as the year goes on and some of those outs will turn into home runs.

Uptown A Experience?

That subject came up over the weekend. I was at a Shavuot lunch on Tuesday and for some reason the ice breaker was to tell a commuting story. The story I told can be read in my post "Ridiculous," from August 8th, 2007. Anyway, we were talking about the subways, and someone who gets up like three hours earlier than I said that he likes the Downtown-A-Experience-Guy too. Az we were musing about what he says on his way back to Manhattan; does he say "this is the uptown A experience...?"

But that's not the point of this post. I'm going on another rant about the public transportation system. Many of you take the B or D train a couple of stops every day; I take it two stops between Rockefeller Center and Columbus Circle. My rant is not regarding the frequency (or infrequency, to be more precise) with which those trains come, but rather the timing. As everyone knows, the A and D trains run on the same track at 59th street, az many times you'll be on the D train going uptown and it will stop just before the Columbus Circle station. It's a bit frustrating when you want to get on an A train and that train is the very reason you're own train has stopped, but there's nothing to be done about that. My problem is actually more of a psychological one. Now, I assume that there is some absurdly complex algorithm for determining when which trains should go where and how often they should come, but this just doesn't make any sense. Probably at least once a week I'll be on a D train that is waiting at the 7th avenue stop (one stop before Columbus Circle). It might wait for a few minutes, not really a big deal. But then it will stop again as it's approaching 59th street because of an A train in front of it! Now I want to ask a couple of questions:

1. If there's an A train in front of the train now, what was it waiting for at the 7th avenue station?
2. If the D train was going to have to wait for an A train to move anyway, why didn't it just continue waiting until the A train would have been gone?

See that's just screwing with you, you know? You're waiting for the subway doors to close and you're relieved when they finally do. But then you end up waiting again in between stations! Just have us wait only once.

Anyway, it will be a moot point pretty soon because I won't be taking the B or D train any longer come June 20th. It's quite probable that my ability to post will be curtailed for at least a little while as well. Hameivin yavin.

Projection Update

We're now one-third of the way through the baseball season (well, a tad more, but let's pretend). By now we should have enough data to compare to the pre-season projections. Az let's jump right in. All stats are through the first 54 games of the season extrapolated out to 162:

Johan Santana: 220 IP, 18-9, 216 Hits, 3.41 ERA, 36 HR, 195 Ks, 51 BBs, 1.203 WHIP, 3.824 K/BB, 7.905 K/9, 2.068 BB/9, 1.459 HR/9.
The projections were all pretty far off. The best was the ZiPS projection: 234 IP, 18-8, 192 Hits, 3.04 ERA, 28 HR, 244 Ks, 46 BBs, 1.017 WHIP, 5.304 K/BB, 9.385 K/9, 1.769 BB/9, 1.077 HR/9.
His actual stats are much closer to his 10th percentile PECOTA projection: 187.7 IP, 13-8, 173 Hits, 3.84 ERA, 25 HR, 188 Ks, 56 BBs, 1.22 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Not very. His 1st/2nd half splits are absurd. He really cranks it up after the All-Star break.

Pedro Martinez: No sample size to work with since he just got back from his injury. We'll check back with him at the 81 game mark.

John Maine: 192 IP, 15-12, 162 Hits, 3.66 ERA, 18 HR, 162 Ks, 90 BBs, 1.313 WHIP, 1.80 K/BB, 7.594 K/9, 4.219 BB/9, 0.844 HR/9.
The projections were all around the same, around a 4.00 ERA, around 7.5 K/9. The ERAs were off, and the HRs were off, but all in all, not bad work.
His actual stats are closer to his 75th percentile PECOTA projections, although his strikeouts and walks are off: 161.2 IP, 11-6, 144 Hits, 3.49 ERA, 17 HR, 142 Ks, 61 BBs, 1.27 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9.
Am I concerned? A little bit. He has been better in the first half than in the second over the course of his career.

Oliver Perez: 179 IP, 12-9, 150 Hits, 4.83 ERA, 27 HR, 150 Ks, 123 BBs, 1.525 WHIP, 1.22 K/BB, 7.542 K/9, 6.184 BB/9, 1.358 HR/9.
Marcel and Bill James were excellent. Both have him at around a .500 record, a 4.50+ ERA, and a 1.43+ WHIP. Well done.
His actual stats are virtually identical to his 40th percentile PECOTA projection with a few more walks: 133.2 IP, 8-8, 128 Hits, 4.83 ERA, 18 HR, 127 Ks, 66 BB, 1.45 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Yes. These stats don't include his start on Monday against the Giants (who can't hit a lick), in which he gave up 6 ER in 0.1 innings.

Mike Pelfrey: 168 IP, 6-18, 210 Hits, 4.98 ERA, 12 HR, 87 Ks, 75 BBs, 1.696 WHIP, 1.16 K/BB, 4.661 K/9, 4.018 BB/9, 0.643 HR/9.
Marcel and PECOTA were spot on. Both had him below .500, an ERA over 4.50, and a WHIP around 1.50. They also projected few strikeouts and home runs, although not quite as few as he's actually had.
His actual stats are close to his 25th percentile PECOTA projection: 123 IP, 7-8, 137 Hits, 5.25 ERA, 13 HR, 77 Ks, 61 BBs, 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Yeah! But it's not his fault. The Mets need to play better defense. Castillo's knees need to be healthy, Reyes needs to routinely make routine plays, and Wright just needs to get a bit sharper. Then all of those Pelfrey grounders will get gobbled up instead of going for hits.

The sample size is still too small for the relievers and bench players. Maybe I'll do them at the 81 game mark. Onto the hitters:

Brian Schneider: 408 PA, 27 Runs, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 0 SB, 39 BBs, 60 Ks, .258 BA, .328 OBP, .317 SLG, .645 OPS.
All the projections are close. They all have him at around .250 with a .640 to .690 OPS with 5-7 HR and 40-60 RBI.
His actual stats are pretty close to his 75th percentile PECOTA projection, minus a few extra base hits: 34 Runs, 5 HR, 33 RBI, .260/.339/.376/.715.
Am I concerned? A little bit. I think with a healthy Ramon Castro backing him up and even pressuring him to perform, Schneider will pick up the pace somewhat.

Carlos Delgado: 654 PA, 75 Runs, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB, 66 BBs, 132 Ks, .228 BA, .307 OBP, .389 SLG, .696 OPS.
Everybody was off on this one. Nobody realized that last season's decline was real. It's really sad to see.
His actual power numbers are in line with his 75th percentile PECOTA projection: 22 HR, 77 RBI, 64 Runs, 48 BBs. But his rate stats are more in line with his 10th percentile: .229/.302/.397/.699.
Am I concerned? Who wouldn't be? He has sparks of brilliance, and he can get hot, but he's just not hitting with any consistency. This might be the end.

Luis Castillo: 567 PA, 81 Runs, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 27 SB, 81 BBs, 42 Ks, .274 BA, .384 OBP, .376 SLG, .760 OPS.
Everybody was off, but not as badly as for Delgado. Nobody expected Castillo to hit more than a homer or two. Everyone overshot his batting average, projecting around .290, but also no one expected him to walk so much.
His actual stats are very close to his 90th percentile PECOTA projection, believe it or not: 100 Runs, 0 HR, 40 RBI, 19 SB, 63 BBs, 43 Ks, .317/.391/.377/.768.
Am I concerned? I don't see much that is concerning. His batting average is down because he is really not swinging early in the count at hittable pitches. He is being extremely patient at the plate and trying extra hard to draw that walk. I would say that's not a bad strategy with Wright, Beltran, and Church hitting behind him.

Jose Reyes: 747 PA, 102 Runs, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 51 SB, 69 BBs, 99 Ks, .282 BA, .346 OBP, .477 SLG, .823 OPS.
Basically everyone had pretty similar projections and were also off, a la Luis Castillo. They pretty much nailed his batting average (all around .290), but they underestimated his power. They all had his SLG around .440.
His actual stats are right in line with his 75th percentile PECOTA projection minus a few hits: 113 Runs, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 61 SB, 57 BBs, 69 Ks, .308/.369/.483/.852.
Am I concerned? No. His early season struggles seem to have corrected themselves and he has begun driving the ball with authority to all parts of the yard. He's no longer getting fooled and popping the ball up to the opposite field. He needs to just keep it going and not wear down.

David Wright: 747 PA, 108 Runs, 33 HR, 120 RBI, 21 SB, 108 BBs, 117 Ks, .284 BA, .390 OBP, .531 SLG, .921 OPS.
Marcel and PECOTA really hit the bulls-eye here. They all have his batting average climbing over .300, and I fully expect that to occur. His second half last year was far better than his first.
His actual stats are very close to his 40th percentile PECOTA projection: 103 Runs, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 20 SB, 78 BBs, 104 Ks, .299/.388/.526/.914.
Am I concerned? Nope. David's really been hitting the ball hard all year. As I expected, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is around 40 points below what it should be. His Line-Drive percentage is a robust 23.5%, which should translate to a .355 BABIP, but his is sitting at .310 currently. It's only a matter of time until those line drives start falling in for hits and his stats rise accordingly.

Carlos Beltran: 705 PA, 114 Runs, 15 HR, 96 RBI, 21 SB, 105 BBs, 108 Ks, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .444 SLG, .814 OPS.
Blah blah blah, the projections are all the same again. Everyone's basically exactly right except on the home runs and walks. In fact, it seems like Beltran's missing home runs all turned into walks.
His actual stats are unlike any of the PECOTA projections. Man, he really is having a bizarre season. His power has just disappeared. He's turned into Luis Castillo on steroids. He's walking like crazy, but is on pace to have fewer home runs than his 10th percentile PECOTA. WTF is going on??
Am I concerned? I don't even know! Those extra walks are pretty freakin' valuable though, if you ask me.

Ryan Church: 561 PA, 102 Runs, 27 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB, 51 BBs, 120 Ks, .309 BA, .376 OBP, .527 SLG, .903 OPS.
Man, Churchie is just destroying the projections, isn't he? Nobody had him batting higher than .274, OBPing more than .353, or slugging higher than .472.
His actual stats are right around his 90th percentile PECOTA projection: 83 Runs, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, 57 BBs, 109 Ks, .295/.383/.540/.923.
Am I concerned? A little bit, because of the concussion he sustained a couple of weeks ago. In his first game back he hit a home run, so that's encouraging, but we'll have to see how he does over the next couple of weeks. Either way, I don't think I've ever seen anyone consistently hit the ball as hard as Church does. The man is a living line-drive.

Final thoughts: As a whole, I think things are largely going the way they should, considering injuries to a few important pieces (Alou, El Duque, Pedro, Castro). Some more hitting should come from Beltran and a healthy Alou, and perhaps even a rejuvenated Fernando Tatis. The defense should tighten up a little bit, and with Pedro back, the pitching should be in better shape. We'll check back at the half.