Man, it's been a while. The reason I haven't posted anything recently is that I've got two big posts in the works. One of them is a product of a brainstorm I had with my brother regarding my previous post about Ryan Braun. After transforming Braun into a superhero, it was determined that his slugging percentage against lefties in Coors Field ca. 2000 CE (Okay, here we go. So you know how people of the Christian faith count the years starting from roughly the year of Jesus's birth (give or take 3 or 4)? Well, those peoples who do not believe in Jesus as the Lord are loathe to append the acronym "AD" to these years, "AD" standing for "Anno Domini," The Year of Our Lord (Jesus). However, we of the Mosaic faith struggle daily to be part of the modern world, and going around saying that it's 5768 would make us look like raving zealots. So instead we append "BCE" and "CE" to the Christian year to stand for "(Before the) Common Era." Now, I don't think this has quite the same ring as "Anno Domini," so I suggest using the latin translation of "Common Era." Presenting my next idiotic contribution to the world, "Communis Aetas." ) exceeded 1.000. Another words, the average at-bat for Braun under those circumstances produced a little more than a single. My assertion is that it would make more sense to intentionally walk Braun every single time he comes to the plate under those circumstances, thereby assuring that Braun only gets one base (and can't advance any other base runners more than one base). Now, in an effort to expand this analysis, I attempted to download a spreadsheet with player platoon splits from 2007 (a platoon split is a player's statistics against pitchers of different handedness). Sadly, this data was not available to me online, so I had to send an e-mail out to my good friend Joe Sheehan at baseballprospectus.com. He hasn't gotten back to me yet, but I'm still hopeful. Anyway, once I get the data you can expect a big post. Who's excited?
The second post is the reason for the title of this one. Many of you might know of the handful of items that make it onto my list of favorite things. The list is currently populated by 4 things:
1. Binoculars: Is there anything they can't do? They are so versatile. For an astronomy enthusiast such as myself, they can be used for a bit of amateur star-gazing. Needless to say, binoculars appeal to the pervert in all of us. Honestly, how many times have you been walking around or sitting somewhere and you wished you had a pair of binoculars with you? I rest my case.
2. Juice Boxes: Come on, what reminds you of your childhood more than juice boxes? This is the real reason why I give blood; they always have juice boxes on the table o' food afterwards. Is there a more quality item than the plastic bendy straw that comes attached to the juice box? And remember those Richard Lewis commercials for BoKu, the "adult" juice box? If that's not a ringing endorsement of a product then I don't know what is.
3. Trampolines: Can you envision a scenario in which you are not smiling or laughing on a trampoline? I mean you might as well rename the trampoline "the happy machine," because it's impossible to not have fun on one. It's like the parfait discussion that Donkey has with himself in the first Shrek movie; just replace every instance of the word "parfait" with trampoline (and add in an article or two and change some verbs): "You know what else everybody likes? Trampolines. Have you ever met a person, you say, 'Let's try that trampoline,' they say, 'No, I don't like trampolines?' "
4. Crayons: Writing implements made out of wax. Brilliant. Clean. Colorful. Perfect. If I could write in crayon while maintaining my unblemished record of moral and professional integrity, sign me up. If I had to draw a picture of my childood, I would take a bunch of crayons and draw a juice box happily sitting next to a box of 64 Crayola crayons. You know, the one with the crayon sharpener in the back.
Now, I recently got into a discussion with a friend about the relative merits of crayons over markers or vice versa. The pressure to co-author a post detailing this comparison proved to be too much for her, but she has agreed to offer her input, so for that I thank her.
Stay tuned for these exciting posts and more.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Thursday, March 13, 2008
New Line of Work
Since I'm bored at work today, and since I'm somewhat on the prowl for a new job, I thought I'd explore my talents in other areas. Today I'm going to try my hand at wizardry. For my first trick, I'm going to take your average, everyday Rookie of the Year, and transform him into Babe Ruth before your very eyes. Now the reason I chose to use Ryan Braun for my magic trick is because Baseball Prospectus looked at his splits from last season. I didn't even realize until I read the article how much he destroyed left-handed pitchers. So one thing led to another, and before I knew it, I had filled a spreadsheet with data. Now, the calculations I did would have looked even more insane had I done my Ruthian transformation on Babe Ruth himself... okay, I'll get to that in a minute. Meanwhile, check out how I changed the Hebrew Hammer (or as BP calls him, the Scourge of Southpaws) into the Sultan of Swat:
First I looked at his splits from last season:
Against RHP: 364 PA, .282 BA, .319 OBP, .526 SLG, .845 OPS, 19 HR, 18 2B, 4 3B, 62 RBI
Against LHP: 128 PA, .450 BA, .516 OBP, .964 SLG, 1.480 OPS, 15 HR, 8 2B, 2 3B, 35 RBI
Those numbers against lefties raised a few eyebrows. Then I decided to have some fun. I did the same thing with Ryan Church in a previous post ("Church v. Hunter," from November 30, 2007); I expanded his numbers against lefties to the full season. Last year, Ryan Braun had 492 plate appearances. Here's how they would have looked if they were all against lefties:
492 PA, .450 BA, .516 OBP, .964 SLG, 1.480 OPS, 192 Hits, 58 HR, 31 2B, 8 3B, 135 RBI
That would probably be the greatest offensive season of all time. Now, let's have some real fun. Baseball-Reference has a tool that allows you to see how a player would perform under different circumstances. The two free options are to see the stats were the player to play in an extreme pitcher-friendly environment, Dodger Stadium in 1968, or in an extreme hitter-friendly environment, Coors Field in 2000. Here's how Braun's 2007 would have looked had he played all 113 of his games at Coors in 2000:
481 AB, .366 BA, .414 OBP, .715 SLG, 1.129 OPS, 176 Hits, 31 2B, 7 3B, 41 HR, 128 RBI.
That looks like an MVP season to me. But wait, there's a lot more. What would happen if those stats were expanded to a full 162 game season:
689 AB, .366/.414/.715/1.129, 252 Hits, 59 HR, 44 2B, 10 3B, 184 RBI.
Again, that would be one of the best seasons of all time, among the top three seasons of hits, extra-base hits, total bases, and RBI.
Finally, let's complete the transformation and look at Braun's stats in 2000 at Coors Field were he to have every one of those at-bats against lefties:
689 AB, .509 BA, .577 OBP, 1.087 SLG, 1.665 OPS, 351 Hits, 107 HR, 54 2B, 13 3B, 272 RBI.
Tada!!! Wow. That's actually double what a fairly normal MVP season would be. That was a lot of fun.
I would LOVE to do the same thing for Babe Ruth, but unfortunately baseball-reference.com doesn't have splits that go back that far. But in case you were curious, I'll put his stats from his best seasons and for his career were they all to take place at Coors in 2000:
1921: 601 AB, .408 BA, .544 OBP, .913 SLG, 1.457 OPS, 245 Hits, 71 HR, 53 2B, 19 3B, 217 RBI
1927: 605 AB, .398 BA, .532 OBP, .863 SLG, 1.395 OPS, 241 Hits, 75 HR, 36 2B, 10 3B, 225 RBI
Career: 9608 AB, .386 BA, .521 OBP, .776 SLG, 1.297 OPS, 3712 Hits, 908 HR, 662 2B, 181 3B, 3133 RBI.
Terrifying.
First I looked at his splits from last season:
Against RHP: 364 PA, .282 BA, .319 OBP, .526 SLG, .845 OPS, 19 HR, 18 2B, 4 3B, 62 RBI
Against LHP: 128 PA, .450 BA, .516 OBP, .964 SLG, 1.480 OPS, 15 HR, 8 2B, 2 3B, 35 RBI
Those numbers against lefties raised a few eyebrows. Then I decided to have some fun. I did the same thing with Ryan Church in a previous post ("Church v. Hunter," from November 30, 2007); I expanded his numbers against lefties to the full season. Last year, Ryan Braun had 492 plate appearances. Here's how they would have looked if they were all against lefties:
492 PA, .450 BA, .516 OBP, .964 SLG, 1.480 OPS, 192 Hits, 58 HR, 31 2B, 8 3B, 135 RBI
That would probably be the greatest offensive season of all time. Now, let's have some real fun. Baseball-Reference has a tool that allows you to see how a player would perform under different circumstances. The two free options are to see the stats were the player to play in an extreme pitcher-friendly environment, Dodger Stadium in 1968, or in an extreme hitter-friendly environment, Coors Field in 2000. Here's how Braun's 2007 would have looked had he played all 113 of his games at Coors in 2000:
481 AB, .366 BA, .414 OBP, .715 SLG, 1.129 OPS, 176 Hits, 31 2B, 7 3B, 41 HR, 128 RBI.
That looks like an MVP season to me. But wait, there's a lot more. What would happen if those stats were expanded to a full 162 game season:
689 AB, .366/.414/.715/1.129, 252 Hits, 59 HR, 44 2B, 10 3B, 184 RBI.
Again, that would be one of the best seasons of all time, among the top three seasons of hits, extra-base hits, total bases, and RBI.
Finally, let's complete the transformation and look at Braun's stats in 2000 at Coors Field were he to have every one of those at-bats against lefties:
689 AB, .509 BA, .577 OBP, 1.087 SLG, 1.665 OPS, 351 Hits, 107 HR, 54 2B, 13 3B, 272 RBI.
Tada!!! Wow. That's actually double what a fairly normal MVP season would be. That was a lot of fun.
I would LOVE to do the same thing for Babe Ruth, but unfortunately baseball-reference.com doesn't have splits that go back that far. But in case you were curious, I'll put his stats from his best seasons and for his career were they all to take place at Coors in 2000:
1921: 601 AB, .408 BA, .544 OBP, .913 SLG, 1.457 OPS, 245 Hits, 71 HR, 53 2B, 19 3B, 217 RBI
1927: 605 AB, .398 BA, .532 OBP, .863 SLG, 1.395 OPS, 241 Hits, 75 HR, 36 2B, 10 3B, 225 RBI
Career: 9608 AB, .386 BA, .521 OBP, .776 SLG, 1.297 OPS, 3712 Hits, 908 HR, 662 2B, 181 3B, 3133 RBI.
Terrifying.
Friday, March 07, 2008
The More Things Change... (aka That Guy Redux)
Remember one of my very first posts entitled "That Guy?" Well, it's very short az I'll just paste it here for your reading pleasure:
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
That Guy
So, you know how sometimes people say things like, "Don't be that guy!" Well, I was just "that guy." I was paying to go over the George Washington Bridge, and I gave the nice lady $6. I then sat there for about 30 seconds waiting for change. "Schmutter, don't be that guy." I've spent a good portion of my life trying to NOT be that guy, but I was tonight. I feel like I've failed some of you out there. Next time you see me, flick my ear.
end
Anyway, I was That Guy again last night. Let's start at the beginning. I went to a book signing at the Barnes & Noble on 18th Street and 5th Avenue last night. Four of the Baseball Prospectus guys came to sign and speak about their new annual Baseball Prospectus 2008. I especially excited to meet Joe Sheehan because I like his work on baseballanalysts.com in addition to his regular work on Baseball Prospectus. Anyway, they were pretty much just normal guys. Joe was the balding funny guy; Jay Jaffe and Steven Goldman reminded me of the Jeff Goldblum and Wayne Knight characters from Jurassic Park; and Derek Jacques was like a slightly flamboyant, Indian college professor. They were terrific. Az the 40 or 50 of us are hanging out, talking baseball for almost two hours, and then we went up to get our books signed. So while Joe is signing my book I tell him that I like his work on baseballanalysts.com a lot. So he says "that's a different Joe Sheehan. I've read some of his stuff and he's way smarter than I am." Now I feel like an idiot, so I try to salvage my dignity by trying to be funny. "Oh man! I can't believe I was just That Guy! I guess it's alright; you probably get it all the time," I said. His reply: "nope, this was the first time." Now I'm horrified: "I'm the ORIGINAL That Guy?! Ohmygod!" It wasn't very pretty. As I said in my old post, I've spent most of my life trying to avoid being that guy. The tolls on the bridge might have changed, but clearly I haven't very much. Anyway, there's still some small part of me that's hoping that Joe really is the same guy and he just has an alter-ego. Aside from that it was a very pleasant experience.
I started reading Baseball Prospectus 2008, and this morning on the subway I had a bit of a brainstorm. In the book, they make a big deal out of platoon splits, the disparity in how players perform against lefties and righties. For those who don't know, right handed hitters generally do better against left handed pitchers and vice versa. The disparity is very pronounced for left-handed batters. It's for this reason that switch-hitters are highly valuable in baseball today. Now, there have been only a handful of pitchers who pitched with both hands; baseball-reference.com lists only six, and only one in the last 99 years. But what if aspiring hurlers trained themselves to be able to pitch from both sides? That would potentially eliminate the hitters' platoon advantage. Then I started thinking what would happen if a switch-pitcher faced a switch-hitter? Would they both keep switching their positions in the batter's box/pitching rubber until the umpire forced the pitcher to throw? Can you imagine how comical it would be to watch the pitcher and the hitter dance around trying to get the advantage? I envision a lot of balks (illegal activity by the pitcher. See the Wikipedia entry for all examples). Anyway, it probably won't happen, but I thought it was a fun brainstorm.
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
That Guy
So, you know how sometimes people say things like, "Don't be that guy!" Well, I was just "that guy." I was paying to go over the George Washington Bridge, and I gave the nice lady $6. I then sat there for about 30 seconds waiting for change. "Schmutter, don't be that guy." I've spent a good portion of my life trying to NOT be that guy, but I was tonight. I feel like I've failed some of you out there. Next time you see me, flick my ear.
end
Anyway, I was That Guy again last night. Let's start at the beginning. I went to a book signing at the Barnes & Noble on 18th Street and 5th Avenue last night. Four of the Baseball Prospectus guys came to sign and speak about their new annual Baseball Prospectus 2008. I especially excited to meet Joe Sheehan because I like his work on baseballanalysts.com in addition to his regular work on Baseball Prospectus. Anyway, they were pretty much just normal guys. Joe was the balding funny guy; Jay Jaffe and Steven Goldman reminded me of the Jeff Goldblum and Wayne Knight characters from Jurassic Park; and Derek Jacques was like a slightly flamboyant, Indian college professor. They were terrific. Az the 40 or 50 of us are hanging out, talking baseball for almost two hours, and then we went up to get our books signed. So while Joe is signing my book I tell him that I like his work on baseballanalysts.com a lot. So he says "that's a different Joe Sheehan. I've read some of his stuff and he's way smarter than I am." Now I feel like an idiot, so I try to salvage my dignity by trying to be funny. "Oh man! I can't believe I was just That Guy! I guess it's alright; you probably get it all the time," I said. His reply: "nope, this was the first time." Now I'm horrified: "I'm the ORIGINAL That Guy?! Ohmygod!" It wasn't very pretty. As I said in my old post, I've spent most of my life trying to avoid being that guy. The tolls on the bridge might have changed, but clearly I haven't very much. Anyway, there's still some small part of me that's hoping that Joe really is the same guy and he just has an alter-ego. Aside from that it was a very pleasant experience.
I started reading Baseball Prospectus 2008, and this morning on the subway I had a bit of a brainstorm. In the book, they make a big deal out of platoon splits, the disparity in how players perform against lefties and righties. For those who don't know, right handed hitters generally do better against left handed pitchers and vice versa. The disparity is very pronounced for left-handed batters. It's for this reason that switch-hitters are highly valuable in baseball today. Now, there have been only a handful of pitchers who pitched with both hands; baseball-reference.com lists only six, and only one in the last 99 years. But what if aspiring hurlers trained themselves to be able to pitch from both sides? That would potentially eliminate the hitters' platoon advantage. Then I started thinking what would happen if a switch-pitcher faced a switch-hitter? Would they both keep switching their positions in the batter's box/pitching rubber until the umpire forced the pitcher to throw? Can you imagine how comical it would be to watch the pitcher and the hitter dance around trying to get the advantage? I envision a lot of balks (illegal activity by the pitcher. See the Wikipedia entry for all examples). Anyway, it probably won't happen, but I thought it was a fun brainstorm.
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Recap
Well, it's been quite an interesting journey these last few days. There were many highlights:
I went to dinner on Sunday night with my parents, my brother, and his wife and baby. Aside from the fact that I had the biggest steak of my life (I'm still digesting it 38 hours later), there was one moment that went largely unnoticed. We were sitting around the table and my brother said something like "Noah, of course I love you unconditionally because you're my brother, but aside from that I really do like you; you're a good person." It was entirely unnecessary, didn't need to take place, but it was not unappreciated. Thank you. You are a big part of what I am today.
I saw many of you last night at dinner. I'm sure it was difficult for some of you to make it out on a weeknight at that hour, so thank you all for coming. I was overwhelmed, even humbled, and that is a rare thing. Sometimes I'll walk out of a packed synagogue on Friday night and someone will say "big crowd this shabbos; it's a little overwhelming," and usually I'll say something like "I thought it was underwhelming." Mobs of people hanging out at Post-Davening-Mt. Sinai-Sponsored-Schmoozing-Time doesn't really impress me that much. In fact, I tend to thrive on those situations. But last night was a different animal altogether. After most of the people had left I was pacing around the back of the restaurant feeling exhausted but wired. I couldn't sit down because I was so fidgety. One of my friends commented that she had never seen me like that before. I don't know what that feeling was, or what it continues to be, but I imagine it can't be bad. So for all of you who participated in my birthday, thank you for making it my best one ever.
For those of you who read my post yesterday and expressed their concern, I think the events of the last few days should put those worries to rest. I don't even know why anyone was concerned in the first place; that story took place EIGHT YEARS ago! I think the reason why I reacted so strongly that night was that it was a time of transition for me. Until that summer I was an awkward, nerdy, goody two-shoes (still am). After that summer I was more self-confident, sophisticated, funny, etc. I guess I expected for people to have a newfound respect for me, but apparently you can't earn that sort of thing in only a few months. Either way, most of the people from high school, as I realized later on, weren't really the kind of people whose respect I needed, at least at that point. I should have realized that the 10-15 close friends I had were more than enough. I would take their friendship over the respect of my 85 other classmates every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Needless to say, anyone who knows me now will agree that I can confidently assert that I'm quite well adjusted, so don't worry. Anyway, I was told that I should put a warning on top if I'm ever going to write something sad, so I'll be sure to do that in the future.
My brother called me up yesterday, presumably to tell me where my car was (he had to borrow it for work). But he also informed me that today is National Grammar Day. I was SO excited. In honor of National Grammar Day, I leave you with some grammatically complex sentences. Enjoy:
1. The problem is, is he can't do it.
2. I don't know what you're talking about.
3. Someone forgot their shoes.
4. ...to boldly go where no man has gone before.
5. Who is it? It is I.
I went to dinner on Sunday night with my parents, my brother, and his wife and baby. Aside from the fact that I had the biggest steak of my life (I'm still digesting it 38 hours later), there was one moment that went largely unnoticed. We were sitting around the table and my brother said something like "Noah, of course I love you unconditionally because you're my brother, but aside from that I really do like you; you're a good person." It was entirely unnecessary, didn't need to take place, but it was not unappreciated. Thank you. You are a big part of what I am today.
I saw many of you last night at dinner. I'm sure it was difficult for some of you to make it out on a weeknight at that hour, so thank you all for coming. I was overwhelmed, even humbled, and that is a rare thing. Sometimes I'll walk out of a packed synagogue on Friday night and someone will say "big crowd this shabbos; it's a little overwhelming," and usually I'll say something like "I thought it was underwhelming." Mobs of people hanging out at Post-Davening-Mt. Sinai-Sponsored-Schmoozing-Time doesn't really impress me that much. In fact, I tend to thrive on those situations. But last night was a different animal altogether. After most of the people had left I was pacing around the back of the restaurant feeling exhausted but wired. I couldn't sit down because I was so fidgety. One of my friends commented that she had never seen me like that before. I don't know what that feeling was, or what it continues to be, but I imagine it can't be bad. So for all of you who participated in my birthday, thank you for making it my best one ever.
For those of you who read my post yesterday and expressed their concern, I think the events of the last few days should put those worries to rest. I don't even know why anyone was concerned in the first place; that story took place EIGHT YEARS ago! I think the reason why I reacted so strongly that night was that it was a time of transition for me. Until that summer I was an awkward, nerdy, goody two-shoes (still am). After that summer I was more self-confident, sophisticated, funny, etc. I guess I expected for people to have a newfound respect for me, but apparently you can't earn that sort of thing in only a few months. Either way, most of the people from high school, as I realized later on, weren't really the kind of people whose respect I needed, at least at that point. I should have realized that the 10-15 close friends I had were more than enough. I would take their friendship over the respect of my 85 other classmates every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Needless to say, anyone who knows me now will agree that I can confidently assert that I'm quite well adjusted, so don't worry. Anyway, I was told that I should put a warning on top if I'm ever going to write something sad, so I'll be sure to do that in the future.
My brother called me up yesterday, presumably to tell me where my car was (he had to borrow it for work). But he also informed me that today is National Grammar Day. I was SO excited. In honor of National Grammar Day, I leave you with some grammatically complex sentences. Enjoy:
1. The problem is, is he can't do it.
2. I don't know what you're talking about.
3. Someone forgot their shoes.
4. ...to boldly go where no man has gone before.
5. Who is it? It is I.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Birthday Blog
Okay, let's just get it over with. It's my birthday. Yay. I guess I couldn't really call it a coincidence, but today is merely the time when the Earth happens to be in the exact same location in its journey around the sun as it was on the day I was born. Otherwise it's just an ordinary day. Don't take that to mean that I don't appreciate all the birthday wishes I've received. Keep them coming! Just to let you know how much I appreciate them and I guess to let some of you inside my head, I want to share a very personal story:
In 11th grade, Ramaz took all of us on "Junior Retreat," a weekend getaway, which was designed to strengthen the bonds of our friendship before we began to seek our own fortunes out in the real world. They had a ropes course, various sporting events, and a beautiful Shabbat planned. I remember an awesome game of tackle football that we played in the snow. I remember my friend breaking his knee on a tackle and then intercepting the very next pass and returning it for a touchdown. There were some great times.
After Shabbos, some students prepared a slide-show, which had pictures of us from school. You know, there were pictures of us talking, and hanging out, maybe doing funny things, etc. And as we were all watching the show, we would applaud for the people in each picture to varying degrees. Out of the 100 or so pictures, there might have been one or two of me, and to my chagrin, I received very little applause. Now don't get me wrong, I have great friends from high school, and we're all still close, but I was really sad that I hadn't had enough of an effect on the rest of my class throughout the years to garner more than a few claps.
After the event, before we went to bed, I laid out on the grass outside of our bunk. It was cold and beautiful outside; the sky was cloudless and I could see a million stars. And on that night I cried. I wept uncontrollably for what seemed like forever. I cried to G-d, and I cried to my mother, and I'm crying now just remembering it. Here I am, sitting at my desk, and I'm crying. For every birthday wish I received last night and so far today, I shed a tear to erase the ones from that moment on that empty field. I know that no matter what I might have felt on that cold December night, I have friends today who care about me. So again, from the bottom of my heart, I thank you for your wishes.
Just as an aside, no fewer than three people told me this weekend that they missed me over Shabbos. They said it felt strange when they looked over to my seat in synagogue and didn't see me there. That meant a lot to me too. Look how far I've come.
Okay, so you ever hear that math problem that asks how many people you need in a room to have a reasonable chance of two of them having the same birthday? Well, most people seem shocked that the answer is only 23. In case anyone is interested, here's how it's done:
First, understand that the easiest way to determine the probability of two people having the same birthday in a room of N people, is to figure out the probability of everyone having a different birthday and then subtracting that probability from 100%, okay? It should make sense that there are two options: a) everyone has a different birthday, or b) some people have the same birthday. The probability of one plus the probability of the other equals 100%. Great.
The probability of the only two people in the room having different birthdays is (1-(1/365)). Very high. The probability of all three people in the room having the different birthdays is (1-(1/365)) x (1-(2/365)). You might see a pattern developing. The general formula for the probability of all N people in the room having a different birthday (assuming there are fewer than 365 people in the room) is: 365! / ((365^N)(365-N))!
The exclamation point is the symbol for the "factorial" function, which means you multiply the number by each integer below it until you get to one (ex: 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120)
Great, so the probability of any of N people in a room having the SAME birthday comes out to 1 - (365! / ((365^N)(365-N))!). Now all you have to do is plug in your number for N, the amount of people in the room. For N = 23, the probability is about 50.7%. Just for argument's sake, if you have 100 people in a room, the probability that two people have the same birthday is around 99.99996%.
Excellent! Now, in case you were curious, if you wanted to figure out the probability of someone having the same birthday as you, that's a different problem. That's the same thing as asking what's the probability of two people having a specific birthday, whereas the previous problem doesn't care about which date the people share. The formula for the probability of someone in a room of N people having the same birthday as you is: 1 - ((365-1)/365)^N. In order for there to be a greater than 50% chance of someone having the same birthday as you, there needs to be 253 other people in the room.
Okay, that's the end of today's math lesson (thanks to wikipedia for all the info).
I went on facebook last night to check out the myriad wall posts I received, and I noticed that on the top of the page it has a little birthday box. It says something like "Happy Birthday, Noah! From all of us on The Facebook Team, have a great day!" You know what? That's really nice. It's unnecessary and quite meaningless, but still.
Since I absolutely could not fall asleep last night, I found myself watching last year's World Series of Poker on ESPN2 at about 1:30 am. At that hour you see the most random commercials. One of them was for a TimeLife series of CDs called "I Can Only Imagine." It's a collection of 22 Christian faith songs. The first thing I thought was that was the most ridiculous thing I had ever seen (one of the songs was actually called "Kel Shakkai," except with the real words, without the "K" and "dd" instead of "kk"), except then I realized that I basically listen to the exact same kind of music only in Hebrew. I can only imagine what people think of my taste in music.
I went to KJ for Seudah Shlishit, and they had a presentation of several Ramaz students who had gone to York, Pennsylvania for a few days to volunteer for a project called Habitat for Humanity, in which they helped other volunteers build houses for people who lost theirs for varying reasons. It was really quite nice. But the part I found noteworthy was that the students had become friends with the local Chabad Rabbi on facebook. It's ridiculous how far facebook has extended its grasp. Facebook is insane as it is right now, but can you imagine what it will be like for those high school students by the time they're our age?
Okay, I'm done. Wait, you know how when you go to a wedding or an engagement party you wish everyone there a Mazal Tov? I don't mean just to the bride and groom, but to everyone you see. What do you do at a birthday party? I think I'm gonna go ahead and wish everyone a Happy Birthday today, and I will continue to do so at other birthday parties. Az Happy Birthday everyone.
In 11th grade, Ramaz took all of us on "Junior Retreat," a weekend getaway, which was designed to strengthen the bonds of our friendship before we began to seek our own fortunes out in the real world. They had a ropes course, various sporting events, and a beautiful Shabbat planned. I remember an awesome game of tackle football that we played in the snow. I remember my friend breaking his knee on a tackle and then intercepting the very next pass and returning it for a touchdown. There were some great times.
After Shabbos, some students prepared a slide-show, which had pictures of us from school. You know, there were pictures of us talking, and hanging out, maybe doing funny things, etc. And as we were all watching the show, we would applaud for the people in each picture to varying degrees. Out of the 100 or so pictures, there might have been one or two of me, and to my chagrin, I received very little applause. Now don't get me wrong, I have great friends from high school, and we're all still close, but I was really sad that I hadn't had enough of an effect on the rest of my class throughout the years to garner more than a few claps.
After the event, before we went to bed, I laid out on the grass outside of our bunk. It was cold and beautiful outside; the sky was cloudless and I could see a million stars. And on that night I cried. I wept uncontrollably for what seemed like forever. I cried to G-d, and I cried to my mother, and I'm crying now just remembering it. Here I am, sitting at my desk, and I'm crying. For every birthday wish I received last night and so far today, I shed a tear to erase the ones from that moment on that empty field. I know that no matter what I might have felt on that cold December night, I have friends today who care about me. So again, from the bottom of my heart, I thank you for your wishes.
Just as an aside, no fewer than three people told me this weekend that they missed me over Shabbos. They said it felt strange when they looked over to my seat in synagogue and didn't see me there. That meant a lot to me too. Look how far I've come.
Okay, so you ever hear that math problem that asks how many people you need in a room to have a reasonable chance of two of them having the same birthday? Well, most people seem shocked that the answer is only 23. In case anyone is interested, here's how it's done:
First, understand that the easiest way to determine the probability of two people having the same birthday in a room of N people, is to figure out the probability of everyone having a different birthday and then subtracting that probability from 100%, okay? It should make sense that there are two options: a) everyone has a different birthday, or b) some people have the same birthday. The probability of one plus the probability of the other equals 100%. Great.
The probability of the only two people in the room having different birthdays is (1-(1/365)). Very high. The probability of all three people in the room having the different birthdays is (1-(1/365)) x (1-(2/365)). You might see a pattern developing. The general formula for the probability of all N people in the room having a different birthday (assuming there are fewer than 365 people in the room) is: 365! / ((365^N)(365-N))!
The exclamation point is the symbol for the "factorial" function, which means you multiply the number by each integer below it until you get to one (ex: 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120)
Great, so the probability of any of N people in a room having the SAME birthday comes out to 1 - (365! / ((365^N)(365-N))!). Now all you have to do is plug in your number for N, the amount of people in the room. For N = 23, the probability is about 50.7%. Just for argument's sake, if you have 100 people in a room, the probability that two people have the same birthday is around 99.99996%.
Excellent! Now, in case you were curious, if you wanted to figure out the probability of someone having the same birthday as you, that's a different problem. That's the same thing as asking what's the probability of two people having a specific birthday, whereas the previous problem doesn't care about which date the people share. The formula for the probability of someone in a room of N people having the same birthday as you is: 1 - ((365-1)/365)^N. In order for there to be a greater than 50% chance of someone having the same birthday as you, there needs to be 253 other people in the room.
Okay, that's the end of today's math lesson (thanks to wikipedia for all the info).
I went on facebook last night to check out the myriad wall posts I received, and I noticed that on the top of the page it has a little birthday box. It says something like "Happy Birthday, Noah! From all of us on The Facebook Team, have a great day!" You know what? That's really nice. It's unnecessary and quite meaningless, but still.
Since I absolutely could not fall asleep last night, I found myself watching last year's World Series of Poker on ESPN2 at about 1:30 am. At that hour you see the most random commercials. One of them was for a TimeLife series of CDs called "I Can Only Imagine." It's a collection of 22 Christian faith songs. The first thing I thought was that was the most ridiculous thing I had ever seen (one of the songs was actually called "Kel Shakkai," except with the real words, without the "K" and "dd" instead of "kk"), except then I realized that I basically listen to the exact same kind of music only in Hebrew. I can only imagine what people think of my taste in music.
I went to KJ for Seudah Shlishit, and they had a presentation of several Ramaz students who had gone to York, Pennsylvania for a few days to volunteer for a project called Habitat for Humanity, in which they helped other volunteers build houses for people who lost theirs for varying reasons. It was really quite nice. But the part I found noteworthy was that the students had become friends with the local Chabad Rabbi on facebook. It's ridiculous how far facebook has extended its grasp. Facebook is insane as it is right now, but can you imagine what it will be like for those high school students by the time they're our age?
Okay, I'm done. Wait, you know how when you go to a wedding or an engagement party you wish everyone there a Mazal Tov? I don't mean just to the bride and groom, but to everyone you see. What do you do at a birthday party? I think I'm gonna go ahead and wish everyone a Happy Birthday today, and I will continue to do so at other birthday parties. Az Happy Birthday everyone.
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