I'm listening to the Max Kellerman show on 1050 ESPN Radio, and one thing he likes to do is these live commercials. He does live commercials for Dr. Modell's laser eye surgery, and for Car-cash, and a few other things. Recently he started doing one for this baseball drills video for kids. And each time he says something like "this product is so effective because it turns those boring old drills into a game, and it's the game that kids love, not the drills." Normally, Max, I agree with you, but not in this case. I think baseball drills are TONS of fun. What could possibly be boring about batting practice, or shagging fly balls? Even practicing turning a run-down or a double play is fun. I dunno, maybe I just love baseball that much.
My brother sent me an interesting tidbit this morning. He directed me to a game pitched by Rick Wise on June 23rd, 1971, in which he threw a no-hitter and hit two home runs. That got me thinking about the greatest individual performances by a baseball player in a single game. I could only come up with two other examples, so I'll show them here. I want you all to vote on what you think is the best of the three performances. Enjoy:
Rick Wise: 6/23/1971: 2 for 4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (1 solo, 1 2-run), 8 TB, 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks, 0 HR, 0.11 WHIP, 89 Game Score, 0.00 ERA, Win.
Tony Cloninger: 7/3/1966: 3 for 5, 2 R, 9 RBI, 2 HR (2 grand slams), 9 TB, 9 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 Ks, 2 HR, 1.00 WHIP, 64 Game Score, 3.00 ERA, Win.
Micah Owings: 8/18/2007: 4 for 5, 4 R, 6 RBI, 2 HR (1 solo, 1 2-run), 11 TB, 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 Ks, 3 HR, 0.43 WHIP, 66 Game Score, 3.86 ERA, Win.
I like Tony, but pitchers were better hitters back then.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
I Can't Say It Any Better
I guess I've done some of this before, but never on such a magnitude. I'm actually going to paste an entire article from firejoemorgan.com. They say everything that needs to be said. I would be oveir on bal tosif were I to add anything to it. I'm gonna try to get away with this being my own post only because it seems like I will have access to the baseballprospectus.com PECOTA projections, which I will use to add into my Mets preview, so I'm gonna be working on that. Enjoy the article (bold is quoted from the New York Post, and regular is firejoemorgan. Beware a few swear words. Apologies in advance to you REAL Yankee fans):
This Is What We're Up Against
Sure, sometimes it seems like we've said everything there is to be said about EqA and VORP and why batting average and wins are for stupids. We're repetitive, redundant, reiterative, repetitious, redundant, redundant and redundant. We get it.
Then we take a step back and remember that 99.999992% of baseball fans think like the people in this article:
YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING! STUDY SAYS DEREK JETER'S THE WORST
No, nobody is kidding. This is old news, of course, to the other 0.000008% of us.
February 17, 2008 -- How's this for junk science - even with three Gold Gloves, Yankees captain Derek Jeter has been labeled the worst fielding shortstop in baseball.
I'm so happy the New York Post is out there doing its thing -- being angrily, outrageously, passionately wrong about everything. Rare is the institution you can rely on day in and day out, but you can set your watch by the Post. Whatever time the Post says, you're guaranteed to know: it's wrong. Gold Gloves are a m.-fucking joke. Although I've learned nothing yet about this junky "science" study and of course I will learn nothing further by reading the rest of the article (thank you, Post!), I already trust it infinitely more than Gold Gloves, because Gold Gloves are liars. They are no-good cheating liars, and I would not let my fictional daughter marry a Gold Glove.
But the numbers prove it, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania said yesterday at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, in (of course) Boston.
Yes, these researchers from the University of Pennsylvania meticulously altered their data, fudged everything they'd worked on for months, slandered Jeter and praised A-Rod, all because they had a meeting once in Boston. Never trust a scientist! All scientists are Sox fans! Post! Post BREAKING NEWS: SCIENCE PLAYS FOR BOSTON!
Using a complex statistical method,
for nerds with calculators and pocket protectors and Daily News subscriptions,
researchers concluded that Alex Rodriguez was one of the best shortstops in the game when he played for the Texas Rangers.
This is an interesting finding. I wish I knew more about how the study worked. Just kidding: give me what Mike Birch has to say on the matter. Mike Birch works at Lids, the hat store.
"I don't know what they're smoking down at Penn," said Yankees fan Mike Birch, 32.
Take that, complex statistical study. Birch is insightful and funny. One time he sold me a sweet lid with the Under Armor logo on it. "I don't know what they're smoking"! Classic. Classic Birch."
That's preposterous. I completely disagree. Jeter's a clutch player."
In one corner: "The method involved looking at every ball put in play in major league baseball from 2002 through 2005 and recorded where the shots went. Researchers then developed a probability model for the average fielder in each position and compared that with the performance of individual players to see who was better or worse than average."
In the other corner: Mike Birch. Watches three innings a week, occasionally while sober. Listens to Mike and the Mad Dog "except when they talk too smart and shit." Watches "Rome Is Burning" with the sound off. I.Q. of 175. Graduated from Cambridge University. Fields Medal winner. I know who I'm taking."
It's ridiculous," said fan Jay Ricker, 22. "Jeter is all-around awesome."
I agree," said Science, 424. "Fuck me, that is a good argument. I might as well not exist. That's it. I'm taking 500 Darvocets. Humans, welcome your new overlord, Jay Ricker, 22. He is all-around awesome.
"He's better than A-Rod any day. Character has a lot to do with it. He's out there for his teammates, not just himself. He does it for the good of the team. That's the kind of guy you want on the field."
Yes. You would never, ever want a guy scientifically proven to be dramatically better at fielding. That is not the kind of guy you want on a field. No fielders. Just team guys.
Ricker added that "A-Rod's only out for the money. For him it's not about baseball, it's just about banking."
Studies have shown that A-Rod is, incidentally, the league's best banker. A lot of people don't know this, but he was heavily recruited by Blackstone and Goldman coming out of high school. Jeter is genetically incapable of using an ATM; he in fact only understands those letters to be the acronym for ass to mouth.
Fans said Jeter's greatness goes beyond the numbers he produces on the field."He has intangible qualities that can't be measured with statistics," said East Village bar owner Kevin Hooshangi, 28.
Fans repeated a thing they had heard innumerable times on the TV and radio. "I can't change my mind about this," despaired Kevin Hooshangi. "My whole worldview depends on it being true. Jeter has intangibles. Jeter has intangibles. He does. He does!" Hooshangi continued to chant about Jeter, tears streaming down his face. "I know he does. He has them. Intangi...(unintelligible sobbing)..."
"He's the ultimate teammate. It doesn't matter what his percentages are when he's making big plays in big games. He's the one with four World Series rings."
Theory: Jeter wears rings on fielding hand, rendering fielding borderline impossible.
However, Frank Angelo, 50, gave A-Rod his due. "He's the best shortstop in the American League playing third base," Angelo said.
Then Angelo realized what city he lived in, and what newspaper he was talking to.
But Jeter as one of the worst?
"That's not true," Angelo said. "He's a good fielding shortstop." He even said he would keep Jeter at short. "Jeter's the captain, he was there before A-Rod," said Angelo.
By this logic, Jeter never should have taken over for Tony Fernandez. Fernandez was there before Jeter. Jeter should've had to slide over to third. But wait, Wade Boggs was at third. No go. Already there. But hey, should Boggs have even been there? No! He took over for Charlie Hayes. That never should have happened. NO ONE SHOULD HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS EVER. After the original roster of the 1903 New York Highlanders died, all baseball should have stopped being played forever. Thanks, Frank Angelo.
But as Yankee fan Brittnay Thompson, 32, said, it's about who's good in May, and who's good in October."In big situations A-Rod drops the ball, no pun intended," said Thompson.
Thompson added, "Are you awake, FJM guys? We're still out here. Morons, I mean. We totally outnumber you. We're loud, we're close-minded, and we dominate the media. We'll never stop being dumb about baseball. Never. We'll always keep the idiot ball rolling. Is that a pun? If it is, I didn't intend it."
posted by Junior # 8:09 PM
This Is What We're Up Against
Sure, sometimes it seems like we've said everything there is to be said about EqA and VORP and why batting average and wins are for stupids. We're repetitive, redundant, reiterative, repetitious, redundant, redundant and redundant. We get it.
Then we take a step back and remember that 99.999992% of baseball fans think like the people in this article:
YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING! STUDY SAYS DEREK JETER'S THE WORST
No, nobody is kidding. This is old news, of course, to the other 0.000008% of us.
February 17, 2008 -- How's this for junk science - even with three Gold Gloves, Yankees captain Derek Jeter has been labeled the worst fielding shortstop in baseball.
I'm so happy the New York Post is out there doing its thing -- being angrily, outrageously, passionately wrong about everything. Rare is the institution you can rely on day in and day out, but you can set your watch by the Post. Whatever time the Post says, you're guaranteed to know: it's wrong. Gold Gloves are a m.-fucking joke. Although I've learned nothing yet about this junky "science" study and of course I will learn nothing further by reading the rest of the article (thank you, Post!), I already trust it infinitely more than Gold Gloves, because Gold Gloves are liars. They are no-good cheating liars, and I would not let my fictional daughter marry a Gold Glove.
But the numbers prove it, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania said yesterday at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, in (of course) Boston.
Yes, these researchers from the University of Pennsylvania meticulously altered their data, fudged everything they'd worked on for months, slandered Jeter and praised A-Rod, all because they had a meeting once in Boston. Never trust a scientist! All scientists are Sox fans! Post! Post BREAKING NEWS: SCIENCE PLAYS FOR BOSTON!
Using a complex statistical method,
for nerds with calculators and pocket protectors and Daily News subscriptions,
researchers concluded that Alex Rodriguez was one of the best shortstops in the game when he played for the Texas Rangers.
This is an interesting finding. I wish I knew more about how the study worked. Just kidding: give me what Mike Birch has to say on the matter. Mike Birch works at Lids, the hat store.
"I don't know what they're smoking down at Penn," said Yankees fan Mike Birch, 32.
Take that, complex statistical study. Birch is insightful and funny. One time he sold me a sweet lid with the Under Armor logo on it. "I don't know what they're smoking"! Classic. Classic Birch."
That's preposterous. I completely disagree. Jeter's a clutch player."
In one corner: "The method involved looking at every ball put in play in major league baseball from 2002 through 2005 and recorded where the shots went. Researchers then developed a probability model for the average fielder in each position and compared that with the performance of individual players to see who was better or worse than average."
In the other corner: Mike Birch. Watches three innings a week, occasionally while sober. Listens to Mike and the Mad Dog "except when they talk too smart and shit." Watches "Rome Is Burning" with the sound off. I.Q. of 175. Graduated from Cambridge University. Fields Medal winner. I know who I'm taking."
It's ridiculous," said fan Jay Ricker, 22. "Jeter is all-around awesome."
I agree," said Science, 424. "Fuck me, that is a good argument. I might as well not exist. That's it. I'm taking 500 Darvocets. Humans, welcome your new overlord, Jay Ricker, 22. He is all-around awesome.
"He's better than A-Rod any day. Character has a lot to do with it. He's out there for his teammates, not just himself. He does it for the good of the team. That's the kind of guy you want on the field."
Yes. You would never, ever want a guy scientifically proven to be dramatically better at fielding. That is not the kind of guy you want on a field. No fielders. Just team guys.
Ricker added that "A-Rod's only out for the money. For him it's not about baseball, it's just about banking."
Studies have shown that A-Rod is, incidentally, the league's best banker. A lot of people don't know this, but he was heavily recruited by Blackstone and Goldman coming out of high school. Jeter is genetically incapable of using an ATM; he in fact only understands those letters to be the acronym for ass to mouth.
Fans said Jeter's greatness goes beyond the numbers he produces on the field."He has intangible qualities that can't be measured with statistics," said East Village bar owner Kevin Hooshangi, 28.
Fans repeated a thing they had heard innumerable times on the TV and radio. "I can't change my mind about this," despaired Kevin Hooshangi. "My whole worldview depends on it being true. Jeter has intangibles. Jeter has intangibles. He does. He does!" Hooshangi continued to chant about Jeter, tears streaming down his face. "I know he does. He has them. Intangi...(unintelligible sobbing)..."
"He's the ultimate teammate. It doesn't matter what his percentages are when he's making big plays in big games. He's the one with four World Series rings."
Theory: Jeter wears rings on fielding hand, rendering fielding borderline impossible.
However, Frank Angelo, 50, gave A-Rod his due. "He's the best shortstop in the American League playing third base," Angelo said.
Then Angelo realized what city he lived in, and what newspaper he was talking to.
But Jeter as one of the worst?
"That's not true," Angelo said. "He's a good fielding shortstop." He even said he would keep Jeter at short. "Jeter's the captain, he was there before A-Rod," said Angelo.
By this logic, Jeter never should have taken over for Tony Fernandez. Fernandez was there before Jeter. Jeter should've had to slide over to third. But wait, Wade Boggs was at third. No go. Already there. But hey, should Boggs have even been there? No! He took over for Charlie Hayes. That never should have happened. NO ONE SHOULD HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS EVER. After the original roster of the 1903 New York Highlanders died, all baseball should have stopped being played forever. Thanks, Frank Angelo.
But as Yankee fan Brittnay Thompson, 32, said, it's about who's good in May, and who's good in October."In big situations A-Rod drops the ball, no pun intended," said Thompson.
Thompson added, "Are you awake, FJM guys? We're still out here. Morons, I mean. We totally outnumber you. We're loud, we're close-minded, and we dominate the media. We'll never stop being dumb about baseball. Never. We'll always keep the idiot ball rolling. Is that a pun? If it is, I didn't intend it."
posted by Junior # 8:09 PM
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Mighty
The time between the double-whistle signifying the end of the Super Bowl and when pitchers and catchers report to spring training is one of those dead periods of the year. The only "sports" going on are "basketball" and "hockey." The other time (which admittedly is not as bad as this one) is after the NBA and NHL finals end, when the only sport being played is baseball. Those of you who watch Sportscenter on ESPN will remember this sad period from last year by these three words "Who's more now?" Hameivin yavin. Anyway, this dead time on the sports schedule provides us with an opportunity to predict and project the upcoming baseball season. Sooo... that's what I did! What did I do? Here's what I did:
As of now, there are four widely recognized, freely available lists of player projections on the internet: the CHONE projections (http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html), the Marcel projections (http://www.tangotiger.net/marcel/), the ZiPS projections (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/), and the Bill James projections (available on http://www.fangraphs.com/). As far as I know, these are the only projections out there that are based on statistical analysis and not just general estimation. I'm still unwilling to shell out the cash for a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, mostly because there's so much information available out there for free that it's just not worth it. Also, I read Joe Sheehan on Baseball Analysts anyway. The point is, I think I have enough trustworthy projections that I can survive without Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections.
Okay, so I downloaded the spreadsheets for each of those projections (Bill James is not available in spreadsheet format, so I won't be using his numbers much in my analysis. I'll mostly use him to provide credibility to the other projections), and had an awesome time fiddling around with them. I summed and averaged a bunch of the columns so that I could get league averages to which I could compare the Mets' numbers. I went to http://www.mlb.com/ and copied down the 40-man active New York Mets roster and found their relevant projected stats. Then, for each of the projections, I compared their stats to the league averages. In order to determine how good (or bad) each player was compared to the league averages, I only used rate stats. For pitchers I used ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 (CHONE projections also included Runs over Replacement, so I used that too), and for batters I used SB%, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS (ZiPS included Runs Created projections, so I used that too).
If you've gotten this far, it means that you care a lot about baseball, or about my feelings on the Mets. Or you just like me a lot. Anyway, if you've gotten this far because you care a lot about baseball, I'm going to explain how to calculate all of those stats. This is important because I had to calculate the league averages on my own. What I mean is that I didn't need to calculate David Wright's Slugging Percentage because it was given to me in the projection, but I needed to sum the necessary components of the mathematical formula so that I could calculate the league average Slugging Percentage. Anyway, I will use Marcel's Johan Santana as my example for pitchers and David Wright as my example for batters:
ERA: (Earned Runs divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (71 / 193) * 9 = 3.31
WHIP: (Walks + Runs) divided by Innings Pitched. Santana: (48 + 164) / 193 = 1.098
K/BB: Strikeouts divided by Walks. Santana: (198 / 48) = 4.125
K/9: (Strikeouts divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (198 / 193) * 9 = 9.233
BB/9: (Walks divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (48 / 193) * 9 = 2.238
HR/9: (Home Runs divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (23 / 193) * 9 = 1.073
SB%: Stolen Bases divided by (Stolen Bases + Caught Stealing). Wright: 23 / (23 + 4) = .852
BA: Hits divided by At-Bats. Wright: 170 / 539 = .315
OBP: (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) divided by (At-Bats + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Sacrifice Flies). Wright: (170 + 72 + 5) / (539 + 72 + 5 + 6) = .397
SLG: ((1 times Singles) + (2 times Doubles) + (3 times Triples) + (4 times Home Runs)) divided by At-Bats. Wright: ((1 * 106) + (2 * 38) + (3 * 2) + (4 * 24)) / 539 = .527
OPS: OBP + SLG. Wright: .397 + .527 = .924
Great! Now I'll use those numbers and compare them to the league average and come out with some new stats. I called these new stats "Plus" stats. What I did was I took David Wright's projected BA of .315 and divided it by the league projected BA of .270. Then I multiplied this by 100. (.315 / .270) * 100 = 117. I called this 117 David Wright's BA+. I did the same thing for each of the other stats (keep in mind that the OPS+ and ERA+ numbers I calculated are not the actual OPS+ and ERA+, which are real sabermetric stats that involve more complex calculations. These "Plus" stats are my own). I'll give one more example, because for some of the pitching stats it's better to be below the league average. I took Johan Santana's projected ERA of 3.31 and divided it by the league average ERA of 4.49, and subtracted the result from one. Then I multiplied that by 100 and added 100. ((1 - (3.31 / 4.49)) * 100) + 100 = 126, Santana's ERA+.
Okay, now I'm done explaining. Now I'll provide some notes on each player on the 40-man roster who I belive will get significant playing time, and then I'll give a little analysis on the team as a whole. This might be my longest post ever. Who's excited?: (Players I will not be mentioning: Adam Bostick, Willie Collazo, Ruddy Lugo, Carlos Muniz, Steven Register, Brian Stokes, Jason Vargas, Anderson Hernandez, and Angel Pagan)
Johan Santana:
Marcel: 193 IP, 3.31 ERA, 198 Ks, 1.098 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 122 WHIP+, 206 K/BB+, 139 K/9+, 133 BB/9+, 96 HR/9+.
CHONE: 212 IP, 2.50 ERA, 232 Ks, 0.948 WHIP, 60 RoR, 143 ERA+, 134 WHIP+, 298 K/BB+, 152 K/9+, 149 BB/9+, 113 HR/9+, 653 RoR+.
ZiPS: 234 IP, 3.04 ERA, 244 Ks, 1.017 WHIP, 134 ERA+, 131 WHIP+, 306 K/BB+, 156 K/9+, 145 BB/9+, 114 HR/9+.
Bill James: 216 IP, 3.00 ERA, 228 Ks, 1.069 WHIP.
Clearly Santana is an elite pitcher. Marcel is known for its conservative pitching projections, which were quite accurate last year. But even if Santana puts up those numbers, he would likely still be one of the top three pitchers in the NL. But if he manages to put up numbers like the other projections would suggest, then it will be one of the best pitching seasons we've seen in the NL in a long time. Jesus, his CHONE projections of 2.50 ERA, 0.948 WHIP and RoR+ of 653 would be absolutely absurd. I can't wait to watch him in person. As stated on The Hardball times website, "Oh, and if his price tag is really bothering any of you, think of it this way: in 2007 the Mets paid $23.25 million to Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, and Shawn Green. In 2008, they'll be paying roughly the same amount to Santana, Brian Schneider, and Ryan Church."
Pedro Martinez:
Marcel: 87 IP, 3.93 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.23 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 154 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 119 BB/9+, 110 HR/9+.
CHONE: 63 IP, 3.14 ERA, 62 Ks, 1.095 WHIP, 11 RoR, 128 ERA+, 123 WHIP+, 197 K/BB+, 137 K/9+, 130 BB/9+, 111 HR/9+, 120 RoR+.
ZiPS: 150 IP, 3.24 ERA, 145 Ks, 1.100 WHIP, 129 ERA+, 126 WHIP+, 233 K/BB+, 145 K/9+, 132 BB/9+, 123 HR/9+.
Bill James: 125 IP, 2.88 ERA, 135 Ks, 1.024 WHIP.
Pedro is an interesting variable this season. He is clearly an effective pitcher when he's healthy, but he has been anything but healthy for most of the past two seasons. The Marcel and CHONE projections are very conservative with only 87 and 63 expected Innings Pitched. I was prepared to disregard the ZiPS projection because it varied so differently from the other two, but Bill James is also optimistic about Pedro remaining healthy enough to log 100+ innings. If the Mets can get 300+ innings between Pedro and Johan this season, this will be a scary rotation.
John Maine:
Marcel: 163 IP, 4.03 ERA, 141 Ks, 1.282 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 112 K/BB+, 117 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 88 HR/9+.
CHONE: 155 IP, 3.89 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.348 WHIP, 19 RoR, 111 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 105 K/BB+, 111 K/9+, 93 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+, 207 RoR+.
ZiPS: 178 IP, 4.15 ERA, 148 Ks, 1.315 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 130 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
Bill James: 200 IP, 4.05 ERA, 169 Ks, 1.355 WHIP
All of these projections seem to think that the John Maine of the second half of last year is the real John Maine. His first half was outstanding, but he came back to Earth in the second half, allowing many more homers and walking more batters. Each projection has him walking more batters than average. He will still be an above-average pitcher, but we shouldn't expect anything spectacular out of him.
Oliver Perez:
Marcel: 160 IP, 4.50 ERA, 147 Ks, 1.438 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 98 WHIP+, 97 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 71 BB/9+, 80 HR/9+.
CHONE: 148 IP, 4.14 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.196 WHIP, 14 RoR, 105 ERA+, 116 WHIP+, 174 K/BB+, 143 K/9+, 118 BB/9+, 81 HR/9+, 152 RoR+.
ZiPS: 176 IP, 4.04 ERA, 170 Ks, 1.324 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 136 K/BB+, 144 K/9+, 85 BB/9+, 98 HR/9+.
Bill James: 190 IP, 4.69 ERA, 196 Ks, 1.453 WHIP
Wow, I am surprised. Here I thought that in his third season with the Mets under pitching coach Rick Peterson that Perez was primed for a breakout season. None of the projections agree with me, however. They all think he'll walk too many guys, give up too many home runs, and allow too many baserunners. I'm going to go against the grain a bit, and say that he will have an ERA below 4.00 and be better than any of these projections claim. That's Schmutter's Bold Preseason Prediction #1.
Mike Pelfrey:
Marcel: 95 IP, 4.83 ERA, 66 Ks, 1.505 WHIP, 92 ERA+, 93 WHIP+, 79 K/BB+, 94 K/9+, 80 BB/9+, 117 HR/9+.
CHONE: 119 IP, 4.01 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.403 WHIP, 9 RoR, 108 ERA+, 102 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 119 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 119 HR/9+, 98 RoR+.
ZiPS: 150 IP, 4.86 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.487 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 99 WHP+, 87 K/BB+, 90 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 123 HR/9+.
Bill James: 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 Ks, 1.281 WHIP
There's quite a bit of disparity here among the projections; Marcel and ZiPS think Pelfrey will be below average and CHONE and James think he'll be above average. It's likely that Pelfrey will fall somewhere in between, which is just fine with me for a #5 starter. It's rare for teams to have a league-average fifth starter, az I'll take it. Pelfrey is still a relatively unknown quantity because of his limited major league experience. I'm interested in seeing how he does, especially with the knowledge that El Duque is there to steal innings from him. Speaking of which...
Orlando Hernandez:
Marcel: 148 IP, 4.50 ERA, 123 Ks, 1.358 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 103 WHIP+, 99 K/BB+, 113 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 76 HR/9+.
CHONE: 141 IP, 3.77 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.298 WHIP, 19 RoR, 114 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 124 K/BB+, 122 K/9+, 101 BB/9+, 109 HR/9+, 207 RoR+.
ZiPS: 142 IP, 4.25 ERA, 119 Ks, 1.331 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 121 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 94 HR/9+.
Bill James: 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 Ks, 1.281 WHIP.
You see, since nobody really knows how old this guy is it's hard to predict when he's going to start showing his age. Some of these guys think he's already starting to regress, and the projections reflect that. Either way, it looks like El Duque will be right around league-average or slightly above. The Mets will probably use him out of the bullpen a lot, either as a situational guy for an out or two at a time, or as a long-reliever.
Pedro Feliciano:
Marcel: 63 IP, 3.57 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.317 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 114 K/9+, 93 BB/9+, 131 HR/9+.
CHONE: 41 IP, 3.51 ERA, 35 Ks, 1.268 WHIP, 5 RoR, 120 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 135 K/BB+, 119 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 122 HR/9+, 54 RoR+.
ZiPS: 65 IP, 3.19 ERA, 58 Ks, 1.246 WHIP, 131 ERA+, 116 WHIP+, 134 K/BB+, 133 K/9+, 91 BB/9+, 145 HR/9+.
Bill James: 68 IP, 3.57 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.309 WHIP.
Feliciano will be one of the prime setup men for Billy Wagner. Willie Randolph will often bring him in to face a couple of tough lefties earlier on in the game, and also to pitch the seventh inning to get the ball to Aaron Heilman for the eighth. He is projected to have an ERA in the mid-threes and not allow terribly many base runners. He'll also strike out his share of batters. He should be a solid presence in the middle of that bullpen.
Aaron Heilman:
Marcel: 77 IP, 3.62 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.221 WHIP, 119 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 127 K/BB+, 107 K/9+, 116 BB/9+, 121 HR/9+.
CHONE: 112 IP, 3.46 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.277 WHIP, 15 RoR, 121 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 125 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 106 BB/9+, 129 HR/9+, 163 RoR+.
ZiPS: 87 IP, 3.21 ERA, 73 Ks, 1.184 WHIP, 130 ERA+, 120 WHIP+, 156 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 142 HR/9+.
Bill James: 87 IP, 3.41 ERA, 72 Ks, 1.230 WHIP.
Again, I find this surprising. Heilman has had many problems in the past, so I find it amazing that they all project him to be so effective. They think he won't walk many and give up very few home runs. I hope they're right. With Heilman, Feliciano, Sanchez, and Wagner coming out of the bullpen, a lot of these games might be over after five or six innings. That would be a huge improvement over last season.
Duaner Sanchez:
Marcel: 31 IP, 3.77 ERA, 24 Ks, 1.323 WHIP, 116 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 100 K/BB+, 105 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 116 HR/9+.
CHONE: 69 IP, 3.65 ERA, 54 Ks, 1.319 WHIP, 8 RoR, 116 ERA+, 108 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 109 K/9+, 99 BB/9+, 130 HR/9+, 87 RoR+.
ZiPS: 69 IP, 3.52 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.304 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 112 WHIP+, 113 K/BB+, 115 K/9+, 90 BB/9+, 137 HR/9+.
Bill James: 61 IP, 3.98 ERA, 45 Ks, 1.361 WHIP.
Man did we miss him last season. If it weren't for that freak traffic accident we'd have had a pretty decent bullpen. The projections say that he'll be solid coming out of the bullpen. If he can keep his walks down and return to form, then this bullpen will be scary.
Jorge Sosa:
Marcel: 105 IP, 4.46 ERA, 69 Ks, 1.419 WHIP, 101 ERA+, 99 WHIP+, 86 K/BB+, 89 K/9+, 97 BB/9+, 84 HR/9+.
CHONE: 119 IP, 4.24 ERA, 81 Ks, 1.378 WHIP, 4 RoR, 103 ERA+, 104 WHIP+, 95 K/BB+, 95 K/9+, 100 BB/9+, 79 HR/9+, 44 RoR+.
ZiPS: 4.47 ERA, 77 Ks, 1.427 WHIP, 103 ERA+, 103 WHIP+, 89 K/BB+, 88 K/9+, 92 BB/9+, 101 HR/9+.
Bill James: 112 IP, 4.38 ERA, 75 Ks, 1.426 WHIP.
Sosa seems to be your typical long-relief / spot-starter guy. He might stack up as a decent #5 starter on another team. He was pretty effective last year in his handful of starts, and held his own out of the bullpen the rest of the season. I'd say he's a good guy to have around, but I don' think he'll quite reach his Innings Pitched projections unless the Mets are inundated with injuries.
Scott Schoeneweis:
Marcel: 60 IP, 4.65 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.450 WHIP, 96 ERA+, 97 WHIP+, 79 K/BB+, 93 K/9+, 83 BB/9+, 113 HR/9+.
CHONE: 65 IP, 4.57 ERA, 43 Kso 1.523 WHIP, 5 RoR, 95 ERA+, 94 WHIP+, 89 K/BB+, 92 K/9+, 97 BB/9+, 114 HR/9+, 54 RoR+.
ZiPS: 56 IP, 4.34 ERA, 39 Ks, 1.464 WHIP, 105 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 80 K/BB+, 104 K/9+, 59 BB/9+, 136 HR/9+.
Bill James: 60 IP, 4.50 ERA, 36 Ks, 1.467 WHIP.
I think Scotty should be relegated to the role of a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY). By all projections he doesn't strike anybody out, walks his fair share, and doesn't give up many home runs. I say bring him in once a game to get out that one left-handed hitter. Any more action than that will come to no good.
Billy Wagner:
Marcel: 66 IP, 3.27 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.227 WHIP, 127 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 152 K/BB+, 137 K/9+, 110 BB/9+, 108 HR/9+.
CHONE: 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.058 WHIP, 15 RoR, 137 ERA+, 126 WHIP+, 227 K/BB+, 161 K/9+, 129 BB/9+, 130 HR/9+, 163 RoR+.
ZiPS: 73 IP, 2.71 ERA, 84 Ks, 1.082 WHIP, 141 ERA+, 127 WHIP+, 221 K/BB+, 172 K/9+, 115 BB/9+, 121 HR/9+.
Bill James: 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 82 Ks, 1.014 WHIP.
Wagner remains one of the best closers in the game. As my brother reminded me last weekend, Wagner has the highest K/9 ratio of any pitcher with 500 IP ever. Even as he gets older, Wagner continues to mow down opposing hitters in the ninth inning. Expect another productive season for Billy this year.
Ambiorix Burgos:
Marcel: 44 IP, 4.50 ERA, 40 Ks, 1.409 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 100 WHIP+, 105 K/BB+, 123 K/9+, 83 BB/9+, 81 HR/9+.
CHONE: 85 IP, 3.92 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.424 WHIP, 7 RoR, 110 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 147 K/9+, 60 BB/9+, 106 HR/9+, 76 RoR+.
ZiPS: 67 IP, 4.97 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.388 WHIP, 92 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 138 K/BB+, 150 K/9+, 82 BB/9+, 50 HR/9+.
Bill James: 45 IP, 4.60 ERA, 46 Ks, 1.422 WHIP.
I really couldn't tell you how much of an impact Burgos will have this year. The Met bullpen is pretty well stocked, so unless there are a couple of injuries I don't see Burgos getting much of a shot. And it's really a shame, because he has a blazing fastball that goes about a million miles per hour, and we never really got a chance to see it. Maybe he'll be lights out in spring training.
Joe Smith:
Marcel: 47 IP, 4.02 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.426 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 99 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 91 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
ZiPS: 49 P, 3.66 ERA, 49 Ks, 1.322 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 129 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 151 HR/9+.
I find it intriguing that a pitcher like Smith, who got to pitch a bunch of innings last year is absent from two of the projections, especially considering his favorable expectations from the remaining two. Both Marcel and ZiPS expect him to be above average. He's still young though; a few months or another season in the minors couldn't hurt.
Matt Wise:
Marcel: 56 IP, 4.18 ERA, 43 Ks, 1.393 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 104 K/9+, 103 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
CHONE: 56 IP, 4.02 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.339 WHIP, 6 RoR, 108 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 116 K/BB+, 102 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 100 HR/9+, 65 RoR+.
ZiPS: 54 IP, 4.00 ERA, 42 Ks, 1.315 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 135 K/BB+, 116 K/9+, 106 BB/9+, 120 HR/9+.
Bill James: 40 IP, 3.83 ERA, 31 Ks, 1.275 WHIP.
Wise looks like he'll shape up to be a nice addition to the pen this season. Interesting how he's projected at average or above average in every single area. I'll admit that I never heard of him before I looked at the Mets active roster, but I look forward to hearing a lot of him this year.
Brian Schneider:
Marcel: .253 BA, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 2 SB, .326 OBP, .365 SLG, .692 OPS, 94 BA+, 97 OBP+, 86 SLG+, 91 OPS+.
CHONE: .251 BA, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .316 OBP, .365 SLG, .678 OPS, 96 BA+, 99 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 96 OPS+.
ZiPS: .238 BA, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 1 SB, .316 OBP, .318 SLG, .634 OPS, 3.5 RC/27, 94 BA+, 99 OBP+, 81 SLG+, 89 OPS+, 83 RC/27+.
Bill James: .249 BA, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 0 SB, .328 OBP, .362 SLG, .690 OPS, 4.06 RC/27.
Well, he probably won't hit much worse than Paul LoDuca, and he'll probably play a helluvalot better defense. I still think that Ramon Castro should get a lot of at-bats because he's clearly a better hitter. Schneider has been quite durable and he's not old, so I don't think Willie Randolph will hesitate to use Castro as a pinch hitter quite often. I mean usually managers like to keep one catcher in reserve because it's the hardest position on the field to replace. But in this case, I think Randolph can be more flexible.
Ramon Castro:
Marcel: .262 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 2 SB, .330 OBP, .454 SLG, .784 OPS, 97 BA+, 98 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 103 OPS+.
CHONE: .242 BA, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, .320 OBP, .396 SLG, .716 OPS, 92 BA+, 101 OBP+, 101 SLG+, 101 OPS+.
ZiPS: .250 BA, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB, .318 OBP, .434 SLG, .752 OPS, 4.6 RC/27, 98 BA+, 100 OBP+, 111 SLG+, 106 OPS+, 109 RC/27+.
Bill James: .252 BA, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 0 SB, .322 OBP, .469 SLG, .791 OPS, 5.15 RC/27.
Uch, he's such a better hitter than Schneider. I mean look at those Slugging Percentages! He's an extra-base-hit machine! Erm, that is when he makes contact... But I guess that's why he's not an every day player. I think if Schneider sucks it up or gets hurt, and Castro gets an opportunity to play every day, he'll really show us what he can do. Those over-100 OPS+s are very good for a catcher.
Carlos Delgado:
Marcel: .265 BA, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 3 SB, .349 OBP, .485 SLG, .833 OPS, 98 BA+, 103 OBP+, 114 SLG+, 109 OPS.
CHONE: .256 BA, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 0 SB, .350 OBP, .489 SLG, .839 OPS, 98 BA+, 110 OBP+, 125 SLG+, 118 OPS+.
ZiPS: .257 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB, .349 OBP, .476 SLG, .825 OPS, 5.9 RC/27, 101 BA+, 110 OBP+, 122 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 140 RC/27+.
Bill James: .269 BA, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, .373 OBP, .508 SLG, .881 OPS, 6.48 RC/27.
Heee's baaaaack! After a horrible 2007, all of these projections feel that Delgado will bounce back, especially Bill James. If he can truly return to form, then the middle of the Mets batting order, Church, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, and Alou should terrorize NL East pitching. A lot of the blame for the Mets' struggles last year can be placed on Delgado. He'll be eager to show that he still has the skills that made him one of the most fearsome sluggers in all of baseball for the last decade and a half.
Luis Castillo:
Marcel: .290 BA, 4 HR, 42 RBI, 17 SB, .357 OBP, .371 SLG, .728 OPS, 107 BA+, 106 OBP+, 87 SLG+, 95 OPS+, 96 SB+.
CHONE: .293 BA, 4 HR, 49 RBI, 13 SB, .364 OBP, .369 SLG, .733 OPS, 112 BA+, 114 OBP+, 94 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 94 SB+.
ZiPS: .294 BA, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 18 SB, .361 OBP, .359 SLG, .720 OPS, 4.7 RC/27, 116 BA+, 114 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 101 OPS+, 110 SB+, 112 RC/27+.
Bill James: .299 BA, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 20 SB, .370 OBP, .360 SLG, .730 OPS, 4.85 RC/27.
Castillo is an interesting hitter. He has absolutely no power, and will hit very few extra-base hits. Nontheless, he manages to walk a lot and makes contact, so he still gets on base a ton. The Mets have zero Second Base prospects, so they need stopgap until they can get somebody young, az Castillo looks like he'll be a fixture in this lineup for the next four seasons. I DON'T think he should bat second like he did last year; I think Ryan Church should hit second and Castillo should hit eighth.
Jose Reyes:
Marcel: .292 BA, 12 HR, 62 RBI, 59 SB, .351 OBP, .442 SLG, .793 OPS, 108 BA+, 104 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 104 OPS+, 109 SB+.
CHONE: .294 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 50 SB, .342 OBP, .440 SLG, .782 OPS, 112 BA+, 108 OBP+, 112 SLG+, 110 OPS+, 117 SB+.
ZiPS: .285 BA, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 71 SB, .356 OBP, .444 SLG, .800 OPS, 5.7 RC/28, 112 BA, 112 OBP+, 113 SLG+, 113 OPS+, 119 SB+, 135 RC/27+.
Bill James: .289 BA, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 69 SB, .348 OBP, .442 SLG, .790 OPS, 5.57 RC/27.
I'm upset that all the projections took Reyes's second half dropoff last year so seriously. Before that he was being touted as maybe the best all around player in the game. Now nobody projects him to have an OPS higher than .800. Don't get me wrong, he's still an outstanding player, but he's no longer expected to be that elite player. I think he'll outperform all of these projections. Schmutter's Bold Preseason Prediction #2: Reyes's OPS is higher than .825 and he outperforms Jimmy Rollins.
David Wright:
Marcel: .315 BA, 24 HR, 98 RBI, 23 SB, .397 OBP, .527 SLG, .924 OPS, 117 BA+, 118 OBP+, 124 SLG+, 121 OPS+, 115 SB+.
CHONE: .301 BA, 26 HR, 96 RBI, 19 SB, .387 OBP, .518 SLG, .905 OPS, 115 BA+, 122 OBP+, 132 SLG+, 127 OPS+, 115 SB+.
ZiPS: .313 BA, 29 HR, 113 RBI, 23 SB, .405 OBP, .540 SLG, .945 OPS, 8.4 RC/27, 123 BA+, 127 OBP+, 138 SLG+, 133 OPS+, 125 SB+, 200 RC/27+.
Bill James: .318 BA, 31 HR, 111 RBI, 27 SB, .407 OBP, .554 SLG, .961 OPS, 8.52 RC/27.
What a stud! There are a lot of sabermetricians out there who think he's the best player in the NL, and I don't know if I can argue against it. Now that Miguel Cabrera is gone, the only other players in the NL that have a chance to be as good as Wright for the foreseeable future are Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun. Utley's and Howard's numbers get inflated by their ballpark, and Ramirez and Braun are brutal defensive players, so it's really down to Wright and Utley. Those two will be challenging each other for the MVP all season. And if Delgado and Beltran can provide him some support and protection in the lineup, it will only help Wright more.
Moises Alou:
Marcel: .300 BA, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB, .359 OBP, .493 SLG, .852 OPS, 111 BA+, 106 OBP+, 116 SLG+, 112 OPS+.
CHONE: .282 BA, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 3 SB, .349 OBP, .459 SLG, .808 OPS, 108 BA+, 110 OBP+, 117 SLG+, 114 OPS+.
ZiPS: .302 BA, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB, .365 OBP, .489 SLG, .854 OPS, 6.6 RC/27, 119 BA+, 115 OBP+, 125 SLG+, 120 OPS+, 157 RC/27+.
Bill James: .292 BA, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 3 SB, .360 OBP, .477 SLG, .837 OPS, 6.28 RC/27.
I don't care if he is 93 years old, dude can still rake. I mean nobody expects him to play more than 100 games or so, but he'll still manage to be productive when he's healthy. Guy's a professional hitter, period (comma period period). I'm not too crazy about the prospect of Endy Chavez taking over when Mo gets injured, but that's the risk you take. I hear we've got this guy named Martinez down in the minors...
Endy Chavez:
Marcel: .283 BA, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 8 SB, .333 OBP, .407 SLG, .740 OPS, 105 BA+, 99 OBP+, 96 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
CHONE: .277 BA, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 15 SB, .326 OBP, .379 SLG, .705 OPS, 106 BA+, 103 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 99 OPS+, 109 SB+.
ZiPS: .275 BA, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB, .319 OBP, .379 SLG, .698 OPS, 4.1 RC/27, 108 BA+, 100 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 98 OPS+, 97 RC/27+.
Bill James: .273 BA, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, .318 OBP, .368 SLG, .696 OPS, 4.19 RC/27.
Endy's a nice little stopgap for when Moises Alou inevitably goes on the disabled list. He filled in nicely a couple of years ago, and he will always have a special place in Mets fans' hearts for stealing a home run from Scott Rolen in game seven of the 2006 NLCS. And everyone likes to pull for the little guy. He has absolutely no power, but he always plays hard and will surprise us with the occasional home run. He's an outstanding defensive outfielder and will come in late in many games as a defensive replacement to spare Alou's rickety knees any excess punishment. All in all he's not a bad guy to have around.
Carlos Beltran:
Marcel: .271 BA, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 18 SB, .355 OBP, .498 SLG, .853 OPS, 100 BA+, 105 OBP+, 117 SLG+, 112 OPS+, 116 SB+.
CHONE: .271 BA, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 23 SB, .373 OBP, .496 SLG, .869 OPS, 103 BA+, 117 OBP+, 127 SLG+, 122 OPS+, 124 SB+.
ZiPS: .261 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 15 SB, .347 OBP, .476 SLG, .823 OPS, 5.9 RC/27, 103 BA+, 109 OBP+, 121 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 134 SB+, 140 RC/27+.
Bill James: .275 BA, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 23 SB, .364 OBP, .515 SLG, .879 OPS, 6.73 RC/27.
I feel like Beltran is the forgotten man in this Mets lineup (as much as a man making $119 million can be forgotten); he's just so quiet and unobtrusive. Everyone marvels at Wright's youth, and Reyes's excitement, and Delgado's smelliness from last year, but Beltran really proves his worth day after day. He plays an excellent center field, steals bases, and hits for power. I think the Marcel and ZiPS projections are a bit low, and James might be a bit high, but if Carlos can put up an OPS of .850 and hit 30 home runs, we'll be very happy.
Damion Easley:
Marcel: .250 BA, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 3 SB, .325 OBP, .414 SLG, .740 OPS, 93 BA+, 96 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
CHONE: .249 BA, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, .329 OBP, .402 SLG, .731 OPS, 95 BA+, 103 OBP+, 103 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 97 SB+.
ZiPS: .242 BA, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB, .321 OBP, .392 SLG, .713 OPS, 4.3 RC/27, 95 BA+, 101 OBP+, 100 SLG+, 100 OPS+, 102 RC/27+.
Bill James: .235 BA, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .326 OBP, .395 SLG, .721 OPS, 3.95 RC/27.
Ruben Gotay:
Marcel: .272 BA, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 4 SB, .337 OBP, .415 SLG, .752 OPS, 101 BA+, 100 OBP+, 98 SLG+, 98 OPS+.
CHONE: .251 BA, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB, .315 OBP, .373 SLG, .688 OPS, 96 BA+, 99 OBP+, 95 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
ZiPS: .245 BA, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .304 OBP, .361 SLG, .665 OPS, 3.6 RC/27, 96 BA+, 96 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 94 OPS+, 86 RC/27+.
Bill James: .258 BA, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB, .321 OBP, .406 SLG, .727 OPS, 4.33 RC/27.
Marlon Anderson:
Marcel: .278 BA, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 6 SB, .335 OBP, .443 SLG, .778 OPS, 103BA+, 99 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 102 OPS+.
CHONE: .267 BA, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 5 SB, .322 OBP, .419 SLG, .741 OPS, 102 BA+, 101 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 104 OPS+.
ZiPS: .257 BA, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB, .319 OBP, .410 SLG, .729 OPS, 4.4 RC/27, 101 BA+, 100 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 105 RC/27+.
Bill James: .262 BA, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 3 SB, .323 OBP, .402 SLG, .725 OPS, 4.57 RC/27.
Easley, Gotay, and Anderson are going to be the Mets top utility guys. They can play the infield and the outfield, and they can be used to benefit from the platoon advantage. They'll be good for a little pop off the bench, and will fill in nicely when Castillo, Delgado, Beltran, and Church need breaks or get injured. This is really shaping up to be be a solid bench. I should do some research on play from non-starters from recent successful teams.
Ryan Church:
Marcel: .274 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 6 SB, .350 OBP, .465 SLG, .815 OPS, 102 BA+, 104 OBP+, 109 SLG+, 107 OPS+.
CHONE: .244 BA, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, .324 OBP, .414 SLG, .738 OPS, 93 BA+, 102 OBP+, 106 SLG+, 104 OPS.
ZiPS: .272 BA, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB, .351 OBP, .469 SLG, .820 OPS, 5.7 RC/27, 107 BA+, 110 OBP+, 120 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 135 RC/27+.
Bill James: .273 BA, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .353 OBP, .463 SLG, .816 OPS, 5.71 RC/27.
For my in-depth Ryan Church analysis, see my post from November 20th, 2007, entitled "Church v. Hunter."
Mets Pitching Totals:
Marcel: 4.20 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 104 WHIP+, 109 K/BB+, 113 K/9+, 103 BB/9+, 103 HR/9+.
CHONE: 3.84 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 124 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 105 BB/9+, 106 HR/9+, 136 RoR+.
ZiPS: 4.25 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 125 K/BB+, 117 K/9+, 98 BB/9+, 110 HR/9+.
Bill James: 3.83 ERA, 1.281 WHIP.
By all accounts, this staff will match up with the best in the league. It's clearly the best staff in the NL East, and it will be interesting to see how it matches up with the staffs in the NL West, namely the staffs of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres. Either way, what was considered a weakness in the team last season is now a strength, especially if the pitchers can stay healthy.
Mets Hitting Totals:
Marcel: .278 BA, .348 OBP, .446 SLG, .793 OPS, 103 BA+, 103 OBP+, 105 SLG+, 104 OPS+.
CHONE: .269 BA, .338 OBP, .419 SLG, .757 OPS, 103 BA+, 106 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 107 OPS+.
ZiPS: .251 BA, .341 OBP, .392 SLG, .733 OPS, 99 BA+, 107 OBP+, 100 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 119 RC/27+.
Bill James: .279 BA, .325 OBP, .453 SLG, .778 OPS, 5.31 RC/27.
I'm going to ignore the ZiPS projection because it has the most players on it. It gives projections for many players that probably will not see any major league plate appearances this year. The other projections show that the Mets' lineup will be above average all around. Again, they need to get good production out of Carlos Delgado and they need to stay healthy, but I guess I can say that about any team. Look for the Mets to go through some cold stretches, but the pitching should hold up its end of the bargain and minimize these cold stretches.
Final Bold Preseason Prediction: The Mets won 88 games last year, and that included a horrible month of September. I predict that the Mets will win 96 games and lose 66 games and win the NL East. Beyond that, who can say? The playoffs are a crapshoot anyway, right?
As of now, there are four widely recognized, freely available lists of player projections on the internet: the CHONE projections (http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html), the Marcel projections (http://www.tangotiger.net/marcel/), the ZiPS projections (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/), and the Bill James projections (available on http://www.fangraphs.com/). As far as I know, these are the only projections out there that are based on statistical analysis and not just general estimation. I'm still unwilling to shell out the cash for a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, mostly because there's so much information available out there for free that it's just not worth it. Also, I read Joe Sheehan on Baseball Analysts anyway. The point is, I think I have enough trustworthy projections that I can survive without Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections.
Okay, so I downloaded the spreadsheets for each of those projections (Bill James is not available in spreadsheet format, so I won't be using his numbers much in my analysis. I'll mostly use him to provide credibility to the other projections), and had an awesome time fiddling around with them. I summed and averaged a bunch of the columns so that I could get league averages to which I could compare the Mets' numbers. I went to http://www.mlb.com/ and copied down the 40-man active New York Mets roster and found their relevant projected stats. Then, for each of the projections, I compared their stats to the league averages. In order to determine how good (or bad) each player was compared to the league averages, I only used rate stats. For pitchers I used ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 (CHONE projections also included Runs over Replacement, so I used that too), and for batters I used SB%, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS (ZiPS included Runs Created projections, so I used that too).
If you've gotten this far, it means that you care a lot about baseball, or about my feelings on the Mets. Or you just like me a lot. Anyway, if you've gotten this far because you care a lot about baseball, I'm going to explain how to calculate all of those stats. This is important because I had to calculate the league averages on my own. What I mean is that I didn't need to calculate David Wright's Slugging Percentage because it was given to me in the projection, but I needed to sum the necessary components of the mathematical formula so that I could calculate the league average Slugging Percentage. Anyway, I will use Marcel's Johan Santana as my example for pitchers and David Wright as my example for batters:
ERA: (Earned Runs divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (71 / 193) * 9 = 3.31
WHIP: (Walks + Runs) divided by Innings Pitched. Santana: (48 + 164) / 193 = 1.098
K/BB: Strikeouts divided by Walks. Santana: (198 / 48) = 4.125
K/9: (Strikeouts divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (198 / 193) * 9 = 9.233
BB/9: (Walks divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (48 / 193) * 9 = 2.238
HR/9: (Home Runs divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (23 / 193) * 9 = 1.073
SB%: Stolen Bases divided by (Stolen Bases + Caught Stealing). Wright: 23 / (23 + 4) = .852
BA: Hits divided by At-Bats. Wright: 170 / 539 = .315
OBP: (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) divided by (At-Bats + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Sacrifice Flies). Wright: (170 + 72 + 5) / (539 + 72 + 5 + 6) = .397
SLG: ((1 times Singles) + (2 times Doubles) + (3 times Triples) + (4 times Home Runs)) divided by At-Bats. Wright: ((1 * 106) + (2 * 38) + (3 * 2) + (4 * 24)) / 539 = .527
OPS: OBP + SLG. Wright: .397 + .527 = .924
Great! Now I'll use those numbers and compare them to the league average and come out with some new stats. I called these new stats "Plus" stats. What I did was I took David Wright's projected BA of .315 and divided it by the league projected BA of .270. Then I multiplied this by 100. (.315 / .270) * 100 = 117. I called this 117 David Wright's BA+. I did the same thing for each of the other stats (keep in mind that the OPS+ and ERA+ numbers I calculated are not the actual OPS+ and ERA+, which are real sabermetric stats that involve more complex calculations. These "Plus" stats are my own). I'll give one more example, because for some of the pitching stats it's better to be below the league average. I took Johan Santana's projected ERA of 3.31 and divided it by the league average ERA of 4.49, and subtracted the result from one. Then I multiplied that by 100 and added 100. ((1 - (3.31 / 4.49)) * 100) + 100 = 126, Santana's ERA+.
Okay, now I'm done explaining. Now I'll provide some notes on each player on the 40-man roster who I belive will get significant playing time, and then I'll give a little analysis on the team as a whole. This might be my longest post ever. Who's excited?: (Players I will not be mentioning: Adam Bostick, Willie Collazo, Ruddy Lugo, Carlos Muniz, Steven Register, Brian Stokes, Jason Vargas, Anderson Hernandez, and Angel Pagan)
Johan Santana:
Marcel: 193 IP, 3.31 ERA, 198 Ks, 1.098 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 122 WHIP+, 206 K/BB+, 139 K/9+, 133 BB/9+, 96 HR/9+.
CHONE: 212 IP, 2.50 ERA, 232 Ks, 0.948 WHIP, 60 RoR, 143 ERA+, 134 WHIP+, 298 K/BB+, 152 K/9+, 149 BB/9+, 113 HR/9+, 653 RoR+.
ZiPS: 234 IP, 3.04 ERA, 244 Ks, 1.017 WHIP, 134 ERA+, 131 WHIP+, 306 K/BB+, 156 K/9+, 145 BB/9+, 114 HR/9+.
Bill James: 216 IP, 3.00 ERA, 228 Ks, 1.069 WHIP.
Clearly Santana is an elite pitcher. Marcel is known for its conservative pitching projections, which were quite accurate last year. But even if Santana puts up those numbers, he would likely still be one of the top three pitchers in the NL. But if he manages to put up numbers like the other projections would suggest, then it will be one of the best pitching seasons we've seen in the NL in a long time. Jesus, his CHONE projections of 2.50 ERA, 0.948 WHIP and RoR+ of 653 would be absolutely absurd. I can't wait to watch him in person. As stated on The Hardball times website, "Oh, and if his price tag is really bothering any of you, think of it this way: in 2007 the Mets paid $23.25 million to Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, and Shawn Green. In 2008, they'll be paying roughly the same amount to Santana, Brian Schneider, and Ryan Church."
Pedro Martinez:
Marcel: 87 IP, 3.93 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.23 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 154 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 119 BB/9+, 110 HR/9+.
CHONE: 63 IP, 3.14 ERA, 62 Ks, 1.095 WHIP, 11 RoR, 128 ERA+, 123 WHIP+, 197 K/BB+, 137 K/9+, 130 BB/9+, 111 HR/9+, 120 RoR+.
ZiPS: 150 IP, 3.24 ERA, 145 Ks, 1.100 WHIP, 129 ERA+, 126 WHIP+, 233 K/BB+, 145 K/9+, 132 BB/9+, 123 HR/9+.
Bill James: 125 IP, 2.88 ERA, 135 Ks, 1.024 WHIP.
Pedro is an interesting variable this season. He is clearly an effective pitcher when he's healthy, but he has been anything but healthy for most of the past two seasons. The Marcel and CHONE projections are very conservative with only 87 and 63 expected Innings Pitched. I was prepared to disregard the ZiPS projection because it varied so differently from the other two, but Bill James is also optimistic about Pedro remaining healthy enough to log 100+ innings. If the Mets can get 300+ innings between Pedro and Johan this season, this will be a scary rotation.
John Maine:
Marcel: 163 IP, 4.03 ERA, 141 Ks, 1.282 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 112 K/BB+, 117 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 88 HR/9+.
CHONE: 155 IP, 3.89 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.348 WHIP, 19 RoR, 111 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 105 K/BB+, 111 K/9+, 93 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+, 207 RoR+.
ZiPS: 178 IP, 4.15 ERA, 148 Ks, 1.315 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 130 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
Bill James: 200 IP, 4.05 ERA, 169 Ks, 1.355 WHIP
All of these projections seem to think that the John Maine of the second half of last year is the real John Maine. His first half was outstanding, but he came back to Earth in the second half, allowing many more homers and walking more batters. Each projection has him walking more batters than average. He will still be an above-average pitcher, but we shouldn't expect anything spectacular out of him.
Oliver Perez:
Marcel: 160 IP, 4.50 ERA, 147 Ks, 1.438 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 98 WHIP+, 97 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 71 BB/9+, 80 HR/9+.
CHONE: 148 IP, 4.14 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.196 WHIP, 14 RoR, 105 ERA+, 116 WHIP+, 174 K/BB+, 143 K/9+, 118 BB/9+, 81 HR/9+, 152 RoR+.
ZiPS: 176 IP, 4.04 ERA, 170 Ks, 1.324 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 136 K/BB+, 144 K/9+, 85 BB/9+, 98 HR/9+.
Bill James: 190 IP, 4.69 ERA, 196 Ks, 1.453 WHIP
Wow, I am surprised. Here I thought that in his third season with the Mets under pitching coach Rick Peterson that Perez was primed for a breakout season. None of the projections agree with me, however. They all think he'll walk too many guys, give up too many home runs, and allow too many baserunners. I'm going to go against the grain a bit, and say that he will have an ERA below 4.00 and be better than any of these projections claim. That's Schmutter's Bold Preseason Prediction #1.
Mike Pelfrey:
Marcel: 95 IP, 4.83 ERA, 66 Ks, 1.505 WHIP, 92 ERA+, 93 WHIP+, 79 K/BB+, 94 K/9+, 80 BB/9+, 117 HR/9+.
CHONE: 119 IP, 4.01 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.403 WHIP, 9 RoR, 108 ERA+, 102 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 119 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 119 HR/9+, 98 RoR+.
ZiPS: 150 IP, 4.86 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.487 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 99 WHP+, 87 K/BB+, 90 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 123 HR/9+.
Bill James: 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 Ks, 1.281 WHIP
There's quite a bit of disparity here among the projections; Marcel and ZiPS think Pelfrey will be below average and CHONE and James think he'll be above average. It's likely that Pelfrey will fall somewhere in between, which is just fine with me for a #5 starter. It's rare for teams to have a league-average fifth starter, az I'll take it. Pelfrey is still a relatively unknown quantity because of his limited major league experience. I'm interested in seeing how he does, especially with the knowledge that El Duque is there to steal innings from him. Speaking of which...
Orlando Hernandez:
Marcel: 148 IP, 4.50 ERA, 123 Ks, 1.358 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 103 WHIP+, 99 K/BB+, 113 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 76 HR/9+.
CHONE: 141 IP, 3.77 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.298 WHIP, 19 RoR, 114 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 124 K/BB+, 122 K/9+, 101 BB/9+, 109 HR/9+, 207 RoR+.
ZiPS: 142 IP, 4.25 ERA, 119 Ks, 1.331 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 121 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 94 HR/9+.
Bill James: 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 Ks, 1.281 WHIP.
You see, since nobody really knows how old this guy is it's hard to predict when he's going to start showing his age. Some of these guys think he's already starting to regress, and the projections reflect that. Either way, it looks like El Duque will be right around league-average or slightly above. The Mets will probably use him out of the bullpen a lot, either as a situational guy for an out or two at a time, or as a long-reliever.
Pedro Feliciano:
Marcel: 63 IP, 3.57 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.317 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 114 K/9+, 93 BB/9+, 131 HR/9+.
CHONE: 41 IP, 3.51 ERA, 35 Ks, 1.268 WHIP, 5 RoR, 120 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 135 K/BB+, 119 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 122 HR/9+, 54 RoR+.
ZiPS: 65 IP, 3.19 ERA, 58 Ks, 1.246 WHIP, 131 ERA+, 116 WHIP+, 134 K/BB+, 133 K/9+, 91 BB/9+, 145 HR/9+.
Bill James: 68 IP, 3.57 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.309 WHIP.
Feliciano will be one of the prime setup men for Billy Wagner. Willie Randolph will often bring him in to face a couple of tough lefties earlier on in the game, and also to pitch the seventh inning to get the ball to Aaron Heilman for the eighth. He is projected to have an ERA in the mid-threes and not allow terribly many base runners. He'll also strike out his share of batters. He should be a solid presence in the middle of that bullpen.
Aaron Heilman:
Marcel: 77 IP, 3.62 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.221 WHIP, 119 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 127 K/BB+, 107 K/9+, 116 BB/9+, 121 HR/9+.
CHONE: 112 IP, 3.46 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.277 WHIP, 15 RoR, 121 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 125 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 106 BB/9+, 129 HR/9+, 163 RoR+.
ZiPS: 87 IP, 3.21 ERA, 73 Ks, 1.184 WHIP, 130 ERA+, 120 WHIP+, 156 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 142 HR/9+.
Bill James: 87 IP, 3.41 ERA, 72 Ks, 1.230 WHIP.
Again, I find this surprising. Heilman has had many problems in the past, so I find it amazing that they all project him to be so effective. They think he won't walk many and give up very few home runs. I hope they're right. With Heilman, Feliciano, Sanchez, and Wagner coming out of the bullpen, a lot of these games might be over after five or six innings. That would be a huge improvement over last season.
Duaner Sanchez:
Marcel: 31 IP, 3.77 ERA, 24 Ks, 1.323 WHIP, 116 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 100 K/BB+, 105 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 116 HR/9+.
CHONE: 69 IP, 3.65 ERA, 54 Ks, 1.319 WHIP, 8 RoR, 116 ERA+, 108 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 109 K/9+, 99 BB/9+, 130 HR/9+, 87 RoR+.
ZiPS: 69 IP, 3.52 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.304 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 112 WHIP+, 113 K/BB+, 115 K/9+, 90 BB/9+, 137 HR/9+.
Bill James: 61 IP, 3.98 ERA, 45 Ks, 1.361 WHIP.
Man did we miss him last season. If it weren't for that freak traffic accident we'd have had a pretty decent bullpen. The projections say that he'll be solid coming out of the bullpen. If he can keep his walks down and return to form, then this bullpen will be scary.
Jorge Sosa:
Marcel: 105 IP, 4.46 ERA, 69 Ks, 1.419 WHIP, 101 ERA+, 99 WHIP+, 86 K/BB+, 89 K/9+, 97 BB/9+, 84 HR/9+.
CHONE: 119 IP, 4.24 ERA, 81 Ks, 1.378 WHIP, 4 RoR, 103 ERA+, 104 WHIP+, 95 K/BB+, 95 K/9+, 100 BB/9+, 79 HR/9+, 44 RoR+.
ZiPS: 4.47 ERA, 77 Ks, 1.427 WHIP, 103 ERA+, 103 WHIP+, 89 K/BB+, 88 K/9+, 92 BB/9+, 101 HR/9+.
Bill James: 112 IP, 4.38 ERA, 75 Ks, 1.426 WHIP.
Sosa seems to be your typical long-relief / spot-starter guy. He might stack up as a decent #5 starter on another team. He was pretty effective last year in his handful of starts, and held his own out of the bullpen the rest of the season. I'd say he's a good guy to have around, but I don' think he'll quite reach his Innings Pitched projections unless the Mets are inundated with injuries.
Scott Schoeneweis:
Marcel: 60 IP, 4.65 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.450 WHIP, 96 ERA+, 97 WHIP+, 79 K/BB+, 93 K/9+, 83 BB/9+, 113 HR/9+.
CHONE: 65 IP, 4.57 ERA, 43 Kso 1.523 WHIP, 5 RoR, 95 ERA+, 94 WHIP+, 89 K/BB+, 92 K/9+, 97 BB/9+, 114 HR/9+, 54 RoR+.
ZiPS: 56 IP, 4.34 ERA, 39 Ks, 1.464 WHIP, 105 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 80 K/BB+, 104 K/9+, 59 BB/9+, 136 HR/9+.
Bill James: 60 IP, 4.50 ERA, 36 Ks, 1.467 WHIP.
I think Scotty should be relegated to the role of a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY). By all projections he doesn't strike anybody out, walks his fair share, and doesn't give up many home runs. I say bring him in once a game to get out that one left-handed hitter. Any more action than that will come to no good.
Billy Wagner:
Marcel: 66 IP, 3.27 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.227 WHIP, 127 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 152 K/BB+, 137 K/9+, 110 BB/9+, 108 HR/9+.
CHONE: 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.058 WHIP, 15 RoR, 137 ERA+, 126 WHIP+, 227 K/BB+, 161 K/9+, 129 BB/9+, 130 HR/9+, 163 RoR+.
ZiPS: 73 IP, 2.71 ERA, 84 Ks, 1.082 WHIP, 141 ERA+, 127 WHIP+, 221 K/BB+, 172 K/9+, 115 BB/9+, 121 HR/9+.
Bill James: 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 82 Ks, 1.014 WHIP.
Wagner remains one of the best closers in the game. As my brother reminded me last weekend, Wagner has the highest K/9 ratio of any pitcher with 500 IP ever. Even as he gets older, Wagner continues to mow down opposing hitters in the ninth inning. Expect another productive season for Billy this year.
Ambiorix Burgos:
Marcel: 44 IP, 4.50 ERA, 40 Ks, 1.409 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 100 WHIP+, 105 K/BB+, 123 K/9+, 83 BB/9+, 81 HR/9+.
CHONE: 85 IP, 3.92 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.424 WHIP, 7 RoR, 110 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 147 K/9+, 60 BB/9+, 106 HR/9+, 76 RoR+.
ZiPS: 67 IP, 4.97 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.388 WHIP, 92 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 138 K/BB+, 150 K/9+, 82 BB/9+, 50 HR/9+.
Bill James: 45 IP, 4.60 ERA, 46 Ks, 1.422 WHIP.
I really couldn't tell you how much of an impact Burgos will have this year. The Met bullpen is pretty well stocked, so unless there are a couple of injuries I don't see Burgos getting much of a shot. And it's really a shame, because he has a blazing fastball that goes about a million miles per hour, and we never really got a chance to see it. Maybe he'll be lights out in spring training.
Joe Smith:
Marcel: 47 IP, 4.02 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.426 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 99 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 91 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
ZiPS: 49 P, 3.66 ERA, 49 Ks, 1.322 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 129 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 151 HR/9+.
I find it intriguing that a pitcher like Smith, who got to pitch a bunch of innings last year is absent from two of the projections, especially considering his favorable expectations from the remaining two. Both Marcel and ZiPS expect him to be above average. He's still young though; a few months or another season in the minors couldn't hurt.
Matt Wise:
Marcel: 56 IP, 4.18 ERA, 43 Ks, 1.393 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 104 K/9+, 103 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
CHONE: 56 IP, 4.02 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.339 WHIP, 6 RoR, 108 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 116 K/BB+, 102 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 100 HR/9+, 65 RoR+.
ZiPS: 54 IP, 4.00 ERA, 42 Ks, 1.315 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 135 K/BB+, 116 K/9+, 106 BB/9+, 120 HR/9+.
Bill James: 40 IP, 3.83 ERA, 31 Ks, 1.275 WHIP.
Wise looks like he'll shape up to be a nice addition to the pen this season. Interesting how he's projected at average or above average in every single area. I'll admit that I never heard of him before I looked at the Mets active roster, but I look forward to hearing a lot of him this year.
Brian Schneider:
Marcel: .253 BA, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 2 SB, .326 OBP, .365 SLG, .692 OPS, 94 BA+, 97 OBP+, 86 SLG+, 91 OPS+.
CHONE: .251 BA, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .316 OBP, .365 SLG, .678 OPS, 96 BA+, 99 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 96 OPS+.
ZiPS: .238 BA, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 1 SB, .316 OBP, .318 SLG, .634 OPS, 3.5 RC/27, 94 BA+, 99 OBP+, 81 SLG+, 89 OPS+, 83 RC/27+.
Bill James: .249 BA, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 0 SB, .328 OBP, .362 SLG, .690 OPS, 4.06 RC/27.
Well, he probably won't hit much worse than Paul LoDuca, and he'll probably play a helluvalot better defense. I still think that Ramon Castro should get a lot of at-bats because he's clearly a better hitter. Schneider has been quite durable and he's not old, so I don't think Willie Randolph will hesitate to use Castro as a pinch hitter quite often. I mean usually managers like to keep one catcher in reserve because it's the hardest position on the field to replace. But in this case, I think Randolph can be more flexible.
Ramon Castro:
Marcel: .262 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 2 SB, .330 OBP, .454 SLG, .784 OPS, 97 BA+, 98 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 103 OPS+.
CHONE: .242 BA, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, .320 OBP, .396 SLG, .716 OPS, 92 BA+, 101 OBP+, 101 SLG+, 101 OPS+.
ZiPS: .250 BA, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB, .318 OBP, .434 SLG, .752 OPS, 4.6 RC/27, 98 BA+, 100 OBP+, 111 SLG+, 106 OPS+, 109 RC/27+.
Bill James: .252 BA, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 0 SB, .322 OBP, .469 SLG, .791 OPS, 5.15 RC/27.
Uch, he's such a better hitter than Schneider. I mean look at those Slugging Percentages! He's an extra-base-hit machine! Erm, that is when he makes contact... But I guess that's why he's not an every day player. I think if Schneider sucks it up or gets hurt, and Castro gets an opportunity to play every day, he'll really show us what he can do. Those over-100 OPS+s are very good for a catcher.
Carlos Delgado:
Marcel: .265 BA, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 3 SB, .349 OBP, .485 SLG, .833 OPS, 98 BA+, 103 OBP+, 114 SLG+, 109 OPS.
CHONE: .256 BA, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 0 SB, .350 OBP, .489 SLG, .839 OPS, 98 BA+, 110 OBP+, 125 SLG+, 118 OPS+.
ZiPS: .257 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB, .349 OBP, .476 SLG, .825 OPS, 5.9 RC/27, 101 BA+, 110 OBP+, 122 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 140 RC/27+.
Bill James: .269 BA, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, .373 OBP, .508 SLG, .881 OPS, 6.48 RC/27.
Heee's baaaaack! After a horrible 2007, all of these projections feel that Delgado will bounce back, especially Bill James. If he can truly return to form, then the middle of the Mets batting order, Church, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, and Alou should terrorize NL East pitching. A lot of the blame for the Mets' struggles last year can be placed on Delgado. He'll be eager to show that he still has the skills that made him one of the most fearsome sluggers in all of baseball for the last decade and a half.
Luis Castillo:
Marcel: .290 BA, 4 HR, 42 RBI, 17 SB, .357 OBP, .371 SLG, .728 OPS, 107 BA+, 106 OBP+, 87 SLG+, 95 OPS+, 96 SB+.
CHONE: .293 BA, 4 HR, 49 RBI, 13 SB, .364 OBP, .369 SLG, .733 OPS, 112 BA+, 114 OBP+, 94 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 94 SB+.
ZiPS: .294 BA, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 18 SB, .361 OBP, .359 SLG, .720 OPS, 4.7 RC/27, 116 BA+, 114 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 101 OPS+, 110 SB+, 112 RC/27+.
Bill James: .299 BA, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 20 SB, .370 OBP, .360 SLG, .730 OPS, 4.85 RC/27.
Castillo is an interesting hitter. He has absolutely no power, and will hit very few extra-base hits. Nontheless, he manages to walk a lot and makes contact, so he still gets on base a ton. The Mets have zero Second Base prospects, so they need stopgap until they can get somebody young, az Castillo looks like he'll be a fixture in this lineup for the next four seasons. I DON'T think he should bat second like he did last year; I think Ryan Church should hit second and Castillo should hit eighth.
Jose Reyes:
Marcel: .292 BA, 12 HR, 62 RBI, 59 SB, .351 OBP, .442 SLG, .793 OPS, 108 BA+, 104 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 104 OPS+, 109 SB+.
CHONE: .294 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 50 SB, .342 OBP, .440 SLG, .782 OPS, 112 BA+, 108 OBP+, 112 SLG+, 110 OPS+, 117 SB+.
ZiPS: .285 BA, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 71 SB, .356 OBP, .444 SLG, .800 OPS, 5.7 RC/28, 112 BA, 112 OBP+, 113 SLG+, 113 OPS+, 119 SB+, 135 RC/27+.
Bill James: .289 BA, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 69 SB, .348 OBP, .442 SLG, .790 OPS, 5.57 RC/27.
I'm upset that all the projections took Reyes's second half dropoff last year so seriously. Before that he was being touted as maybe the best all around player in the game. Now nobody projects him to have an OPS higher than .800. Don't get me wrong, he's still an outstanding player, but he's no longer expected to be that elite player. I think he'll outperform all of these projections. Schmutter's Bold Preseason Prediction #2: Reyes's OPS is higher than .825 and he outperforms Jimmy Rollins.
David Wright:
Marcel: .315 BA, 24 HR, 98 RBI, 23 SB, .397 OBP, .527 SLG, .924 OPS, 117 BA+, 118 OBP+, 124 SLG+, 121 OPS+, 115 SB+.
CHONE: .301 BA, 26 HR, 96 RBI, 19 SB, .387 OBP, .518 SLG, .905 OPS, 115 BA+, 122 OBP+, 132 SLG+, 127 OPS+, 115 SB+.
ZiPS: .313 BA, 29 HR, 113 RBI, 23 SB, .405 OBP, .540 SLG, .945 OPS, 8.4 RC/27, 123 BA+, 127 OBP+, 138 SLG+, 133 OPS+, 125 SB+, 200 RC/27+.
Bill James: .318 BA, 31 HR, 111 RBI, 27 SB, .407 OBP, .554 SLG, .961 OPS, 8.52 RC/27.
What a stud! There are a lot of sabermetricians out there who think he's the best player in the NL, and I don't know if I can argue against it. Now that Miguel Cabrera is gone, the only other players in the NL that have a chance to be as good as Wright for the foreseeable future are Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun. Utley's and Howard's numbers get inflated by their ballpark, and Ramirez and Braun are brutal defensive players, so it's really down to Wright and Utley. Those two will be challenging each other for the MVP all season. And if Delgado and Beltran can provide him some support and protection in the lineup, it will only help Wright more.
Moises Alou:
Marcel: .300 BA, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB, .359 OBP, .493 SLG, .852 OPS, 111 BA+, 106 OBP+, 116 SLG+, 112 OPS+.
CHONE: .282 BA, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 3 SB, .349 OBP, .459 SLG, .808 OPS, 108 BA+, 110 OBP+, 117 SLG+, 114 OPS+.
ZiPS: .302 BA, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB, .365 OBP, .489 SLG, .854 OPS, 6.6 RC/27, 119 BA+, 115 OBP+, 125 SLG+, 120 OPS+, 157 RC/27+.
Bill James: .292 BA, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 3 SB, .360 OBP, .477 SLG, .837 OPS, 6.28 RC/27.
I don't care if he is 93 years old, dude can still rake. I mean nobody expects him to play more than 100 games or so, but he'll still manage to be productive when he's healthy. Guy's a professional hitter, period (comma period period). I'm not too crazy about the prospect of Endy Chavez taking over when Mo gets injured, but that's the risk you take. I hear we've got this guy named Martinez down in the minors...
Endy Chavez:
Marcel: .283 BA, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 8 SB, .333 OBP, .407 SLG, .740 OPS, 105 BA+, 99 OBP+, 96 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
CHONE: .277 BA, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 15 SB, .326 OBP, .379 SLG, .705 OPS, 106 BA+, 103 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 99 OPS+, 109 SB+.
ZiPS: .275 BA, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB, .319 OBP, .379 SLG, .698 OPS, 4.1 RC/27, 108 BA+, 100 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 98 OPS+, 97 RC/27+.
Bill James: .273 BA, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, .318 OBP, .368 SLG, .696 OPS, 4.19 RC/27.
Endy's a nice little stopgap for when Moises Alou inevitably goes on the disabled list. He filled in nicely a couple of years ago, and he will always have a special place in Mets fans' hearts for stealing a home run from Scott Rolen in game seven of the 2006 NLCS. And everyone likes to pull for the little guy. He has absolutely no power, but he always plays hard and will surprise us with the occasional home run. He's an outstanding defensive outfielder and will come in late in many games as a defensive replacement to spare Alou's rickety knees any excess punishment. All in all he's not a bad guy to have around.
Carlos Beltran:
Marcel: .271 BA, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 18 SB, .355 OBP, .498 SLG, .853 OPS, 100 BA+, 105 OBP+, 117 SLG+, 112 OPS+, 116 SB+.
CHONE: .271 BA, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 23 SB, .373 OBP, .496 SLG, .869 OPS, 103 BA+, 117 OBP+, 127 SLG+, 122 OPS+, 124 SB+.
ZiPS: .261 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 15 SB, .347 OBP, .476 SLG, .823 OPS, 5.9 RC/27, 103 BA+, 109 OBP+, 121 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 134 SB+, 140 RC/27+.
Bill James: .275 BA, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 23 SB, .364 OBP, .515 SLG, .879 OPS, 6.73 RC/27.
I feel like Beltran is the forgotten man in this Mets lineup (as much as a man making $119 million can be forgotten); he's just so quiet and unobtrusive. Everyone marvels at Wright's youth, and Reyes's excitement, and Delgado's smelliness from last year, but Beltran really proves his worth day after day. He plays an excellent center field, steals bases, and hits for power. I think the Marcel and ZiPS projections are a bit low, and James might be a bit high, but if Carlos can put up an OPS of .850 and hit 30 home runs, we'll be very happy.
Damion Easley:
Marcel: .250 BA, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 3 SB, .325 OBP, .414 SLG, .740 OPS, 93 BA+, 96 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
CHONE: .249 BA, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, .329 OBP, .402 SLG, .731 OPS, 95 BA+, 103 OBP+, 103 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 97 SB+.
ZiPS: .242 BA, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB, .321 OBP, .392 SLG, .713 OPS, 4.3 RC/27, 95 BA+, 101 OBP+, 100 SLG+, 100 OPS+, 102 RC/27+.
Bill James: .235 BA, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .326 OBP, .395 SLG, .721 OPS, 3.95 RC/27.
Ruben Gotay:
Marcel: .272 BA, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 4 SB, .337 OBP, .415 SLG, .752 OPS, 101 BA+, 100 OBP+, 98 SLG+, 98 OPS+.
CHONE: .251 BA, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB, .315 OBP, .373 SLG, .688 OPS, 96 BA+, 99 OBP+, 95 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
ZiPS: .245 BA, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .304 OBP, .361 SLG, .665 OPS, 3.6 RC/27, 96 BA+, 96 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 94 OPS+, 86 RC/27+.
Bill James: .258 BA, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB, .321 OBP, .406 SLG, .727 OPS, 4.33 RC/27.
Marlon Anderson:
Marcel: .278 BA, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 6 SB, .335 OBP, .443 SLG, .778 OPS, 103BA+, 99 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 102 OPS+.
CHONE: .267 BA, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 5 SB, .322 OBP, .419 SLG, .741 OPS, 102 BA+, 101 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 104 OPS+.
ZiPS: .257 BA, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB, .319 OBP, .410 SLG, .729 OPS, 4.4 RC/27, 101 BA+, 100 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 105 RC/27+.
Bill James: .262 BA, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 3 SB, .323 OBP, .402 SLG, .725 OPS, 4.57 RC/27.
Easley, Gotay, and Anderson are going to be the Mets top utility guys. They can play the infield and the outfield, and they can be used to benefit from the platoon advantage. They'll be good for a little pop off the bench, and will fill in nicely when Castillo, Delgado, Beltran, and Church need breaks or get injured. This is really shaping up to be be a solid bench. I should do some research on play from non-starters from recent successful teams.
Ryan Church:
Marcel: .274 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 6 SB, .350 OBP, .465 SLG, .815 OPS, 102 BA+, 104 OBP+, 109 SLG+, 107 OPS+.
CHONE: .244 BA, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, .324 OBP, .414 SLG, .738 OPS, 93 BA+, 102 OBP+, 106 SLG+, 104 OPS.
ZiPS: .272 BA, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB, .351 OBP, .469 SLG, .820 OPS, 5.7 RC/27, 107 BA+, 110 OBP+, 120 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 135 RC/27+.
Bill James: .273 BA, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .353 OBP, .463 SLG, .816 OPS, 5.71 RC/27.
For my in-depth Ryan Church analysis, see my post from November 20th, 2007, entitled "Church v. Hunter."
Mets Pitching Totals:
Marcel: 4.20 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 104 WHIP+, 109 K/BB+, 113 K/9+, 103 BB/9+, 103 HR/9+.
CHONE: 3.84 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 124 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 105 BB/9+, 106 HR/9+, 136 RoR+.
ZiPS: 4.25 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 125 K/BB+, 117 K/9+, 98 BB/9+, 110 HR/9+.
Bill James: 3.83 ERA, 1.281 WHIP.
By all accounts, this staff will match up with the best in the league. It's clearly the best staff in the NL East, and it will be interesting to see how it matches up with the staffs in the NL West, namely the staffs of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres. Either way, what was considered a weakness in the team last season is now a strength, especially if the pitchers can stay healthy.
Mets Hitting Totals:
Marcel: .278 BA, .348 OBP, .446 SLG, .793 OPS, 103 BA+, 103 OBP+, 105 SLG+, 104 OPS+.
CHONE: .269 BA, .338 OBP, .419 SLG, .757 OPS, 103 BA+, 106 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 107 OPS+.
ZiPS: .251 BA, .341 OBP, .392 SLG, .733 OPS, 99 BA+, 107 OBP+, 100 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 119 RC/27+.
Bill James: .279 BA, .325 OBP, .453 SLG, .778 OPS, 5.31 RC/27.
I'm going to ignore the ZiPS projection because it has the most players on it. It gives projections for many players that probably will not see any major league plate appearances this year. The other projections show that the Mets' lineup will be above average all around. Again, they need to get good production out of Carlos Delgado and they need to stay healthy, but I guess I can say that about any team. Look for the Mets to go through some cold stretches, but the pitching should hold up its end of the bargain and minimize these cold stretches.
Final Bold Preseason Prediction: The Mets won 88 games last year, and that included a horrible month of September. I predict that the Mets will win 96 games and lose 66 games and win the NL East. Beyond that, who can say? The playoffs are a crapshoot anyway, right?
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Blocking the Box
Just a heads up: the big Mets post is on the way. I'm still doing research and some analysis, so hopefully it'll be thorough and robust.
Anyway, an incident on the road last night reminds me of another driving story. First let's recap yesterday's events:
I was intending to go home after work, but I hate taking public transportation between the East Side and the Heights, az I usually just go back to my apartment, change, and then drive to the East Side. I had a lot of dirty clothes (comes with the territory when you have to wear a suit to work every day), so I needed to make a quick cleaners run. Az I tossed my clothes into the car and drove up to Monarch on Ft. Washington and 187th Street. I dropped off all the jazz and then decided to drive south on Ft. Wash to 178th Street where I would make a left and head down to Amsterdam. I heard on the radio that there was police activity on the George Washington Bridge, so I figured there might be a little congestion getting past the entrance on 179th Street. Hah! "A little congestion!" Famous last words right? Well, there wouldn't have been nearly as much congestion if people weren't so stupid. The people in the cars driving westwards on 179th Street towards the bridge all assumed that since the traffic on the bridge was moving so slowly, they had the right of way over the cars driving north and south. So they mercilessly and selfishly blocked the box preventing cars from getting by. It would have been fine if it were just one jerk; it happens. But EVERY SINGLE CAR did the same thing. I literally waited at the same green light three times because zero cars could get by. And by the time the cars moved they had a green light again and the cars behind got caught in the box again. It's a vicious cycle; "oh, that guy is blocking the street because he wanted to get through the light before it changed, so I can do it too." It's like the traffic equivalent of ma'aras ayin. It was a freakin' disaster. On the bright side, since there were so few cars getting across the bridge in either direction there was almost no traffic on the Harlem River Drive southbound, az I actually ended up getting home earlier than I normally would. Funny how things work out sometimes.
Anyway, that reminded me of another fun-filled driving event in the Heights. Remember when they started using those extendo-accordion-type city buses? Well, a couple of years ago I was returning to the city from a wedding? An engagement party? No nafka mina there. Anyway, one of my passengers requested to be let off at the subway station on 181st Street and St. Nicholas Avenue. No problem. Az I get off the bridge and head east to St. Nick, and then make a left to go north. Because of traffic on 181st Street, it took literally 20 minutes to drive two blocks. I mean my passenger got out after like five, but I was still caught. And here was the problem: 181st is SUPPOSED to be a big street. There are SUPPOSED to be two lanes, but everyone decides that they can double park, az there's really only one lane open. This makes it very difficult for buses (which travel on 181st because, again, it's SUPPOSED to be a big street) to get by, and since they're stopping anyway to drop off/pick up new travelers anyway, things don't move very quickly over there. So there I am, sitting on St. Nick between 180th and 181st and when the light turns green none of the cars going north can get by because the buttocks of one of the extendo-accordion-type buses is blocking us. Okay, I can understand. It took two lights, but the bus finally moved. But just as our light was about to turn green, ANOTHER extendo-accordion-type bus did EXACTLY the same thing as the one in front of it. And nothing is more infuriating than two people doing the same dumb thing twice in a row. I mean don't get me wrong; I do stupid things all the time, but I never make the same mistake twice, and certainly not in rapid succession. Just because you are a bus, and you provide a valuable service to the citizens of the city, it does not mean that you are allowed to cause gridlock.
Okay, that's my driving rant of the day. Stay tuned for the big baseball post. I know you're all excited.
Anyway, an incident on the road last night reminds me of another driving story. First let's recap yesterday's events:
I was intending to go home after work, but I hate taking public transportation between the East Side and the Heights, az I usually just go back to my apartment, change, and then drive to the East Side. I had a lot of dirty clothes (comes with the territory when you have to wear a suit to work every day), so I needed to make a quick cleaners run. Az I tossed my clothes into the car and drove up to Monarch on Ft. Washington and 187th Street. I dropped off all the jazz and then decided to drive south on Ft. Wash to 178th Street where I would make a left and head down to Amsterdam. I heard on the radio that there was police activity on the George Washington Bridge, so I figured there might be a little congestion getting past the entrance on 179th Street. Hah! "A little congestion!" Famous last words right? Well, there wouldn't have been nearly as much congestion if people weren't so stupid. The people in the cars driving westwards on 179th Street towards the bridge all assumed that since the traffic on the bridge was moving so slowly, they had the right of way over the cars driving north and south. So they mercilessly and selfishly blocked the box preventing cars from getting by. It would have been fine if it were just one jerk; it happens. But EVERY SINGLE CAR did the same thing. I literally waited at the same green light three times because zero cars could get by. And by the time the cars moved they had a green light again and the cars behind got caught in the box again. It's a vicious cycle; "oh, that guy is blocking the street because he wanted to get through the light before it changed, so I can do it too." It's like the traffic equivalent of ma'aras ayin. It was a freakin' disaster. On the bright side, since there were so few cars getting across the bridge in either direction there was almost no traffic on the Harlem River Drive southbound, az I actually ended up getting home earlier than I normally would. Funny how things work out sometimes.
Anyway, that reminded me of another fun-filled driving event in the Heights. Remember when they started using those extendo-accordion-type city buses? Well, a couple of years ago I was returning to the city from a wedding? An engagement party? No nafka mina there. Anyway, one of my passengers requested to be let off at the subway station on 181st Street and St. Nicholas Avenue. No problem. Az I get off the bridge and head east to St. Nick, and then make a left to go north. Because of traffic on 181st Street, it took literally 20 minutes to drive two blocks. I mean my passenger got out after like five, but I was still caught. And here was the problem: 181st is SUPPOSED to be a big street. There are SUPPOSED to be two lanes, but everyone decides that they can double park, az there's really only one lane open. This makes it very difficult for buses (which travel on 181st because, again, it's SUPPOSED to be a big street) to get by, and since they're stopping anyway to drop off/pick up new travelers anyway, things don't move very quickly over there. So there I am, sitting on St. Nick between 180th and 181st and when the light turns green none of the cars going north can get by because the buttocks of one of the extendo-accordion-type buses is blocking us. Okay, I can understand. It took two lights, but the bus finally moved. But just as our light was about to turn green, ANOTHER extendo-accordion-type bus did EXACTLY the same thing as the one in front of it. And nothing is more infuriating than two people doing the same dumb thing twice in a row. I mean don't get me wrong; I do stupid things all the time, but I never make the same mistake twice, and certainly not in rapid succession. Just because you are a bus, and you provide a valuable service to the citizens of the city, it does not mean that you are allowed to cause gridlock.
Okay, that's my driving rant of the day. Stay tuned for the big baseball post. I know you're all excited.
Monday, February 04, 2008
So... Confused...
I mentioned in my earlier post that I read between 20 and 25 baseball blogs a day. Some of my favorite writers are Joe Sheehen of baseballprospectus.com and baseballanalysts.com, Rich Lederer of baseballanalysts.com, everyone on firejoemorgan.com, and Rob Neyer and Keith Law on ESPN. Law also has his own blog called "The Dish," which also includes his various ramblings on things unrelated to sports, mostly cooking. Az I was browsing The Dish this afternoon, and I noticed that one of the labels he uses is "Grammar," so I clicked on it, and four posts showed up. In one of them he makes fun of the New York Times copy-editors for missing something:
From the times: "...And the Giants, boosted by a 7-1 road record and the knowledge that none of the five top seeds are currently on even a two-game winning streak, see reason to view their postseason outlook optimistically."
Law: “None” takes a singular verb - none of the top five seeds IS currently on a two-game winning streak. So that’s bad, but not uncommon. What’s awful is that some copyeditor at the Times liked that sentence and used it for a pull quote, repeating the grammatical error...
Schmutter: Now, I'm pretty sure that using "none" with a singular verb is technically correct because the word "none" is an archaic contraction of "no one," which would definitely take a singular verb. However, I'm positive that these days the word "none" should ALWAYS take a plural verb. How can I respect a writer who corrects grammar incorrectly? I will have to do some research on that, but again, I'm positive I'm right.
Meanwhile in another of his grammar posts, he comes up with this gem:
Newsday: It’s generation-spanning plot combines one of the season’s favorite themes (the guileful acts of children) with one of its trendiest (turmoil in Afghanistan). And it premieres on the heels of nettlesome publicity involving stage-parent outrage and threats of bodily harm targeted at its youngest stars. … Like it’s author, “The Kite Runner’s” morose protagonist is the son of a Kabul diplomat who relocates to California as the Russians begin their incursions into Afghanistan.
Law: I deleted one paragraph in the middle, but in the span of five sentences, Jan Stuart manages to use the correct “its” twice and the incorrect one twice, even though every instance called for the same word (”its” without its apostrophe). This has to be one of the easiest grammatical rules to remember, and I see it screwed up all the freaking time. All Stuart had to do was remember Strong Bad’s helpful song:
If you want it to be possessive, it’s just “I-T-S.” But, if it’s supposed to be a contraction then it’s “I-T-apostrophe-S,” … scalawag.
Yes, Law just quoted Strong Bad. I don't know what to do! First he performs a MAJOR grammatical faux-pas, but then he quotes the King of Grammar Corrections himself! It's like that Halloween costume commentary by Strong Bad where he shows a picture of an attractive girl dressed up as Homestar. Hilarity ensues:
STRONG BAD: Dar, dar dar dar dar DA-A!! So confused... what to think?? Hot Homestar?!? My brain is splitting in half!
HOMESTAR RUNNER: Oh, hey Strong Bad!
STRONG BAD: Daa! You get outta here!
HOMESTAR RUNNER: Whoa, you sound tense. Do you want me to give you, like, a back rub or anything?
STRONG BAD: Uh... yes! No! I... don't know! Next picture, next picture!!
HOMESTAR RUNNER: I think this is the last one, sweetie.
STRONG BAD: WAAAAA!! {trails off as though he's running away}
HOMESTAR RUNNER: I should probably stop calling everybody "sweetie".
Okay, enough for today, sweetie.
From the times: "...And the Giants, boosted by a 7-1 road record and the knowledge that none of the five top seeds are currently on even a two-game winning streak, see reason to view their postseason outlook optimistically."
Law: “None” takes a singular verb - none of the top five seeds IS currently on a two-game winning streak. So that’s bad, but not uncommon. What’s awful is that some copyeditor at the Times liked that sentence and used it for a pull quote, repeating the grammatical error...
Schmutter: Now, I'm pretty sure that using "none" with a singular verb is technically correct because the word "none" is an archaic contraction of "no one," which would definitely take a singular verb. However, I'm positive that these days the word "none" should ALWAYS take a plural verb. How can I respect a writer who corrects grammar incorrectly? I will have to do some research on that, but again, I'm positive I'm right.
Meanwhile in another of his grammar posts, he comes up with this gem:
Newsday: It’s generation-spanning plot combines one of the season’s favorite themes (the guileful acts of children) with one of its trendiest (turmoil in Afghanistan). And it premieres on the heels of nettlesome publicity involving stage-parent outrage and threats of bodily harm targeted at its youngest stars. … Like it’s author, “The Kite Runner’s” morose protagonist is the son of a Kabul diplomat who relocates to California as the Russians begin their incursions into Afghanistan.
Law: I deleted one paragraph in the middle, but in the span of five sentences, Jan Stuart manages to use the correct “its” twice and the incorrect one twice, even though every instance called for the same word (”its” without its apostrophe). This has to be one of the easiest grammatical rules to remember, and I see it screwed up all the freaking time. All Stuart had to do was remember Strong Bad’s helpful song:
If you want it to be possessive, it’s just “I-T-S.” But, if it’s supposed to be a contraction then it’s “I-T-apostrophe-S,” … scalawag.
Yes, Law just quoted Strong Bad. I don't know what to do! First he performs a MAJOR grammatical faux-pas, but then he quotes the King of Grammar Corrections himself! It's like that Halloween costume commentary by Strong Bad where he shows a picture of an attractive girl dressed up as Homestar. Hilarity ensues:
STRONG BAD: Dar, dar dar dar dar DA-A!! So confused... what to think?? Hot Homestar?!? My brain is splitting in half!
HOMESTAR RUNNER: Oh, hey Strong Bad!
STRONG BAD: Daa! You get outta here!
HOMESTAR RUNNER: Whoa, you sound tense. Do you want me to give you, like, a back rub or anything?
STRONG BAD: Uh... yes! No! I... don't know! Next picture, next picture!!
HOMESTAR RUNNER: I think this is the last one, sweetie.
STRONG BAD: WAAAAA!! {trails off as though he's running away}
HOMESTAR RUNNER: I should probably stop calling everybody "sweetie".
Okay, enough for today, sweetie.
To Be a Writer
Here I sit, humbly, at my bizarre looking keyboard and U.S. Trust Company owned CPU and CRT monitor, attempting to transmit my thoughts on an amazing week of sports. Those of you who know me would describe me as a generally laid back fellow who likes sports (especially baseball), mathematics, and grammar, and who occasionally has the audacity to put his ideas down in print. I read a lot. Whether it's a few stolen minutes of Torah on the subway, a dozen pages of the latest fantasy book, or one of 20-25 sports blogs that can be found in my internet bookmarks, there are almost always some words somewhere that are being seen by my eyes and interpreted by my brain. When one is exposed to so many authors on a daily basis, one tends to notice the varying styles of said writers. I find that when I write, I usually do so in a similar manner to the one in which I speak. Most of the good sports writers out there write the same way. Granted, these people can't be blamed because a statistical analysis generally does not provide one with much opportunity for linguistic creativity. On Friday, I read a post on baseballanalysts.com that honestly gave me chills. I don't know how he did it, but the writer had me totally engrossed in his short story. Maybe it was the words he used; his verbs, adjectives, and adverbs were all so powerful. I'm going to paste some of his sentences here in the hopes that I might soak in some of his expertise. His name is Russ McQueen, and here is how he writes:
-The new guy took the mound and things changed. An air of expectancy took hold, and the place got quiet. Sounds were reduced only to those necessary. It felt like a premonition of something terrible, or terribly great, like right before a big fish takes your lure and you know in your gut he's about to hit.
The first batter took his stance. Fast ball, strike one called. Not bad, right down at the knees and on the inside corner. With considerable zip. Not the one he wanted to hit, I thought. But then the new guy threw something I had never seen before. It was gorgeous, and it was terrible, and I wasn't sure I had seen it correctly. Fast like a heater, but in front of the plate it made a wicked dive, down and a little bit away from the batter, who buckled at the knees. Strike two called. Hearts beat faster – I know mine did.
"Throw it again," I prayed.
He did, only this time the batter mustered up a feeble excuse for a swing and made his retreat back to the bench, where he joined other mortals to watch the continuing carnage.
Five more up, five more down. One guy grounded out, but everyone else fell to that monstrous, terrifying curve ball.
I've seen the Grand Canyon and the Grand Tetons. I've walked into Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park and Wrigley Field on a Sunday afternoon. I've been to dozens of countries all over the world and seen it all. But I have never seen anything more riveting than that curve ball on that one cool, gray Saturday morning.
I have always remembered that awesome pitch as a big hammer the new guy swung and pounded batters with. It certainly went way beyond any fair deal I ever witnessed. To say "he threw a curve" was to understate the terror of the act. However ordinary the new guy looked to begin with, to me he had become substantially taller, heavier, and more dangerous.
For a moment there was no one sitting between me and Mr. Roebuck. "That's some kind of a curve ball," I managed, trying to make it sound as casual as I could so Mr. Roebuck wouldn't think I was overly impressed.
"Son, that's a pure yellow hammer," replied Roebuck. "And that is Bert Blyleven."
end
That kind of writing makes my heart beat slightly faster even now, after reading it three or four times. Apparently I need to use words like "pray" and "terrible" and "riveting" and "carnage" and "monstrous."
Meanwhile, there are a few other things I've read with which I'd like to bore you for a little while. Here is an excerpt from the firejoemorgan.com post about an article by Bill Plaschke. Plaschke's words are in bold and Ken Tremendous's are not:
-[Unitas] was football's Babe Ruth, and Bart Starr was its Lou Gehrig, and Sammy Baugh was its Ty Cobb, and Joe Montana was its Joe DiMaggio.
Dan Fouts was its George Sisler. Rich Gannon was its Paul Molitor. Rob Johnson was its George Kendrick. Jim Zorn was its Mark Loretta. Al Toon was its Wil Cordero. Marc Edwards was its La Marr Hoyt. Joe DeLamielleure was its Rick Rhoden. And, most obviously of all, Billy Joe DuPree was its Kevin Tapani. That's just a no-brainer.
Tom Brady is football's, well, um, Alex Rodriguez....right. He's the best player in the game.
Except that Alex Rodriguez, as boneheads like you are fond of pointing out, has never won a championship. So defend this statement, please.
end
The reasons I pasted this excerpt are a) because it's freakin' hilarious, and b) when I sent it to my brother, he responded by saying that I'm the Paul Assenmacher of bloggers. I still maintain that I'm the Juan Berenguer of bloggers, but that's neither here nor there.
I imagine there are two small items that my loyal readers (hello, hey, what's cookin'?, how's it shakin'? 'Sup, my man? There, now I've greeted all five of you) are expecting me to address. I will do so in chronological order. Bear in mind that I won't be saying much because most of the stuff I would say has already been said.
On Tuesday/Friday, the New York Metropolitans traded for Johan Santana, the best pitcher in all the known universe. It was a great deal; I'm very excited; he's going to make a huge difference. I woke up on Saturday morning to an argument between two of my roommates. I listened for a while, but I didn't actually join the discussion until I heard one of them say "how much of a difference can he make?" I was going to dive into a Win Shares analysis, but my brain wasn't entirely functioning yet. The point is, if Santana were on the Mets last year they would have made the playoffs. Period. It's as simple as that. Yes, the Mets are paying him an exorbitant amount of coin, but think about it for a second. I'm too lazy to do the actual math right now, but I've read that the average team pays between $4 and $5 million per win. If Johan Santana is worth five more wins over the course of the season than the average pitcher, then paying him $22 to $23 million is not really that ridiculous. If a slightly above average pitcher like Barry Zito can command $18 million a year for seven years, then $23 million for the best pitcher in existence is really a bargain. Okay, enough. If you want to read more analysis on the trade, read Rob Neyer's blog on ESPN, or aarongleeman.com, or beyondtheboxscore.com, or thehardballtimes.com. They're all way way better than me.
The New York Giants won the Super Bowl yesterday. I remember after the Super Bowl last year, I wrote that I can't wait for the Jets to play in one. Sitting with my friends in front of the TV yesterday was a riveting experience. The tension in the room was palpable. I'm not a Giants fan, but I was nervous all game too. I can only fathom how the Giants fans must have been feeling. I really don't know what else to say. I'm glad the Giants won; I'm glad the Patriots lost; I want the Jets to win. That's it and that's all.
I'm sure I'll have a lot more to say about Johan Santana and the Mets in the coming weeks. I'll mix in a few non-sports posts too. Peace.
-The new guy took the mound and things changed. An air of expectancy took hold, and the place got quiet. Sounds were reduced only to those necessary. It felt like a premonition of something terrible, or terribly great, like right before a big fish takes your lure and you know in your gut he's about to hit.
The first batter took his stance. Fast ball, strike one called. Not bad, right down at the knees and on the inside corner. With considerable zip. Not the one he wanted to hit, I thought. But then the new guy threw something I had never seen before. It was gorgeous, and it was terrible, and I wasn't sure I had seen it correctly. Fast like a heater, but in front of the plate it made a wicked dive, down and a little bit away from the batter, who buckled at the knees. Strike two called. Hearts beat faster – I know mine did.
"Throw it again," I prayed.
He did, only this time the batter mustered up a feeble excuse for a swing and made his retreat back to the bench, where he joined other mortals to watch the continuing carnage.
Five more up, five more down. One guy grounded out, but everyone else fell to that monstrous, terrifying curve ball.
I've seen the Grand Canyon and the Grand Tetons. I've walked into Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park and Wrigley Field on a Sunday afternoon. I've been to dozens of countries all over the world and seen it all. But I have never seen anything more riveting than that curve ball on that one cool, gray Saturday morning.
I have always remembered that awesome pitch as a big hammer the new guy swung and pounded batters with. It certainly went way beyond any fair deal I ever witnessed. To say "he threw a curve" was to understate the terror of the act. However ordinary the new guy looked to begin with, to me he had become substantially taller, heavier, and more dangerous.
For a moment there was no one sitting between me and Mr. Roebuck. "That's some kind of a curve ball," I managed, trying to make it sound as casual as I could so Mr. Roebuck wouldn't think I was overly impressed.
"Son, that's a pure yellow hammer," replied Roebuck. "And that is Bert Blyleven."
end
That kind of writing makes my heart beat slightly faster even now, after reading it three or four times. Apparently I need to use words like "pray" and "terrible" and "riveting" and "carnage" and "monstrous."
Meanwhile, there are a few other things I've read with which I'd like to bore you for a little while. Here is an excerpt from the firejoemorgan.com post about an article by Bill Plaschke. Plaschke's words are in bold and Ken Tremendous's are not:
-[Unitas] was football's Babe Ruth, and Bart Starr was its Lou Gehrig, and Sammy Baugh was its Ty Cobb, and Joe Montana was its Joe DiMaggio.
Dan Fouts was its George Sisler. Rich Gannon was its Paul Molitor. Rob Johnson was its George Kendrick. Jim Zorn was its Mark Loretta. Al Toon was its Wil Cordero. Marc Edwards was its La Marr Hoyt. Joe DeLamielleure was its Rick Rhoden. And, most obviously of all, Billy Joe DuPree was its Kevin Tapani. That's just a no-brainer.
Tom Brady is football's, well, um, Alex Rodriguez....right. He's the best player in the game.
Except that Alex Rodriguez, as boneheads like you are fond of pointing out, has never won a championship. So defend this statement, please.
end
The reasons I pasted this excerpt are a) because it's freakin' hilarious, and b) when I sent it to my brother, he responded by saying that I'm the Paul Assenmacher of bloggers. I still maintain that I'm the Juan Berenguer of bloggers, but that's neither here nor there.
I imagine there are two small items that my loyal readers (hello, hey, what's cookin'?, how's it shakin'? 'Sup, my man? There, now I've greeted all five of you) are expecting me to address. I will do so in chronological order. Bear in mind that I won't be saying much because most of the stuff I would say has already been said.
On Tuesday/Friday, the New York Metropolitans traded for Johan Santana, the best pitcher in all the known universe. It was a great deal; I'm very excited; he's going to make a huge difference. I woke up on Saturday morning to an argument between two of my roommates. I listened for a while, but I didn't actually join the discussion until I heard one of them say "how much of a difference can he make?" I was going to dive into a Win Shares analysis, but my brain wasn't entirely functioning yet. The point is, if Santana were on the Mets last year they would have made the playoffs. Period. It's as simple as that. Yes, the Mets are paying him an exorbitant amount of coin, but think about it for a second. I'm too lazy to do the actual math right now, but I've read that the average team pays between $4 and $5 million per win. If Johan Santana is worth five more wins over the course of the season than the average pitcher, then paying him $22 to $23 million is not really that ridiculous. If a slightly above average pitcher like Barry Zito can command $18 million a year for seven years, then $23 million for the best pitcher in existence is really a bargain. Okay, enough. If you want to read more analysis on the trade, read Rob Neyer's blog on ESPN, or aarongleeman.com, or beyondtheboxscore.com, or thehardballtimes.com. They're all way way better than me.
The New York Giants won the Super Bowl yesterday. I remember after the Super Bowl last year, I wrote that I can't wait for the Jets to play in one. Sitting with my friends in front of the TV yesterday was a riveting experience. The tension in the room was palpable. I'm not a Giants fan, but I was nervous all game too. I can only fathom how the Giants fans must have been feeling. I really don't know what else to say. I'm glad the Giants won; I'm glad the Patriots lost; I want the Jets to win. That's it and that's all.
I'm sure I'll have a lot more to say about Johan Santana and the Mets in the coming weeks. I'll mix in a few non-sports posts too. Peace.
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