I'm gonna mix it up this time and do a little football. This is not because I have nothing to say about baseball (don't get me started), rather it's because I just heard something absolutely maddening on the radio. I'm listening to the Michael Kay show, as I do every day, and I have grown to enjoy this show very much over the past ten months. I don't always agree with what Mr. Kay says, but at least he gives a viable argument and usually doesn't sound like a complete moron. But just now, Michael said something along the lines of (and I paraphrase): "The Jets lost a lot by winning that last game against the Chiefs. If they lost they would have gotten the third pick in the draft and been able to draft a top flight quarterback or running back. Instead, they settled for the 6th pick."
The two players about whom Mr. Kay is speaking are Matt Ryan, quarterback out of Boston College, who was the third pick in the draft by the Atlanta Falcons, and Darren McFadden, running back out of Arkansas, who was the fourth pick in the draft by the Oakland Raiders. I have no doubt that these two players are immensely talented, however, recent history has shown us that quarterbacks and running backs who were drafted early have had records of success which are highly suspect. Those well versed in football will know what I mean when I mention Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Andre Ware, Kijana Carter, Curtis Enis, Tim Couch, David Carr, and Joey Harrington, to name a few. These were all highly touted, and highly drafted college quarterbacks and running backs who never were or have yet to be successful in the NFL. Granted, there are always highly drafted players who do succeed, including Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, etc. but there is much evidence to show that these players have succeeded in large part because of the offensive linemen behind whom they play. Anyway, it certainly seems like drafting a quarterback or a running back with a high pick is risky business indeed. It seems that it is much safer to draft an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman/linebacker, since their skill sets seem to be more easily transferable to the pros.
I'd like to point to the two (arguably) most successful teams in the NFL last year. The New York Giants and the New England Patriots were ranked first and second, respectively, in team sacks (53 and 47). The Patriots were ranked fifth in fewest sacks allowed. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, and Laurence Maroney, were all among the league leaders in yards per carry. All of these point to superb play from the offensive and defensive lines and linebackers from these teams. The Patriots' offensive line allowed Tom Brady to set the record for touchdowns in a season. Granted, you do need an excellent quarterback to accomplish such a task, but even Brady wasn't a high draft pick (199th in 2000). With the outstanding play of the offensive line and the quarterback, the Patriots were able to win every single one of their games in the regular season. The only game they lost was the Super Bowl, in which their offensive line was outplayed by the Giants' defensive line and their linebackers. One would be hard-pressed to show that the Giants won because of their quarterback (19/34, 255 Yds, 2 TDs, 1 Int).
What I'm trying to show is that the Jets did well this off-season. They filled the holes they had and strengthened themselves on their offensive and defensive lines. The signed left guard Alan Faneca, a perennial pro-bowler, to a five-year contract. This will only help their young left tackle, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, to achieve the lofty goals the Jets expected him to reach when they drafted him two seasons ago. Nick Mangold, the Jet center, has proven himself to be an outstanding player, and with the three of them anchoring the offensive line, Kellen Clemens should be given plenty of time to throw the football. He ran into a lot of trouble by having to scramble all the time last season.
The defensive line and linebacking corps received significant upgrades this off-season as well. They obtained nose tackle Kris Jenkins from Carolina, and signed right outside linebacker Calvin Pace. With those two in place, including the newly drafted Vernon Gholston at defensive end, the Jets have an excellent blend of youth and experience on defense. With Jenkins and Pace joining Eric Barton, David Harris, Shaun Ellis, and Bryan Thomas, the Jets should be far better in preventing the run and in attacking the quarterback. In the secondary, Darelle Revis, last year's first round pick, will only get better, and he is joined by Dwight Lowery, whom the Jets drafted in the fourth round. I would venture to say that this team is better now than it would be had it drafted McFadden or Ryan. Remember when everyone laughed at the Houston Texans for drafting Mario Williams ahead of Reggie Bush? Meanwhile, Williams made mincemeat of offensive linemen and quarterbacks alike last season while Bush struggled in his second season.
I would love to hear Michael Kay change his tune this season. But that's still several months away. Meanwhile, it's back to baseball.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Hamavdil Bein Kodesh L'Kodesh
After the post I'll let you all decide if there's some deeper meaning behind the title. It'll be like how people think J.R.R. Tolkien wrote the Lord of the Rings as an allegory of World War II even though he strenuously denies that claim. This is an entirely uninteresting line of discussion; let's just move on.
On Sunday night, for the first time, my family had a Passover seder at my brother's apartment. He makes one every year and invites all of his friends who are around. Now, I mentioned in my anti-Passover rant last year (More Road Rage, April 11th, 2007) that one of the reasons I dislike the holiday is that everyone always spends it with their families so there's very little variety from year to year. Az this year was a little different. My brother started at around 7:00, az I started off over there, went across the street to synagogue, came back for half an hour, went back to synagogue, and then came back to my brother's and caught up to them. Now some of you are probably wondering about a few aspects of the story. For those of you who aren't, I'll supply the questions:
a) Why would my brother have friends who are around? Why wouldn't they be having the seder with their families?
b) Why did they start so early?
Well, most of my brother's friends are not of the Mosaic faith. However, many of them have been going to my brother's seder for several years. He asks that they each bring a bottle of wine (Kosher for Passover of course), and a "dvar torah." By that I mean that they each bring some kind of reading from a newspaper or a book, or something they found online that is somehow related to Passover or freedom. When they reach the point at the seder when each person's reading is appropriate, they read. And six hours later they're done. This absolutely blew my mind. I don't even think I could get my JEWISH friends to have a holiday meal with me for that long, especially if they each had to bring wine and a dvar torah. I find that troublesome. I guess that being observant these past eleven years can maybe desensitize me from the beauty and wonder of Judaism. I have to remember that there's a reason we do all of these rituals and follow all of these rules. Hopefully next year I'll be looking forward to Passover instead of having my usual sense of foreboding. Props all around to my big bro, his wife, and his friends. Best Passover I've had in a long time.
Here's a slightly amusing anecdote from yesterday. I had to e-mail someone at work to get some data from him, so I looked him up in the directory. Let's call him Bloggy McSchmuttface. So I see a Bloggy C. McSchmuttface in there, az I sent him my request. He e-mails me back and says he's the wrong person. I apologized to him, and then about a minute later a get another e-mail from Bloggy McSchmuttface with an attachment, asking me if these are the data I need. Meanwhile, I went to ask my boss how I can contact the real Bloggy McSchmuttface. She finds his e-mail address, and it turns out that his actual name is Curtis B. (Bloggy) McSchmuttface. Great, az I go ahead and send my original request to Curtis. A minute later I get a phone call from Bloggy McSchmuttface telling me that he sent me an e-mail with an attachment, so why am I calling him now? I'm not gonna go through the entire embarrassing discussion where I ask him which Bloggy he is, but to make a long story short, the first Bloggy that I e-mailed ended up forwarding my request to the real Curtis Bloggy, so he's the one who sent me the attachment in the first place. I understand that was a confusing story, but imagine how confusing it must have been for me while it was happening!
I was doing my usual baseball blog reading yesterday when I came across an article that listed all sorts of different statistics that random writers/bloggers/statisticians presented over the years. They all involved some kind of measurement of bases as compared to at-bats, plate appearances, or outs. It turns out that a man named Bill Gilbert came up with a stat called "Bases per Plate Appearance" several years ago. He calculates it differently than I do, but it would still be unkind of me to use his title without showing the proper credit. Now since the purpose of my statistic was to determine if it's worthwhile to always walk any batter in a certain situation, I did not include double plays, stolen bases, and caught stealing in the formula. I will continue to use the same name in any future research, but I just thought I should mention that the name is not exactly original.
Many of you have read in this space about my (mis)adventures in driving. I contantly complain that drivers are too wrapped up in their own selfishness to be courteous to other drivers. A lot of people have told me things like "well if it bothers you so much when people do that stuff, why don't you just do it yourself?" You know, like when everyone is exiting from the right lane, so it's all backed up, and then someone speeds in from the center lane and tries to cut in front of all the cars that waited patiently in the right lane. I've definitely mentioned that before. Another thing I hate is when you're driving southbound on the Harlem River Drive the right lane becomes "exit only" at 135th street, but some people will drive on the shoulder to avoid the inevitable congestion that results from three lanes merging into two. Somehow those people never get caught, but I know that if I ever do it I'll get caught. You know what I mean. Here's one more. When you get off the George Washington Bridge's upper level and exit onto 178th street you can either make a left onto Ft. Washington Avenue or continue straight towards Broadway. You cannot make a right onto Ft. Wash because there is traffic coming off the Henry Hudson Parkway. Similarly, if you are coming off the Henry Hudson Parkway, you can either make a right onto Ft. Wash or continue straight towards Broadway, but you are not allowed to make a left onto Ft. Wash because of the aforementioned traffic coming off the bridge. So last night I was getting off the bridge and an SUV that had come from the highway cut me off and made the illegal left onto Ft. Wash, something I've wanted to do many times. And a cop TOTALLY nailed him! It was awesome! Booyah! He was DONE! He was SO DONE! Now don't think I'm reveling in that person's pain, far from it! What I really gained from that experience was the knowledge that not everyone will get away with screwing other drivers. If you drive selfishly you will inevitably pay for it. I can now sleep soundly knowing that the system, while not perfect, works.
On Sunday night, for the first time, my family had a Passover seder at my brother's apartment. He makes one every year and invites all of his friends who are around. Now, I mentioned in my anti-Passover rant last year (More Road Rage, April 11th, 2007) that one of the reasons I dislike the holiday is that everyone always spends it with their families so there's very little variety from year to year. Az this year was a little different. My brother started at around 7:00, az I started off over there, went across the street to synagogue, came back for half an hour, went back to synagogue, and then came back to my brother's and caught up to them. Now some of you are probably wondering about a few aspects of the story. For those of you who aren't, I'll supply the questions:
a) Why would my brother have friends who are around? Why wouldn't they be having the seder with their families?
b) Why did they start so early?
Well, most of my brother's friends are not of the Mosaic faith. However, many of them have been going to my brother's seder for several years. He asks that they each bring a bottle of wine (Kosher for Passover of course), and a "dvar torah." By that I mean that they each bring some kind of reading from a newspaper or a book, or something they found online that is somehow related to Passover or freedom. When they reach the point at the seder when each person's reading is appropriate, they read. And six hours later they're done. This absolutely blew my mind. I don't even think I could get my JEWISH friends to have a holiday meal with me for that long, especially if they each had to bring wine and a dvar torah. I find that troublesome. I guess that being observant these past eleven years can maybe desensitize me from the beauty and wonder of Judaism. I have to remember that there's a reason we do all of these rituals and follow all of these rules. Hopefully next year I'll be looking forward to Passover instead of having my usual sense of foreboding. Props all around to my big bro, his wife, and his friends. Best Passover I've had in a long time.
Here's a slightly amusing anecdote from yesterday. I had to e-mail someone at work to get some data from him, so I looked him up in the directory. Let's call him Bloggy McSchmuttface. So I see a Bloggy C. McSchmuttface in there, az I sent him my request. He e-mails me back and says he's the wrong person. I apologized to him, and then about a minute later a get another e-mail from Bloggy McSchmuttface with an attachment, asking me if these are the data I need. Meanwhile, I went to ask my boss how I can contact the real Bloggy McSchmuttface. She finds his e-mail address, and it turns out that his actual name is Curtis B. (Bloggy) McSchmuttface. Great, az I go ahead and send my original request to Curtis. A minute later I get a phone call from Bloggy McSchmuttface telling me that he sent me an e-mail with an attachment, so why am I calling him now? I'm not gonna go through the entire embarrassing discussion where I ask him which Bloggy he is, but to make a long story short, the first Bloggy that I e-mailed ended up forwarding my request to the real Curtis Bloggy, so he's the one who sent me the attachment in the first place. I understand that was a confusing story, but imagine how confusing it must have been for me while it was happening!
I was doing my usual baseball blog reading yesterday when I came across an article that listed all sorts of different statistics that random writers/bloggers/statisticians presented over the years. They all involved some kind of measurement of bases as compared to at-bats, plate appearances, or outs. It turns out that a man named Bill Gilbert came up with a stat called "Bases per Plate Appearance" several years ago. He calculates it differently than I do, but it would still be unkind of me to use his title without showing the proper credit. Now since the purpose of my statistic was to determine if it's worthwhile to always walk any batter in a certain situation, I did not include double plays, stolen bases, and caught stealing in the formula. I will continue to use the same name in any future research, but I just thought I should mention that the name is not exactly original.
Many of you have read in this space about my (mis)adventures in driving. I contantly complain that drivers are too wrapped up in their own selfishness to be courteous to other drivers. A lot of people have told me things like "well if it bothers you so much when people do that stuff, why don't you just do it yourself?" You know, like when everyone is exiting from the right lane, so it's all backed up, and then someone speeds in from the center lane and tries to cut in front of all the cars that waited patiently in the right lane. I've definitely mentioned that before. Another thing I hate is when you're driving southbound on the Harlem River Drive the right lane becomes "exit only" at 135th street, but some people will drive on the shoulder to avoid the inevitable congestion that results from three lanes merging into two. Somehow those people never get caught, but I know that if I ever do it I'll get caught. You know what I mean. Here's one more. When you get off the George Washington Bridge's upper level and exit onto 178th street you can either make a left onto Ft. Washington Avenue or continue straight towards Broadway. You cannot make a right onto Ft. Wash because there is traffic coming off the Henry Hudson Parkway. Similarly, if you are coming off the Henry Hudson Parkway, you can either make a right onto Ft. Wash or continue straight towards Broadway, but you are not allowed to make a left onto Ft. Wash because of the aforementioned traffic coming off the bridge. So last night I was getting off the bridge and an SUV that had come from the highway cut me off and made the illegal left onto Ft. Wash, something I've wanted to do many times. And a cop TOTALLY nailed him! It was awesome! Booyah! He was DONE! He was SO DONE! Now don't think I'm reveling in that person's pain, far from it! What I really gained from that experience was the knowledge that not everyone will get away with screwing other drivers. If you drive selfishly you will inevitably pay for it. I can now sleep soundly knowing that the system, while not perfect, works.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
More Odds and Ends (Even Odder, Still No End)
So someone suggested that I put labels on my posts so that my readers would be able to read (read: ignore) posts at their leisure. For example, this post would be labeled "baseball," az most of you would choose to ignore it. Go ahead; see if I care.
Yesterday, Alex Rodriguez hit the 521st home run of his career. He is now tied for 15th on the all time list with Willie McCovey and Ted Williams. The next two players he's set to pass are Jimmie Foxx (534 HR) and Mickey Mantle (536 HR). Meanwhile, Greg Maddux of the San Diego Padres has 349 victories on the mound. Among the people he should pass over the next year or two are Roger Clemens (354 Wins), and Hall of Famers Kid Nichols and Pud Galvin (364 Wins), Warren Spahn (363 Wins), and Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson (373 Wins). The A-Rod stuff seems closer to home because we've watched a lot of the players near him play. Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas (and technically Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds) are still active, and we all got to watch Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. Even Mike Schmidt and Reggie Jackson are still recent enough that many of us watched them play or at least saw a lot of their highlights. But still, when we're talking about a guy who's passing some of the all time greats like Jimmie Foxx and Mickey Mantle, you know we're dealing with something special. I mean those guys don't even seem real to me; Williams, Mantle, and Foxx are just legends, stories grandparents tell the kids before bedtime about how things were in the old days. And in this day and age, with pitchers getting far fewer opportunities to win games, it's especially jarring to see the names that Maddux is going to pass. Pud Galvin and Kid Nichols are not real people; Warren Spahn is not a real person; Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson are about as far from real as you can get. Some of these guys were alive around the time of the Civil War. They pitched over 100 years ago. We might as well be talking about people like Robin Hood and King Arthur. The fact that a pitcher today has a chance to pass Christy Mathewson on the all time victory list boggles my mind to no end. I implore you, all you non-baseball fans out there, try to find time to watch Greg Maddux pitch. Even at his advanced age, he's one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball. Watch the way his four-seam fastball tails away from lefties. I know that some day I'm going to tell my children that I watched Greg Maddux pitch live, and if I have my way they will be suitably impressed.
Okay, now it's time to get started on my new statistical fetish. I discussed baseball with my brother over the weekend, and we talked a lot about Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage, so I was in the mood go back to my bases per plate appearance research, even though I don't have platoon split data. Anyway, here's how I figure Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA): I take a players total bases (Singles + 2x Doubles + 3x Triples + 4x Home Runs), and add walks. Then I divide all that by Plate Appearances (At-bats + Walks + Hit by Pitch + Sacrifice bunts + Sacrifice Flies). The reason I use Plate Appearances instead of At-bats is that I'm trying to determine how much a player is worth each time he comes to the plate. It's for the same reason that I add Walks to Total Bases. Finally, the reason I included Sacrifice Bunts into Plate Appearances is that most sluggers don't ever bunt, so it wouldn't hurt their stats, and most players who would be high on the BPA list who would have a number of sacrifices are often "credited" with sacrifices even when they're bunting for hits, az this penalizes them. I calculated the BPA for all players with 100 or more plate appearances in 2007, and here are some notable findings:
- Barry Bonds had the highest BPA overall at .679. He accrued that over just 477 plate appearances, but still. He should definitely get signed pretty soon.
- The player with the highest BPA among those who qualified for the batting title (502 PA) was David Ortiz at .678 over 667 plate appearances. And a lot of analysts said he had a down year last year because he "only" had 35 homers and 117 RBI. Hey, remember how he also had 52 doubles?!
- Would you believe that Carlos Pena (.670) had a higher BPA than Alex Rodriguez (.665)? A-Rod had more total bases because he had 96 more plate appearances, but man! At-bat for At-bat, Pena was as productive a player as there was in all of baseball last year.
- Jimmy Rollins, the NL MVP comes in at 46th with a .551 BPA. He was beaten out by Chase Utley (.571), Pat Burrell (.587), and Ryan Howard (.642), three players on his own team (!).
- Jason Kendall had the lowest BPA of those who qualified for the batting title, .340 over 514 plate appearances (Nick Punto was right above him at .341).
Another thing my brother and I discussed regarding Slugging Percentage was triples (and inside-the-park home runs). He asserted that triples shouldn't count for SLG, because generally it's not the "sluggers" who are hitting them. Guys like Curtis Granderson, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Carl Crawford can really run, and it's for that reason that they compile a bunch of triples. Otherwise, the only times that players get triples or inside-the-park homers are when fielders screw up but don't get errors, or the ball takes a weird bounce. Here's an idea I had that might reconcile this problem: John Dewan has a plus/minus system for evaluating fielding. For every play that fielder makes/does not make, he assigns a number. If he makes a play that the average fielder would make then he gets zero points. If he botches a play that the average fielder makes then he loses a point. If he makes a play that the average fielder would not make then he gets a point. Simple. The best fielders at each position generally finish the season at around +20; think Adam Everett, Pedro Feliz, Grady Sizemore, Albert Pujols. The worst generally finish around -15; think Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Adam Dunn, Miguel Cabrera. So I think we can apply this system to extra-base hits. If a player hits a ball that would normall go for a double, then he loses a point if he only gets a single, gets zero points if he gets to second base, and gains a point if he makes it a triple. So if we could keep track of this plus/minus number for each player, we could see how many extra-bases a player takes over the average player.
I was reading an article on the subway this morning, and the writer submitted that it would be advantageous if the Cincinnati Reds could combine the offense of Javier Valentin and the defense of their backup catchers. That got me thinking; may the Designated Hitter in the American League only replace the pitcher in the batting order? Wouldn't it be terrific if a team had a tremendous hitting pitcher (think Micah Owings, Mike Hampton, Carlos Zambrano, Dontrelle Willis), and a fielder who has no bat but plays maniacally good defense? That way you could have the pitcher bat for himself and have the DH replace one of the fielders. Az I went ahead and looked up the DH rules on mlb.com, and here are a few interesting things I found:
- Any league may elect to use the DH rule. So the NL could adopt the DH without having to change league rules.
- It's mandatory for a team to designate a hitter for the pitcher. If the team does not do so, they cannot use a DH for the remainder of the game.
- The DH spot in the lineup cannot move during the game. If the starting DH is batting 4th, then no matter how many times the DH has a pinch-hitter (or pinch-runner), his spot in the order stays at 4th.
- If a player enters the game as a pinch-hitter and then takes the mound, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game. If the pitcher bats at any time, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game. Furthermore, if the pitcher bats he can ONLY replace the DH in the order.
- If the DH goes out to play the field, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game.
So it appears that my idea of DHing a fielder is not allowed. I should tell that to Mr. Dulny so he can retroactively give me the at-bats he owes me from 11th grade. Hameivin yavin.
Yesterday, Alex Rodriguez hit the 521st home run of his career. He is now tied for 15th on the all time list with Willie McCovey and Ted Williams. The next two players he's set to pass are Jimmie Foxx (534 HR) and Mickey Mantle (536 HR). Meanwhile, Greg Maddux of the San Diego Padres has 349 victories on the mound. Among the people he should pass over the next year or two are Roger Clemens (354 Wins), and Hall of Famers Kid Nichols and Pud Galvin (364 Wins), Warren Spahn (363 Wins), and Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson (373 Wins). The A-Rod stuff seems closer to home because we've watched a lot of the players near him play. Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas (and technically Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds) are still active, and we all got to watch Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. Even Mike Schmidt and Reggie Jackson are still recent enough that many of us watched them play or at least saw a lot of their highlights. But still, when we're talking about a guy who's passing some of the all time greats like Jimmie Foxx and Mickey Mantle, you know we're dealing with something special. I mean those guys don't even seem real to me; Williams, Mantle, and Foxx are just legends, stories grandparents tell the kids before bedtime about how things were in the old days. And in this day and age, with pitchers getting far fewer opportunities to win games, it's especially jarring to see the names that Maddux is going to pass. Pud Galvin and Kid Nichols are not real people; Warren Spahn is not a real person; Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson are about as far from real as you can get. Some of these guys were alive around the time of the Civil War. They pitched over 100 years ago. We might as well be talking about people like Robin Hood and King Arthur. The fact that a pitcher today has a chance to pass Christy Mathewson on the all time victory list boggles my mind to no end. I implore you, all you non-baseball fans out there, try to find time to watch Greg Maddux pitch. Even at his advanced age, he's one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball. Watch the way his four-seam fastball tails away from lefties. I know that some day I'm going to tell my children that I watched Greg Maddux pitch live, and if I have my way they will be suitably impressed.
Okay, now it's time to get started on my new statistical fetish. I discussed baseball with my brother over the weekend, and we talked a lot about Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage, so I was in the mood go back to my bases per plate appearance research, even though I don't have platoon split data. Anyway, here's how I figure Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA): I take a players total bases (Singles + 2x Doubles + 3x Triples + 4x Home Runs), and add walks. Then I divide all that by Plate Appearances (At-bats + Walks + Hit by Pitch + Sacrifice bunts + Sacrifice Flies). The reason I use Plate Appearances instead of At-bats is that I'm trying to determine how much a player is worth each time he comes to the plate. It's for the same reason that I add Walks to Total Bases. Finally, the reason I included Sacrifice Bunts into Plate Appearances is that most sluggers don't ever bunt, so it wouldn't hurt their stats, and most players who would be high on the BPA list who would have a number of sacrifices are often "credited" with sacrifices even when they're bunting for hits, az this penalizes them. I calculated the BPA for all players with 100 or more plate appearances in 2007, and here are some notable findings:
- Barry Bonds had the highest BPA overall at .679. He accrued that over just 477 plate appearances, but still. He should definitely get signed pretty soon.
- The player with the highest BPA among those who qualified for the batting title (502 PA) was David Ortiz at .678 over 667 plate appearances. And a lot of analysts said he had a down year last year because he "only" had 35 homers and 117 RBI. Hey, remember how he also had 52 doubles?!
- Would you believe that Carlos Pena (.670) had a higher BPA than Alex Rodriguez (.665)? A-Rod had more total bases because he had 96 more plate appearances, but man! At-bat for At-bat, Pena was as productive a player as there was in all of baseball last year.
- Jimmy Rollins, the NL MVP comes in at 46th with a .551 BPA. He was beaten out by Chase Utley (.571), Pat Burrell (.587), and Ryan Howard (.642), three players on his own team (!).
- Jason Kendall had the lowest BPA of those who qualified for the batting title, .340 over 514 plate appearances (Nick Punto was right above him at .341).
Another thing my brother and I discussed regarding Slugging Percentage was triples (and inside-the-park home runs). He asserted that triples shouldn't count for SLG, because generally it's not the "sluggers" who are hitting them. Guys like Curtis Granderson, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Carl Crawford can really run, and it's for that reason that they compile a bunch of triples. Otherwise, the only times that players get triples or inside-the-park homers are when fielders screw up but don't get errors, or the ball takes a weird bounce. Here's an idea I had that might reconcile this problem: John Dewan has a plus/minus system for evaluating fielding. For every play that fielder makes/does not make, he assigns a number. If he makes a play that the average fielder would make then he gets zero points. If he botches a play that the average fielder makes then he loses a point. If he makes a play that the average fielder would not make then he gets a point. Simple. The best fielders at each position generally finish the season at around +20; think Adam Everett, Pedro Feliz, Grady Sizemore, Albert Pujols. The worst generally finish around -15; think Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Adam Dunn, Miguel Cabrera. So I think we can apply this system to extra-base hits. If a player hits a ball that would normall go for a double, then he loses a point if he only gets a single, gets zero points if he gets to second base, and gains a point if he makes it a triple. So if we could keep track of this plus/minus number for each player, we could see how many extra-bases a player takes over the average player.
I was reading an article on the subway this morning, and the writer submitted that it would be advantageous if the Cincinnati Reds could combine the offense of Javier Valentin and the defense of their backup catchers. That got me thinking; may the Designated Hitter in the American League only replace the pitcher in the batting order? Wouldn't it be terrific if a team had a tremendous hitting pitcher (think Micah Owings, Mike Hampton, Carlos Zambrano, Dontrelle Willis), and a fielder who has no bat but plays maniacally good defense? That way you could have the pitcher bat for himself and have the DH replace one of the fielders. Az I went ahead and looked up the DH rules on mlb.com, and here are a few interesting things I found:
- Any league may elect to use the DH rule. So the NL could adopt the DH without having to change league rules.
- It's mandatory for a team to designate a hitter for the pitcher. If the team does not do so, they cannot use a DH for the remainder of the game.
- The DH spot in the lineup cannot move during the game. If the starting DH is batting 4th, then no matter how many times the DH has a pinch-hitter (or pinch-runner), his spot in the order stays at 4th.
- If a player enters the game as a pinch-hitter and then takes the mound, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game. If the pitcher bats at any time, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game. Furthermore, if the pitcher bats he can ONLY replace the DH in the order.
- If the DH goes out to play the field, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game.
So it appears that my idea of DHing a fielder is not allowed. I should tell that to Mr. Dulny so he can retroactively give me the at-bats he owes me from 11th grade. Hameivin yavin.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Couple of Odds and Ends (Mostly Odd, Never End)
I went to my first ball game of the year last night and I had a few observations. Firstly, Citi Field is GORGEOUS! They did a ton of work on it during the off-season, and from the outside it looks ready to go. My friend and I briefly flirted with the hilarity that would ensue if Ryan Howard hit Citi Field with a home run and the entire thing came crashing down. Anyway, we've got 78 (plus playoffs) more chances to experience Shea Stadium in all its blueness, az take advantage while you can.
Another thing I noticed as the game plowed its way into extra innings is that the Mets did not exploit their platoon advantage during the game at all. There were so many times when the Mets best hitters had the advantage over the Phillie pitcher: Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, and Church against Adam Eaton (?), Beltran and Delgado in big spots against 90 year old Rudy Seanez (?), etc. That got me thinking today about which type of batter had the most extreme platoon splits. I always thought it was left-handed hitters, which is why I was so surprised when Seanez got the better of Delgado and Beltran. So I hit the stats. I found three league average hitters (100 OPS+) for their careers, and checked their platoon splits to get an idea of the average hitter splits. I list the percent difference between their platoon splits in Batting Average / On Base Percentage / Slugging Percentage, assuming that they hit better against pitchers of opposite handedness. Here's what I found:
Righties:
Rich Aurilia: 1.818 / 3.364 / 16.986
Hubie Brooks: 11.923 / 14.618 / 18.586
Eric Byrnes: 13.672 / 10.345 / 20.991
Lefties:
Doug Mientkiewicz: 1.873 / 0 / -2.415
B.J. Surhoff: -2.439 / -.300 / .730
Mark Kotsay: .356 / 3.030 / 2.200
Now, granted this isn't the most thorough research I've ever done, but until I can get the historical splits in spreadsheet format, I won't be able to do much. Anyway, it appears that I was incorrect. Righties tend to have a larger disparity in their success against pitchers of different handedness while lefties tend to be around the same or even have reverse splits. This is likely due to small sample size, because lefties (which are rare to begin with) have relatively few plate appearances against other lefties (still rare). In that case, the Mets righties should have handled the left-handed J.C. Romero last night and prevented the game from going to extras. Silly Mets.
I was watching highlights of the first game of the NHL playoffs, pairing the New York Rangers and the New Jersey Devils. In the third period, Sean Avery of the Rangers scored on Martin Brodeur, the Devils' goalkeeper, to give the Rangers a 3-1 lead. Few times have I ever seen an athlete so excited as Avery was at that moment; I mean he was going absolutely bonkers. I love it when the players go nuts. Here they are, making millions of dollars, and at that split-second in time they couldn't care less. These moments remind us of what sports are really about. The moment I remember most was from a Mets game on June 30th, 2000. I remember reading about the game in the morning because it was on a Friday night, and I didn't end up seeing highlights until after Shabbos. The Mets were losing to the Atlanta Braves (gosh I hated them in those days) 8-1 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Here's how the inning played out:
Don Wengert on the mound.
Derek Bell singles to center (man on 1st).
Edgardo Alfonzo flies out to center (1 out, man on 1st).
Mike Piazza reaches on an infield single to 3rd, error on the 3rd baseman, runners advance (1 out, men on 2nd and 3rd).
Robin Ventura grounds out to second, Bell scores, Piazza advances to 3rd (2 out, man on 3rd, 8-2).
Todd Zeile singles to left-center, Piazza scores (2 out, man on 1st, 8-3).
Jay Payton singles to right (2 out, men on 1st and 2nd, 8-3).
Kerry Ligtenberg on the mound.
Benny Agbayani walks (2 out, bases loaded, 8-3).
Mark Johnson walks, Zeile scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-4).
Melvin Mora walks, Payton scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-5).
Terry Mulholland on the mound. Joe McEwing pinch-runs for Mark Johnson
Derek Bell walks, Benny Agbayani scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-6).
Edgardo Alfonzo singles to left, McEwing scores, Mora scores (2 out, men on 1st and 2nd, 8-8).
Mike Piazza homers, Bell scores, Alfonzo scores, Piazza scores (2 out, 11-8).
Robin Ventura grounds out to 2nd (3 out, 11-8).
Armando Benitez sneaks his way through a nail-biting 9th inning, but for all intents and purposes the game was over with Piazza's home run. I remember watching the highlights and seeing the fans by the first base line going absolutely berserk. Piazza is running towards first base and when his batted ball clears the fence he pumps his right fist in boyish glee. Here's a guy who's making $90 million and he's going ballistic because he hit a ball over a fence during a game in June. These are the moments that we wait for as fans; when the players and we who support them are joined k'ish echad b'lev echad, as one person with one heart. Yeah, sure, stats and spreadsheets are a ton of fun, but there sure is some exciting stuff happening on the field of play.
Another thing I noticed as the game plowed its way into extra innings is that the Mets did not exploit their platoon advantage during the game at all. There were so many times when the Mets best hitters had the advantage over the Phillie pitcher: Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, and Church against Adam Eaton (?), Beltran and Delgado in big spots against 90 year old Rudy Seanez (?), etc. That got me thinking today about which type of batter had the most extreme platoon splits. I always thought it was left-handed hitters, which is why I was so surprised when Seanez got the better of Delgado and Beltran. So I hit the stats. I found three league average hitters (100 OPS+) for their careers, and checked their platoon splits to get an idea of the average hitter splits. I list the percent difference between their platoon splits in Batting Average / On Base Percentage / Slugging Percentage, assuming that they hit better against pitchers of opposite handedness. Here's what I found:
Righties:
Rich Aurilia: 1.818 / 3.364 / 16.986
Hubie Brooks: 11.923 / 14.618 / 18.586
Eric Byrnes: 13.672 / 10.345 / 20.991
Lefties:
Doug Mientkiewicz: 1.873 / 0 / -2.415
B.J. Surhoff: -2.439 / -.300 / .730
Mark Kotsay: .356 / 3.030 / 2.200
Now, granted this isn't the most thorough research I've ever done, but until I can get the historical splits in spreadsheet format, I won't be able to do much. Anyway, it appears that I was incorrect. Righties tend to have a larger disparity in their success against pitchers of different handedness while lefties tend to be around the same or even have reverse splits. This is likely due to small sample size, because lefties (which are rare to begin with) have relatively few plate appearances against other lefties (still rare). In that case, the Mets righties should have handled the left-handed J.C. Romero last night and prevented the game from going to extras. Silly Mets.
I was watching highlights of the first game of the NHL playoffs, pairing the New York Rangers and the New Jersey Devils. In the third period, Sean Avery of the Rangers scored on Martin Brodeur, the Devils' goalkeeper, to give the Rangers a 3-1 lead. Few times have I ever seen an athlete so excited as Avery was at that moment; I mean he was going absolutely bonkers. I love it when the players go nuts. Here they are, making millions of dollars, and at that split-second in time they couldn't care less. These moments remind us of what sports are really about. The moment I remember most was from a Mets game on June 30th, 2000. I remember reading about the game in the morning because it was on a Friday night, and I didn't end up seeing highlights until after Shabbos. The Mets were losing to the Atlanta Braves (gosh I hated them in those days) 8-1 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Here's how the inning played out:
Don Wengert on the mound.
Derek Bell singles to center (man on 1st).
Edgardo Alfonzo flies out to center (1 out, man on 1st).
Mike Piazza reaches on an infield single to 3rd, error on the 3rd baseman, runners advance (1 out, men on 2nd and 3rd).
Robin Ventura grounds out to second, Bell scores, Piazza advances to 3rd (2 out, man on 3rd, 8-2).
Todd Zeile singles to left-center, Piazza scores (2 out, man on 1st, 8-3).
Jay Payton singles to right (2 out, men on 1st and 2nd, 8-3).
Kerry Ligtenberg on the mound.
Benny Agbayani walks (2 out, bases loaded, 8-3).
Mark Johnson walks, Zeile scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-4).
Melvin Mora walks, Payton scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-5).
Terry Mulholland on the mound. Joe McEwing pinch-runs for Mark Johnson
Derek Bell walks, Benny Agbayani scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-6).
Edgardo Alfonzo singles to left, McEwing scores, Mora scores (2 out, men on 1st and 2nd, 8-8).
Mike Piazza homers, Bell scores, Alfonzo scores, Piazza scores (2 out, 11-8).
Robin Ventura grounds out to 2nd (3 out, 11-8).
Armando Benitez sneaks his way through a nail-biting 9th inning, but for all intents and purposes the game was over with Piazza's home run. I remember watching the highlights and seeing the fans by the first base line going absolutely berserk. Piazza is running towards first base and when his batted ball clears the fence he pumps his right fist in boyish glee. Here's a guy who's making $90 million and he's going ballistic because he hit a ball over a fence during a game in June. These are the moments that we wait for as fans; when the players and we who support them are joined k'ish echad b'lev echad, as one person with one heart. Yeah, sure, stats and spreadsheets are a ton of fun, but there sure is some exciting stuff happening on the field of play.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
The Way It Should Be Done
I was surprised not once, but twice yesterday. Now, it's a problem to begin with that I was surprised, because the things that surprised me should not be surprising; they should be expected.
I called Time Warner on Friday (this is the point where everyone thinks "I know where this is going." I mean, is there any other company that is so universally hated than Time Warner? Two friends, who happen to work for Time, were in my new apartment last night, and they totally agreed. One of them said something like "whenever they come to do service I always ask them if I can get free cable, and the guy always responds by asking if he can get free magazines." Anyway, I don't know ANYONE who has good things to say about their service. Which, incidentally is why I was so surprised) to schedule a service appointment so they could install cable in my new apartment. Az they came on Tuesday, but since my enormous television was still in my old apartment I had to ask a friend to bring his small TV over just to make sure the cable worked. So when we finally moved the TV in yesterday, we should have been all set. But lo and behold, the picture was black and white. I called them up, and the service guy was polite, courteous, and extremely helpful (his English wasn't too bad either). He solved the problem in no time and we were good to go. Again, this is the kind of thing one should expect from a company like Time Warner. At least for one day I was pleased with them.
The other surprise requires a bit of backstory. Some time over the summer I was on the john, and I was reading a newspaper article about a baseball equipment company that uses interesting technology in their products. Most baseball gloves look the same, but Akadema explores different ways of shaping them. For full details, check out their website: http://www.akademapro.com/. Anyway, since the average life of a Schmutter softball glove is around 13 years, the time came to get a new one. Just as an aside, there are few things more precious to a guy than his glove; no guy wants to get a new one. A guy knows every nook and cranny of his glove, almost as if it's been attached to his hand for his whole life. A guy would rather repair his glove every inning than have to buy a new one, but there comes a point when you just have to bite the bullet.
Az I went to the website and wrote down which gloves I was interested in seeing, and on the website they have links to sporting goods stores that carry their products. I'm about to make fun of every girl I know, so just beware: a baseball glove is like a pair of shoes; you don't want to buy one until you've tried it on and made sure it's comfortable. So I went to Sports Authority to try on some of the Akadema gloves, but they didn't have any. I asked one of the salesmen if they had, and they said that some things they only have for sale on the website. Bummer. Az yesterday, I went back to the Akadema website, got their phone number, and called them up. I told them I wanted to try on some gloves but couldn't find any in the stores, so the gentlemen told me I could come to their showroom at their headquarters in Hawthorne, NJ (just as a frame of reference, it's basically the next town over from Fair Lawn). So after work I drove out to Hawthorne, and I must have passed by their place three times before I found it. I was expecting some kind of fancy sporting goods store, but it looked just like an office. There were signs that said "For Academy, go around back," so I assumed the front of the office was owned by another company who didn't know how to spell "Akadema," so I went around back. I heard some people hitting softballs in a batting cage, az I knew I was in the right place. I walked through the batting cage area, presumably to where the showroom was, and a gentleman stopped me and asked me where I was going. I told him, and he said "there is no showroom. Wait, you're here for Akadema right?" I nodded. "Go back around to the front." I did. I walked into the front door, and it looked almost like a doctor's waiting room. There were a couple of chairs and a small window, behind which a man was sitting. Now I was feeling pretty foolish for driving all the way out there to some office in some no-name town in Jersey. I was all prepared to be upset at them for feeding my wrong information over the phone, etc. Az I sheepishly told the man why I was there, and he said that they're still building the showroom, but he'd be happy to have one of the workers show me some of their products. Excellent. I went inside and a young man named Kevin brought me a catalogue and asked me to show him which gloves I wanted to see. I told him I'm an infielder, I like a closed back, and I wanted a slightly longer glove. He gave me one and said that was the one I wanted. Az I wrote down the model and told him that I would buy it on the website (I noticed the gloves were $5 cheaper on the Sports Authority website), but he said he would give me a discount. Outstanding. Then I asked him if I could have a discount on batting gloves too, and he said "of course." Basically, I walked out of there with a catalogue ($3 value), a free cap (probably no more than a $3 value; the thing looks like a trucker hat made for a sever year old), a new softball glove ($105 value), and a pair of sheepskin batting gloves ($35 value), for a sum total of $100. It was a thoroughly pleasant shopping experience. I told Kevin he was a terrific salesman and he just acquired a customer for life. I was so pleased that I didn't even care about sitting in GWB traffic on the way home.
Just a couple of other noteworthy occurences at the Akadema headquarters. Kevin showed me the custom mitt they made for Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox Left Fielder, az that was pretty cool. Also, while I was there, they received a call from Jose Offerman, a former player, who wanted to know when his glove would be ready.
Anyway, when I got back home, I ended off the day by lounging on my couch (which was successfully moved into our new place. Thanks guys) in front of the TV (which was also successfully moved into our new place. Thanks a ton guys) and watching the Mets slaughter the Marlins 13-0. It was really a lovely day.
I called Time Warner on Friday (this is the point where everyone thinks "I know where this is going." I mean, is there any other company that is so universally hated than Time Warner? Two friends, who happen to work for Time, were in my new apartment last night, and they totally agreed. One of them said something like "whenever they come to do service I always ask them if I can get free cable, and the guy always responds by asking if he can get free magazines." Anyway, I don't know ANYONE who has good things to say about their service. Which, incidentally is why I was so surprised) to schedule a service appointment so they could install cable in my new apartment. Az they came on Tuesday, but since my enormous television was still in my old apartment I had to ask a friend to bring his small TV over just to make sure the cable worked. So when we finally moved the TV in yesterday, we should have been all set. But lo and behold, the picture was black and white. I called them up, and the service guy was polite, courteous, and extremely helpful (his English wasn't too bad either). He solved the problem in no time and we were good to go. Again, this is the kind of thing one should expect from a company like Time Warner. At least for one day I was pleased with them.
The other surprise requires a bit of backstory. Some time over the summer I was on the john, and I was reading a newspaper article about a baseball equipment company that uses interesting technology in their products. Most baseball gloves look the same, but Akadema explores different ways of shaping them. For full details, check out their website: http://www.akademapro.com/. Anyway, since the average life of a Schmutter softball glove is around 13 years, the time came to get a new one. Just as an aside, there are few things more precious to a guy than his glove; no guy wants to get a new one. A guy knows every nook and cranny of his glove, almost as if it's been attached to his hand for his whole life. A guy would rather repair his glove every inning than have to buy a new one, but there comes a point when you just have to bite the bullet.
Az I went to the website and wrote down which gloves I was interested in seeing, and on the website they have links to sporting goods stores that carry their products. I'm about to make fun of every girl I know, so just beware: a baseball glove is like a pair of shoes; you don't want to buy one until you've tried it on and made sure it's comfortable. So I went to Sports Authority to try on some of the Akadema gloves, but they didn't have any. I asked one of the salesmen if they had, and they said that some things they only have for sale on the website. Bummer. Az yesterday, I went back to the Akadema website, got their phone number, and called them up. I told them I wanted to try on some gloves but couldn't find any in the stores, so the gentlemen told me I could come to their showroom at their headquarters in Hawthorne, NJ (just as a frame of reference, it's basically the next town over from Fair Lawn). So after work I drove out to Hawthorne, and I must have passed by their place three times before I found it. I was expecting some kind of fancy sporting goods store, but it looked just like an office. There were signs that said "For Academy, go around back," so I assumed the front of the office was owned by another company who didn't know how to spell "Akadema," so I went around back. I heard some people hitting softballs in a batting cage, az I knew I was in the right place. I walked through the batting cage area, presumably to where the showroom was, and a gentleman stopped me and asked me where I was going. I told him, and he said "there is no showroom. Wait, you're here for Akadema right?" I nodded. "Go back around to the front." I did. I walked into the front door, and it looked almost like a doctor's waiting room. There were a couple of chairs and a small window, behind which a man was sitting. Now I was feeling pretty foolish for driving all the way out there to some office in some no-name town in Jersey. I was all prepared to be upset at them for feeding my wrong information over the phone, etc. Az I sheepishly told the man why I was there, and he said that they're still building the showroom, but he'd be happy to have one of the workers show me some of their products. Excellent. I went inside and a young man named Kevin brought me a catalogue and asked me to show him which gloves I wanted to see. I told him I'm an infielder, I like a closed back, and I wanted a slightly longer glove. He gave me one and said that was the one I wanted. Az I wrote down the model and told him that I would buy it on the website (I noticed the gloves were $5 cheaper on the Sports Authority website), but he said he would give me a discount. Outstanding. Then I asked him if I could have a discount on batting gloves too, and he said "of course." Basically, I walked out of there with a catalogue ($3 value), a free cap (probably no more than a $3 value; the thing looks like a trucker hat made for a sever year old), a new softball glove ($105 value), and a pair of sheepskin batting gloves ($35 value), for a sum total of $100. It was a thoroughly pleasant shopping experience. I told Kevin he was a terrific salesman and he just acquired a customer for life. I was so pleased that I didn't even care about sitting in GWB traffic on the way home.
Just a couple of other noteworthy occurences at the Akadema headquarters. Kevin showed me the custom mitt they made for Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox Left Fielder, az that was pretty cool. Also, while I was there, they received a call from Jose Offerman, a former player, who wanted to know when his glove would be ready.
Anyway, when I got back home, I ended off the day by lounging on my couch (which was successfully moved into our new place. Thanks guys) in front of the TV (which was also successfully moved into our new place. Thanks a ton guys) and watching the Mets slaughter the Marlins 13-0. It was really a lovely day.
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