More Odds and Ends (Even Odder, Still No End)

So someone suggested that I put labels on my posts so that my readers would be able to read (read: ignore) posts at their leisure. For example, this post would be labeled "baseball," az most of you would choose to ignore it. Go ahead; see if I care.

Yesterday, Alex Rodriguez hit the 521st home run of his career. He is now tied for 15th on the all time list with Willie McCovey and Ted Williams. The next two players he's set to pass are Jimmie Foxx (534 HR) and Mickey Mantle (536 HR). Meanwhile, Greg Maddux of the San Diego Padres has 349 victories on the mound. Among the people he should pass over the next year or two are Roger Clemens (354 Wins), and Hall of Famers Kid Nichols and Pud Galvin (364 Wins), Warren Spahn (363 Wins), and Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson (373 Wins). The A-Rod stuff seems closer to home because we've watched a lot of the players near him play. Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas (and technically Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds) are still active, and we all got to watch Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. Even Mike Schmidt and Reggie Jackson are still recent enough that many of us watched them play or at least saw a lot of their highlights. But still, when we're talking about a guy who's passing some of the all time greats like Jimmie Foxx and Mickey Mantle, you know we're dealing with something special. I mean those guys don't even seem real to me; Williams, Mantle, and Foxx are just legends, stories grandparents tell the kids before bedtime about how things were in the old days. And in this day and age, with pitchers getting far fewer opportunities to win games, it's especially jarring to see the names that Maddux is going to pass. Pud Galvin and Kid Nichols are not real people; Warren Spahn is not a real person; Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson are about as far from real as you can get. Some of these guys were alive around the time of the Civil War. They pitched over 100 years ago. We might as well be talking about people like Robin Hood and King Arthur. The fact that a pitcher today has a chance to pass Christy Mathewson on the all time victory list boggles my mind to no end. I implore you, all you non-baseball fans out there, try to find time to watch Greg Maddux pitch. Even at his advanced age, he's one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball. Watch the way his four-seam fastball tails away from lefties. I know that some day I'm going to tell my children that I watched Greg Maddux pitch live, and if I have my way they will be suitably impressed.

Okay, now it's time to get started on my new statistical fetish. I discussed baseball with my brother over the weekend, and we talked a lot about Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage, so I was in the mood go back to my bases per plate appearance research, even though I don't have platoon split data. Anyway, here's how I figure Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA): I take a players total bases (Singles + 2x Doubles + 3x Triples + 4x Home Runs), and add walks. Then I divide all that by Plate Appearances (At-bats + Walks + Hit by Pitch + Sacrifice bunts + Sacrifice Flies). The reason I use Plate Appearances instead of At-bats is that I'm trying to determine how much a player is worth each time he comes to the plate. It's for the same reason that I add Walks to Total Bases. Finally, the reason I included Sacrifice Bunts into Plate Appearances is that most sluggers don't ever bunt, so it wouldn't hurt their stats, and most players who would be high on the BPA list who would have a number of sacrifices are often "credited" with sacrifices even when they're bunting for hits, az this penalizes them. I calculated the BPA for all players with 100 or more plate appearances in 2007, and here are some notable findings:

- Barry Bonds had the highest BPA overall at .679. He accrued that over just 477 plate appearances, but still. He should definitely get signed pretty soon.
- The player with the highest BPA among those who qualified for the batting title (502 PA) was David Ortiz at .678 over 667 plate appearances. And a lot of analysts said he had a down year last year because he "only" had 35 homers and 117 RBI. Hey, remember how he also had 52 doubles?!
- Would you believe that Carlos Pena (.670) had a higher BPA than Alex Rodriguez (.665)? A-Rod had more total bases because he had 96 more plate appearances, but man! At-bat for At-bat, Pena was as productive a player as there was in all of baseball last year.
- Jimmy Rollins, the NL MVP comes in at 46th with a .551 BPA. He was beaten out by Chase Utley (.571), Pat Burrell (.587), and Ryan Howard (.642), three players on his own team (!).
- Jason Kendall had the lowest BPA of those who qualified for the batting title, .340 over 514 plate appearances (Nick Punto was right above him at .341).

Another thing my brother and I discussed regarding Slugging Percentage was triples (and inside-the-park home runs). He asserted that triples shouldn't count for SLG, because generally it's not the "sluggers" who are hitting them. Guys like Curtis Granderson, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Carl Crawford can really run, and it's for that reason that they compile a bunch of triples. Otherwise, the only times that players get triples or inside-the-park homers are when fielders screw up but don't get errors, or the ball takes a weird bounce. Here's an idea I had that might reconcile this problem: John Dewan has a plus/minus system for evaluating fielding. For every play that fielder makes/does not make, he assigns a number. If he makes a play that the average fielder would make then he gets zero points. If he botches a play that the average fielder makes then he loses a point. If he makes a play that the average fielder would not make then he gets a point. Simple. The best fielders at each position generally finish the season at around +20; think Adam Everett, Pedro Feliz, Grady Sizemore, Albert Pujols. The worst generally finish around -15; think Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Adam Dunn, Miguel Cabrera. So I think we can apply this system to extra-base hits. If a player hits a ball that would normall go for a double, then he loses a point if he only gets a single, gets zero points if he gets to second base, and gains a point if he makes it a triple. So if we could keep track of this plus/minus number for each player, we could see how many extra-bases a player takes over the average player.

I was reading an article on the subway this morning, and the writer submitted that it would be advantageous if the Cincinnati Reds could combine the offense of Javier Valentin and the defense of their backup catchers. That got me thinking; may the Designated Hitter in the American League only replace the pitcher in the batting order? Wouldn't it be terrific if a team had a tremendous hitting pitcher (think Micah Owings, Mike Hampton, Carlos Zambrano, Dontrelle Willis), and a fielder who has no bat but plays maniacally good defense? That way you could have the pitcher bat for himself and have the DH replace one of the fielders. Az I went ahead and looked up the DH rules on mlb.com, and here are a few interesting things I found:

- Any league may elect to use the DH rule. So the NL could adopt the DH without having to change league rules.
- It's mandatory for a team to designate a hitter for the pitcher. If the team does not do so, they cannot use a DH for the remainder of the game.
- The DH spot in the lineup cannot move during the game. If the starting DH is batting 4th, then no matter how many times the DH has a pinch-hitter (or pinch-runner), his spot in the order stays at 4th.
- If a player enters the game as a pinch-hitter and then takes the mound, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game. If the pitcher bats at any time, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game. Furthermore, if the pitcher bats he can ONLY replace the DH in the order.
- If the DH goes out to play the field, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game.

So it appears that my idea of DHing a fielder is not allowed. I should tell that to Mr. Dulny so he can retroactively give me the at-bats he owes me from 11th grade. Hameivin yavin.