What's Wrong with Wright?

Wow, that title had all four words starting with "W." That's some serious alliteration right there.

Anyway, we're now 68 games into the 2008 baseball season and the Mets are pretty much stuck in neutral. Two posts ago I looked at each player to try to determine what was going on, and I mentioned that David Wright was getting a bit unlucky:

"Am I concerned? Nope. David's really been hitting the ball hard all year. As I expected, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is around 40 points below what it should be. His Line-Drive percentage is a robust 23.5%, which should translate to a .355 BABIP, but his is sitting at .310 currently. It's only a matter of time until those line drives start falling in for hits and his stats rise accordingly."

But now I want to look at David Wright more in depth. Let's examine his secondary stats and compare them to his numbers from last season:

Let's start with his slash stats: Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage/OPS
2007: .325/.416/.546/.963
2008: .276/.373/.485/.858
Those stats are way down this year.

And now his counting stats:
2007: 30 HR, 107 RBI, 113 Runs, 34 SB, 42 Doubles, 94 Walks, 115 Ks
2008 (pace): 29 HR, 119 RBI, 100 Runs, 19 SB, 43 Doubles, 100 Walks, 114 Ks.
Now those look almost identical! Looks like he's just hitting fewer singles.

Let's go deeper: Walk Percentage/Strikeout Percentage/Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio
2007: 13.5% / 19.0% / 0.82
2008: 13.5% / 17.9% / 0.88
So this is starting to look fishy. He's walking just as often and he's striking out less. Looks like the progression of a player who is getting better at judging the strike zone. So why are his stats down?

Let's keep going: Ground Ball Percentage/Fly Ball Percentage/Ground Ball-to-Fly Ball Ratio/Home Runs per Fly Ball Percentage/Line Drive Percentage/Batting Average on Balls in Play
2007: 39.3% / 37.5% / 1.05 / 16.1% / 23.2% / .362
2008: 38.4% / 40.6% / 0.95 / 13.2% / 21.0% / .298
Okay, so ground balls are down and fly balls are up; that's usually a good sign. But line drive percentage is down, and home run percentage is WAY down. And as I said last time, his actual batting average on balls in play is .32 points below what it should be, which accounts for his low overall batting average.

One step further: Swing percentage at pitches outside the strike zone/swing percentage at pitches in the strike zone/overall percentage of pitches swung at/contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone/contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone/overall contact percentage
2007: 21.66% / 64.83% / 42.54% / 66.24% / 88.76% / 82.84%
2008: 20.79% / 68.69% / 44.40% / 62.20% / 90.44% / 83.74%
So he's swinging at more balls overall, which is fine because he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and more pitches in. And he's making more overall contact, which is also fine because he's making contact more often on pitches in the strike zone.

Conclusion: I have no freakin' clue why his numbers aren't up to par. All signs are pointing to Wright's continued development in terms of reading the strike zone. He's walking more than last year; he's striking out less often, he's hitting more fly balls, and he's swinging at better pitches. The only thing that looks wrong is his line drive percentage. Considering that he's swinging at better pitches I expect that number to change. Besides, he usually picks it up in the second half. I'm prepared to submit that David Wright is just getting unlucky. His luck is bound to turn around sooner or later.

Special thanks to fangraphs.com for advanced statistics.

Note: According to the fantastic website hittrackeronline.com, of David Wright's 31 home runs last year, twelve of them were "just enough," tied for third most in the NL. "Just enough" means that it cleared the fence by less than ten feet. Also, he led the NL in "lucky" home runs with ten, two more than the next most. A "lucky" home run would not have been a home run without help from the weather or other conditions (Colorado, for example). Az 22 of his 31 home runs could easily have been outs were it not for a bit of outside help. Some might say that it's a skill to use the conditions to your advantage. Others will posit that there were probably a bunch of fly balls that fell just short of the wall and that the "lucky" and "just enough" home runs have evened out with the ones that didn't make it over the fence. Either way, Wright might not be quite the impressive slugger that he appears. Maybe those lucky ones have just not been quite enough this year. Hopefully everything will even out as the year goes on and some of those outs will turn into home runs.

Projection Update

We're now one-third of the way through the baseball season (well, a tad more, but let's pretend). By now we should have enough data to compare to the pre-season projections. Az let's jump right in. All stats are through the first 54 games of the season extrapolated out to 162:

Johan Santana: 220 IP, 18-9, 216 Hits, 3.41 ERA, 36 HR, 195 Ks, 51 BBs, 1.203 WHIP, 3.824 K/BB, 7.905 K/9, 2.068 BB/9, 1.459 HR/9.
The projections were all pretty far off. The best was the ZiPS projection: 234 IP, 18-8, 192 Hits, 3.04 ERA, 28 HR, 244 Ks, 46 BBs, 1.017 WHIP, 5.304 K/BB, 9.385 K/9, 1.769 BB/9, 1.077 HR/9.
His actual stats are much closer to his 10th percentile PECOTA projection: 187.7 IP, 13-8, 173 Hits, 3.84 ERA, 25 HR, 188 Ks, 56 BBs, 1.22 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Not very. His 1st/2nd half splits are absurd. He really cranks it up after the All-Star break.

Pedro Martinez: No sample size to work with since he just got back from his injury. We'll check back with him at the 81 game mark.

John Maine: 192 IP, 15-12, 162 Hits, 3.66 ERA, 18 HR, 162 Ks, 90 BBs, 1.313 WHIP, 1.80 K/BB, 7.594 K/9, 4.219 BB/9, 0.844 HR/9.
The projections were all around the same, around a 4.00 ERA, around 7.5 K/9. The ERAs were off, and the HRs were off, but all in all, not bad work.
His actual stats are closer to his 75th percentile PECOTA projections, although his strikeouts and walks are off: 161.2 IP, 11-6, 144 Hits, 3.49 ERA, 17 HR, 142 Ks, 61 BBs, 1.27 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9.
Am I concerned? A little bit. He has been better in the first half than in the second over the course of his career.

Oliver Perez: 179 IP, 12-9, 150 Hits, 4.83 ERA, 27 HR, 150 Ks, 123 BBs, 1.525 WHIP, 1.22 K/BB, 7.542 K/9, 6.184 BB/9, 1.358 HR/9.
Marcel and Bill James were excellent. Both have him at around a .500 record, a 4.50+ ERA, and a 1.43+ WHIP. Well done.
His actual stats are virtually identical to his 40th percentile PECOTA projection with a few more walks: 133.2 IP, 8-8, 128 Hits, 4.83 ERA, 18 HR, 127 Ks, 66 BB, 1.45 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Yes. These stats don't include his start on Monday against the Giants (who can't hit a lick), in which he gave up 6 ER in 0.1 innings.

Mike Pelfrey: 168 IP, 6-18, 210 Hits, 4.98 ERA, 12 HR, 87 Ks, 75 BBs, 1.696 WHIP, 1.16 K/BB, 4.661 K/9, 4.018 BB/9, 0.643 HR/9.
Marcel and PECOTA were spot on. Both had him below .500, an ERA over 4.50, and a WHIP around 1.50. They also projected few strikeouts and home runs, although not quite as few as he's actually had.
His actual stats are close to his 25th percentile PECOTA projection: 123 IP, 7-8, 137 Hits, 5.25 ERA, 13 HR, 77 Ks, 61 BBs, 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Yeah! But it's not his fault. The Mets need to play better defense. Castillo's knees need to be healthy, Reyes needs to routinely make routine plays, and Wright just needs to get a bit sharper. Then all of those Pelfrey grounders will get gobbled up instead of going for hits.

The sample size is still too small for the relievers and bench players. Maybe I'll do them at the 81 game mark. Onto the hitters:

Brian Schneider: 408 PA, 27 Runs, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 0 SB, 39 BBs, 60 Ks, .258 BA, .328 OBP, .317 SLG, .645 OPS.
All the projections are close. They all have him at around .250 with a .640 to .690 OPS with 5-7 HR and 40-60 RBI.
His actual stats are pretty close to his 75th percentile PECOTA projection, minus a few extra base hits: 34 Runs, 5 HR, 33 RBI, .260/.339/.376/.715.
Am I concerned? A little bit. I think with a healthy Ramon Castro backing him up and even pressuring him to perform, Schneider will pick up the pace somewhat.

Carlos Delgado: 654 PA, 75 Runs, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB, 66 BBs, 132 Ks, .228 BA, .307 OBP, .389 SLG, .696 OPS.
Everybody was off on this one. Nobody realized that last season's decline was real. It's really sad to see.
His actual power numbers are in line with his 75th percentile PECOTA projection: 22 HR, 77 RBI, 64 Runs, 48 BBs. But his rate stats are more in line with his 10th percentile: .229/.302/.397/.699.
Am I concerned? Who wouldn't be? He has sparks of brilliance, and he can get hot, but he's just not hitting with any consistency. This might be the end.

Luis Castillo: 567 PA, 81 Runs, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 27 SB, 81 BBs, 42 Ks, .274 BA, .384 OBP, .376 SLG, .760 OPS.
Everybody was off, but not as badly as for Delgado. Nobody expected Castillo to hit more than a homer or two. Everyone overshot his batting average, projecting around .290, but also no one expected him to walk so much.
His actual stats are very close to his 90th percentile PECOTA projection, believe it or not: 100 Runs, 0 HR, 40 RBI, 19 SB, 63 BBs, 43 Ks, .317/.391/.377/.768.
Am I concerned? I don't see much that is concerning. His batting average is down because he is really not swinging early in the count at hittable pitches. He is being extremely patient at the plate and trying extra hard to draw that walk. I would say that's not a bad strategy with Wright, Beltran, and Church hitting behind him.

Jose Reyes: 747 PA, 102 Runs, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 51 SB, 69 BBs, 99 Ks, .282 BA, .346 OBP, .477 SLG, .823 OPS.
Basically everyone had pretty similar projections and were also off, a la Luis Castillo. They pretty much nailed his batting average (all around .290), but they underestimated his power. They all had his SLG around .440.
His actual stats are right in line with his 75th percentile PECOTA projection minus a few hits: 113 Runs, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 61 SB, 57 BBs, 69 Ks, .308/.369/.483/.852.
Am I concerned? No. His early season struggles seem to have corrected themselves and he has begun driving the ball with authority to all parts of the yard. He's no longer getting fooled and popping the ball up to the opposite field. He needs to just keep it going and not wear down.

David Wright: 747 PA, 108 Runs, 33 HR, 120 RBI, 21 SB, 108 BBs, 117 Ks, .284 BA, .390 OBP, .531 SLG, .921 OPS.
Marcel and PECOTA really hit the bulls-eye here. They all have his batting average climbing over .300, and I fully expect that to occur. His second half last year was far better than his first.
His actual stats are very close to his 40th percentile PECOTA projection: 103 Runs, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 20 SB, 78 BBs, 104 Ks, .299/.388/.526/.914.
Am I concerned? Nope. David's really been hitting the ball hard all year. As I expected, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is around 40 points below what it should be. His Line-Drive percentage is a robust 23.5%, which should translate to a .355 BABIP, but his is sitting at .310 currently. It's only a matter of time until those line drives start falling in for hits and his stats rise accordingly.

Carlos Beltran: 705 PA, 114 Runs, 15 HR, 96 RBI, 21 SB, 105 BBs, 108 Ks, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .444 SLG, .814 OPS.
Blah blah blah, the projections are all the same again. Everyone's basically exactly right except on the home runs and walks. In fact, it seems like Beltran's missing home runs all turned into walks.
His actual stats are unlike any of the PECOTA projections. Man, he really is having a bizarre season. His power has just disappeared. He's turned into Luis Castillo on steroids. He's walking like crazy, but is on pace to have fewer home runs than his 10th percentile PECOTA. WTF is going on??
Am I concerned? I don't even know! Those extra walks are pretty freakin' valuable though, if you ask me.

Ryan Church: 561 PA, 102 Runs, 27 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB, 51 BBs, 120 Ks, .309 BA, .376 OBP, .527 SLG, .903 OPS.
Man, Churchie is just destroying the projections, isn't he? Nobody had him batting higher than .274, OBPing more than .353, or slugging higher than .472.
His actual stats are right around his 90th percentile PECOTA projection: 83 Runs, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, 57 BBs, 109 Ks, .295/.383/.540/.923.
Am I concerned? A little bit, because of the concussion he sustained a couple of weeks ago. In his first game back he hit a home run, so that's encouraging, but we'll have to see how he does over the next couple of weeks. Either way, I don't think I've ever seen anyone consistently hit the ball as hard as Church does. The man is a living line-drive.

Final thoughts: As a whole, I think things are largely going the way they should, considering injuries to a few important pieces (Alou, El Duque, Pedro, Castro). Some more hitting should come from Beltran and a healthy Alou, and perhaps even a rejuvenated Fernando Tatis. The defense should tighten up a little bit, and with Pedro back, the pitching should be in better shape. We'll check back at the half.

The List

On July 20, 2007, I wrote a post in which I described things that should not happen while walking on the street. These include stopping in the middle of the sidewalk all of a sudden, and re-entering pedestrian traffic from the side of the street. I'd like to add one more in there: walking backwards. It's ridiculous that I even need to say it, but seriously, if you're in Times Square and you're not putting on an act, don't walk backwards! I mean, are you kidding me?

Hey, ever notice that "Are you kidding me?" and "Are you serious?" mean exactly the same thing?

Az I read a post by Joe Posnanski yesterday, in which he struggles to answer the following question: who is the best everyday player in Mets history? This question is particularly relevant in the wake of Mike Piazza's retirement. He says that for now this is a very tough question, but it will become a moot point in a few years, at which time David Wright will own every single offensive team record. Meanwhile, I decided to come up with my own list of greatest everyday Mets players ever, counting down backwards from ten (stats current as of May 22, 2008. Stats are ranked among players with at least 1000 plate appearences):

10. Mookie Wilson: 4th in ABs, 4th in Runs, 4th in Hits, 4th in Singles, 7th in Doubles, 1st in Triples, 1st in Stolen Bases.

Granted the Mook wasn't a very valuable player, but he holds every Mets speed record to date (until broken by #9 in a year or two). And when you're involved in the most memorable play in Mets history, you need to be on this kind of list.

9. Jose Reyes: 2nd in Triples, 2nd in Stolen Bases.

Reyes is short of the all time Mets record in Triples (by 5) and Stolen Bases (by 33). He should reach both of those milestones this season, and will probably end up doubling both records by the time his career as a Met is over. As such, he will likely move up (or down) this list over the next few years. I'm looking forward to seeing him involved in many memorable plays in the near future.

8. Carlos Beltran: 4th in SLG, 5th in OPS.

He's only played in 479 games as a Met, but he has established himself as one of the most productive Mets on a game-to-game basis. He is also probably the very best defensive center fielder the Mets have ever had, and he is an outstanding base runner (63 SB and 17 CS).

7. Edgardo Alfonzo: 3rd in Runs, 3rd in Hits, 3rd in Doubles, 7th in HR, 5th in RBI, 6th in Walks, 7th in BA, 8th in OBP.

While Fonzie had a far-from-memorable career, his star shone extremely brightly during his years in New York. He brought a consistency on offense and defense, which helped the Mets win every day. He also remains the only Met to date to record a six-hit game. On August 30th, 1999, Alfonzo connected for three home runs and a double in a six-for-six day against the Houston Astros.

6. John Olerud: 2nd in BA, 1st in OBP, 5th in SLG, 1st in OPS.

The only reason Olerud's numbers don't propel him higher on this list is that he only played as a Met for three years. But in those three years he proved to be the best everyday hitter the Mets have ever had (at least according to OPS). He sported a juicy .425 OBP and brought gold-glove caliber play to first base. For more information on Olerud, see my post "A Walk Down the Memory Baseline," from January 8th, 2008.

5. Howard Johnson: 2nd in Runs, 8th in Hits, 2nd in Doubles, 3rd in HR, 3rd in RBI, 3rd in SB, 3rd in Walks.

Hojo's greatness can mostly be attributed to his longevity in a Mets uniform, however his production during the low-offense 1980s was well above league average. Among the five 30 HR / 30 SB seasons in Mets history, Hojo has three of them. In two of those seasons he won the Silver Slugger award for third basemen. His contributions to the Mets continue today as their hitting coach.

4. Keith Hernandez: 8th in Doubles, 7th in RBI, 5th in Walks, 4th in BA, 4th in OBP.

During his tenure in New York, Hernandez solidified his claim as perhaps the best defensive first baseman of all time. But he sure could swing the bat well too. He finished in the top five in MVP voting twice, and eighth another time. I'm surprised he didn't garner more than his minimal Hall of Fame votes, but he will always have a special place in the hearts of Mets fans. He continues to enchant fans with his intelligent (and oftentimes inappropriate) comments as an analyst during Mets broadcasts.

3. Mike Piazza: 7th in Runs, 6th in Hits, 4th in Doubles, 2nd in HR, 2nd in RBI, 9th in Walks, 6th in BA, 5th in OBP, 1st in SLG, 3rd in OPS.

Numbers three and two on this list are largely interchangeable, considering that they are the former and current faces of the franchise. Not much needs to be said about Mike Piazza, but those who are curious can read my previous post, "The Grimace," from May 20, 2008.

2. David Wright: 9th in Doubles, 9th in HR, 3rd in BA, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 2nd in OPS.

The current face of the franchise will likely hold every single offensive record in Mets history within a few short seasons. He's 14th in Runs, but should be 2nd in three seasons. He's 9th in doubles, but should crack the top five this season. He'll also crack the top five in home runs sometime in July. The list goes on and on. We should watch David Wright play baseball as often as possible, because he is truly a unique talent, and he will hopefully man the hot corner at CitiField for the next 15 years.

1. Darryl Strawberry: 1st in Runs, 7th in Hits, 5th in Doubles, 6th in Triples, 1st in HR, 1st in RBI, 4th in SB, 1st in Walks, 3rd in SLG, 4th in OPS.

Man, Darryl could have been one of the all-time greats. Back in the mid- to late 1980s he was right up there with McGwire and Canseco as the up-and-coming young sluggers. His 1987 and1988 seasons are probably the best individual seasons in Mets history, yet he inexplicably lost the MVP award to a clearly inferior Kirk Gibson in '88. He was my favorite player growing up, and even though my bed time was early when I was six, I always used to ask my parents if I could stay up to see Strawberry's first at-bat.

Honorable mentions: Bobby Bonilla, Robin Ventura, Benny Agbayani (yeah, really. .834 OPS ranked 7th in Mets history), Lance Johnson, Lenny Dykstra, Ed Kranepool, Rey Ordonez (no, not really).

Real Fans

I can't begin to explain to y'all how excited I was to write this post. I do my best writing when I feel like I have important stuff to say. Anyway, I'm driving back to my parents' apartment today and I'm listening to the Michael Kay Show after the Yankees' victory. Anyone who was watching could tell you how exciting it was, how they came back to win after being down 6 - 2 with two outs in the ninth inning and nobody on base. Solo home run, single, walk, single, single, wild pitch, and all of a sudden Alex Rodriguez can win the game with a single to the outfield. And then he hits a walk off home run and they win 8 - 6. Now for anyone who hasn't been paying attention for the past year and a half, if you were to ask any Yankee fan how they feel about Alex Rodriguez and his $25,000,000 per year salary, 90% of them will tell you that he's a scrub; for that much money he should hit 60 home runs and drive in 150, and hit .330. Anything less is inexcusable, especially in the playoffs, where that same percentage of Yankee fans will swear on their grandfather's season tickets that he's never done anything of value. Az basically, the guy was screwed; if he does well, that's what he's supposed to be doing and he's not worthy of praise, but if he sucks a fat one, then he gets booed out of town. Now, all of a sudden, he's the hottest athlete on the planet, and he can't help but hit a home run every day. Seriously, at the rate he's going, he's on pace to hit .351, with 116 home runs, 301 RBI, 197 runs scored, 231 hits, an on base percentage of .418, 12 stolen bases, and a .965 slugging percentage. Obviously, he won't be able to keep up with this torrid pace, but that's not the point. The point is, now that he's succeeding, you have all these Yankee fans coming out of the woodwork and saying things like "oh, I was always defending A-Rod, but none of you cared! I'm a real fan; I don't boo our own players." But where the hell were all of you last year when he got booed every time he got up to the plate? When you listened to the radio last year you never heard from any of his defenders, only from his attackers? How dare you all call yourself real Yankee fans! I can't say I'm ashamed because chas v'chalilah, I would never even attempt to convince anyone that I supported the Yankees. And you know what? This is why. The average fan couldn't give a crap about the players, because they simply don't know a damn thing. Like I said earlier, "Anything less is inexcusable, especially in the playoffs, where that same percentage of Yankee fans will swear on their grandfather's season tickets that he's never done anything of value." Those 90% have no idea that in his post-season career in 132 at-bats, he's hit .280 with 6 home runs, 16 RBI, 19 runs scored, 4 stolen bases, a .375 on base percentage, and a .485 slugging percentage. These are highly respectable numbers for such a small sample size. Wanna hear what else I hate? A guy called in to the Michael Kay Show saying that the Mets fans should also be embarrassed, because they did the same thing with Carlos Beltran in his first year, when he only hit 15 home runs and 79 RBI. To set the record straight, these two situations are completely, totally different. Carlos Beltran had essentially done nothing in his career except have a nice post-season the year before the Mets signed him. He stunk in his first year in New York, az he got booed. But Alex Rodriguez WAS THE FREAKIN MVP IN 2005!!!!! WHO THE HELL DO YOU THINK YOU ARE THAT YOU CAN BOO HIM THE FOLLOWING YEAR?!!!!!! I'm about to call out my roommate, which isn't really fair, but I'll do it anyway. We're sitting in the palace watching baseball, and someone asked us what the most important statistic in baseball is, to which my roommate responded, "batting average." I almost had a seizure. I asked him what the difference is between a .280 hitter and a .320 hitter. You guys know what the difference is? Let me show you. Last year, both Garret Anderson and Carlos Guillen had 543 at-bats. For the average everyday player, this seems to be a fairly pedestrian amount. Garret Anderson hit .280, and Guillen hit .320. Want to know how many more hits Guillen had than Anderson? 22. 22! That's roughly one more hit every 7.5 games. That's roughly 3.5 more hits per month. How is .320 hall of fame material, and .280 isn't? All you fans out there should try to learn more about the game of baseball. Baseball is a dynamic sport that changes all the time. Each and every day, people are coming up with new ways of analyzing the game so that we can get a more complete understanding of how it works. Do yourselves a favor; go to baseballprospectus.com and look up some players. If you're really feeling frisky, sign up to be a member at baseball prospectus for a month so you can get access to players' PECOTA cards. Learn what VORP, WARP3, and FRAA mean. Baseball is a beautiful game, and it's a shame that people are missing out.

Stupid Gifts and How My Mind Works

Az I was at my friend's place last night, and sitting on her table she has a post-it pad shaped like her first initial? Now, what on earth is the point of that? Yes, it's cute the first couple of times, but who wants to have a wall-full of pink letters near her desk? And furthermore, let's say your first initial is a "B," "D," "O," "P," "Q," or "R." You'll be writing your note on the paper and all of a sudden you'll come to a hole on the sheet. Do you continue writing on the other side of the hole, or do you continue writing on the next line? Give me a plain ol' yellow post-it any day. Oh, and I promised she could be a potential hero for giving me the idea for this post. Moving right along.

I was in synagogue yesterday morning praying the silent prayer, when I started to examine the stained glass windows at the front of the room. By the way, I'm recounting my thoughts here to give you all an insight into how my brain works. Anyway, earlier, one of the people sitting nearby mentioned how something on one of the windows evokes the old Milwaukee Brewers' logo, the one with the "m" and "b" made to look like a baseball glove. Az while I was praying I saw the logo look-alike, and I remembered an old ESPN.com article, which discussed potential nicknames for the newer baseball parks. Since the Milwaukee franchise is the Brewers, and brewers make beer, the sponsor for their ballpark is Miller. In the ESPN.com article, they jokingly referred to Miller Park as "The Keg." Brilliant. As soon as I thought of "The Keg," I immediately remembered one of the older Strong Bad e-mails, #44 entitled "Lures & Jigs." When Coach Z asks Strong Bad which lure he's using to attract the fish, Bad responds that he's mostly been using this one: "Hey fish! Hey fiish! I'm gonna, I'm gonna recommend that you guys come up here in the boat. We've got a, uh, a keg! Of worms! And, uh...phytoplankton!" Anyway, all of these thoughts were going through my head during the silent prayer. It's no wonder G-d is too busy laughing at me to actually grant any of my requests. That's okay, He'll come through for me in the end; He always does.

The Big One

Continuing my on-going series of commentary/reactions to Bill Simmons' book "Now I Can Die in Peace," I want to discuss two issues. When Bill proceeds to rehash his feelings during the 1986 playoffs, he mentions that everyone has a team from their teenage years with whom they lived and died. They can remember every pitch, every emotion, every bittersweet tear. For Bill it was the 1986 team that lost arguably the greatest World Series of all time to the New York Mets. Now, I was too young to know what was going on; I was only four, and I'm glad. I don't think I would appreciate baseball as much as I do now if my team had won during my formative years. Anyway, for Bill it was the 1986 Red Sox; for me it was the 1999 Mets. For the second straight year, the Mets, who were in good position to make the playoffs as the wild-card team had to endure a seven game losing streak at the end of September. In 1998 the streak finished us off, but in 1999, we still had a chance to at least tie for the wild-card spot if we could win two out of three on the the last weekend of the season. Anyway, the Mets did, and were forced to play the Cincinnati Reds in a one game playoff, the winner advancing to the playoffs. Al Leiter pitched his best game as a Met and they advanced to face the Arizona Diamondbacks. Two of the four games of that series took place on the Sabbath, so I couldn't watch them, but here's what I remember. On that saturday afternoon, my friend and I walked across the Queensboro Bridge to pass the time. I was wearing my Mets jersey, of course, and just as we were returning to my apartment building, a gentleman on a bicycle callously told us that the Mets had won and were advancing to the NLCS. Little did I know what was in store for me on SportsCenter that night. I got to see Todd Pratt clinch the series in the tenth inning with one of the greatest home runs in team history. Next stop: Atlanta, a veritable gehinom for the Mets over the last decade. There is not much to say about the first three games of that series. My hatred for the Joneses was at an all time high. No matter who was pitching you couldn't get the guys out. I think Chipper had like a .500 OBP for that series. Anyway, I was at the movies with my girlfriend for most of game four. I certainly don't remember what movie it was, but I do remember the yellow radio I had with me. (At this point my brother would insert a clever rejoinder like "still not married, huh?") When John Olerud's bouncer deflected off Rafael Furcal's glove to score the winning run, we almost had to leave the theater. I don't even need to write more than two words to describe my feelings about game five: "Grand Single." I don't think I need to write more than two words about game six either: "Kenny Rogers." Yes, the same Kenny Rogers who looked like he was a flame-throwing 24 year old in the World Series this year. When he walked Andruw Jones to force in the winning run in the ninth inning I was in utter despair. This was my team: Fonzie, Olerud, Rey, Al, Robin, Turk, Mikey. They were like my family; they were at my dinner table every night. Those were good days, innocent days. Geez, that was only seven years ago.

Anyway, the other issue I wanted to discuss was winning the big one. Even in his Red Sox book, Bill prints his article from when the Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2001. He describes his feelings as his team raised the Vince Lombardi trophy after Adam Vinatieri won the Super Bowl with the greatest kick of all time. That got me thinking, how would I react when my team wins the big one. Since I became a coherent, rational human being, the only time a team I supported won a championship was in 1994 when the Rangers beat the Canucks for the Stanley Cup. Now that doesn't count, because even at the time I could probably only name half a dozen of the players. The Giants have won, and the Yankees have won, but neither the Mets nor the Jets have earned the right to be called World Champs over the past 20 years. I don't know how I will react, but at this point I try to compare my relationship with my teams to my dating career. As I'm so fond of saying, you can strike out every time; you only need to hit one home run. Bill says that it's worth it. Keep supporting your team because eventually, they will win the big one. That euphoric feeling you get when your team reaches the pinnacle of its sport is worth all the heartache. So I'm going to write the Jets off for this year, and the Mets obviously broke my heart in October, but at least I still have the four most magical words in sports: "there's always next year."

Favorite of All Time

So this post will be similar to the last post in that both are inspired by Bill Simmons's book, "Now I Can Die in Peace," and both have to do with how we view athletes. (On a side note, while I was at Random McRandom's apartment for dinner on friday night, I skimmed through a bit of the aforementioned "Eats, Shoots, and Leaves," which had been minding its own business on her living room table. I noticed the chapter about apostrophes, and concluded that I didn't realize how many people screw them up. Notice above where I use the word "Simmons's." Since "Simmons" is a proper noun, you must put an apostrophe-S to make it possessive. If, however, I wanted to refer to the Sports Guy and Gal as a unit, I would pluralize them and say "the Simmonses." If I wanted to make them possessive, I would have to write "the Simmonses's house." I know it's absurd, but that's the way it is. Oh, and Random McRandom, at whose apartment I ate on friday night, and I are inextricably linked since we both have a blog. You can check her out, I mean check hers out at http://mabakankan.blogspot.com. I haven't read it yet, but I'll try.) In the second part of the book, Simmons recounts a story about how his buddy Gus, who had Tom Seaver spend time at his house, got to catch for him while Tom was considering making a comeback with the Mets in the early '90s. Bill wants us to understand what was going through his friend Gus's mind while this was going down: "Pick your favorite athlete of all time, then imagine that entire sequence of events somehow unfolding with you and that athlete." Now, I'm trying to imagine being in that situation, but who would the athlete be? I'm trying to create a set of rules for selecting a favorite athlete, and I think I've been pretty thorough.
Disclaimer: Instead or typing "he or she" and "him or her" and "his or her" all the time, I'm just going to use the masculine pronouns. I fully approve of women engaging in sports, and everyone is free to select Sheryl Swoopes or Annika Sorenstam or Danica Patrick for their favorite athlete. Ok, here goes:

1. The athlete must have played for your favorite team for at least a few years, or at the very least made a large impact on your team over a shorter period of time. For example, Arizona Diamondbacks fans are allowed to select Randy Johnson as their favorite player because even though he was there for a short time, he helped them win the World Series.
2. You must have liked the athlete from the beginning of his career. He did not necessarily need to start his career on your team, but you must have liked the athlete even before he arrived to play for you. For example, Mets fans are allowed to select Carlos Beltran, but only if they followed his career in Kansas City from its early stages. Bandwagon jumpers will not be tolerated here.
3. This rule applies not only to favorite players, but also to favorite teams. You cannot choose your favorite player based on anything tangible. You can't say "Albert Pujols is my favorite player because he hits 500 foot home runs," or "Orel Hershiser was my favorite player becase he pitched 59.2 consecutive scoreless innings," or "the Mets are my favorite team because my house is geographically closer to Shea Stadium than to Yankee Stadium." What would happen if those criteria stopped applying? What if you moved to the Bronx? What if Hershiser's record was stricken because of a technicality? This is the same for any kind of love. Saying, "I love my wife because she is a smokin' hottie," is foolish for obvious reasons. There can't be a reason you love someone or something. You love your team just because. You can't explain it; it's a sensation you feel deep inside your very soul. It's not even a consious decision you can make. You know you love a team when everything they do affects you. It's the ones you love who can cause you the most pain. To explain this point, allow me to quote Simmons from later on in the book: "Twenty minutes after the Yankees eliminated the Red Sox, I called my father to make sure he was still alive. And that's not even a joke. I wanted to make sure Dad wasn't dead. That's what it feels like to be a Sox fan. You make phone calls thinking to yourself, 'Hopefully, my dad picks up, because there's at least a five percent chance that the Red Sox just killed him.'" You live and die by your favorite players and your favorite teams; you can't help it.

With these thoughts in mind, I need to decide who my favorite player is. I can't come up with a list of players I like and then narrow it down; I need to look deep within myself and let my emotions decide for me. I realize that my mind already knows who it is, but it's keeping its thoughts to itself for the time being. It might be Wayne Chrebet, who left his heart out on the field every time he put on the green and white, and gave me a concussion every time he got one. It might be David Wright, who looks like he won the lottery every time he strolls out of the dugout, because he knows he gets to play baseball for a living. He might not even be on any sports radar yet, because he's only 11 years old. It might not even be fair for me to have a favorite player yet, because I'm only 24, and G-d willing I have 60 more years of watching sports ahead of me. For now, I'll continue to watch the players I like, and hopefully the moment will come when I know who my sports hero is.

Heroes

So, yesterday I started reading "Now I Can Die in Peace" by Bill Simmons, aka. The Sports Guy. I can foresee that I will make numerous references to this book for the next week or two, because Bill is hilarious, and I love sports. Had I been writing a blog when I read "Moneyball," the same thing would have happened. I mean, all I could talk about while I was reading moneyball was Scott Hatteberg (sole member of the most potent lineup in baseball), Kevin Youkilis (the Greek God of Walks), and Jason Giambi. I tried not to talk about Scott Kazmir a lot because every time he was mentioned in the book, and subsequently on SportsCenter, I died a little inside. I guess this also happened while I was reading a couple of books about e, Pi, and the Golden Ratio, but I won't regale you with those tales of suspense because my purpose here is not to put you to sleep. Although, there was this time I was discussing the theory of Special Relativity as described in Brian Greene's "The Elegant Universe," and someone actually asked me to explain it to her again, but that was a statistical anomaly.
Anyway, moving right along, all I've read thusfar of Simmons's book is the prologue, and already it's begun to have an impact on my life. On page 14, Bill explains how he almost became a Mets fan in 1985 because he moved to southern Connecticut as a result of his parents' divorce, the Red Sox had just given away his childhood hero (Fred Lynn), and the Mets had a solid core of young talent (Darryl Strawberry, Doc Gooden, etc.). This innocent statement got me thinking about who my childhood heroes were, and who my heroes are today. It's only natural for a boy to embrace his favorite sports players as heroes, especially because they seemed to truly play for love of the game and not for the exorbitant contracts for which they play today. When I became sports fan at the age of five in 1987, it was also natural for me to embrace the players on my team as my heroes. But looking back, would it be fair for me to call Darryl Strawberry my childhood hero? When my parents set my bedtime at 8:00, I was always praying that the Mets would get a runner on base in the first inning, so Darryl would get an at-bat before 8:00. 1988 was a magical year for the Mets, who finished with the best record in the National League and lost an epic seven game series to Orel Hershiser and the Los Angeles Dogders, who then went on to defeat the Oakland Athletics in the World Series. When the Dodgers exploded for six runs to start the seventh game of that series, I really cried. The only other time I can remember crying because of a sports-related event was in 1999 when my New York Jets lost the AFC championship game to the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. But back to my point; who were these misfits who captured my heart in the mid/late 80s? Were they my childhood heroes? What is a hero? According to Dictionary.com, a hero is "a person of distinguished courage or ability, admired for his/her brave deeds and noble qualities." In what way is an athlete a hero? I guess you could call Lance Armstrong a hero for overcoming incredible odds and inspiring millions of people across the globe. But Darryl Strawberry was certainly no hero. He was a tall, thin man who was gifted with the ability to swing a wooden stick well. Was Fred Lynn a hero? Was Babe Ruth a hero? Is Barry Bonds a hero? I want to think of someone whom I can embrace as a hero, someone who embodies all the characteristics I admire. First, I need to determine what these characteristics are. I think the biggest indicator of someone with heroic qualities is someone who's approval I would strive to seek. I need to consider this carefully. If anyone wants to describe a hero of theirs, just so I could know some sample responses, that would be terrific.

Oh, and as a side note, in order to maintain the grammatical integrity of my site, my brother added another comment to the Thanksgiving post, so that below the post it said "2 comments." So, if anyone wants to respond to my Heroes post, please put two up there if you're the first. Gracias.

Game 7

First of all, not to toot my own horn, or pat myself on the back, or tie my own shoes, or make my own bed, or wipe my own @$$, a la Big Daddy, or alley my own oop, or march to the beat of my own drum, or anything, but I'd be a way better sportscaster than Tim McCarver or Joe Buck. I used to love Timmy Mac back when he was announcing for the Mets, and I went ballistic when he was replaced by Tom Seaver. That guy shouldn't quit his day job, whatever it is. Tim, however, is just a shell of his former self. Hell, I'd be down on myself too if I had to play second fiddle to Joe "I wish I were Jack Jr." Buck. Anway, the reason I say that I'm better than they are is that on at least three separate occasions during the game last night I pre-empted something that one or the other of them said. I predicted which relief pitchers they would bring in based on who was warming up and who was coming to bat. I predicted who would be intentionally walked and when they'd bring in the new pitcher. And the only tool I had was what was shown on the TV screen, and my challah-roll sized brain. I'm in the wrong business.

Anyway, tachlis. Tonight is game 7 of the NLCS. The term "Game 7" has taken on a life of its own. Game 7 is like the last day of finals when you're still in school. You haven't showered in 6 days, there's trash around because you're too busy to clean up, and you sorta lose track of the time and the date. The only difference is instead of the 17 empty beer bottles around the uh, recycling area, aka the general floor area between my desk and the couch, they would be empty coke bottles. With this in mind, I'd like to share my thoughts on what will happen tonight, IMHO.

As I was reminded earlier today, Oliver Perez, the Mets' starting pitcher, who had a 3-13 record this year, will have the worst record of any NL pitcher starting a game 7 ever. Here is how, I believe, events will unfold. Perez will pitch no more than 4 innings tonight. He will walk 3, strikeout 4 and give up one home run to Albert Pujols. Now, let's turn to Jeff Suppan, the Cardinals' pitcher tonight. He was lights out in game 3 in St. Louis, but let's look at the stats. He had a 3.18 ERA at home and a 5.36 ERA on the road. This one doesn't really make a difference to me, but it's something I noticed: In day games, he had a 3.36 ERA, and in night games he had a 4.62 ERA. Chances are he won't be nearly as dominant as he was on Saturday night. I think both pitchers will be on a very short leash, and the instant they get into trouble their respective nights will be over. Suppan will give up 3 runs in 5 innings. After 5 innings, the Mets will be leading 3-1. I'mma go ahead and predict that the final score will be the same as last night: 4-2 Mets. Reyes will be 2-4 with a stolen base and 2 runs scored. Lo Duca will be 1-3 with a sac bunt. Beltran, Delgado and Wright will each have at least one RBI. Of course, I could be totally off and it'll be a slugfest. Either way, I hope I make it out of this alive.

Poo-holes

Since my Mets finally played a game last night, I can share some of my thoughts. So I tuned in to Mike and Mike in the morning on ESPN radio, quite possibly the best sports talk show in the entire universe. I like to think of myself as a cross between Greenberg and Golic; on the one hand I would love to talk sports, watch football, eat sumo-burgers and get fat all day, and generally be macho, but on the other I like to wear pink shirts and generally be in touch with my feminine side. Anyway, they said that Albert Pujols reportedly expressed that he was unimpressed with the Mets and that Tom Glavine did not pitch well. Granted, St. Louis did hit some balls hard and came up empty, but for Pujols, arguably the game's best hitter and all-around nice guy, to say such things seems entirely out of character. Pujols might just be the best thing Major League Baseball has going for it. In an era where every player who hits a home run is suspected of engaging in foul play, e.g. steroids, HGH, etc., Pujols is as pure as pure can get. He is the consummate athlete; he plays hard, hits monstrous home runs, gets on base every other at bat, and he is even a devout Catholic. I understand that he was frustrated with the loss, especially since his hard liner to lead off the 9th inning against Billy Wagner was snared by Carlos Delgado. But as an ambassador to the game, and a role model for millions, he needs to watch what he says, especially when referring to one of the top 10, maybe top 5 left-handed pitchers of all time and a surefire first-ballot hall of famer. He should just eat his pride and admit that Glavine pitched a helluva ballgame and come back tomorrow and let his bat do the talking.

A Few More Thoughts About a Few More Things

So, I was reading Bill Simmons, the Sports Guy's article today on ESPN.com, and before the football season started, he assigned his lovely wife, the Sports Gal, to pick the winners against the spread for each football game so that he could know if someone who knows very little about sports could do a better job than him. In exchange, he agreed to let her write a short column inside of his football column each week. Just to keep you updated, The Sports Gal is 35-23-2, and the Sports Guy is 29-29-2. But she said the funniest thing in her column today. She said that they had to get a second phone line in their house just for Hench's phone calls, because he would call all the time to talk about their fantasy baseball team. She claims that Hench and Bill refer to that phone as the "Bat Phone." That cracks me up.

Something else. As a Mets fan, Ocbober is a very hard month. When you're a Yankees fan, and you get to watch them in the playoffs every year it just seems like an extension of the season, so it's only slightly more nerve-wracking than the rest of the year. But for us, this month is impossible. Every pitch makes you sweat. If your pitcher throws a strike you celebrate like you just won the World Series, but if he throws a ball you cry like you just lost it. The last time my team was in the playoffs was 6 years ago, so now I'm 6 years closer to dying from my first heart-attack or brain aneurysm. I need to ask some Yankee fans for their advice on how to cope with this. I promise you that I will not be able to sleep tomorrow night because the Mets will be playing and I won't be able to watch. My hosts might as well just bring the newspaper up to my room the instant it gets delivered and wake me up by rolling it up and smacking me upside the head with it.

More. I think when I'm talking or writing about things that are happening "today" or "tonight," in order to better emphasize the importance of my words, I should replace "today" with "this day" and "tonight" with "this night." Watch how much how much better this reads: "The Mets are destined to win on this night." That's so much more dramatic than "The Mets are destined to win tonight." The latter makes me sound like a fan who can only name half of their starting lineup, while the former makes me sound like veteran sports caster. Please remind me to do this, but if it gets annoying, please ask me to stop.

A few thoughts about Sukkot, my favorite holiday. I realized that Sukkot is my favorite holiday for several reasons. Even though you might not want to hear them, I'm going to share them with you anyway. This is my blog, and I can do whatever I want, so tough! Anyway, this is the only holiday I can think of where you are actually holding onto objects while you pray, excluding the prayer-book of course. I really feel like I concentrate better while I'm praying when I'm holding onto something, especially something like a lulav. I hate to use meaningless metaphors, but I feel it's like an antenna broadcasting my prayers to the radio in the celestial family room. I get to shake it at times, and at other times I can just hold it close to my body while all of us in synagogue are singing our prayers aloud. Now, I'm very particular about which Lulav I pick, which is really fortunate because most of the judaica stores sell their Lulav and Etrog sets based on the beauty and condition of the Etrog. I try to get a small Lulav if I can, and if it still has the brown jazz towards the top of it, which holds the "leaves" together, then that's even better. So, if you need to borrow my Lulav and Etrog this week, please don't shake it around like a grogger. It is a holy item and should be shown due respect. Anyway, I also like Sukkot because the theme is futuristic. We pretend that the Sukkah is covered with the skin of the Leviathan, which will be eaten by the sages at the end of days. I really appreciate that sort of stuff.

Okay, that's all. Thinking about the holiday has gotten me in a good mood, so I know it will be a good one. Plus, I bought some nice Scotch. I deserve it.

Derek Jeter

I didn't want it to come to this, but I have been forced by the abundance of fools out there to do an ongoing playoff commentary. This morning's subject is the incomparable, immortal, too good for his own good, the Yankee captain, the one and only, Derek Sanderson Jeter. I intend to set the record straight in terms of how I feel about his performance on the field of play, i.e. the only place where things matter. Without further adieu, let's begin.

Derek Jeter is a top MVP candidate in the American League this year. He had, at the very worst, the 2nd best season of his career. I would like to compare his statistics to a few other players, some of whom are also viable MVP candidates.

Jeter: .343 AVG, 118 Runs, 214 Hits, 97 RBI, 39 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 102 Ks, 69 BBs, 34 SB, .417 OBP, .483 SLG, .900 OPS

Ortiz: .287 AVG, 115 Runs, 160 Hits, 137 RBI, 29 2B, 2 3B, 54 HR, 117 Ks, 119 BBs, 1 SB, .413 OBP, .636 SLG, 1.049 OPS

Dye: .315 AVG, 103 Runs, 170 Hits, 120 RBI, 27 2B, 3 3B, 44 HR, 118 Ks, 59 BBs, 7 SB, .385 OBP, .622 SLG, 1.007 OPS

Mauer: .347 AVG, 86 Runs, 181 Hits, 84 RBI, 36 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 54 Ks, 79 BBs, 8 SB, .429 OBP, .507 SLG, .936 OPS

Morneau: .321 AVG, 97 Runs, 190 Hits, 130 RBI, 37 2B, 1 3B, 34 HR, 93 Ks, 53 BBs, 3 SB, .375 OBP, .507 SLG, .934 OPS

Rodriguez: .290 AVG, 113 Runs, 166 Hits, 121 RBI, 26 2B, 1 3B, 35 HR, 139 Ks, 90 BBs, 15 SB, .392 OBP, .523 SLG, .915 OPS

What can we glean from this? It seems that Derek Jeter does a little bit of everything. 97 RBI from the 2 hole is very impressive, although not surprising considering Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon got on base all the time. He hits for average as well as Mauer, he has more hits than all of them, strikes out a bit much and doesn't walk as much, but that's mostly because they can't pitch around him because of who bats behind him.
Now we'll look at one of the more popular new-fangled stats out there. VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player. This statistic shows how much more valuable a player is than the average bench player in terms of how much run production he adds to his team. Without going through all the calculations, it was determined on baseballprospectus.com, that Jeter's VORP for the season was 79.2. In other words, Jeter is worth around 79 more runs per season than, say, Miguel Cairo. 79.2 was the 4th highest VORP in the league behind Albert Pujols (86.6), Ryan Howard (81.3), and Travis Hafner (80.4).
So, what have we determined? Jeter is a great player. We'll say more about him soon.

On the cover of the most recent issue of ESPN the Magazine sits Jose Reyes. They argue that Reyes might be the best shortstop in New York. Truth be told, I find it unfair to compare the two of them, because Jeter has been great for over a decade now, and Reyes is only 23. But, because it's fun, let's compare them anyway. Again:

Jeter: .343 AVG, 118 Runs, 214 Hits, 97 RBI, 39 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 102 Ks, 69 BBs, 34 SB, .417 OBP, .483 SLG, .900 OPS in 623 ABs

Reyes: .300 AVG, 122 Runs, 194 Hits, 81 RBI, 30 2B, 17 3B, 19 HR, 81 Ks, 53 BBs, 64 SB, .354 OBP, .487 SLG, .841 OPS in 647 ABs

Jeter is clearly a more experienced hitter, since he has 16 more BBs in 24 fewer at bats. Again, 97 RBI from the 2 hole is extremely impressive, but I would venture to say that 81 RBI from the leadoff spot on a National League team with the pitcher batting 9th is even more impressive. Reyes's improvement over last year in every statistical category is almost mind-boggling: 23 more Runs, 4 more hits, 6 more doubles, the same amount of triples (first guy to hit 17 triples in two straight seasons in the last half century), 12 more HRs, 23 more RBI, a frightening 26 more walks, 4 more stolen bases, .27 higher batting average, an absurd .54 higher OBP, and an astounding .101 higher SLG, giving him .155 higher OPS.

My point is this: Right now, Derek Jeter is a better shortstop. If I could trade Jose Reyes for Derek Jeter just for the playoffs, I think I would. I'm not one of these morons who says, "oh, he has a very high ceiling...tremendous upside, etc." Even if Reyes puts up the same numbers for the next 15 years, he's a Hall of Famer. He probably will continue to improve, but for this discussion it's irrelevent. Derek Jeter is better right now. Period.

At this point I want to call attention to his play last night. 5 for 5 with a home run, 3 runs scored and an RBI was a performance for the ages. I heard it was the 6th time a player has ever had 5 hits in a playoff game. The Yankees won last night largely because of Jeter's play. Not, I repeat, NOT because he's Captain Intangibles. Joe Morgan, Tim McCarver, Michael Kay, and all their smelly brethren do nothing but insult their hero Jeter when they refer to him as such. As a math guy, the only thing I look for to determine a player's value is his play on the field. Jeter's numbers speak for themselves. For him to be called Captain Intangibles means that there is something lacking in his baseball skills. I want to call your attention to two plays, which fans/commentators always enjoy mentioning; the flip to Posada that Jeter made on Jeremy Giambi against the Oakland A's in the playoffs, and the play last year against the Red Sox when he fell into the stands. These were terrific plays, plain and simple. But to say that the reason the Yankees win is because Derek Jeter does things like that is just silly talk. I'm not saying that every player would be able to make those plays; I just think that he was in the right place at the right time. You cheer him because his face came away bloody. That doesn't make the play any greater than it would have been if he had come away unscathed. My point is that the Yankees win because Derek Jeter is a very good baseball player. As for Reyes, we'll check back in a few years and see how he's doing. But for now, Derek Jeter is the king of New York.

Playoffs

There are a few things about which I know a lot. Many of these things are, in the grand scheme of things, useless. Such as the ability to solve a Rubik's cube, or being able to determine the day of the week for any date. Another one of these things is baseball. And now, for the first time in 6 years, my team is in the playoffs, the mighty Metropolitans of the city, state, but not county, of New York. Many people with whom I have spoken have wagered against the Mets in their first round matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, especially since their #1 pitcher Pedro Martinez has been left off of the postseason roster due to injury. There are those of you who say that the Mets have no pitching. To all you nay-sayers, I have these thoughts:

The Mets named Orlando Hernandez as their #1 postseason pitcher: His stats over his last 6 starts are as follows:
6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 8 Ks, 1 BB
5.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER. 4 Ks, 6 BB
7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 7 K. 1 BB
7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 8 K, 1BB
5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9 K, 5 BB

For an ERA of 1.70, a WHIP of 1.07, and 42 Ks in 37.1 innings
Just for argument's sake, let's compare his stats to the leading AL Cy Young Award candidate, Johan Santana's stats over his last 5 starts.
Hernandez: 37.1 IP, 1.70 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 42 Ks, 15 BBs
Santana: 35.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 38 Ks, 7 BBs

Now, let's discuss Hernandez's postseason statistics for his Major League career. Over the past 8 seasons, he has appeared in the postseason 7 times and has pitched 106 innings. He has compiled a 9-3 record with a 2.55 ERA. He has also struck out 107 batters in those 106 innings.

I'm not saying he's the greatest pitcher of all time; I'm just saying you could do far worse with your starting pitcher for the first game of the playoffs.

Now, let's discuss the bullpens. Steve Trachsel, the Mets 4th starter has been the beneficiary of timely hitting and a solid bullpen during the season. He sported a pedestrian 4.97 ERA, but with a record of 15-8. In other words, if the Mets can get through 5-6 innings with the lead, they have a very good chance of winning. Their bullpen record stands at 32-15 with 43 saves. They also have the 2nd best ERA in all of baseball, at 3.28. The only team with a better bullpen ERA is the Minnesota Twins at 2.91. What I am trying to say here is that the starting pitching doesn't need to be spectacular and lights out for the Mets to have a good chance to win.

Now, let's discuss the New York Mets as a whole. The key dates, which I'll be using here are August 9th and September 18th. August 9th is the date of Pedro Martinez's last healthy start. Between August 10th and September 18th, Pedro pitched twice and lost both decisions while pitching horribly. September 18th is the date the Mets clinched the National League East division. Anything that happened afterwards was, for all intents and purposes, meaningless. The Mets played 37 games during that span and posted a 23-14 record. Even if we include Pedro's two starts, only one team in baseball has a better record over that span. The Oakland A's won 24 against 11 losses during that span. Every other team to whom they are worth comparing have worse records, including the mighty Yankees (24-16), the red-hot Minnesota Twins (21-15), the upstart Tigers (14-22), and their first round opponent, the Los Angeles Dodgers (21-15).

These are my thoughts going into the postseason. Am I concerned about the Dodgers? Yes. Am I overly concerned about the Dodgers? No. Am I concerned about any 2nd round team in a 7-game series? No. Would I be surprised if they steam-rolled their way into the World Series? Absolutely not.

Now I'll make like the Sports Guy and submit my playoff picks.

NLDS: Mets over Dodgers 3-1
Cardinals over Padres 3-1
ALDS: Yankees over Tigers 3-0
Twins over A's 3-2
NLCS: Mets over Cardinals 4-1
ALCS: Yankees over Twins 4-2

I hesitate to pick a World Series winnner, so I won't. I'll just leave that one up to the man upstairs. Thanks for reading, everyone. I mean, thanks for writing, Schmutter.