The Best Driver of All Time

Yep, I'm talking about me. A bunch of us were at the Mets game last night, but only three of us stayed until the last out. I was driving, and the remaining two were my passengers. So after the game we walked over to my car, which was parked outside the stadium on Roosevelt Avenue. After a couple of right turns and a left, and we found ourselves going eastbound on the Grand Central Parkway. Two exits and a drop of traffic later, we got onto the Van Wyck Expressway northbound towards the Whitestone Bridge, my route of choice on the way back to the Heights from Shea. Az we crossed the bridge ($5 toll these days) and made our way towards the Cross Bronx Expressway southbound towards the George Washington Bridge. There should be very minimal traffic along that route at 11:00 pm. Lo and behold, as we were merging onto the Cross Bronx we noticed that the cars were mamash not moving. At all. Luckily it was 10:57, az I quickly turned my radio to News Radio 880 and heard the traffic report.

Remember my fourth post? On August 17th, 2006, I wrote a post listing a couple of things that shouldn't be allowed:
"1. Closing the lower level on the George Washington Bridge and only having two lanes open on the upper roadway. Closing west 178th street between Broadway and Ft. Washington is bad too.
2. When ESPN has little league baseball and ESPN2 has women's basketball at the same time."

Well, believe it or not, last night had both of those things on steroids. On the traffic report, we were told that the entire outbound lower level of the George was closed because of a tractor-trailor accident, and one lane of the upper level was closed because of another truck accident. I politely asked my passengers to buckle their safety belts if they had not already, and proceeded to reverse the car for 100 feet or so on the shoulder and got onto the Bruckner Expressway towards the Triboro Bridge. Okay, so it wasn't the best idea in the whole world, but there were only a couple of cars behind me. The awesome thing was that a bunch of cars in front of me started following my lead. It was drive-tastic! Anyway, we took the Bruckner entry road until it merged with the main part of the highway, and we hit traffic again! The right lane of the entry road was closed too, if you can believe that. Now one thing I absolutely refused to do was pay another toll for the Triboro Bridge; it's against my religion to do that. Az I exited the Bruckner towards the Major Deegan Expressway, where I would get off one exit later and get on the Third Avenue Bridge into Manhattan. Guess what. More lane closures on the Deegan! I'm sorry. You cannot have two-thirds of the GWB closed, the entry lane onto the Bruckner closed, and one lane on the Deegan closed all at the same time. It was absolute chaos. Anyway, another ten minutes on the Deegan before I got off. Once we were off the highway it was smooth sailing; we took the Third Avenue Bridge and exited onto 129th street and Lexington Avenue, and we took the city streets up to the Heights. In total, the drive took a drop over an hour, really excellent all things considered. We heard from someone in another car on the way back, and they had left about 20 minutes before we did. We were two minutes away from my apartment when they called, and they were still on the Cross Bronx. I felt terrible for them, but I was enormously pleased with myself.

Oh yeah, and when I finally got home I really wanted to watch SportsCenter so I could see highlights of the game; I wanted to see David Wright's two home runs. Would you believe that ESPN was broadcasting the Women's College Softball World Series and ESPN2 was broadcasting NASCAR Now? It was absurd. I guess it was the Big Guy telling me it was time for bed.

The List

On July 20, 2007, I wrote a post in which I described things that should not happen while walking on the street. These include stopping in the middle of the sidewalk all of a sudden, and re-entering pedestrian traffic from the side of the street. I'd like to add one more in there: walking backwards. It's ridiculous that I even need to say it, but seriously, if you're in Times Square and you're not putting on an act, don't walk backwards! I mean, are you kidding me?

Hey, ever notice that "Are you kidding me?" and "Are you serious?" mean exactly the same thing?

Az I read a post by Joe Posnanski yesterday, in which he struggles to answer the following question: who is the best everyday player in Mets history? This question is particularly relevant in the wake of Mike Piazza's retirement. He says that for now this is a very tough question, but it will become a moot point in a few years, at which time David Wright will own every single offensive team record. Meanwhile, I decided to come up with my own list of greatest everyday Mets players ever, counting down backwards from ten (stats current as of May 22, 2008. Stats are ranked among players with at least 1000 plate appearences):

10. Mookie Wilson: 4th in ABs, 4th in Runs, 4th in Hits, 4th in Singles, 7th in Doubles, 1st in Triples, 1st in Stolen Bases.

Granted the Mook wasn't a very valuable player, but he holds every Mets speed record to date (until broken by #9 in a year or two). And when you're involved in the most memorable play in Mets history, you need to be on this kind of list.

9. Jose Reyes: 2nd in Triples, 2nd in Stolen Bases.

Reyes is short of the all time Mets record in Triples (by 5) and Stolen Bases (by 33). He should reach both of those milestones this season, and will probably end up doubling both records by the time his career as a Met is over. As such, he will likely move up (or down) this list over the next few years. I'm looking forward to seeing him involved in many memorable plays in the near future.

8. Carlos Beltran: 4th in SLG, 5th in OPS.

He's only played in 479 games as a Met, but he has established himself as one of the most productive Mets on a game-to-game basis. He is also probably the very best defensive center fielder the Mets have ever had, and he is an outstanding base runner (63 SB and 17 CS).

7. Edgardo Alfonzo: 3rd in Runs, 3rd in Hits, 3rd in Doubles, 7th in HR, 5th in RBI, 6th in Walks, 7th in BA, 8th in OBP.

While Fonzie had a far-from-memorable career, his star shone extremely brightly during his years in New York. He brought a consistency on offense and defense, which helped the Mets win every day. He also remains the only Met to date to record a six-hit game. On August 30th, 1999, Alfonzo connected for three home runs and a double in a six-for-six day against the Houston Astros.

6. John Olerud: 2nd in BA, 1st in OBP, 5th in SLG, 1st in OPS.

The only reason Olerud's numbers don't propel him higher on this list is that he only played as a Met for three years. But in those three years he proved to be the best everyday hitter the Mets have ever had (at least according to OPS). He sported a juicy .425 OBP and brought gold-glove caliber play to first base. For more information on Olerud, see my post "A Walk Down the Memory Baseline," from January 8th, 2008.

5. Howard Johnson: 2nd in Runs, 8th in Hits, 2nd in Doubles, 3rd in HR, 3rd in RBI, 3rd in SB, 3rd in Walks.

Hojo's greatness can mostly be attributed to his longevity in a Mets uniform, however his production during the low-offense 1980s was well above league average. Among the five 30 HR / 30 SB seasons in Mets history, Hojo has three of them. In two of those seasons he won the Silver Slugger award for third basemen. His contributions to the Mets continue today as their hitting coach.

4. Keith Hernandez: 8th in Doubles, 7th in RBI, 5th in Walks, 4th in BA, 4th in OBP.

During his tenure in New York, Hernandez solidified his claim as perhaps the best defensive first baseman of all time. But he sure could swing the bat well too. He finished in the top five in MVP voting twice, and eighth another time. I'm surprised he didn't garner more than his minimal Hall of Fame votes, but he will always have a special place in the hearts of Mets fans. He continues to enchant fans with his intelligent (and oftentimes inappropriate) comments as an analyst during Mets broadcasts.

3. Mike Piazza: 7th in Runs, 6th in Hits, 4th in Doubles, 2nd in HR, 2nd in RBI, 9th in Walks, 6th in BA, 5th in OBP, 1st in SLG, 3rd in OPS.

Numbers three and two on this list are largely interchangeable, considering that they are the former and current faces of the franchise. Not much needs to be said about Mike Piazza, but those who are curious can read my previous post, "The Grimace," from May 20, 2008.

2. David Wright: 9th in Doubles, 9th in HR, 3rd in BA, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 2nd in OPS.

The current face of the franchise will likely hold every single offensive record in Mets history within a few short seasons. He's 14th in Runs, but should be 2nd in three seasons. He's 9th in doubles, but should crack the top five this season. He'll also crack the top five in home runs sometime in July. The list goes on and on. We should watch David Wright play baseball as often as possible, because he is truly a unique talent, and he will hopefully man the hot corner at CitiField for the next 15 years.

1. Darryl Strawberry: 1st in Runs, 7th in Hits, 5th in Doubles, 6th in Triples, 1st in HR, 1st in RBI, 4th in SB, 1st in Walks, 3rd in SLG, 4th in OPS.

Man, Darryl could have been one of the all-time greats. Back in the mid- to late 1980s he was right up there with McGwire and Canseco as the up-and-coming young sluggers. His 1987 and1988 seasons are probably the best individual seasons in Mets history, yet he inexplicably lost the MVP award to a clearly inferior Kirk Gibson in '88. He was my favorite player growing up, and even though my bed time was early when I was six, I always used to ask my parents if I could stay up to see Strawberry's first at-bat.

Honorable mentions: Bobby Bonilla, Robin Ventura, Benny Agbayani (yeah, really. .834 OPS ranked 7th in Mets history), Lance Johnson, Lenny Dykstra, Ed Kranepool, Rey Ordonez (no, not really).

The Grimace

I promise I'll get to Mike Piazza in a minute, but first a little more driving. Some of you might be interested in that, while none of you are interested in baseball.

So I came up with a couple of new driving pet-peeves, which I'm sure everyone is just dying to know. You know how there are "turn only" and "exit only" lanes all over the place? Well they're there for a bloody reason! If you are in one of those lanes you better freakin' do what the signs tell you to do. If you're headed southbound on the Harlem River Drive and you're driving in the right lane near 125th street that is "exit only" onto the Triboro Bridge, then you sure as hell better be getting onto that bridge. If you decide to be cool and use that lane to get ahead of the traffic in the other two non-"exit only" lanes, then all you're doing is creating a problem. You're going to cut off someone in the middle lane, and while you're waiting to cut in you're preventing the people behind you from actually getting on the bridge; a privelege they have earned by being in the correct lane and by shelling out the six dollars for the toll. Honestly, I couldn't care less if getting on the Triboro Bridge costs you six dollars you don't have and takes you an hour out of your way; wait in traffic in the left two lanes like everybody else. The only way you are allowed to break this rule is if you're not going to screw anybody else. If there are few cars on the road (at maybe 4:00 am) then be my guest. Otherwise, make sure you're in the correct lane. You know the intersection on 96th street and 1st avenue? I've mentioned it before because it's a horrible traffic light situation what with all the traffic getting on and off the FDR Drive. Anyway if you're driving east on 96th street, the right lane is "right turn only" going towards York Avenue. I once saw a guy try to cut into the traffic going onto the FDR from that lane, but a traffic cop wouldn't let him and forced him to make the turn. It was outstanding.

Now this one really pisses me off. U-turns are illegal in most places, and I admit that I have made many U-turns in my day. However, as with most things, I have no problem with people making U-turns as long as you're not screwing anybody else. Make a U-turn when no one is around. However, inasumch as they are illegal, don't start your U-turn when there are cars coming at you from the other direction. You see, this is the opposite of "not screwing anybody else." Never has this bothered me more than yesterday evening. I had to go to the cleaners on Ft. Washington Avenue to drop off my tuxedo before driving home to the East Side, az I drove up Overlook Terrace towards Ft. Wash. Now Overlook Terrace is one lane in each direction, i.e. an inopportune place to make a U-turn. Believe it or not, a car coming down the hill started to make a U-turn just as I got there; I literally had to slam on the breaks. Okay fine, I wasn't in a terrible hurry, whatever. Now a plain old K-turn should get the job done, but this driver was so incompetent that it was more like a pentagram-turn. Hey, just as a little tip, don't be afraid to get up close and personal with the parked cars. You don't need to start reversing when you're 10 feet away from the next car; keep on going until you're a foot away. That way you won't have to change directions 84 times to turn around (a la Austin Powers). At that point I started honking the guy. And then you know what he did? He actually decided better of things and began undoing his K-turn. Az after switching from Drive to Reverse countless times, he ended up going in the same direction as when he started. Needless to say, I was displeased.

Now onto baseball. I was reading baseballmusings.com yesterday, and Pinto wrote a post about Ryan Ludwick, the St. Louis Cardinals outfielder who hit his twelfth home run. He noted that "his .767 slugging percentage is more than twice his .342 batting average, meaning his average hit is more than a double." So that's pretty cool. Since I'm obsessed with slugging percentage these days I decided to check last year's stats to see if anyone accomplished that feat last season. It turns out that among players who qualified for the batting title (bizarrely 3.1 plate appearances per team game, or 502 plate appearances over 162 games), six did it in 2007 (in reverse order):

Jim Thome: .275 AVG, .563 SLG, 119 Hits, 65 1B, 19 2B, 35 HR, totaling 2.042 bases-per-hit (BPH).

Alex Rodriguez: .314 AVG, .645 SLG, 183 Hits, 98 1B, 31 2B, 54 HR, totaling 2.055 BPH.

Adam Dunn: .264 AVG, .554 SLG, 138 Hits, 69 1B, 27 2B, 2 3B, 40 HR, totaling 2.094 BPH.

Prince Fielder: .288 AVG, .618 SLG, 165 Hits, 78 1B, 35 2B, 2 3B, 50 HR, totaling 2.145 BPH.

Ryan Howard: .268 AVG, .584 SLG, 142 Hits, 69 1B, 26 2B, 47 HR, totaling 2.176 BPH.

Carlos Pena: .282 AVG, .627 SLG, 138 Hits, 62 1B, 29 2B, 1 3B, 46 HR, totaling 2.225 BPH.

I would say A-Rod's feat is the most impressive because he's the only one who accomplished it with a batting average above .300. Let's see how these guys are doing this season (all stats through May 20th):

Jim Thome: .206 AVG, .418 SLG, 29 Hits, 15 1B, 6 2B, 8 HR, totaling 2.029 BPH.

A-Rod: Nope.

Adam Dunn: .234 AVG, .508 SLG, 32 Hits, 17 1B, 4 2B, 11 HR, totaling 2.171 BPH.

Prince Fielder: Nope.

Ryan Howard: .183 AVG, .396 SLG, 31 Hits, 16 1B, 4 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, totaling 2.164 BPH.

Carlos Pena: Nope.

Just for fun, let's look at Jason Giambi: .204 AVG, .469 SLG, 23 Hits, 9 1B, 6 2B, 8 HR, 2.299 BPH. Wow!

And now, Lance Berkman, who is absolutely ripping it up so far: .388 AVG, .776 SLG, 66 Hits, 33 1B, 16 2B, 1 3B, 16 Hr, 2.000 BPH. Ridiculous.

Anyway, that was a fun exercise. Let's move on to the reason for this post, the retirement of Mike Piazza.

I don't think I need to go through the stats; he's clearly the greatest hitting catcher of all time, and he's a first ballot Hall-of-Famer. Everyone knows this. I want to share a couple of my own memories of him. A few posts ago I regaled you with the story of the eighth inning of a Mets game against the Braves on June 30th, 2000: "I remember watching the highlights and seeing the fans by the first base line going absolutely berserk. Piazza is running towards first base and when his batted ball clears the fence he pumps his right fist in boyish glee. Here's a guy who's making $90 million and he's going ballistic because he hit a ball over a fence during a game in June." Another one I remember vividly was a game on April 28th, 1999. I was watching it at my cousins' house in Connecticut. The Padres were the defending National League champions; they had lost the World Series to the Yankees in 1998. Trevor Hoffman, the Padres closer, had saved 23 consecutive games and was coming off a season in which he had saved 53 games with a 1.48 ERA. The Mets were down 3-2 in the ninth inning, and Piazza hit a monstrous home run to right field with John Olerud on first. Mets win 4-3. It was such an unbelievable home run; the pitch was probably six inches outside and eight inches high, but nobody I ever watched could hit a ball the other way like Mike Piazza. Nobody got around on pitches with such incredible bat speed like Piazza (except Gary Sheffield). And when he hit a home run, he would scrunch up his face in a classic grimace. It was as though he was so excited to hit a home run but he didn't want to show it, so it turned into a snarl. I remember Roger Clemens beaning him in the head. I remember Clemens throwing the bat-head at him in the World Series. I remember his first hit as a met, an opposite field double into the gap. I remember being at my buddy's house in Great Neck on a Saturday night, when they announced the trade on Sports Center. I remember watching games at home and my grandma saying "that Mike Piazza... oooh is he good looking!" Mike, thanks for all the memories. I'll end with a quote from Mike as reported by the Associated Press: "But I have to say that my time with the Mets wouldn't have been the same without the greatest fans in the world," he said. "One of the hardest moments of my career was walking off the field at Shea Stadium and saying goodbye. My relationship with you made my time in New York the happiest of my career and for that, I will always be grateful."

Foolishness

I'm gonna mix it up this time and do a little football. This is not because I have nothing to say about baseball (don't get me started), rather it's because I just heard something absolutely maddening on the radio. I'm listening to the Michael Kay show, as I do every day, and I have grown to enjoy this show very much over the past ten months. I don't always agree with what Mr. Kay says, but at least he gives a viable argument and usually doesn't sound like a complete moron. But just now, Michael said something along the lines of (and I paraphrase): "The Jets lost a lot by winning that last game against the Chiefs. If they lost they would have gotten the third pick in the draft and been able to draft a top flight quarterback or running back. Instead, they settled for the 6th pick."

The two players about whom Mr. Kay is speaking are Matt Ryan, quarterback out of Boston College, who was the third pick in the draft by the Atlanta Falcons, and Darren McFadden, running back out of Arkansas, who was the fourth pick in the draft by the Oakland Raiders. I have no doubt that these two players are immensely talented, however, recent history has shown us that quarterbacks and running backs who were drafted early have had records of success which are highly suspect. Those well versed in football will know what I mean when I mention Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Andre Ware, Kijana Carter, Curtis Enis, Tim Couch, David Carr, and Joey Harrington, to name a few. These were all highly touted, and highly drafted college quarterbacks and running backs who never were or have yet to be successful in the NFL. Granted, there are always highly drafted players who do succeed, including Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, etc. but there is much evidence to show that these players have succeeded in large part because of the offensive linemen behind whom they play. Anyway, it certainly seems like drafting a quarterback or a running back with a high pick is risky business indeed. It seems that it is much safer to draft an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman/linebacker, since their skill sets seem to be more easily transferable to the pros.

I'd like to point to the two (arguably) most successful teams in the NFL last year. The New York Giants and the New England Patriots were ranked first and second, respectively, in team sacks (53 and 47). The Patriots were ranked fifth in fewest sacks allowed. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, and Laurence Maroney, were all among the league leaders in yards per carry. All of these point to superb play from the offensive and defensive lines and linebackers from these teams. The Patriots' offensive line allowed Tom Brady to set the record for touchdowns in a season. Granted, you do need an excellent quarterback to accomplish such a task, but even Brady wasn't a high draft pick (199th in 2000). With the outstanding play of the offensive line and the quarterback, the Patriots were able to win every single one of their games in the regular season. The only game they lost was the Super Bowl, in which their offensive line was outplayed by the Giants' defensive line and their linebackers. One would be hard-pressed to show that the Giants won because of their quarterback (19/34, 255 Yds, 2 TDs, 1 Int).

What I'm trying to show is that the Jets did well this off-season. They filled the holes they had and strengthened themselves on their offensive and defensive lines. The signed left guard Alan Faneca, a perennial pro-bowler, to a five-year contract. This will only help their young left tackle, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, to achieve the lofty goals the Jets expected him to reach when they drafted him two seasons ago. Nick Mangold, the Jet center, has proven himself to be an outstanding player, and with the three of them anchoring the offensive line, Kellen Clemens should be given plenty of time to throw the football. He ran into a lot of trouble by having to scramble all the time last season.

The defensive line and linebacking corps received significant upgrades this off-season as well. They obtained nose tackle Kris Jenkins from Carolina, and signed right outside linebacker Calvin Pace. With those two in place, including the newly drafted Vernon Gholston at defensive end, the Jets have an excellent blend of youth and experience on defense. With Jenkins and Pace joining Eric Barton, David Harris, Shaun Ellis, and Bryan Thomas, the Jets should be far better in preventing the run and in attacking the quarterback. In the secondary, Darelle Revis, last year's first round pick, will only get better, and he is joined by Dwight Lowery, whom the Jets drafted in the fourth round. I would venture to say that this team is better now than it would be had it drafted McFadden or Ryan. Remember when everyone laughed at the Houston Texans for drafting Mario Williams ahead of Reggie Bush? Meanwhile, Williams made mincemeat of offensive linemen and quarterbacks alike last season while Bush struggled in his second season.

I would love to hear Michael Kay change his tune this season. But that's still several months away. Meanwhile, it's back to baseball.

Hamavdil Bein Kodesh L'Kodesh

After the post I'll let you all decide if there's some deeper meaning behind the title. It'll be like how people think J.R.R. Tolkien wrote the Lord of the Rings as an allegory of World War II even though he strenuously denies that claim. This is an entirely uninteresting line of discussion; let's just move on.

On Sunday night, for the first time, my family had a Passover seder at my brother's apartment. He makes one every year and invites all of his friends who are around. Now, I mentioned in my anti-Passover rant last year (More Road Rage, April 11th, 2007) that one of the reasons I dislike the holiday is that everyone always spends it with their families so there's very little variety from year to year. Az this year was a little different. My brother started at around 7:00, az I started off over there, went across the street to synagogue, came back for half an hour, went back to synagogue, and then came back to my brother's and caught up to them. Now some of you are probably wondering about a few aspects of the story. For those of you who aren't, I'll supply the questions:

a) Why would my brother have friends who are around? Why wouldn't they be having the seder with their families?
b) Why did they start so early?

Well, most of my brother's friends are not of the Mosaic faith. However, many of them have been going to my brother's seder for several years. He asks that they each bring a bottle of wine (Kosher for Passover of course), and a "dvar torah." By that I mean that they each bring some kind of reading from a newspaper or a book, or something they found online that is somehow related to Passover or freedom. When they reach the point at the seder when each person's reading is appropriate, they read. And six hours later they're done. This absolutely blew my mind. I don't even think I could get my JEWISH friends to have a holiday meal with me for that long, especially if they each had to bring wine and a dvar torah. I find that troublesome. I guess that being observant these past eleven years can maybe desensitize me from the beauty and wonder of Judaism. I have to remember that there's a reason we do all of these rituals and follow all of these rules. Hopefully next year I'll be looking forward to Passover instead of having my usual sense of foreboding. Props all around to my big bro, his wife, and his friends. Best Passover I've had in a long time.

Here's a slightly amusing anecdote from yesterday. I had to e-mail someone at work to get some data from him, so I looked him up in the directory. Let's call him Bloggy McSchmuttface. So I see a Bloggy C. McSchmuttface in there, az I sent him my request. He e-mails me back and says he's the wrong person. I apologized to him, and then about a minute later a get another e-mail from Bloggy McSchmuttface with an attachment, asking me if these are the data I need. Meanwhile, I went to ask my boss how I can contact the real Bloggy McSchmuttface. She finds his e-mail address, and it turns out that his actual name is Curtis B. (Bloggy) McSchmuttface. Great, az I go ahead and send my original request to Curtis. A minute later I get a phone call from Bloggy McSchmuttface telling me that he sent me an e-mail with an attachment, so why am I calling him now? I'm not gonna go through the entire embarrassing discussion where I ask him which Bloggy he is, but to make a long story short, the first Bloggy that I e-mailed ended up forwarding my request to the real Curtis Bloggy, so he's the one who sent me the attachment in the first place. I understand that was a confusing story, but imagine how confusing it must have been for me while it was happening!

I was doing my usual baseball blog reading yesterday when I came across an article that listed all sorts of different statistics that random writers/bloggers/statisticians presented over the years. They all involved some kind of measurement of bases as compared to at-bats, plate appearances, or outs. It turns out that a man named Bill Gilbert came up with a stat called "Bases per Plate Appearance" several years ago. He calculates it differently than I do, but it would still be unkind of me to use his title without showing the proper credit. Now since the purpose of my statistic was to determine if it's worthwhile to always walk any batter in a certain situation, I did not include double plays, stolen bases, and caught stealing in the formula. I will continue to use the same name in any future research, but I just thought I should mention that the name is not exactly original.

Many of you have read in this space about my (mis)adventures in driving. I contantly complain that drivers are too wrapped up in their own selfishness to be courteous to other drivers. A lot of people have told me things like "well if it bothers you so much when people do that stuff, why don't you just do it yourself?" You know, like when everyone is exiting from the right lane, so it's all backed up, and then someone speeds in from the center lane and tries to cut in front of all the cars that waited patiently in the right lane. I've definitely mentioned that before. Another thing I hate is when you're driving southbound on the Harlem River Drive the right lane becomes "exit only" at 135th street, but some people will drive on the shoulder to avoid the inevitable congestion that results from three lanes merging into two. Somehow those people never get caught, but I know that if I ever do it I'll get caught. You know what I mean. Here's one more. When you get off the George Washington Bridge's upper level and exit onto 178th street you can either make a left onto Ft. Washington Avenue or continue straight towards Broadway. You cannot make a right onto Ft. Wash because there is traffic coming off the Henry Hudson Parkway. Similarly, if you are coming off the Henry Hudson Parkway, you can either make a right onto Ft. Wash or continue straight towards Broadway, but you are not allowed to make a left onto Ft. Wash because of the aforementioned traffic coming off the bridge. So last night I was getting off the bridge and an SUV that had come from the highway cut me off and made the illegal left onto Ft. Wash, something I've wanted to do many times. And a cop TOTALLY nailed him! It was awesome! Booyah! He was DONE! He was SO DONE! Now don't think I'm reveling in that person's pain, far from it! What I really gained from that experience was the knowledge that not everyone will get away with screwing other drivers. If you drive selfishly you will inevitably pay for it. I can now sleep soundly knowing that the system, while not perfect, works.

More Odds and Ends (Even Odder, Still No End)

So someone suggested that I put labels on my posts so that my readers would be able to read (read: ignore) posts at their leisure. For example, this post would be labeled "baseball," az most of you would choose to ignore it. Go ahead; see if I care.

Yesterday, Alex Rodriguez hit the 521st home run of his career. He is now tied for 15th on the all time list with Willie McCovey and Ted Williams. The next two players he's set to pass are Jimmie Foxx (534 HR) and Mickey Mantle (536 HR). Meanwhile, Greg Maddux of the San Diego Padres has 349 victories on the mound. Among the people he should pass over the next year or two are Roger Clemens (354 Wins), and Hall of Famers Kid Nichols and Pud Galvin (364 Wins), Warren Spahn (363 Wins), and Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson (373 Wins). The A-Rod stuff seems closer to home because we've watched a lot of the players near him play. Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas (and technically Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds) are still active, and we all got to watch Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. Even Mike Schmidt and Reggie Jackson are still recent enough that many of us watched them play or at least saw a lot of their highlights. But still, when we're talking about a guy who's passing some of the all time greats like Jimmie Foxx and Mickey Mantle, you know we're dealing with something special. I mean those guys don't even seem real to me; Williams, Mantle, and Foxx are just legends, stories grandparents tell the kids before bedtime about how things were in the old days. And in this day and age, with pitchers getting far fewer opportunities to win games, it's especially jarring to see the names that Maddux is going to pass. Pud Galvin and Kid Nichols are not real people; Warren Spahn is not a real person; Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson are about as far from real as you can get. Some of these guys were alive around the time of the Civil War. They pitched over 100 years ago. We might as well be talking about people like Robin Hood and King Arthur. The fact that a pitcher today has a chance to pass Christy Mathewson on the all time victory list boggles my mind to no end. I implore you, all you non-baseball fans out there, try to find time to watch Greg Maddux pitch. Even at his advanced age, he's one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball. Watch the way his four-seam fastball tails away from lefties. I know that some day I'm going to tell my children that I watched Greg Maddux pitch live, and if I have my way they will be suitably impressed.

Okay, now it's time to get started on my new statistical fetish. I discussed baseball with my brother over the weekend, and we talked a lot about Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage, so I was in the mood go back to my bases per plate appearance research, even though I don't have platoon split data. Anyway, here's how I figure Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA): I take a players total bases (Singles + 2x Doubles + 3x Triples + 4x Home Runs), and add walks. Then I divide all that by Plate Appearances (At-bats + Walks + Hit by Pitch + Sacrifice bunts + Sacrifice Flies). The reason I use Plate Appearances instead of At-bats is that I'm trying to determine how much a player is worth each time he comes to the plate. It's for the same reason that I add Walks to Total Bases. Finally, the reason I included Sacrifice Bunts into Plate Appearances is that most sluggers don't ever bunt, so it wouldn't hurt their stats, and most players who would be high on the BPA list who would have a number of sacrifices are often "credited" with sacrifices even when they're bunting for hits, az this penalizes them. I calculated the BPA for all players with 100 or more plate appearances in 2007, and here are some notable findings:

- Barry Bonds had the highest BPA overall at .679. He accrued that over just 477 plate appearances, but still. He should definitely get signed pretty soon.
- The player with the highest BPA among those who qualified for the batting title (502 PA) was David Ortiz at .678 over 667 plate appearances. And a lot of analysts said he had a down year last year because he "only" had 35 homers and 117 RBI. Hey, remember how he also had 52 doubles?!
- Would you believe that Carlos Pena (.670) had a higher BPA than Alex Rodriguez (.665)? A-Rod had more total bases because he had 96 more plate appearances, but man! At-bat for At-bat, Pena was as productive a player as there was in all of baseball last year.
- Jimmy Rollins, the NL MVP comes in at 46th with a .551 BPA. He was beaten out by Chase Utley (.571), Pat Burrell (.587), and Ryan Howard (.642), three players on his own team (!).
- Jason Kendall had the lowest BPA of those who qualified for the batting title, .340 over 514 plate appearances (Nick Punto was right above him at .341).

Another thing my brother and I discussed regarding Slugging Percentage was triples (and inside-the-park home runs). He asserted that triples shouldn't count for SLG, because generally it's not the "sluggers" who are hitting them. Guys like Curtis Granderson, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Carl Crawford can really run, and it's for that reason that they compile a bunch of triples. Otherwise, the only times that players get triples or inside-the-park homers are when fielders screw up but don't get errors, or the ball takes a weird bounce. Here's an idea I had that might reconcile this problem: John Dewan has a plus/minus system for evaluating fielding. For every play that fielder makes/does not make, he assigns a number. If he makes a play that the average fielder would make then he gets zero points. If he botches a play that the average fielder makes then he loses a point. If he makes a play that the average fielder would not make then he gets a point. Simple. The best fielders at each position generally finish the season at around +20; think Adam Everett, Pedro Feliz, Grady Sizemore, Albert Pujols. The worst generally finish around -15; think Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Adam Dunn, Miguel Cabrera. So I think we can apply this system to extra-base hits. If a player hits a ball that would normall go for a double, then he loses a point if he only gets a single, gets zero points if he gets to second base, and gains a point if he makes it a triple. So if we could keep track of this plus/minus number for each player, we could see how many extra-bases a player takes over the average player.

I was reading an article on the subway this morning, and the writer submitted that it would be advantageous if the Cincinnati Reds could combine the offense of Javier Valentin and the defense of their backup catchers. That got me thinking; may the Designated Hitter in the American League only replace the pitcher in the batting order? Wouldn't it be terrific if a team had a tremendous hitting pitcher (think Micah Owings, Mike Hampton, Carlos Zambrano, Dontrelle Willis), and a fielder who has no bat but plays maniacally good defense? That way you could have the pitcher bat for himself and have the DH replace one of the fielders. Az I went ahead and looked up the DH rules on mlb.com, and here are a few interesting things I found:

- Any league may elect to use the DH rule. So the NL could adopt the DH without having to change league rules.
- It's mandatory for a team to designate a hitter for the pitcher. If the team does not do so, they cannot use a DH for the remainder of the game.
- The DH spot in the lineup cannot move during the game. If the starting DH is batting 4th, then no matter how many times the DH has a pinch-hitter (or pinch-runner), his spot in the order stays at 4th.
- If a player enters the game as a pinch-hitter and then takes the mound, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game. If the pitcher bats at any time, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game. Furthermore, if the pitcher bats he can ONLY replace the DH in the order.
- If the DH goes out to play the field, the DH spot is terminated for the remainder of the game.

So it appears that my idea of DHing a fielder is not allowed. I should tell that to Mr. Dulny so he can retroactively give me the at-bats he owes me from 11th grade. Hameivin yavin.

Couple of Odds and Ends (Mostly Odd, Never End)

I went to my first ball game of the year last night and I had a few observations. Firstly, Citi Field is GORGEOUS! They did a ton of work on it during the off-season, and from the outside it looks ready to go. My friend and I briefly flirted with the hilarity that would ensue if Ryan Howard hit Citi Field with a home run and the entire thing came crashing down. Anyway, we've got 78 (plus playoffs) more chances to experience Shea Stadium in all its blueness, az take advantage while you can.

Another thing I noticed as the game plowed its way into extra innings is that the Mets did not exploit their platoon advantage during the game at all. There were so many times when the Mets best hitters had the advantage over the Phillie pitcher: Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, and Church against Adam Eaton (?), Beltran and Delgado in big spots against 90 year old Rudy Seanez (?), etc. That got me thinking today about which type of batter had the most extreme platoon splits. I always thought it was left-handed hitters, which is why I was so surprised when Seanez got the better of Delgado and Beltran. So I hit the stats. I found three league average hitters (100 OPS+) for their careers, and checked their platoon splits to get an idea of the average hitter splits. I list the percent difference between their platoon splits in Batting Average / On Base Percentage / Slugging Percentage, assuming that they hit better against pitchers of opposite handedness. Here's what I found:

Righties:
Rich Aurilia: 1.818 / 3.364 / 16.986
Hubie Brooks: 11.923 / 14.618 / 18.586
Eric Byrnes: 13.672 / 10.345 / 20.991

Lefties:
Doug Mientkiewicz: 1.873 / 0 / -2.415
B.J. Surhoff: -2.439 / -.300 / .730
Mark Kotsay: .356 / 3.030 / 2.200

Now, granted this isn't the most thorough research I've ever done, but until I can get the historical splits in spreadsheet format, I won't be able to do much. Anyway, it appears that I was incorrect. Righties tend to have a larger disparity in their success against pitchers of different handedness while lefties tend to be around the same or even have reverse splits. This is likely due to small sample size, because lefties (which are rare to begin with) have relatively few plate appearances against other lefties (still rare). In that case, the Mets righties should have handled the left-handed J.C. Romero last night and prevented the game from going to extras. Silly Mets.

I was watching highlights of the first game of the NHL playoffs, pairing the New York Rangers and the New Jersey Devils. In the third period, Sean Avery of the Rangers scored on Martin Brodeur, the Devils' goalkeeper, to give the Rangers a 3-1 lead. Few times have I ever seen an athlete so excited as Avery was at that moment; I mean he was going absolutely bonkers. I love it when the players go nuts. Here they are, making millions of dollars, and at that split-second in time they couldn't care less. These moments remind us of what sports are really about. The moment I remember most was from a Mets game on June 30th, 2000. I remember reading about the game in the morning because it was on a Friday night, and I didn't end up seeing highlights until after Shabbos. The Mets were losing to the Atlanta Braves (gosh I hated them in those days) 8-1 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Here's how the inning played out:

Don Wengert on the mound.
Derek Bell singles to center (man on 1st).
Edgardo Alfonzo flies out to center (1 out, man on 1st).
Mike Piazza reaches on an infield single to 3rd, error on the 3rd baseman, runners advance (1 out, men on 2nd and 3rd).
Robin Ventura grounds out to second, Bell scores, Piazza advances to 3rd (2 out, man on 3rd, 8-2).
Todd Zeile singles to left-center, Piazza scores (2 out, man on 1st, 8-3).
Jay Payton singles to right (2 out, men on 1st and 2nd, 8-3).
Kerry Ligtenberg on the mound.
Benny Agbayani walks (2 out, bases loaded, 8-3).
Mark Johnson walks, Zeile scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-4).
Melvin Mora walks, Payton scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-5).
Terry Mulholland on the mound. Joe McEwing pinch-runs for Mark Johnson
Derek Bell walks, Benny Agbayani scores (2 out, bases loaded, 8-6).
Edgardo Alfonzo singles to left, McEwing scores, Mora scores (2 out, men on 1st and 2nd, 8-8).
Mike Piazza homers, Bell scores, Alfonzo scores, Piazza scores (2 out, 11-8).
Robin Ventura grounds out to 2nd (3 out, 11-8).

Armando Benitez sneaks his way through a nail-biting 9th inning, but for all intents and purposes the game was over with Piazza's home run. I remember watching the highlights and seeing the fans by the first base line going absolutely berserk. Piazza is running towards first base and when his batted ball clears the fence he pumps his right fist in boyish glee. Here's a guy who's making $90 million and he's going ballistic because he hit a ball over a fence during a game in June. These are the moments that we wait for as fans; when the players and we who support them are joined k'ish echad b'lev echad, as one person with one heart. Yeah, sure, stats and spreadsheets are a ton of fun, but there sure is some exciting stuff happening on the field of play.

The Way It Should Be Done

I was surprised not once, but twice yesterday. Now, it's a problem to begin with that I was surprised, because the things that surprised me should not be surprising; they should be expected.

I called Time Warner on Friday (this is the point where everyone thinks "I know where this is going." I mean, is there any other company that is so universally hated than Time Warner? Two friends, who happen to work for Time, were in my new apartment last night, and they totally agreed. One of them said something like "whenever they come to do service I always ask them if I can get free cable, and the guy always responds by asking if he can get free magazines." Anyway, I don't know ANYONE who has good things to say about their service. Which, incidentally is why I was so surprised) to schedule a service appointment so they could install cable in my new apartment. Az they came on Tuesday, but since my enormous television was still in my old apartment I had to ask a friend to bring his small TV over just to make sure the cable worked. So when we finally moved the TV in yesterday, we should have been all set. But lo and behold, the picture was black and white. I called them up, and the service guy was polite, courteous, and extremely helpful (his English wasn't too bad either). He solved the problem in no time and we were good to go. Again, this is the kind of thing one should expect from a company like Time Warner. At least for one day I was pleased with them.

The other surprise requires a bit of backstory. Some time over the summer I was on the john, and I was reading a newspaper article about a baseball equipment company that uses interesting technology in their products. Most baseball gloves look the same, but Akadema explores different ways of shaping them. For full details, check out their website: http://www.akademapro.com/. Anyway, since the average life of a Schmutter softball glove is around 13 years, the time came to get a new one. Just as an aside, there are few things more precious to a guy than his glove; no guy wants to get a new one. A guy knows every nook and cranny of his glove, almost as if it's been attached to his hand for his whole life. A guy would rather repair his glove every inning than have to buy a new one, but there comes a point when you just have to bite the bullet.

Az I went to the website and wrote down which gloves I was interested in seeing, and on the website they have links to sporting goods stores that carry their products. I'm about to make fun of every girl I know, so just beware: a baseball glove is like a pair of shoes; you don't want to buy one until you've tried it on and made sure it's comfortable. So I went to Sports Authority to try on some of the Akadema gloves, but they didn't have any. I asked one of the salesmen if they had, and they said that some things they only have for sale on the website. Bummer. Az yesterday, I went back to the Akadema website, got their phone number, and called them up. I told them I wanted to try on some gloves but couldn't find any in the stores, so the gentlemen told me I could come to their showroom at their headquarters in Hawthorne, NJ (just as a frame of reference, it's basically the next town over from Fair Lawn). So after work I drove out to Hawthorne, and I must have passed by their place three times before I found it. I was expecting some kind of fancy sporting goods store, but it looked just like an office. There were signs that said "For Academy, go around back," so I assumed the front of the office was owned by another company who didn't know how to spell "Akadema," so I went around back. I heard some people hitting softballs in a batting cage, az I knew I was in the right place. I walked through the batting cage area, presumably to where the showroom was, and a gentleman stopped me and asked me where I was going. I told him, and he said "there is no showroom. Wait, you're here for Akadema right?" I nodded. "Go back around to the front." I did. I walked into the front door, and it looked almost like a doctor's waiting room. There were a couple of chairs and a small window, behind which a man was sitting. Now I was feeling pretty foolish for driving all the way out there to some office in some no-name town in Jersey. I was all prepared to be upset at them for feeding my wrong information over the phone, etc. Az I sheepishly told the man why I was there, and he said that they're still building the showroom, but he'd be happy to have one of the workers show me some of their products. Excellent. I went inside and a young man named Kevin brought me a catalogue and asked me to show him which gloves I wanted to see. I told him I'm an infielder, I like a closed back, and I wanted a slightly longer glove. He gave me one and said that was the one I wanted. Az I wrote down the model and told him that I would buy it on the website (I noticed the gloves were $5 cheaper on the Sports Authority website), but he said he would give me a discount. Outstanding. Then I asked him if I could have a discount on batting gloves too, and he said "of course." Basically, I walked out of there with a catalogue ($3 value), a free cap (probably no more than a $3 value; the thing looks like a trucker hat made for a sever year old), a new softball glove ($105 value), and a pair of sheepskin batting gloves ($35 value), for a sum total of $100. It was a thoroughly pleasant shopping experience. I told Kevin he was a terrific salesman and he just acquired a customer for life. I was so pleased that I didn't even care about sitting in GWB traffic on the way home.

Just a couple of other noteworthy occurences at the Akadema headquarters. Kevin showed me the custom mitt they made for Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox Left Fielder, az that was pretty cool. Also, while I was there, they received a call from Jose Offerman, a former player, who wanted to know when his glove would be ready.

Anyway, when I got back home, I ended off the day by lounging on my couch (which was successfully moved into our new place. Thanks guys) in front of the TV (which was also successfully moved into our new place. Thanks a ton guys) and watching the Mets slaughter the Marlins 13-0. It was really a lovely day.

My Favorite Things

Man, it's been a while. The reason I haven't posted anything recently is that I've got two big posts in the works. One of them is a product of a brainstorm I had with my brother regarding my previous post about Ryan Braun. After transforming Braun into a superhero, it was determined that his slugging percentage against lefties in Coors Field ca. 2000 CE (Okay, here we go. So you know how people of the Christian faith count the years starting from roughly the year of Jesus's birth (give or take 3 or 4)? Well, those peoples who do not believe in Jesus as the Lord are loathe to append the acronym "AD" to these years, "AD" standing for "Anno Domini," The Year of Our Lord (Jesus). However, we of the Mosaic faith struggle daily to be part of the modern world, and going around saying that it's 5768 would make us look like raving zealots. So instead we append "BCE" and "CE" to the Christian year to stand for "(Before the) Common Era." Now, I don't think this has quite the same ring as "Anno Domini," so I suggest using the latin translation of "Common Era." Presenting my next idiotic contribution to the world, "Communis Aetas." ) exceeded 1.000. Another words, the average at-bat for Braun under those circumstances produced a little more than a single. My assertion is that it would make more sense to intentionally walk Braun every single time he comes to the plate under those circumstances, thereby assuring that Braun only gets one base (and can't advance any other base runners more than one base). Now, in an effort to expand this analysis, I attempted to download a spreadsheet with player platoon splits from 2007 (a platoon split is a player's statistics against pitchers of different handedness). Sadly, this data was not available to me online, so I had to send an e-mail out to my good friend Joe Sheehan at baseballprospectus.com. He hasn't gotten back to me yet, but I'm still hopeful. Anyway, once I get the data you can expect a big post. Who's excited?

The second post is the reason for the title of this one. Many of you might know of the handful of items that make it onto my list of favorite things. The list is currently populated by 4 things:

1. Binoculars: Is there anything they can't do? They are so versatile. For an astronomy enthusiast such as myself, they can be used for a bit of amateur star-gazing. Needless to say, binoculars appeal to the pervert in all of us. Honestly, how many times have you been walking around or sitting somewhere and you wished you had a pair of binoculars with you? I rest my case.

2. Juice Boxes: Come on, what reminds you of your childhood more than juice boxes? This is the real reason why I give blood; they always have juice boxes on the table o' food afterwards. Is there a more quality item than the plastic bendy straw that comes attached to the juice box? And remember those Richard Lewis commercials for BoKu, the "adult" juice box? If that's not a ringing endorsement of a product then I don't know what is.

3. Trampolines: Can you envision a scenario in which you are not smiling or laughing on a trampoline? I mean you might as well rename the trampoline "the happy machine," because it's impossible to not have fun on one. It's like the parfait discussion that Donkey has with himself in the first Shrek movie; just replace every instance of the word "parfait" with trampoline (and add in an article or two and change some verbs): "You know what else everybody likes? Trampolines. Have you ever met a person, you say, 'Let's try that trampoline,' they say, 'No, I don't like trampolines?' "

4. Crayons: Writing implements made out of wax. Brilliant. Clean. Colorful. Perfect. If I could write in crayon while maintaining my unblemished record of moral and professional integrity, sign me up. If I had to draw a picture of my childood, I would take a bunch of crayons and draw a juice box happily sitting next to a box of 64 Crayola crayons. You know, the one with the crayon sharpener in the back.

Now, I recently got into a discussion with a friend about the relative merits of crayons over markers or vice versa. The pressure to co-author a post detailing this comparison proved to be too much for her, but she has agreed to offer her input, so for that I thank her.

Stay tuned for these exciting posts and more.

New Line of Work

Since I'm bored at work today, and since I'm somewhat on the prowl for a new job, I thought I'd explore my talents in other areas. Today I'm going to try my hand at wizardry. For my first trick, I'm going to take your average, everyday Rookie of the Year, and transform him into Babe Ruth before your very eyes. Now the reason I chose to use Ryan Braun for my magic trick is because Baseball Prospectus looked at his splits from last season. I didn't even realize until I read the article how much he destroyed left-handed pitchers. So one thing led to another, and before I knew it, I had filled a spreadsheet with data. Now, the calculations I did would have looked even more insane had I done my Ruthian transformation on Babe Ruth himself... okay, I'll get to that in a minute. Meanwhile, check out how I changed the Hebrew Hammer (or as BP calls him, the Scourge of Southpaws) into the Sultan of Swat:

First I looked at his splits from last season:
Against RHP: 364 PA, .282 BA, .319 OBP, .526 SLG, .845 OPS, 19 HR, 18 2B, 4 3B, 62 RBI
Against LHP: 128 PA, .450 BA, .516 OBP, .964 SLG, 1.480 OPS, 15 HR, 8 2B, 2 3B, 35 RBI

Those numbers against lefties raised a few eyebrows. Then I decided to have some fun. I did the same thing with Ryan Church in a previous post ("Church v. Hunter," from November 30, 2007); I expanded his numbers against lefties to the full season. Last year, Ryan Braun had 492 plate appearances. Here's how they would have looked if they were all against lefties:

492 PA, .450 BA, .516 OBP, .964 SLG, 1.480 OPS, 192 Hits, 58 HR, 31 2B, 8 3B, 135 RBI

That would probably be the greatest offensive season of all time. Now, let's have some real fun. Baseball-Reference has a tool that allows you to see how a player would perform under different circumstances. The two free options are to see the stats were the player to play in an extreme pitcher-friendly environment, Dodger Stadium in 1968, or in an extreme hitter-friendly environment, Coors Field in 2000. Here's how Braun's 2007 would have looked had he played all 113 of his games at Coors in 2000:

481 AB, .366 BA, .414 OBP, .715 SLG, 1.129 OPS, 176 Hits, 31 2B, 7 3B, 41 HR, 128 RBI.

That looks like an MVP season to me. But wait, there's a lot more. What would happen if those stats were expanded to a full 162 game season:

689 AB, .366/.414/.715/1.129, 252 Hits, 59 HR, 44 2B, 10 3B, 184 RBI.

Again, that would be one of the best seasons of all time, among the top three seasons of hits, extra-base hits, total bases, and RBI.

Finally, let's complete the transformation and look at Braun's stats in 2000 at Coors Field were he to have every one of those at-bats against lefties:

689 AB, .509 BA, .577 OBP, 1.087 SLG, 1.665 OPS, 351 Hits, 107 HR, 54 2B, 13 3B, 272 RBI.

Tada!!! Wow. That's actually double what a fairly normal MVP season would be. That was a lot of fun.

I would LOVE to do the same thing for Babe Ruth, but unfortunately baseball-reference.com doesn't have splits that go back that far. But in case you were curious, I'll put his stats from his best seasons and for his career were they all to take place at Coors in 2000:

1921: 601 AB, .408 BA, .544 OBP, .913 SLG, 1.457 OPS, 245 Hits, 71 HR, 53 2B, 19 3B, 217 RBI
1927: 605 AB, .398 BA, .532 OBP, .863 SLG, 1.395 OPS, 241 Hits, 75 HR, 36 2B, 10 3B, 225 RBI
Career: 9608 AB, .386 BA, .521 OBP, .776 SLG, 1.297 OPS, 3712 Hits, 908 HR, 662 2B, 181 3B, 3133 RBI.

Terrifying.

The More Things Change... (aka That Guy Redux)

Remember one of my very first posts entitled "That Guy?" Well, it's very short az I'll just paste it here for your reading pleasure:

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

That Guy
So, you know how sometimes people say things like, "Don't be that guy!" Well, I was just "that guy." I was paying to go over the George Washington Bridge, and I gave the nice lady $6. I then sat there for about 30 seconds waiting for change. "Schmutter, don't be that guy." I've spent a good portion of my life trying to NOT be that guy, but I was tonight. I feel like I've failed some of you out there. Next time you see me, flick my ear.
end

Anyway, I was That Guy again last night. Let's start at the beginning. I went to a book signing at the Barnes & Noble on 18th Street and 5th Avenue last night. Four of the Baseball Prospectus guys came to sign and speak about their new annual Baseball Prospectus 2008. I especially excited to meet Joe Sheehan because I like his work on baseballanalysts.com in addition to his regular work on Baseball Prospectus. Anyway, they were pretty much just normal guys. Joe was the balding funny guy; Jay Jaffe and Steven Goldman reminded me of the Jeff Goldblum and Wayne Knight characters from Jurassic Park; and Derek Jacques was like a slightly flamboyant, Indian college professor. They were terrific. Az the 40 or 50 of us are hanging out, talking baseball for almost two hours, and then we went up to get our books signed. So while Joe is signing my book I tell him that I like his work on baseballanalysts.com a lot. So he says "that's a different Joe Sheehan. I've read some of his stuff and he's way smarter than I am." Now I feel like an idiot, so I try to salvage my dignity by trying to be funny. "Oh man! I can't believe I was just That Guy! I guess it's alright; you probably get it all the time," I said. His reply: "nope, this was the first time." Now I'm horrified: "I'm the ORIGINAL That Guy?! Ohmygod!" It wasn't very pretty. As I said in my old post, I've spent most of my life trying to avoid being that guy. The tolls on the bridge might have changed, but clearly I haven't very much. Anyway, there's still some small part of me that's hoping that Joe really is the same guy and he just has an alter-ego. Aside from that it was a very pleasant experience.

I started reading Baseball Prospectus 2008, and this morning on the subway I had a bit of a brainstorm. In the book, they make a big deal out of platoon splits, the disparity in how players perform against lefties and righties. For those who don't know, right handed hitters generally do better against left handed pitchers and vice versa. The disparity is very pronounced for left-handed batters. It's for this reason that switch-hitters are highly valuable in baseball today. Now, there have been only a handful of pitchers who pitched with both hands; baseball-reference.com lists only six, and only one in the last 99 years. But what if aspiring hurlers trained themselves to be able to pitch from both sides? That would potentially eliminate the hitters' platoon advantage. Then I started thinking what would happen if a switch-pitcher faced a switch-hitter? Would they both keep switching their positions in the batter's box/pitching rubber until the umpire forced the pitcher to throw? Can you imagine how comical it would be to watch the pitcher and the hitter dance around trying to get the advantage? I envision a lot of balks (illegal activity by the pitcher. See the Wikipedia entry for all examples). Anyway, it probably won't happen, but I thought it was a fun brainstorm.

Recap

Well, it's been quite an interesting journey these last few days. There were many highlights:

I went to dinner on Sunday night with my parents, my brother, and his wife and baby. Aside from the fact that I had the biggest steak of my life (I'm still digesting it 38 hours later), there was one moment that went largely unnoticed. We were sitting around the table and my brother said something like "Noah, of course I love you unconditionally because you're my brother, but aside from that I really do like you; you're a good person." It was entirely unnecessary, didn't need to take place, but it was not unappreciated. Thank you. You are a big part of what I am today.

I saw many of you last night at dinner. I'm sure it was difficult for some of you to make it out on a weeknight at that hour, so thank you all for coming. I was overwhelmed, even humbled, and that is a rare thing. Sometimes I'll walk out of a packed synagogue on Friday night and someone will say "big crowd this shabbos; it's a little overwhelming," and usually I'll say something like "I thought it was underwhelming." Mobs of people hanging out at Post-Davening-Mt. Sinai-Sponsored-Schmoozing-Time doesn't really impress me that much. In fact, I tend to thrive on those situations. But last night was a different animal altogether. After most of the people had left I was pacing around the back of the restaurant feeling exhausted but wired. I couldn't sit down because I was so fidgety. One of my friends commented that she had never seen me like that before. I don't know what that feeling was, or what it continues to be, but I imagine it can't be bad. So for all of you who participated in my birthday, thank you for making it my best one ever.

For those of you who read my post yesterday and expressed their concern, I think the events of the last few days should put those worries to rest. I don't even know why anyone was concerned in the first place; that story took place EIGHT YEARS ago! I think the reason why I reacted so strongly that night was that it was a time of transition for me. Until that summer I was an awkward, nerdy, goody two-shoes (still am). After that summer I was more self-confident, sophisticated, funny, etc. I guess I expected for people to have a newfound respect for me, but apparently you can't earn that sort of thing in only a few months. Either way, most of the people from high school, as I realized later on, weren't really the kind of people whose respect I needed, at least at that point. I should have realized that the 10-15 close friends I had were more than enough. I would take their friendship over the respect of my 85 other classmates every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Needless to say, anyone who knows me now will agree that I can confidently assert that I'm quite well adjusted, so don't worry. Anyway, I was told that I should put a warning on top if I'm ever going to write something sad, so I'll be sure to do that in the future.

My brother called me up yesterday, presumably to tell me where my car was (he had to borrow it for work). But he also informed me that today is National Grammar Day. I was SO excited. In honor of National Grammar Day, I leave you with some grammatically complex sentences. Enjoy:

1. The problem is, is he can't do it.
2. I don't know what you're talking about.
3. Someone forgot their shoes.
4. ...to boldly go where no man has gone before.
5. Who is it? It is I.

Birthday Blog

Okay, let's just get it over with. It's my birthday. Yay. I guess I couldn't really call it a coincidence, but today is merely the time when the Earth happens to be in the exact same location in its journey around the sun as it was on the day I was born. Otherwise it's just an ordinary day. Don't take that to mean that I don't appreciate all the birthday wishes I've received. Keep them coming! Just to let you know how much I appreciate them and I guess to let some of you inside my head, I want to share a very personal story:

In 11th grade, Ramaz took all of us on "Junior Retreat," a weekend getaway, which was designed to strengthen the bonds of our friendship before we began to seek our own fortunes out in the real world. They had a ropes course, various sporting events, and a beautiful Shabbat planned. I remember an awesome game of tackle football that we played in the snow. I remember my friend breaking his knee on a tackle and then intercepting the very next pass and returning it for a touchdown. There were some great times.
After Shabbos, some students prepared a slide-show, which had pictures of us from school. You know, there were pictures of us talking, and hanging out, maybe doing funny things, etc. And as we were all watching the show, we would applaud for the people in each picture to varying degrees. Out of the 100 or so pictures, there might have been one or two of me, and to my chagrin, I received very little applause. Now don't get me wrong, I have great friends from high school, and we're all still close, but I was really sad that I hadn't had enough of an effect on the rest of my class throughout the years to garner more than a few claps.
After the event, before we went to bed, I laid out on the grass outside of our bunk. It was cold and beautiful outside; the sky was cloudless and I could see a million stars. And on that night I cried. I wept uncontrollably for what seemed like forever. I cried to G-d, and I cried to my mother, and I'm crying now just remembering it. Here I am, sitting at my desk, and I'm crying. For every birthday wish I received last night and so far today, I shed a tear to erase the ones from that moment on that empty field. I know that no matter what I might have felt on that cold December night, I have friends today who care about me. So again, from the bottom of my heart, I thank you for your wishes.

Just as an aside, no fewer than three people told me this weekend that they missed me over Shabbos. They said it felt strange when they looked over to my seat in synagogue and didn't see me there. That meant a lot to me too. Look how far I've come.

Okay, so you ever hear that math problem that asks how many people you need in a room to have a reasonable chance of two of them having the same birthday? Well, most people seem shocked that the answer is only 23. In case anyone is interested, here's how it's done:

First, understand that the easiest way to determine the probability of two people having the same birthday in a room of N people, is to figure out the probability of everyone having a different birthday and then subtracting that probability from 100%, okay? It should make sense that there are two options: a) everyone has a different birthday, or b) some people have the same birthday. The probability of one plus the probability of the other equals 100%. Great.

The probability of the only two people in the room having different birthdays is (1-(1/365)). Very high. The probability of all three people in the room having the different birthdays is (1-(1/365)) x (1-(2/365)). You might see a pattern developing. The general formula for the probability of all N people in the room having a different birthday (assuming there are fewer than 365 people in the room) is: 365! / ((365^N)(365-N))!

The exclamation point is the symbol for the "factorial" function, which means you multiply the number by each integer below it until you get to one (ex: 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120)

Great, so the probability of any of N people in a room having the SAME birthday comes out to 1 - (365! / ((365^N)(365-N))!). Now all you have to do is plug in your number for N, the amount of people in the room. For N = 23, the probability is about 50.7%. Just for argument's sake, if you have 100 people in a room, the probability that two people have the same birthday is around 99.99996%.

Excellent! Now, in case you were curious, if you wanted to figure out the probability of someone having the same birthday as you, that's a different problem. That's the same thing as asking what's the probability of two people having a specific birthday, whereas the previous problem doesn't care about which date the people share. The formula for the probability of someone in a room of N people having the same birthday as you is: 1 - ((365-1)/365)^N. In order for there to be a greater than 50% chance of someone having the same birthday as you, there needs to be 253 other people in the room.

Okay, that's the end of today's math lesson (thanks to wikipedia for all the info).

I went on facebook last night to check out the myriad wall posts I received, and I noticed that on the top of the page it has a little birthday box. It says something like "Happy Birthday, Noah! From all of us on The Facebook Team, have a great day!" You know what? That's really nice. It's unnecessary and quite meaningless, but still.

Since I absolutely could not fall asleep last night, I found myself watching last year's World Series of Poker on ESPN2 at about 1:30 am. At that hour you see the most random commercials. One of them was for a TimeLife series of CDs called "I Can Only Imagine." It's a collection of 22 Christian faith songs. The first thing I thought was that was the most ridiculous thing I had ever seen (one of the songs was actually called "Kel Shakkai," except with the real words, without the "K" and "dd" instead of "kk"), except then I realized that I basically listen to the exact same kind of music only in Hebrew. I can only imagine what people think of my taste in music.

I went to KJ for Seudah Shlishit, and they had a presentation of several Ramaz students who had gone to York, Pennsylvania for a few days to volunteer for a project called Habitat for Humanity, in which they helped other volunteers build houses for people who lost theirs for varying reasons. It was really quite nice. But the part I found noteworthy was that the students had become friends with the local Chabad Rabbi on facebook. It's ridiculous how far facebook has extended its grasp. Facebook is insane as it is right now, but can you imagine what it will be like for those high school students by the time they're our age?

Okay, I'm done. Wait, you know how when you go to a wedding or an engagement party you wish everyone there a Mazal Tov? I don't mean just to the bride and groom, but to everyone you see. What do you do at a birthday party? I think I'm gonna go ahead and wish everyone a Happy Birthday today, and I will continue to do so at other birthday parties. Az Happy Birthday everyone.

Random Baseball Jazz

I'm listening to the Max Kellerman show on 1050 ESPN Radio, and one thing he likes to do is these live commercials. He does live commercials for Dr. Modell's laser eye surgery, and for Car-cash, and a few other things. Recently he started doing one for this baseball drills video for kids. And each time he says something like "this product is so effective because it turns those boring old drills into a game, and it's the game that kids love, not the drills." Normally, Max, I agree with you, but not in this case. I think baseball drills are TONS of fun. What could possibly be boring about batting practice, or shagging fly balls? Even practicing turning a run-down or a double play is fun. I dunno, maybe I just love baseball that much.

My brother sent me an interesting tidbit this morning. He directed me to a game pitched by Rick Wise on June 23rd, 1971, in which he threw a no-hitter and hit two home runs. That got me thinking about the greatest individual performances by a baseball player in a single game. I could only come up with two other examples, so I'll show them here. I want you all to vote on what you think is the best of the three performances. Enjoy:

Rick Wise: 6/23/1971: 2 for 4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (1 solo, 1 2-run), 8 TB, 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks, 0 HR, 0.11 WHIP, 89 Game Score, 0.00 ERA, Win.

Tony Cloninger: 7/3/1966: 3 for 5, 2 R, 9 RBI, 2 HR (2 grand slams), 9 TB, 9 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 Ks, 2 HR, 1.00 WHIP, 64 Game Score, 3.00 ERA, Win.

Micah Owings: 8/18/2007: 4 for 5, 4 R, 6 RBI, 2 HR (1 solo, 1 2-run), 11 TB, 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 Ks, 3 HR, 0.43 WHIP, 66 Game Score, 3.86 ERA, Win.

I like Tony, but pitchers were better hitters back then.

I Can't Say It Any Better

I guess I've done some of this before, but never on such a magnitude. I'm actually going to paste an entire article from firejoemorgan.com. They say everything that needs to be said. I would be oveir on bal tosif were I to add anything to it. I'm gonna try to get away with this being my own post only because it seems like I will have access to the baseballprospectus.com PECOTA projections, which I will use to add into my Mets preview, so I'm gonna be working on that. Enjoy the article (bold is quoted from the New York Post, and regular is firejoemorgan. Beware a few swear words. Apologies in advance to you REAL Yankee fans):

This Is What We're Up Against

Sure, sometimes it seems like we've said everything there is to be said about EqA and VORP and why batting average and wins are for stupids. We're repetitive, redundant, reiterative, repetitious, redundant, redundant and redundant. We get it.
Then we take a step back and remember that 99.999992% of baseball fans think like the people in this article:

YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING! STUDY SAYS DEREK JETER'S THE WORST

No, nobody is kidding. This is old news, of course, to the other 0.000008% of us.

February 17, 2008 -- How's this for junk science - even with three Gold Gloves, Yankees captain Derek Jeter has been labeled the worst fielding shortstop in baseball.

I'm so happy the New York Post is out there doing its thing -- being angrily, outrageously, passionately wrong about everything. Rare is the institution you can rely on day in and day out, but you can set your watch by the Post. Whatever time the Post says, you're guaranteed to know: it's wrong. Gold Gloves are a m.-fucking joke. Although I've learned nothing yet about this junky "science" study and of course I will learn nothing further by reading the rest of the article (thank you, Post!), I already trust it infinitely more than Gold Gloves, because Gold Gloves are liars. They are no-good cheating liars, and I would not let my fictional daughter marry a Gold Glove.

But the numbers prove it, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania said yesterday at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, in (of course) Boston.

Yes, these researchers from the University of Pennsylvania meticulously altered their data, fudged everything they'd worked on for months, slandered Jeter and praised A-Rod, all because they had a meeting once in Boston. Never trust a scientist! All scientists are Sox fans! Post! Post BREAKING NEWS: SCIENCE PLAYS FOR BOSTON!

Using a complex statistical method,

for nerds with calculators and pocket protectors and Daily News subscriptions,

researchers concluded that Alex Rodriguez was one of the best shortstops in the game when he played for the Texas Rangers.

This is an interesting finding. I wish I knew more about how the study worked. Just kidding: give me what Mike Birch has to say on the matter. Mike Birch works at Lids, the hat store.

"I don't know what they're smoking down at Penn," said Yankees fan Mike Birch, 32.

Take that, complex statistical study. Birch is insightful and funny. One time he sold me a sweet lid with the Under Armor logo on it. "I don't know what they're smoking"! Classic. Classic Birch."

That's preposterous. I completely disagree. Jeter's a clutch player."

In one corner: "The method involved looking at every ball put in play in major league baseball from 2002 through 2005 and recorded where the shots went. Researchers then developed a probability model for the average fielder in each position and compared that with the performance of individual players to see who was better or worse than average."

In the other corner: Mike Birch. Watches three innings a week, occasionally while sober. Listens to Mike and the Mad Dog "except when they talk too smart and shit." Watches "Rome Is Burning" with the sound off. I.Q. of 175. Graduated from Cambridge University. Fields Medal winner. I know who I'm taking."

It's ridiculous," said fan Jay Ricker, 22. "Jeter is all-around awesome."

I agree," said Science, 424. "Fuck me, that is a good argument. I might as well not exist. That's it. I'm taking 500 Darvocets. Humans, welcome your new overlord, Jay Ricker, 22. He is all-around awesome.

"He's better than A-Rod any day. Character has a lot to do with it. He's out there for his teammates, not just himself. He does it for the good of the team. That's the kind of guy you want on the field."

Yes. You would never, ever want a guy scientifically proven to be dramatically better at fielding. That is not the kind of guy you want on a field. No fielders. Just team guys.

Ricker added that "A-Rod's only out for the money. For him it's not about baseball, it's just about banking."

Studies have shown that A-Rod is, incidentally, the league's best banker. A lot of people don't know this, but he was heavily recruited by Blackstone and Goldman coming out of high school. Jeter is genetically incapable of using an ATM; he in fact only understands those letters to be the acronym for ass to mouth.

Fans said Jeter's greatness goes beyond the numbers he produces on the field."He has intangible qualities that can't be measured with statistics," said East Village bar owner Kevin Hooshangi, 28.

Fans repeated a thing they had heard innumerable times on the TV and radio. "I can't change my mind about this," despaired Kevin Hooshangi. "My whole worldview depends on it being true. Jeter has intangibles. Jeter has intangibles. He does. He does!" Hooshangi continued to chant about Jeter, tears streaming down his face. "I know he does. He has them. Intangi...(unintelligible sobbing)..."

"He's the ultimate teammate. It doesn't matter what his percentages are when he's making big plays in big games. He's the one with four World Series rings."

Theory: Jeter wears rings on fielding hand, rendering fielding borderline impossible.

However, Frank Angelo, 50, gave A-Rod his due. "He's the best shortstop in the American League playing third base," Angelo said.

Then Angelo realized what city he lived in, and what newspaper he was talking to.

But Jeter as one of the worst?

"That's not true," Angelo said. "He's a good fielding shortstop." He even said he would keep Jeter at short. "Jeter's the captain, he was there before A-Rod," said Angelo.

By this logic, Jeter never should have taken over for Tony Fernandez. Fernandez was there before Jeter. Jeter should've had to slide over to third. But wait, Wade Boggs was at third. No go. Already there. But hey, should Boggs have even been there? No! He took over for Charlie Hayes. That never should have happened. NO ONE SHOULD HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS EVER. After the original roster of the 1903 New York Highlanders died, all baseball should have stopped being played forever. Thanks, Frank Angelo.

But as Yankee fan Brittnay Thompson, 32, said, it's about who's good in May, and who's good in October."In big situations A-Rod drops the ball, no pun intended," said Thompson.

Thompson added, "Are you awake, FJM guys? We're still out here. Morons, I mean. We totally outnumber you. We're loud, we're close-minded, and we dominate the media. We'll never stop being dumb about baseball. Never. We'll always keep the idiot ball rolling. Is that a pun? If it is, I didn't intend it."

posted by Junior # 8:09 PM

Mighty

The time between the double-whistle signifying the end of the Super Bowl and when pitchers and catchers report to spring training is one of those dead periods of the year. The only "sports" going on are "basketball" and "hockey." The other time (which admittedly is not as bad as this one) is after the NBA and NHL finals end, when the only sport being played is baseball. Those of you who watch Sportscenter on ESPN will remember this sad period from last year by these three words "Who's more now?" Hameivin yavin. Anyway, this dead time on the sports schedule provides us with an opportunity to predict and project the upcoming baseball season. Sooo... that's what I did! What did I do? Here's what I did:
As of now, there are four widely recognized, freely available lists of player projections on the internet: the CHONE projections (http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html), the Marcel projections (http://www.tangotiger.net/marcel/), the ZiPS projections (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/), and the Bill James projections (available on http://www.fangraphs.com/). As far as I know, these are the only projections out there that are based on statistical analysis and not just general estimation. I'm still unwilling to shell out the cash for a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, mostly because there's so much information available out there for free that it's just not worth it. Also, I read Joe Sheehan on Baseball Analysts anyway. The point is, I think I have enough trustworthy projections that I can survive without Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections.
Okay, so I downloaded the spreadsheets for each of those projections (Bill James is not available in spreadsheet format, so I won't be using his numbers much in my analysis. I'll mostly use him to provide credibility to the other projections), and had an awesome time fiddling around with them. I summed and averaged a bunch of the columns so that I could get league averages to which I could compare the Mets' numbers. I went to http://www.mlb.com/ and copied down the 40-man active New York Mets roster and found their relevant projected stats. Then, for each of the projections, I compared their stats to the league averages. In order to determine how good (or bad) each player was compared to the league averages, I only used rate stats. For pitchers I used ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 (CHONE projections also included Runs over Replacement, so I used that too), and for batters I used SB%, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS (ZiPS included Runs Created projections, so I used that too).
If you've gotten this far, it means that you care a lot about baseball, or about my feelings on the Mets. Or you just like me a lot. Anyway, if you've gotten this far because you care a lot about baseball, I'm going to explain how to calculate all of those stats. This is important because I had to calculate the league averages on my own. What I mean is that I didn't need to calculate David Wright's Slugging Percentage because it was given to me in the projection, but I needed to sum the necessary components of the mathematical formula so that I could calculate the league average Slugging Percentage. Anyway, I will use Marcel's Johan Santana as my example for pitchers and David Wright as my example for batters:
ERA: (Earned Runs divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (71 / 193) * 9 = 3.31
WHIP: (Walks + Runs) divided by Innings Pitched. Santana: (48 + 164) / 193 = 1.098
K/BB: Strikeouts divided by Walks. Santana: (198 / 48) = 4.125
K/9: (Strikeouts divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (198 / 193) * 9 = 9.233
BB/9: (Walks divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (48 / 193) * 9 = 2.238
HR/9: (Home Runs divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (23 / 193) * 9 = 1.073
SB%: Stolen Bases divided by (Stolen Bases + Caught Stealing). Wright: 23 / (23 + 4) = .852
BA: Hits divided by At-Bats. Wright: 170 / 539 = .315
OBP: (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) divided by (At-Bats + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Sacrifice Flies). Wright: (170 + 72 + 5) / (539 + 72 + 5 + 6) = .397
SLG: ((1 times Singles) + (2 times Doubles) + (3 times Triples) + (4 times Home Runs)) divided by At-Bats. Wright: ((1 * 106) + (2 * 38) + (3 * 2) + (4 * 24)) / 539 = .527
OPS: OBP + SLG. Wright: .397 + .527 = .924
Great! Now I'll use those numbers and compare them to the league average and come out with some new stats. I called these new stats "Plus" stats. What I did was I took David Wright's projected BA of .315 and divided it by the league projected BA of .270. Then I multiplied this by 100. (.315 / .270) * 100 = 117. I called this 117 David Wright's BA+. I did the same thing for each of the other stats (keep in mind that the OPS+ and ERA+ numbers I calculated are not the actual OPS+ and ERA+, which are real sabermetric stats that involve more complex calculations. These "Plus" stats are my own). I'll give one more example, because for some of the pitching stats it's better to be below the league average. I took Johan Santana's projected ERA of 3.31 and divided it by the league average ERA of 4.49, and subtracted the result from one. Then I multiplied that by 100 and added 100. ((1 - (3.31 / 4.49)) * 100) + 100 = 126, Santana's ERA+.
Okay, now I'm done explaining. Now I'll provide some notes on each player on the 40-man roster who I belive will get significant playing time, and then I'll give a little analysis on the team as a whole. This might be my longest post ever. Who's excited?: (Players I will not be mentioning: Adam Bostick, Willie Collazo, Ruddy Lugo, Carlos Muniz, Steven Register, Brian Stokes, Jason Vargas, Anderson Hernandez, and Angel Pagan)
Johan Santana:
Marcel: 193 IP, 3.31 ERA, 198 Ks, 1.098 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 122 WHIP+, 206 K/BB+, 139 K/9+, 133 BB/9+, 96 HR/9+.
CHONE: 212 IP, 2.50 ERA, 232 Ks, 0.948 WHIP, 60 RoR, 143 ERA+, 134 WHIP+, 298 K/BB+, 152 K/9+, 149 BB/9+, 113 HR/9+, 653 RoR+.
ZiPS: 234 IP, 3.04 ERA, 244 Ks, 1.017 WHIP, 134 ERA+, 131 WHIP+, 306 K/BB+, 156 K/9+, 145 BB/9+, 114 HR/9+.
Bill James: 216 IP, 3.00 ERA, 228 Ks, 1.069 WHIP.
Clearly Santana is an elite pitcher. Marcel is known for its conservative pitching projections, which were quite accurate last year. But even if Santana puts up those numbers, he would likely still be one of the top three pitchers in the NL. But if he manages to put up numbers like the other projections would suggest, then it will be one of the best pitching seasons we've seen in the NL in a long time. Jesus, his CHONE projections of 2.50 ERA, 0.948 WHIP and RoR+ of 653 would be absolutely absurd. I can't wait to watch him in person. As stated on The Hardball times website, "Oh, and if his price tag is really bothering any of you, think of it this way: in 2007 the Mets paid $23.25 million to Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, and Shawn Green. In 2008, they'll be paying roughly the same amount to Santana, Brian Schneider, and Ryan Church."
Pedro Martinez:
Marcel: 87 IP, 3.93 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.23 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 154 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 119 BB/9+, 110 HR/9+.
CHONE: 63 IP, 3.14 ERA, 62 Ks, 1.095 WHIP, 11 RoR, 128 ERA+, 123 WHIP+, 197 K/BB+, 137 K/9+, 130 BB/9+, 111 HR/9+, 120 RoR+.
ZiPS: 150 IP, 3.24 ERA, 145 Ks, 1.100 WHIP, 129 ERA+, 126 WHIP+, 233 K/BB+, 145 K/9+, 132 BB/9+, 123 HR/9+.
Bill James: 125 IP, 2.88 ERA, 135 Ks, 1.024 WHIP.
Pedro is an interesting variable this season. He is clearly an effective pitcher when he's healthy, but he has been anything but healthy for most of the past two seasons. The Marcel and CHONE projections are very conservative with only 87 and 63 expected Innings Pitched. I was prepared to disregard the ZiPS projection because it varied so differently from the other two, but Bill James is also optimistic about Pedro remaining healthy enough to log 100+ innings. If the Mets can get 300+ innings between Pedro and Johan this season, this will be a scary rotation.
John Maine:
Marcel: 163 IP, 4.03 ERA, 141 Ks, 1.282 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 112 K/BB+, 117 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 88 HR/9+.
CHONE: 155 IP, 3.89 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.348 WHIP, 19 RoR, 111 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 105 K/BB+, 111 K/9+, 93 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+, 207 RoR+.
ZiPS: 178 IP, 4.15 ERA, 148 Ks, 1.315 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 130 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
Bill James: 200 IP, 4.05 ERA, 169 Ks, 1.355 WHIP
All of these projections seem to think that the John Maine of the second half of last year is the real John Maine. His first half was outstanding, but he came back to Earth in the second half, allowing many more homers and walking more batters. Each projection has him walking more batters than average. He will still be an above-average pitcher, but we shouldn't expect anything spectacular out of him.
Oliver Perez:
Marcel: 160 IP, 4.50 ERA, 147 Ks, 1.438 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 98 WHIP+, 97 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 71 BB/9+, 80 HR/9+.
CHONE: 148 IP, 4.14 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.196 WHIP, 14 RoR, 105 ERA+, 116 WHIP+, 174 K/BB+, 143 K/9+, 118 BB/9+, 81 HR/9+, 152 RoR+.
ZiPS: 176 IP, 4.04 ERA, 170 Ks, 1.324 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 136 K/BB+, 144 K/9+, 85 BB/9+, 98 HR/9+.
Bill James: 190 IP, 4.69 ERA, 196 Ks, 1.453 WHIP
Wow, I am surprised. Here I thought that in his third season with the Mets under pitching coach Rick Peterson that Perez was primed for a breakout season. None of the projections agree with me, however. They all think he'll walk too many guys, give up too many home runs, and allow too many baserunners. I'm going to go against the grain a bit, and say that he will have an ERA below 4.00 and be better than any of these projections claim. That's Schmutter's Bold Preseason Prediction #1.
Mike Pelfrey:
Marcel: 95 IP, 4.83 ERA, 66 Ks, 1.505 WHIP, 92 ERA+, 93 WHIP+, 79 K/BB+, 94 K/9+, 80 BB/9+, 117 HR/9+.
CHONE: 119 IP, 4.01 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.403 WHIP, 9 RoR, 108 ERA+, 102 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 119 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 119 HR/9+, 98 RoR+.
ZiPS: 150 IP, 4.86 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.487 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 99 WHP+, 87 K/BB+, 90 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 123 HR/9+.
Bill James: 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 Ks, 1.281 WHIP
There's quite a bit of disparity here among the projections; Marcel and ZiPS think Pelfrey will be below average and CHONE and James think he'll be above average. It's likely that Pelfrey will fall somewhere in between, which is just fine with me for a #5 starter. It's rare for teams to have a league-average fifth starter, az I'll take it. Pelfrey is still a relatively unknown quantity because of his limited major league experience. I'm interested in seeing how he does, especially with the knowledge that El Duque is there to steal innings from him. Speaking of which...
Orlando Hernandez:
Marcel: 148 IP, 4.50 ERA, 123 Ks, 1.358 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 103 WHIP+, 99 K/BB+, 113 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 76 HR/9+.
CHONE: 141 IP, 3.77 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.298 WHIP, 19 RoR, 114 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 124 K/BB+, 122 K/9+, 101 BB/9+, 109 HR/9+, 207 RoR+.
ZiPS: 142 IP, 4.25 ERA, 119 Ks, 1.331 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 121 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 94 HR/9+.
Bill James: 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 Ks, 1.281 WHIP.
You see, since nobody really knows how old this guy is it's hard to predict when he's going to start showing his age. Some of these guys think he's already starting to regress, and the projections reflect that. Either way, it looks like El Duque will be right around league-average or slightly above. The Mets will probably use him out of the bullpen a lot, either as a situational guy for an out or two at a time, or as a long-reliever.
Pedro Feliciano:
Marcel: 63 IP, 3.57 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.317 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 114 K/9+, 93 BB/9+, 131 HR/9+.
CHONE: 41 IP, 3.51 ERA, 35 Ks, 1.268 WHIP, 5 RoR, 120 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 135 K/BB+, 119 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 122 HR/9+, 54 RoR+.
ZiPS: 65 IP, 3.19 ERA, 58 Ks, 1.246 WHIP, 131 ERA+, 116 WHIP+, 134 K/BB+, 133 K/9+, 91 BB/9+, 145 HR/9+.
Bill James: 68 IP, 3.57 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.309 WHIP.
Feliciano will be one of the prime setup men for Billy Wagner. Willie Randolph will often bring him in to face a couple of tough lefties earlier on in the game, and also to pitch the seventh inning to get the ball to Aaron Heilman for the eighth. He is projected to have an ERA in the mid-threes and not allow terribly many base runners. He'll also strike out his share of batters. He should be a solid presence in the middle of that bullpen.
Aaron Heilman:
Marcel: 77 IP, 3.62 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.221 WHIP, 119 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 127 K/BB+, 107 K/9+, 116 BB/9+, 121 HR/9+.
CHONE: 112 IP, 3.46 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.277 WHIP, 15 RoR, 121 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 125 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 106 BB/9+, 129 HR/9+, 163 RoR+.
ZiPS: 87 IP, 3.21 ERA, 73 Ks, 1.184 WHIP, 130 ERA+, 120 WHIP+, 156 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 142 HR/9+.
Bill James: 87 IP, 3.41 ERA, 72 Ks, 1.230 WHIP.
Again, I find this surprising. Heilman has had many problems in the past, so I find it amazing that they all project him to be so effective. They think he won't walk many and give up very few home runs. I hope they're right. With Heilman, Feliciano, Sanchez, and Wagner coming out of the bullpen, a lot of these games might be over after five or six innings. That would be a huge improvement over last season.
Duaner Sanchez:
Marcel: 31 IP, 3.77 ERA, 24 Ks, 1.323 WHIP, 116 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 100 K/BB+, 105 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 116 HR/9+.
CHONE: 69 IP, 3.65 ERA, 54 Ks, 1.319 WHIP, 8 RoR, 116 ERA+, 108 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 109 K/9+, 99 BB/9+, 130 HR/9+, 87 RoR+.
ZiPS: 69 IP, 3.52 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.304 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 112 WHIP+, 113 K/BB+, 115 K/9+, 90 BB/9+, 137 HR/9+.
Bill James: 61 IP, 3.98 ERA, 45 Ks, 1.361 WHIP.
Man did we miss him last season. If it weren't for that freak traffic accident we'd have had a pretty decent bullpen. The projections say that he'll be solid coming out of the bullpen. If he can keep his walks down and return to form, then this bullpen will be scary.
Jorge Sosa:
Marcel: 105 IP, 4.46 ERA, 69 Ks, 1.419 WHIP, 101 ERA+, 99 WHIP+, 86 K/BB+, 89 K/9+, 97 BB/9+, 84 HR/9+.
CHONE: 119 IP, 4.24 ERA, 81 Ks, 1.378 WHIP, 4 RoR, 103 ERA+, 104 WHIP+, 95 K/BB+, 95 K/9+, 100 BB/9+, 79 HR/9+, 44 RoR+.
ZiPS: 4.47 ERA, 77 Ks, 1.427 WHIP, 103 ERA+, 103 WHIP+, 89 K/BB+, 88 K/9+, 92 BB/9+, 101 HR/9+.
Bill James: 112 IP, 4.38 ERA, 75 Ks, 1.426 WHIP.
Sosa seems to be your typical long-relief / spot-starter guy. He might stack up as a decent #5 starter on another team. He was pretty effective last year in his handful of starts, and held his own out of the bullpen the rest of the season. I'd say he's a good guy to have around, but I don' think he'll quite reach his Innings Pitched projections unless the Mets are inundated with injuries.
Scott Schoeneweis:
Marcel: 60 IP, 4.65 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.450 WHIP, 96 ERA+, 97 WHIP+, 79 K/BB+, 93 K/9+, 83 BB/9+, 113 HR/9+.
CHONE: 65 IP, 4.57 ERA, 43 Kso 1.523 WHIP, 5 RoR, 95 ERA+, 94 WHIP+, 89 K/BB+, 92 K/9+, 97 BB/9+, 114 HR/9+, 54 RoR+.
ZiPS: 56 IP, 4.34 ERA, 39 Ks, 1.464 WHIP, 105 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 80 K/BB+, 104 K/9+, 59 BB/9+, 136 HR/9+.
Bill James: 60 IP, 4.50 ERA, 36 Ks, 1.467 WHIP.
I think Scotty should be relegated to the role of a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY). By all projections he doesn't strike anybody out, walks his fair share, and doesn't give up many home runs. I say bring him in once a game to get out that one left-handed hitter. Any more action than that will come to no good.
Billy Wagner:
Marcel: 66 IP, 3.27 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.227 WHIP, 127 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 152 K/BB+, 137 K/9+, 110 BB/9+, 108 HR/9+.
CHONE: 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.058 WHIP, 15 RoR, 137 ERA+, 126 WHIP+, 227 K/BB+, 161 K/9+, 129 BB/9+, 130 HR/9+, 163 RoR+.
ZiPS: 73 IP, 2.71 ERA, 84 Ks, 1.082 WHIP, 141 ERA+, 127 WHIP+, 221 K/BB+, 172 K/9+, 115 BB/9+, 121 HR/9+.
Bill James: 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 82 Ks, 1.014 WHIP.
Wagner remains one of the best closers in the game. As my brother reminded me last weekend, Wagner has the highest K/9 ratio of any pitcher with 500 IP ever. Even as he gets older, Wagner continues to mow down opposing hitters in the ninth inning. Expect another productive season for Billy this year.
Ambiorix Burgos:
Marcel: 44 IP, 4.50 ERA, 40 Ks, 1.409 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 100 WHIP+, 105 K/BB+, 123 K/9+, 83 BB/9+, 81 HR/9+.
CHONE: 85 IP, 3.92 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.424 WHIP, 7 RoR, 110 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 147 K/9+, 60 BB/9+, 106 HR/9+, 76 RoR+.
ZiPS: 67 IP, 4.97 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.388 WHIP, 92 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 138 K/BB+, 150 K/9+, 82 BB/9+, 50 HR/9+.
Bill James: 45 IP, 4.60 ERA, 46 Ks, 1.422 WHIP.
I really couldn't tell you how much of an impact Burgos will have this year. The Met bullpen is pretty well stocked, so unless there are a couple of injuries I don't see Burgos getting much of a shot. And it's really a shame, because he has a blazing fastball that goes about a million miles per hour, and we never really got a chance to see it. Maybe he'll be lights out in spring training.
Joe Smith:
Marcel: 47 IP, 4.02 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.426 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 99 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 91 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
ZiPS: 49 P, 3.66 ERA, 49 Ks, 1.322 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 129 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 151 HR/9+.
I find it intriguing that a pitcher like Smith, who got to pitch a bunch of innings last year is absent from two of the projections, especially considering his favorable expectations from the remaining two. Both Marcel and ZiPS expect him to be above average. He's still young though; a few months or another season in the minors couldn't hurt.
Matt Wise:
Marcel: 56 IP, 4.18 ERA, 43 Ks, 1.393 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 104 K/9+, 103 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
CHONE: 56 IP, 4.02 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.339 WHIP, 6 RoR, 108 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 116 K/BB+, 102 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 100 HR/9+, 65 RoR+.
ZiPS: 54 IP, 4.00 ERA, 42 Ks, 1.315 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 135 K/BB+, 116 K/9+, 106 BB/9+, 120 HR/9+.
Bill James: 40 IP, 3.83 ERA, 31 Ks, 1.275 WHIP.
Wise looks like he'll shape up to be a nice addition to the pen this season. Interesting how he's projected at average or above average in every single area. I'll admit that I never heard of him before I looked at the Mets active roster, but I look forward to hearing a lot of him this year.
Brian Schneider:
Marcel: .253 BA, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 2 SB, .326 OBP, .365 SLG, .692 OPS, 94 BA+, 97 OBP+, 86 SLG+, 91 OPS+.
CHONE: .251 BA, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .316 OBP, .365 SLG, .678 OPS, 96 BA+, 99 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 96 OPS+.
ZiPS: .238 BA, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 1 SB, .316 OBP, .318 SLG, .634 OPS, 3.5 RC/27, 94 BA+, 99 OBP+, 81 SLG+, 89 OPS+, 83 RC/27+.
Bill James: .249 BA, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 0 SB, .328 OBP, .362 SLG, .690 OPS, 4.06 RC/27.
Well, he probably won't hit much worse than Paul LoDuca, and he'll probably play a helluvalot better defense. I still think that Ramon Castro should get a lot of at-bats because he's clearly a better hitter. Schneider has been quite durable and he's not old, so I don't think Willie Randolph will hesitate to use Castro as a pinch hitter quite often. I mean usually managers like to keep one catcher in reserve because it's the hardest position on the field to replace. But in this case, I think Randolph can be more flexible.
Ramon Castro:
Marcel: .262 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 2 SB, .330 OBP, .454 SLG, .784 OPS, 97 BA+, 98 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 103 OPS+.
CHONE: .242 BA, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, .320 OBP, .396 SLG, .716 OPS, 92 BA+, 101 OBP+, 101 SLG+, 101 OPS+.
ZiPS: .250 BA, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB, .318 OBP, .434 SLG, .752 OPS, 4.6 RC/27, 98 BA+, 100 OBP+, 111 SLG+, 106 OPS+, 109 RC/27+.
Bill James: .252 BA, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 0 SB, .322 OBP, .469 SLG, .791 OPS, 5.15 RC/27.
Uch, he's such a better hitter than Schneider. I mean look at those Slugging Percentages! He's an extra-base-hit machine! Erm, that is when he makes contact... But I guess that's why he's not an every day player. I think if Schneider sucks it up or gets hurt, and Castro gets an opportunity to play every day, he'll really show us what he can do. Those over-100 OPS+s are very good for a catcher.
Carlos Delgado:
Marcel: .265 BA, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 3 SB, .349 OBP, .485 SLG, .833 OPS, 98 BA+, 103 OBP+, 114 SLG+, 109 OPS.
CHONE: .256 BA, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 0 SB, .350 OBP, .489 SLG, .839 OPS, 98 BA+, 110 OBP+, 125 SLG+, 118 OPS+.
ZiPS: .257 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB, .349 OBP, .476 SLG, .825 OPS, 5.9 RC/27, 101 BA+, 110 OBP+, 122 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 140 RC/27+.
Bill James: .269 BA, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, .373 OBP, .508 SLG, .881 OPS, 6.48 RC/27.
Heee's baaaaack! After a horrible 2007, all of these projections feel that Delgado will bounce back, especially Bill James. If he can truly return to form, then the middle of the Mets batting order, Church, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, and Alou should terrorize NL East pitching. A lot of the blame for the Mets' struggles last year can be placed on Delgado. He'll be eager to show that he still has the skills that made him one of the most fearsome sluggers in all of baseball for the last decade and a half.
Luis Castillo:
Marcel: .290 BA, 4 HR, 42 RBI, 17 SB, .357 OBP, .371 SLG, .728 OPS, 107 BA+, 106 OBP+, 87 SLG+, 95 OPS+, 96 SB+.
CHONE: .293 BA, 4 HR, 49 RBI, 13 SB, .364 OBP, .369 SLG, .733 OPS, 112 BA+, 114 OBP+, 94 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 94 SB+.
ZiPS: .294 BA, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 18 SB, .361 OBP, .359 SLG, .720 OPS, 4.7 RC/27, 116 BA+, 114 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 101 OPS+, 110 SB+, 112 RC/27+.
Bill James: .299 BA, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 20 SB, .370 OBP, .360 SLG, .730 OPS, 4.85 RC/27.
Castillo is an interesting hitter. He has absolutely no power, and will hit very few extra-base hits. Nontheless, he manages to walk a lot and makes contact, so he still gets on base a ton. The Mets have zero Second Base prospects, so they need stopgap until they can get somebody young, az Castillo looks like he'll be a fixture in this lineup for the next four seasons. I DON'T think he should bat second like he did last year; I think Ryan Church should hit second and Castillo should hit eighth.
Jose Reyes:
Marcel: .292 BA, 12 HR, 62 RBI, 59 SB, .351 OBP, .442 SLG, .793 OPS, 108 BA+, 104 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 104 OPS+, 109 SB+.
CHONE: .294 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 50 SB, .342 OBP, .440 SLG, .782 OPS, 112 BA+, 108 OBP+, 112 SLG+, 110 OPS+, 117 SB+.
ZiPS: .285 BA, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 71 SB, .356 OBP, .444 SLG, .800 OPS, 5.7 RC/28, 112 BA, 112 OBP+, 113 SLG+, 113 OPS+, 119 SB+, 135 RC/27+.
Bill James: .289 BA, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 69 SB, .348 OBP, .442 SLG, .790 OPS, 5.57 RC/27.
I'm upset that all the projections took Reyes's second half dropoff last year so seriously. Before that he was being touted as maybe the best all around player in the game. Now nobody projects him to have an OPS higher than .800. Don't get me wrong, he's still an outstanding player, but he's no longer expected to be that elite player. I think he'll outperform all of these projections. Schmutter's Bold Preseason Prediction #2: Reyes's OPS is higher than .825 and he outperforms Jimmy Rollins.
David Wright:
Marcel: .315 BA, 24 HR, 98 RBI, 23 SB, .397 OBP, .527 SLG, .924 OPS, 117 BA+, 118 OBP+, 124 SLG+, 121 OPS+, 115 SB+.
CHONE: .301 BA, 26 HR, 96 RBI, 19 SB, .387 OBP, .518 SLG, .905 OPS, 115 BA+, 122 OBP+, 132 SLG+, 127 OPS+, 115 SB+.
ZiPS: .313 BA, 29 HR, 113 RBI, 23 SB, .405 OBP, .540 SLG, .945 OPS, 8.4 RC/27, 123 BA+, 127 OBP+, 138 SLG+, 133 OPS+, 125 SB+, 200 RC/27+.
Bill James: .318 BA, 31 HR, 111 RBI, 27 SB, .407 OBP, .554 SLG, .961 OPS, 8.52 RC/27.
What a stud! There are a lot of sabermetricians out there who think he's the best player in the NL, and I don't know if I can argue against it. Now that Miguel Cabrera is gone, the only other players in the NL that have a chance to be as good as Wright for the foreseeable future are Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun. Utley's and Howard's numbers get inflated by their ballpark, and Ramirez and Braun are brutal defensive players, so it's really down to Wright and Utley. Those two will be challenging each other for the MVP all season. And if Delgado and Beltran can provide him some support and protection in the lineup, it will only help Wright more.
Moises Alou:
Marcel: .300 BA, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB, .359 OBP, .493 SLG, .852 OPS, 111 BA+, 106 OBP+, 116 SLG+, 112 OPS+.
CHONE: .282 BA, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 3 SB, .349 OBP, .459 SLG, .808 OPS, 108 BA+, 110 OBP+, 117 SLG+, 114 OPS+.
ZiPS: .302 BA, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB, .365 OBP, .489 SLG, .854 OPS, 6.6 RC/27, 119 BA+, 115 OBP+, 125 SLG+, 120 OPS+, 157 RC/27+.
Bill James: .292 BA, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 3 SB, .360 OBP, .477 SLG, .837 OPS, 6.28 RC/27.
I don't care if he is 93 years old, dude can still rake. I mean nobody expects him to play more than 100 games or so, but he'll still manage to be productive when he's healthy. Guy's a professional hitter, period (comma period period). I'm not too crazy about the prospect of Endy Chavez taking over when Mo gets injured, but that's the risk you take. I hear we've got this guy named Martinez down in the minors...
Endy Chavez:
Marcel: .283 BA, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 8 SB, .333 OBP, .407 SLG, .740 OPS, 105 BA+, 99 OBP+, 96 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
CHONE: .277 BA, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 15 SB, .326 OBP, .379 SLG, .705 OPS, 106 BA+, 103 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 99 OPS+, 109 SB+.
ZiPS: .275 BA, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB, .319 OBP, .379 SLG, .698 OPS, 4.1 RC/27, 108 BA+, 100 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 98 OPS+, 97 RC/27+.
Bill James: .273 BA, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, .318 OBP, .368 SLG, .696 OPS, 4.19 RC/27.
Endy's a nice little stopgap for when Moises Alou inevitably goes on the disabled list. He filled in nicely a couple of years ago, and he will always have a special place in Mets fans' hearts for stealing a home run from Scott Rolen in game seven of the 2006 NLCS. And everyone likes to pull for the little guy. He has absolutely no power, but he always plays hard and will surprise us with the occasional home run. He's an outstanding defensive outfielder and will come in late in many games as a defensive replacement to spare Alou's rickety knees any excess punishment. All in all he's not a bad guy to have around.
Carlos Beltran:
Marcel: .271 BA, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 18 SB, .355 OBP, .498 SLG, .853 OPS, 100 BA+, 105 OBP+, 117 SLG+, 112 OPS+, 116 SB+.
CHONE: .271 BA, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 23 SB, .373 OBP, .496 SLG, .869 OPS, 103 BA+, 117 OBP+, 127 SLG+, 122 OPS+, 124 SB+.
ZiPS: .261 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 15 SB, .347 OBP, .476 SLG, .823 OPS, 5.9 RC/27, 103 BA+, 109 OBP+, 121 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 134 SB+, 140 RC/27+.
Bill James: .275 BA, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 23 SB, .364 OBP, .515 SLG, .879 OPS, 6.73 RC/27.
I feel like Beltran is the forgotten man in this Mets lineup (as much as a man making $119 million can be forgotten); he's just so quiet and unobtrusive. Everyone marvels at Wright's youth, and Reyes's excitement, and Delgado's smelliness from last year, but Beltran really proves his worth day after day. He plays an excellent center field, steals bases, and hits for power. I think the Marcel and ZiPS projections are a bit low, and James might be a bit high, but if Carlos can put up an OPS of .850 and hit 30 home runs, we'll be very happy.
Damion Easley:
Marcel: .250 BA, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 3 SB, .325 OBP, .414 SLG, .740 OPS, 93 BA+, 96 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
CHONE: .249 BA, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, .329 OBP, .402 SLG, .731 OPS, 95 BA+, 103 OBP+, 103 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 97 SB+.
ZiPS: .242 BA, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB, .321 OBP, .392 SLG, .713 OPS, 4.3 RC/27, 95 BA+, 101 OBP+, 100 SLG+, 100 OPS+, 102 RC/27+.
Bill James: .235 BA, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .326 OBP, .395 SLG, .721 OPS, 3.95 RC/27.
Ruben Gotay:
Marcel: .272 BA, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 4 SB, .337 OBP, .415 SLG, .752 OPS, 101 BA+, 100 OBP+, 98 SLG+, 98 OPS+.
CHONE: .251 BA, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB, .315 OBP, .373 SLG, .688 OPS, 96 BA+, 99 OBP+, 95 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
ZiPS: .245 BA, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .304 OBP, .361 SLG, .665 OPS, 3.6 RC/27, 96 BA+, 96 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 94 OPS+, 86 RC/27+.
Bill James: .258 BA, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB, .321 OBP, .406 SLG, .727 OPS, 4.33 RC/27.
Marlon Anderson:
Marcel: .278 BA, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 6 SB, .335 OBP, .443 SLG, .778 OPS, 103BA+, 99 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 102 OPS+.
CHONE: .267 BA, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 5 SB, .322 OBP, .419 SLG, .741 OPS, 102 BA+, 101 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 104 OPS+.
ZiPS: .257 BA, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB, .319 OBP, .410 SLG, .729 OPS, 4.4 RC/27, 101 BA+, 100 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 105 RC/27+.
Bill James: .262 BA, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 3 SB, .323 OBP, .402 SLG, .725 OPS, 4.57 RC/27.
Easley, Gotay, and Anderson are going to be the Mets top utility guys. They can play the infield and the outfield, and they can be used to benefit from the platoon advantage. They'll be good for a little pop off the bench, and will fill in nicely when Castillo, Delgado, Beltran, and Church need breaks or get injured. This is really shaping up to be be a solid bench. I should do some research on play from non-starters from recent successful teams.
Ryan Church:
Marcel: .274 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 6 SB, .350 OBP, .465 SLG, .815 OPS, 102 BA+, 104 OBP+, 109 SLG+, 107 OPS+.
CHONE: .244 BA, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, .324 OBP, .414 SLG, .738 OPS, 93 BA+, 102 OBP+, 106 SLG+, 104 OPS.
ZiPS: .272 BA, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB, .351 OBP, .469 SLG, .820 OPS, 5.7 RC/27, 107 BA+, 110 OBP+, 120 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 135 RC/27+.
Bill James: .273 BA, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .353 OBP, .463 SLG, .816 OPS, 5.71 RC/27.
For my in-depth Ryan Church analysis, see my post from November 20th, 2007, entitled "Church v. Hunter."
Mets Pitching Totals:
Marcel: 4.20 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 104 WHIP+, 109 K/BB+, 113 K/9+, 103 BB/9+, 103 HR/9+.
CHONE: 3.84 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 124 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 105 BB/9+, 106 HR/9+, 136 RoR+.
ZiPS: 4.25 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 125 K/BB+, 117 K/9+, 98 BB/9+, 110 HR/9+.
Bill James: 3.83 ERA, 1.281 WHIP.
By all accounts, this staff will match up with the best in the league. It's clearly the best staff in the NL East, and it will be interesting to see how it matches up with the staffs in the NL West, namely the staffs of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres. Either way, what was considered a weakness in the team last season is now a strength, especially if the pitchers can stay healthy.
Mets Hitting Totals:
Marcel: .278 BA, .348 OBP, .446 SLG, .793 OPS, 103 BA+, 103 OBP+, 105 SLG+, 104 OPS+.
CHONE: .269 BA, .338 OBP, .419 SLG, .757 OPS, 103 BA+, 106 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 107 OPS+.
ZiPS: .251 BA, .341 OBP, .392 SLG, .733 OPS, 99 BA+, 107 OBP+, 100 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 119 RC/27+.
Bill James: .279 BA, .325 OBP, .453 SLG, .778 OPS, 5.31 RC/27.
I'm going to ignore the ZiPS projection because it has the most players on it. It gives projections for many players that probably will not see any major league plate appearances this year. The other projections show that the Mets' lineup will be above average all around. Again, they need to get good production out of Carlos Delgado and they need to stay healthy, but I guess I can say that about any team. Look for the Mets to go through some cold stretches, but the pitching should hold up its end of the bargain and minimize these cold stretches.
Final Bold Preseason Prediction: The Mets won 88 games last year, and that included a horrible month of September. I predict that the Mets will win 96 games and lose 66 games and win the NL East. Beyond that, who can say? The playoffs are a crapshoot anyway, right?