Who Knew?

Seriously, where would I be without Joe Posnanski? He actually writes for a living, and consequently his blog is far better than mine. But I'm just a kid, right? Anyway, he made a very astute point today, one that I never would have realized without his help. I'm almost ashamed to put this in print (some of you will be suprised about this), but it seems that Keith Hernandez was at least as good as Don Mattingly. I would never have noticed this, especially because I grew up watching Donnie play, and Keith's best days were already behind him by 1988. Why don't we just dive into the stats, okay?

Overall:
Mattingly: 7003 AB, 1007 Runs, 2153 Hits, 442 2Bs, 20 3Bs, 222 HR, 1099 RBI, 588 BB, 444 Ks, .307 BA, .358 OBP, .471 SLG, .829 OPS, 127 OPS+, .300 EqA, 43 FRAA, 84.7 WARP3, 1127 RC, 6.06 RC/27, 249.85 WS
Hernandez: 7370 AB, 1124 Runs, 2182 Hits, 426 2Bs, 60 3Bs, 162 HR, 1071 RBI, 1070 BB, 1012 Ks, .296 BA, .384 OBP, .436 SLG, .820 OPS, 128 OPS+, .300 EqA, 207 FRAA, 112.5 WARP3, 1274 RC, 6.26 RC/27, 295.45 WS

Those numbers are really, really close. The counting stats are so similar it's almost a wash (Hits, 2Bs, RBI), and the rate stats are also nearly indistinguishable (OPS, EqA). If you take apart OPS, you start to see the differences; Hernandez walked A LOT more than Mattingly, but Mattingly hit more home runs to drive up that SLG. Otherwise, the only stats that really separate the two are strikeouts (you know how I feel about those) and fielding. Joe Posnanski put it best: "And while Mattingly was an outstanding defensive first baseman, Hernandez was a groundbreaking one, maybe the best defensive first baseman ever to play the game." Hernandez's fielding was worth 207 more runs than an average 1st baseman, while Donnie's was worth a respectable 43.

They both had their share of fantastic seasons; they both won an MVP award and finished in the top ten in voting three other times. One could argue that Mattingly should have won the award in both 1985 (when he actually won) and in 1986 when he had an even better season, although he lost that award to a tiny Texan pitcher named Clemens. Anyway, here are those seasons:

Mattingly (1985): 652 ABs, 107 Runs, 211 Hits, 48 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 35 HR, 145 RBI(!), 56 BB, 41 Ks, .324 BA, .371 OBP, .567 SLG, .938 OPS, 156 OPS+, .327 EqA, 5 FRAA, 10.9 WARP3, 136 RC, 7.72 RC/27, Gold Glove (1st of 9 in 10 years)
Mattingly (1986): 677 ABs, 117 Runs, 238 Hits, 53 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 53 BB, 35 Ks(!), .352 BA, .394 OBP, .573 SLG, .967 OPS, 161 OPS+, .336 EqA, 9 FRAA, 12 WARP3, 150 RC, 8.68 RC/27, Gold Glove
Hernandez (1979): 610 AB, 116 Runs, 210 Hits, 48 2Bs, 11 3Bs, 11 HR, 105 RBI, 80 BB, 78 Ks, .344 BA, .417 OBP, .513 SLG, .930 OPS, 151 OPS+, .324 EqA, 21 FRAA, 11.4 WARP3, 135 RC, 8.66 RC/27, Gold Glove (1st of 11 in a row)

Geez, these guys are so similar it's almost scary. It is important to me that these stats remain unfrightening, especially since Don Mattingly could still get voted into the Hall of Fame.