F the H?

Hameivin Yavin.

Let's get all FJM-y for a minute. Here is an actual exchange on BBTN regarding the Carlos Beltran trade:

Karl Ravech: You like it? You love it? Or you hate it?

Mark Mulder: I think I like it. I mean it's... it's r-... it's really good; don't get me wrong, but I like it only because of how many outfielders they have, and now that they'll be rotating guys in and out, how does that change those other guys' roles?

Karl Ravech (awesomely, stupefied): Who cares?

Mark Mulder (caught completely off-guard): ... I'm... just sayin'.

John Kruk (also caught off guard): ...wow...

Karl Ravech (more awesomely): I mean... really? So you're gonna... Beltran vs. Nate Schierholz or Cody Ross or Aaron Rowand? Do you worry about the... the relationship that you have with the other players? The clubhouse?

John Kruk (coming to the defense of Mark): That could happen -

Karl Ravech (interrupting, absolutely dumbfounded): Really?

John Kruk: That could really happen...

And then Kruk gives some bizarre commentary on the clubhouse and team chemistry.

The highest of high comedy. Great stuff.

Big Week

Yes, we won, and we're all thrilled, but there's no time to relax; we have to work on fixing our mistakes before heading into Pittsburgh, where the Steelers will be looking for payback after a 22-17 loss to the Jets in week 15. There was a lot of stuff I liked about the Jets' effort today; the secondary had its best game of the season. The receivers made some tremendous catches. And the running game did just enough to put the game away.

But, to be honest, there were a lot more things I did not like about the way the Jets played. The secondary truly bailed out the Jets coaching staff and some folks on special teams. Here is my list of concerns:

Forcing those two fumbles on Brady and Woodcock was terrific, but you HAVE to fall on the ball. We had first crack at recovering both of those fumbles.

And speaking of falling on the ball, I cannot believe Cromartie had the chutzpah to pick up the onside kick and run it back. If he fails to pick up the ball and the Patriots recover, that becomes the stupidest play of the year. Yes, even stupider than Santonio Holmes's antics on the first punt last week. Mike Westhoff is gonna be pulling some ears this week.

I liked that we followed the same blueprint as last week, but if the cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers are all dropping back into coverage, who's gonna stop the running backs from getting to the second level? The tackling on the Law Firm and Danny Woodcock was horrific. Rashard Mendenhall burned us for 100 yards last time. If he does it again, I don't like our chances. The tackling all around was terrible today. If you get your hand on a man in front of the first-down marker or behind the line of scrimage, you better wrap him up. No excuses.

I think the fade pattern into the end zone is the lowest percentage play call of all time. I might understand if you want to call it on 1st down, but on 3rd and 4 in the red zone? Horrible. It took a legendary catch to make it work. The slants were working all day, and that's a MUCH easier throw for an inaccurate quarterback to make.

With the Jets up 14 with 1:30 to go, the last think you want to do is let Brady drive down the field in under a minute to score a touchdown and give them the opportunity to try another onside kick. You played outstanding defense all day; why switch it up now? The only one who played defense on that drive was Antonio Cromartie, when he broke up the throw to Deion Branch at the goal-line. It's well established that the only thing the infamous "prevent defense" prevents is punts (hat tip Gregg Easterbrook).

One thing I learned today that I did not know before: David Harris is very very slow. Aside from the interception, which was an outstanding read, he did not have a very good game. He missed two tackles for losses that turned into first downs, and I've never seen anybody run back an interception so slowly. He only weighs 25 pounds more than I do, and 50 pounds LESS than Alge Crumpler, who caught him from behind so easily it was laughable. I love you, but that was poorly done, Mr. Harris.

The Jets had a tough time running up the middle all day. And yet, when the time came to burn the clock, they ran the ball up the middle three times in a row for two yards. At least try some kind of misdirection to try to get a first down. The object is to keep the ball out of Tom Brady's hands, not be satisfied with taking two minutes off the clock and handing it back to him.

Let's take a look at these bonehead plays:

Jets first possession, 4th and 5 from the NEW ENGLAND 43 yard line. Yep, out trots the punting unit. You are in the Patriots' house. You lost to them by 42 points six weeks ago, and you're in opponent territory! Why are you punting! Sure enough, Weatherford, who had an awful game in Indianapolis "booms" a 27 yard punt that's fair-caught at the 16 yard line. Well done.

Jets first drive of the second quarter, 4th and 6 from the NEW ENGLAND 45 yard line. Yep, out trots the punting unit. You can't win a game like this by playing 'fraidy-cat football. You need to take it right at the Patriots. Show them you're not scared! Weatherford "booms" his longest gross yardage punt of the day, right into the endzone. Net punt of 25 yards.

Jets ball, 4:05 left in the first half. Jets have 4th and 1 from the NEW ENGLAND 41 yard line. Yep, out trots the punting unit. You don't trust your guys to get you one single, solitary yard? The Jets are the best power-rushing team in the NFL, and you don't have any faith whatsoever in your offensive line and your two tailbacks? Weatherford "booms" a 41 yard punt into the endzone for a touchback. Net punt of 21 yards.

Jets second drive of the second half, 4th and 6 from the NEW ENGLAND 38 yard line. The 38 yard line! Yep, out trots the punting unit. What do you think is going to happen? Steve Weatherford hasn't kicked a decent punt in a month, and you want him to pin the Patriots. GO FOR IT, YOU FREAKIN' MORONS! Weatherford "booms" an 18 yard punt that goes out of bounds. Might as well kick it into the endzone.

That's four punts from New England Territory, none of which gave the Patriots worse field position than their own 16 yard line. That's inexcusable play-calling and unforgivable punting. Rex and Mike Westoff need to seriously reconsider how they want to deal with 4th downs next week.

That's enough for now, back to watching hours of highlights before the baby comes. What a terrific week it should be!

Officials

Anyone who has watched a Jets game with me over the past month will hear me say several things every game. These include: "How does Sanchez have no one to pass to?!" and "Wow... the officials... again..." I mean, I assume the first one will work itself out. Our receivers are way too talented to stay covered all the time, and Sanchez's completion percentage has been on the rise, az that's not really a huge concern of mine. But the second one... I know these things are supposed to even out over the course of the season, but some of these aren't even-out-able, if you catch my meaning. I'll give you a couple of examples.

Week 6 against Denver, Jim Leonhard was called for an unnecessary roughness penalty for a helmet-to-helmet tackle of Brandon Lloyd, who had just caught a 29 yard pass on the sidelines. Then, the Jets challenged the play, claiming that Lloyd did not have full control of the ball until he was out of bounds. The call was upheld following review. There were so many things the officials had wrong on that play that it was laughable:

a. Video cameras from every angle show the exact same thing: Leonhard's helmet did not touch Lloyd's helmet. The hit was 100% clean.

b. Even before the replay, it looked as though Lloyd did not maintain control of the ball in bounds.

c. Following the challenge and replay, not only did the officials fail to overturn the call (thereby acknowledging their mistake), but they also failed to mention anything about Leonhard's hit.

You know, just once I'd like to hear the referee say that the officiating team screwed up. But wait, there's more. As you know, each team gets two challenges per game, unless a team successfully challenges those two, in which case the team is awarded a third challenge. Well, losing that first challenge left Rex Ryan with only one more challenge, and that very drive by the Broncos merited the use of the remaining challenge. But you can't count on the incompetent referees to make a decent call these days, so when Demaryius Thomas caught a 17 yard touchdown by the sidelines, Ryan felt that he needed to save his challenge for later. If you were watching, the Thomas touchdown looked precisely like the Lloyd catch; it was clear that he did not control the ball until he was out of bounds.

So let's follow the sequence of events: Botched call on the penalty, botched call on the sideline catch by Lloyd, the Jets lose the challenge, botched call on the Thomas touchdown, and because of the lost challenge, the Jets couldn't challenge the touchdown. Basically, that entire drive and touchdown was engineered by the incompetence of the referees.

Fast-forward to this past Sunday. Now, it's no secret that Browns fans hate Braylon Edwards, but that does not give the officials the right to let Edwards get pummeled. On his first catch of the game, a 6-yard slant, and you'll forgive me if I can't identify both Browns players, Edwards was wrapped up by the cornerback Sheldon Brown. On the tackle, Brown went after Edwards with his helmet, resulting in an injury to Brown. That play in and of itself should have been flagged for a penalty for an illegal hit. But wait, after Brown wrapped him up, another player went to assist Brown with the tackle, and if anyone was watching, it almost looked like slow motion. The player slowed down a couple of yards away from Edwards, lowered his helmet, zeroed in on his target, blew some smoke from his nostrils, shifted into 3rd gear, girded his loins, and launched himself at Edwards helmet-first. Now, some of that is conjecture, and I wish I could find a video of the play, but you could clearly see the gentleman lower his helmet and launch himself at Edwards. Just a few weeks ago, the NFL relayed to the officials that helmet-to-helmet hits against defenseless receivers should be flagged for a personal foul, and the offending player should be ejected, suspended, and fined. Now, here we are, a few weeks later, and two players make the same illegal hit on the same receiver ON THE SAME PLAY! And not one flag. No one even said anything about it.

And finally, 1:56 left in overtime, 2nd down and 4 yards to go at the 44-yard line, Jets driving for the potential winning score, and LaDainian Tomlinson springs through the right side for a critical 8-yard gain, making it 1st and 10 at the Cleveland 36-yard line. And then... holding on Brandon Moore, 10-yard penalty, repeat 2nd down. And now it's 2nd and 14 from the Jets 46-yard line. Two plays later, on 3rd and 14, Sanchez heaves a hail-mary interception around the goal-line. CBS looked at the replay several times. Jim Nantz and Phil Simms seem puzzled. "Did you see anything?" asks Simms? No response from Nantz. Az Simms says the PC thing, "but I guess we're not down there on the field."

These are game-changing plays we are seeing. The officials are doing the exact opposite of their jobs; they are taking the results of games out of the hands of the players and into their own; they are abusing their power and shirking their responsibilities. And the calls are not evening out. The Jets are winning games IN SPITE of the horrific officiating these past four weeks. I hate to over-dramatize this, but that's the way it seems to this frustrated Jets fan.

Thursday Thoughts

I just can't help getting swept up in the whole LeBron tidal wave. I haven't really cared about basketball for over 10 years, but still. If you ask me, he has known the entire time where he will play; the rest is all marketing and publicity instigated by his agent and publicist. Personally, and I might be biased, I believe he wants to be The Man, az he should come to New York where, if he wins, he would become a god. That's really all I have to say. I'll be there watching at 9 tonight just like all the other mindless basketball fans.

Also, in case anyone was curious about my gchat status...

Boss: Why don't your spreadsheets all start with the footers already there?! When I start a new document, I just use the one I have open and just delete everything, so I don't even have to worry about putting footers.

Me: But that's so annoying.

Boss: You probably just start up a new Excel.

Me: I do not! You think I go to the start menu? I just click the "new" button on the top when I already have Excel open.

Boss: It's the same thing!

Me: No it's not! The start menu opens up a new Excel universe!

Boss: ::flips me the bird::

Ha-yoooj nerd. This guy.

Trust

Az one thing I really wanted to mention when it happened a few weeks ago is a story of how nice New Yorkers can be. One Wednesday afternoon, I left work and walked over to Books and Bagels Cafe on 19th Street. It's sorta on my way from work to school, and I needed a "bed" on which my peanut butter could lay (see Hedberg, Mitchell). Anyway, I attempted to pay with a credit card, but the gentleman behind the counter told me there's a $10 minimum, az I began to walk out. He stopped me and said "you know what? Just take one. They're gonna go in the garbage anyway." Sweet! Free bagel! And just as an aside, I don't care if you're not in college anymore; free food is still free food.

I continued on my merry way towards class, and since I had some time to kill I popped into Peculier Pub on Bleecker for a beer. Now, as is my custom, I perused the menu for not a short amount of time to find a beer I'd never had before. One would think this would be easy, considering that they have around 300 beers on the menu, but not for this guy! As I'm cruising and perusing, a handful of rowdy, yet friendly gentlemen are going on and on about Beer Lao (an appropriate name for a beer from Laos, don't you think?). I finally make my decision and order a beer from the bartender, and she shyly informs me that they are out of the one I selected. The rowdy, yet friendly gentlemen took pity on me, and one of them said "after all that, you don't even have it? Get this man a Beer Lao, on me!" I repeatedly attempted to pay for my own beer, but the gentleman would have none of it. And then we got to talking, and apparently he had gone to Laos on a trip some years earlier and really enjoyed Beer Lao, and Peculier Pub is the only place he's seen it outside of Southeast Asia. Sweet! Free beer!

Az now I have free food and free beer. I almost scored the trifecta, but nobody offered to pay for my transportation.

Speaking of transportation and the trifecta, I would be remiss if I didn't mention this golden nugget. I was driving back to my apartment one evening, and I was listening to the traffic report on the radio to see if there was anything doing on the Henry Hudson Parkway. I can't remember anything about that, since the report was dominated by the broadcaster describing the traffic on the Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Williamsburg Bridges as a "trifecta of trouble." It was absolutely priceless. Words I need to use more: Trifecta. Also "trousers." I need to use "trousers" a lot more often. But that's another story.

Anyway, onto the issue of trust. In order to function, we need to have a certain amount of trust in everything and everyone with whom we interact. We have certain ideas in our head about how things are supposed to work. My close friend, Trusty McLoyalman would never do or say anything to hurt me deliberately. Speedy Airbaggington is a decent driver and will signal and look at his blind spot when switching lanes. Cloudy Stormerstein will do her best to give an accurate weather report on the news. And Yorkman O'Times will expertly give us stock tips based on his insider information. Another words, there sure are a lot of folks we trust, whether we want to or not.

But you want to hear an interesting one? What about authors? Some of us read a lot of books, and when we open a book for the first time, we are placing our trust in the author's hands. We trust that he or she has a plan, and the author will execute his or her plan regardless of the circuitous route we need to follow in order to get there. The difference with authors though, is that we are entirely at his or her mercy. The author has created an entirely new world with new creatures, new landscapes, and new rules. The further into the story we get, the more we come to rely on our conceptions of these rules. But what's to stop the author from throwing us a total curveball and screwing with our preconceived notions of those rules? Or worse, what's to stop the author from thowing us a total screwball and curving with our preconceived notions of those rules? The answer, of course, is nothing. With every page we turn we make a choice. Do I continue to trust this author? Is the next page going to reveal something so distasteful that I will choose to put the book down and pick up another?

I thought of these questions will I was reading on the subway this morning. I have no idea why the author forced our protagonist to do the dastardly deed, especially after spending the first 90 pages reeling me in. I have chosen to trust the author and press onward. We'll see if my trust is rewarded.

Kiddush Hashem

Let's try for two!

I'm listening to the Michael Kay show, and over the past week or two, I've heard a couple of promotional radio commercials for the Kay show during some of the earlier programs (Mike and Mike, Brandon Tierney, Colin Cowherd, etc.). These commercials usually have one or another of the hosts (Michael, Don La Greca, Bonnie Bernstein, etc.) and occasionally a caller saying something interesting, as if to say "our show has intelligent people saying compelling things! Listen to us!" One of the commercials featured a caller named David from Jerusalem. I can't remember what he said that they put on the commercial, but I believe the purpose of using that call in the promo was to demonstrate that their show is so popular that they even have people calling from Israel. Cool.

Anyway, sure enough, David from Jerusalem just called in again today to talk about football and the frustration of cheering for losing teams, and after the sports talk, Michael and Don were chatting with David and asking him about Israel. They asked him what time it was, and David said "it's about 20 minutes to 11 here. We're seven hours ahead." Then they asked him if he ever lived in the states, and David responded "yeah, I lived there for 35 years; I moved here a year and a half ago." They then asked him how it is over there and why he moved, and David said "I moved mostly for religious reasons. It was difficult because I moved without a job and actually spent my first year here unemployed. But I've started working, and every day here is truly a blessing. I think it was the right thing to do for me, my family, and hopefully, ultimately, my people."

I really think it was a huge kiddush Hashem that David spoke so intelligently and eloquently on the radio. There are so many callers who can't speak properly and don't use correct grammar, az for David to represent Israel and Jews the way he did was truly fantastic and inspirational.

Shkoyach.

Some Thoughts for a Busy Sports Week

There are few times when the Jets and Mets dominate the back pages of the papers in New York, az I couldn't let such an opportunity pass me by. Well, I'm not actually gonna talk about the Mets much; there's just not enough about which I can get excited yet. I do like the Jason Bay signing even though it's a bit expensive. In a vacuum, I think it's an excellent move, but not in the sense that you might think. A lot of people in the news and on the radio are saying that it's a waste of money unless the Mets improve in other areas, e.g. pitching. I don't really buy into that; I prefer to suggest that it's an excellent move as long as it portends the future signings of similar-type players. If Omar Minaya is thinking "well, we've got to do SOMETHING, and Jason is either the best or second best hitter on the market, so let's see if we can get him," then it will truly be a waste of money. I hope and pray that Omar is actually thinking "hey, Jason Bay has tons of plate discipline and gets on base all the time, so if I can get him to drive Carlos in and get on base in front of David, then he's a perfect fit. Maybe in the next couple of years I can get a couple more guys who get on base." I'll drink to that.

I'll get to the Jets in a minute (again, I'm not really gonna talk too much about them, except to say something probably ridiculously inappropriate. Stay tuned.), but first I want to take a jab at everybody's favorite ESPN Radio host Colin Cowherd. Now, I do listen to him every day from 12-2, az I submit that his show can be entertaining at times; in fact, I will agree that when it comes to the business of sports he has a lot of intelligent things to say. But when it comes to stats, it's best just to turn him off. Unless you get a gem like this! I forget exactly how it went down, but during the course of an interview, Colin said something like "...but Mike Cameron isn't as good as, say, Torii Hunter. I mean everyone knows that, right? Right??" And as I was just obliquely paying attention to the radio, I found myself nodding my head. But then I thought, wait, Hunter's career OBP can't be much higher than .340, and I know he's over-rated as a defender. Meanwhile, Cameron walks a lot and I know he plays good defense. Let me check this out.

I'm actually going to check baseballprospectus.com and baseball-reference.com this instant to see how they both fare WARP-wise:

Hunter (6,008): OPS: .802, OPS+: 107, EqA: .268, WARP3: 24.9

Cameron (7,435 PA): OPS: .788, OPS+: 107, EqA: .277, WARP3: 50.7

Hmmmmmmm. I win. Colin loses. I am awesome. And oh, by the way, Hunter's career OBP is .330.

And now onto the Jets. I hope they win. Stick to the plan: show different defensive fronts, blitz various defenders on different plays, run the ball hard, don't turn it over, show some tiger-cat, etc.

Anyway, the inappropriate thing I wanted to mention came about as follows. I was on the subway this morning, and someone was reading the Post. I saw on the front page something about the Jets, az I looked closer and saw that the daughter of Jets owner Woody Johnson died. It's really a tragedy for the family, but I could do without the "let's win one for the gipper" nonsense that hopefully won't come. Anyway, az I was walking into the office and suddenly it occurred to me "OhMyGod, Woody Johnson has the worst name of all time!" I'll leave you for today with a quote (thanks imdb.com):

[Noticing Dr. Evil's spaceship on radar]
Radar Operator: Colonel, you better have a look at this radar.
Colonel: What is it, son?
Radar Operator: I don't know, sir, but it looks like a giant...
Jet Pilot: Dick. Dick, take a look out of starboard.
Co-Pilot: Oh my God, it looks like a huge...
Bird-Watching Woman: Pecker.
Bird-Watching Man: [raising binoculars] Ooh, Where?
Bird-Watching Woman: Over there. What sort of bird is that? Wait, it's not a woodpecker, it looks like someone's...
Army Sergeant: Privates. We have reports of an unidentified flying object. It has a long, smooth shaft, complete with...
Baseball Umpire: Two balls.
[looking up from game]
Baseball Umpire: What is that. It looks just like an enormous...
Chinese Teacher: Wang. pay attention.
Wang: I was distracted by that giant flying...
Musician: Willie.
Willie: Yeah?
Musician: What's that?
Willie: [squints] Well, that looks like a huge...
Colonel: Johnson.
Radar Operator: Yes, sir?
Colonel: Get on the horn to British Intelligence and let them know about this.

Basil: Did we get Dr. Evil?
Radar Operator: No, sir, he got away in that big spaceship that looks like a huge...
Teacher: Penis. The male reproductive organ. Also known as tallywhacker, schlong, or...
Friendly Dad: Wiener? Any of your kids want another wiener?
Friendly Son: Dad, what's that?
Friendly Dad: I don't know, son, but it has great big...
Peanut Vendor: Nuts. Hot, salty nuts. Who wants some?...
Peanut Vendor: Lord Almighty!
Woman: That looks just like my husband's...
Circus Barker: ONE-EYED MONSTER. Step right up and see the One-eyed Monster!
Cyclops: RARRR.
Cyclops: Hey, what's that? It looks like a...
Fan: Woody. Woody Harrelson. Could I have your autograph?
Woody: Sure. Oh, my Lord! Look at that thing!
Fan: It's so huge.
Woody: No, I've seen bigger. That's...
Dr. Evil: Just a little prick.

Megalophobia

Want to hear something weird? I have it. Megalophobia. Fear of large things. Isn't that bizarre? Now there's not a whole lot of info online, but the few people who suffer from it are affected in different ways. Some are afraid of things that can move, such as airplanes and ships and Godzilla. But I think I'm scared of some stationary things. I probably won't be able to explain it very well, but I'll give it a try. I think the best way for me to go about this is to provide examples.

Anybody every been to the Hayden Planetarium (Rose Center)? You know when they show the moon and then they zoom in so you can see the terrain detail, etc.? Well that enormous, monstrous, terrifying circle on the ceiling of the planetarium scares the bejeezus out of me. Isn't that strange? The moon itself is not scary (although I used to be scared of it; I think I mentioned that elsewhere once), but if the moon was all of a sudden a few times larger in the sky, I would be horrified.

I was on Google Maps earlier today, and I was zooming out from some place in Japan. And when I zoomed out far enough that it became apparent that it was the islands of Japan, I got this nervous butterflies feeling in my stomach and chest.

Buildings. Buildings are scary. But not when I'm at the bottom looking up at a really tall one; I mean when there's just one big one towering over a bunch of smaller ones. And only certain views of such buildings; views where it's clear that this monster just dwarfs everything around. Like a picture of the skyline of Manhattan isn't the least bit scary, but an angled view of the Empire State building from above, like from a helicopter, would be terrifying.

Now this phobia doesn't affect my life in any meaningful way. At all. In fact, I think it makes me interesting, and maybe even sorta cute in a nerdy, me-like way. Maybe I should include some pictures. I'll give it a try.

Time to Chime In

Az we finally know who will be playing in the 2009 World Series. Phillies and Yankees, blah blah blah, sucks for Mets fans, who cares? I'm over it. It's not a big deal. Really, it's not. And anyone who says it is, is a bitter human being who hates baseball. I'm NOT here to talk about that; this is not some kind of shockumentary about a Phillies/Yankees World Series from the eyes of a melancholy metropolitan fan. Again, who cares?

Really, the point of this post, as you might have guessed, is that I hate Derek Jeter. And I think I might have pinpointed the reason. I mean I sorta knew subconsciously, but I never actually articulated it as I will right now. I've tried to explain this to a few people over the last week or two, but I don't think it went over very well, az I'm gonna give it another try here.

Before I begin, I just want to say that I still think that Derek Jeter is an outstanding baseball player, and will most likely be a first-ballot hall of famer. That being said, Derek Jeter is NOT an Olympian god. He is a man, a man who is excellent at playing baseball. He is NOT the greatest, clutch-iest, defense-iest player in the history of greatness or clutch-iness or defense-yness. The only thing he is the greatest ever at is Jeterianism.

According to urbandictionary.com:

jeterian
	1. making a play like derek jeter 2. a way of playing baseball; with class and determination and unbelievable plays and swings

He is definitely classy. He definitely plays with determination. And he has definitely been involved in some unbelievable plays and has had some unbelievable swings of the bat.

He is also way worse at baseball than Alex Rodriguez. I don't want to go through their career stats; that would be misleading and unfair, because they are different types of hitters. They basically have the same batting average and basically walk the same amount, but suffice it to say that A-Rod hits with a lot more power. But here's the thing. Everybody knows this; everyone will agree that Alex Rodriguez is a better player than Derek Jeter. And, almost to a man, everyone would rather have Derek Jeter up in a big spot than A-Rod. If you had to choose between Jeter and A-Rod for your post-season roster, 99.9% of human beings would choose Derek Jeter (I'm probably not too far off with that estimate. Maybe closer to 90%, but either way, it's up there).

The main reason for this is that people want to believe in supernatural powers. The average fan wants to believe that some professional athletes who make millions of dollars have some innate ability to perform better in big spots. This ability is what separates the stars from the bums, the Jeters from the A-Rods. In short, this ability turns normal human beings into heroes. And that's what the average fan wants to believe: that their favorite players are heroes.

The ugly little secret that most analysts don't want the average fan to know is that there's no such thing as "clutch-iness." I'm sorry to be the one to spill the beans, but there is no Santa Claus, and there are no clutch players. "But wait, Professor Schmutter! What about that home run in the world series against Kim in 2001?" Umm, Derek Jeter has 224 career home runs, not a negligible amount. He just happened to hit that one in a big spot. "But Professor, what about diving into the stands for that foul pop against the Red Sox and that play at the plate on Jeremy Giambi?" Not clutch. Good baseball instincts. Everyone will agree with that. "But all those Gold Gloves!" Undeserving. Go read some stuff on teh interweb and prepare to be pwned! Test next week.

"Ok, Professor, there's no way you have an answer for this one: what about how well Jeter has performed in the playoffs as compared to the regular season? And what about how poorly A-Rod has performed in the playoffs?" said little Mikey in the 4th row, a smug, buck-toothed grin on his pimply face. His fellow 4th row-ers sniggered and pointed at me, likely making fun of my newly purchased pocket protector protector. Little do they know that I only use mechanical pencils and the protector protector is just a fashion statement.

Well, let's just take a little look-see at some stats:

Jeter: Regular Season: .317 Batting Average, .388 On-Base Percentage, .459 Slugging Percentage

Post-Season: .308 Batting Average, .381 On-Base Percentage, .477 Slugging Percentage.

Hey, how about that! Those numbers are basically exactly the same! Nothing particularly clutch-y about that.

A-Rod: Regular Season: .305 Batting Average, .390 On-Base Percentage, .576 Slugging Percentage

Post-Season: .307 Batting Average, .408 On-Base Percentage, .570 Slugging Percentage

Well fancy that! Those numbers are basically exactly the same, dadgummit!

Sure, any idiot can have a good game or a good series, or even a good entire post-season. But eventually, when you play enough games, your post-season numbers will look exactly like your regular season numbers. Why? Because there's no such thing as clutch.

"Hold on Professor. Most of your students still look at RBI and stuff, but I'm too smart for that. Go check out fangraphs.com and check their Win Probability Added. That should show you how much more valuable Jeter is than A-Rod. He's so f-ing clutch!" Ah, Curtis in the front row. Such a cool customer. He's on the right track. Kissing up and crew-cuts are such babe-magnets.

Jeter's Post-Season WPA from 2002-2009 (sorry, no data before 2002): 0.16, 0.08, -0.25, 0.06, 0.01, -0.41, 0.00. Total = -0.35.

A-Rod's Post-Season WPA since 2004 (never made the playoffs before then): 1.27, -0.12, -0.28, -0.19, 1.34. Total = 2.02. those numbers basically mean that in 2004 and 2009 A-Rod won the equivalent of one game all by his lonesome.

You see? This is my problem. There is no disputing that Jeter is a fantastic player. I just can't stand that most fans think he's the greatest thing since sliced bread. I really really hope that A-Rod continues to clobber the ball in the World Series and Jeter does his usual thing. I want everyone to realize that A-Rod is an all-time great. I guess I kinda, sorta hope the Yankees win the series; I don't see what makes the Phillies so good, and Jayson Werth is really starting to bother me. But more importantly, I want the fans to discover A-Rod as a legendary player. I think he deserves some love.

Justified!

Yes, Joe Posnanski, my hero, has given one of my old arguments justification. Remember my Derek Jeter post from like three years ago? Here's what I said:

"The Yankees won last night largely because of Jeter's play. Not, I repeat, NOT because he's Captain Intangibles. Joe Morgan, Tim McCarver, Michael Kay, and all their smelly brethren do nothing but insult their hero Jeter when they refer to him as such. As a math guy, the only thing I look for to determine a player's value is his play on the field. Jeter's numbers speak for themselves. For him to be called Captain Intangibles means that there is something lacking in his baseball skills. I want to call your attention to two plays, which fans/commentators always enjoy mentioning; the flip to Posada that Jeter made on Jeremy Giambi against the Oakland A's in the playoffs, and the play last year against the Red Sox when he fell into the stands. These were terrific plays, plain and simple. But to say that the reason the Yankees win is because Derek Jeter does things like that is just silly talk. I'm not saying that every player would be able to make those plays; I just think that he was in the right place at the right time. You cheer him because his face came away bloody. That doesn't make the play any greater than it would have been if he had come away unscathed. My point is that the Yankees win because Derek Jeter is a very good baseball player."

And today, Joe wrote in his blog:

"To me, Derek Jeter isn’t a great player because he can rise to the occasion, because he has this sixth sense out there, and because he plays brilliant defense that is so subtle it does not show up in the statistics. No, he’s a great player because he gets on base, and he hits for some power, and he steals bases at a high percentage of success, and because he is extremely durable at a tough defensive position, and, if you want to get away from stats, because his teammates seem to like and admire him enough that they credit him for much of their own success. The power of the best baseball bloggers is that they try to pierce through vagueness and wave away myth and get at the heart of things. Sometimes, they do. Sometimes, they don’t. But, to a new generation of sports fans, it makes a lot more sense than saying: “This guy’s just a winner.”"

So, I'm right. I win. Good for me.

Anyway, my real purpose in writing today is to discuss Citi Field. I finally went for the first time last night, and I am literally in awe. I couldn't be happier with the way the new ballpark looks. It's like a cross between Citizens Bank Park and Camden Yards. Wow, there are just so many things I like about it. Pictures just don't do it justice; you have to see it for yourself. I'll go through a couple of highlights:

1. Clean bathrooms. This might be the best improvement of all of them. I mean it's like going to the bathroom at an airport instead of a public park.

2. Wide hallways. It was unbelievable. I literally walked from my seat to the garbage can and bathrooms without having to navigate through a thousand people (think Camden Yards).

3. Bars. Our seats were on the Excelsior Club level, which is pretty cool. Thanks BB. And there were actually nice bars with nice stools, and well-dressed bartenders, and a decent selection of drinks.

4. Modern appearance. I love the exposed scaffolding, piping, and rafters. Reminds me of my current office. And the bridge near center field is just outstanding.

5. HD TVs in the stands. I guess the biggest drawback to seeing a game in person has always been the lack of instant replays. Now they have TVs near the seats so you get to see replays of every play! Fantastic!

6. Outdoor activities. There's this whole area in center field that has carnival type booths, and fun things to do for fans (think Citizens Bank Park or a larger scale minor league park).

7. Fancy! We popped into the Caesar's Club just to check it out. Honestly, I couldn't even tell we were at a ballpark. We watched a couple of batters on an HDTV in the club while sitting on some couches. It really felt like we were at an airport or a casino. Amazing!

I'm so thrilled that I get to go watch Mets games at this stunning new park for the next 50 years. If only I were so thrilled about the actual team... Oh well; can't have everything all the time.

A Coupla New Ones

No need for any bells and/or whistles, az I'll just jump right into it.

My wife and I were driving back from Baltimore last night, and, as is usually the case, I went to the local lanes on the Jersey Turnpike when they split up. I go to the local lanes because all the moronic drivers out there (you know who you are) go to the express lanes, which leaves the local lanes nearly empty. The only drawbacks are the trucks, of which there are very few at certain hours, and the few miles of two-line driving. Az what happened during said miles of two-lane driving? Well, there was one car in each lane in front of me, each cruising at around 66 mph (speed limit is 65). And that was it; the car in the left lane was about six feet ahead of the car in the right lane, az there was no room to split the uprights. I must have followed them for about 5 miles getting more and more worked up. They both completely ignored my flashing lights and my horn; they probably had a good laugh over a few PBRs when they got back to their trailor homes and their trashy lumberjacking husbands. Now, I wasn't complaining terribly much, considering that I had set the over/under on our arrival at the GWB tolls at 11:07, and my wife, foolishly trusting in my driving skills, took the under, but it was the principal of the issue (we arrived at 11:13 in case you're keeping score)! It's just not cool to drive the speed limit in the left lane and then completely ignore the other drivers.

Now this one was just a funny thing I saw when I was getting a drink today. I noticed a new water product in the fridge at Duane Reade; it was called Water Street, and it had subway-line circles with the letters VH2O below the name. It's Vapor-distilled water, hence the "V." Okay, that's a pretty cool idea. It's New York, the subways, I get it. But there were SO many problems with the VH2O, that it was almost laughable. In fact, it WAS laughable. Here were the issues:

1. There are no H and O lines in the New York City subway system (in fact, only H, I, K, O, P, U, X, and Y are not in use (or in the works, like T)).

2. The 2 was correctly red, and the H and O were green and yellow, respectively, which is fine because they don't exist. But the V was blue! The V train exists! Why not make it orange like the actual V train?!

3. There IS no Water Street stop on any of the New York City subways.

The point is that it's a cute idea, but it was put into effect so poorly that I wouldn't be surprised if only tourists bought it. Hey, you never know; tourists might be their target market. No self-respecting New Yorker should ever be caught dead drinking one of those.

OMG No!

Before I forget this absolute insanity, it needs to be written down. I'm listening to Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio. Why? Because of stuff like this. He's talking about Derek Jeter getting caught stealing 3rd base last night with nobody out, and he says something like "Derek Jeter is the ____-iest player of the last 20 years, and nobody says that it's so bad to make the first out of the inning at 3rd base; only the last out."

Firstly, no, everyone says that making the first or last out of an inning at 3rd base is a cardinal sin of baseball. Anyway, then he gets corrected, that it is indeed conventional wisdom that you shouldn't make the first out at 3rd base, to which Cowherd responds "Oh, come on. Who says you shouldn't make the first out at 3rd base? There was nothing wrong with what Derek Jeter did last night. Who cares what anyone says? You're Derek Jeter; you do whatever you want." And furthermore, he continues to dig himself into a deeper hole, "...not only is it okay to steal 3rd with no outs, it's the BEST time to steal! Because nobody expects it!"

Fine. I guess it's human nature to not want to admit one's mistakes, especially in front of an audience of potentially hundreds of thousands. But the fact that he's saying it's okay because it was Derek Jeter just blows my mind. And then he continues to make even more ridiculous assertions! It's just insanity. Chaos even!

Colin, you are a pillar, nay, a bastion of wrongness. Derek Jeter, you are a fine baseball player. I don't care if you were tagged out or not. If you want to steal 3rd base with nobody out, you better be safe.

Just Throw Strikes

Okay, here's the situation. Mets are down to the Yankees 3-2 in the top of the 9th inning. The Yankees have the bases loaded thanks in part to another dropped pop-up, and there are two outs. The Yankees brought in Mariano Rivera with two outs in the 8th inning with two men on, and after fouling off several tough pitches in a row, Omir Santos watched a ball go right down the middle. Obviously. Anyway, because the Yankees want Rivera to pitch the 9th inning, they allow him to bat. Again, to recap, bases are loaded, Mets are down by one run, two outs in the top of the 9th inning. The Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez is facing Mariano Rivera, a man who has appeared in a batters box six times in his entire career. Now the obvious play is to throw three straight fastballs right down the middle. Odds are that Rivera, with all of his batting experience, will strike out or hit the ball weakly somewhere. But no, Frankie decides he's going to be cute and starts off throwing two balls. Now Rivera's not swinging because he's probably afraid he's going to hurt himself. I'm sure the Yankees would have been content to just have him watch three strikes go by and then go pitch. Then Frankie "fights" his way back to 2-2 and then throws two more balls. He walked the opposing pitcher with the bases loaded. He forced a run in. He actually allowed a pitcher with six career plate appearances to walk. Why on earth would you ever throw any balls to a relief pitcher in the American League? It's actually unconscionable. It's the most absurdly horrible thing I've ever seen a pitcher do. Now it probably won't matter in the least because Rivera will probably shut the Mets down in the 9th inning anyway, but that's not the point! Just threw three straight strikes down the middle and have done! That's it. I'm done. Enough. I'm disgusted.

Oh, and thanks for a correction in one of the comments. Rivera actually had just two plate appearances before today.

You Need to Let Me Know!

The late, great Mitchell Lee Hedberg zt"l once intoned: "I was gonna get a candy bar; the button I was supposed to push was "HH", so I went to the side, I found the "H" button, I pushed it twice. Fuckin' potato chips came out, man! Turns out they had a "HH" button. You need to let me know. I'm not familiar with the concept of "HH". I did not learn my AA-BB-CC's. God god, dammit dammit."

Now this, as many of you would agree, is not an incredibly funny joke, nor is it particularly well delivered. But, the esteemed Mr. Hedberg's quotation is not without its merits.

Before I continue, let me just say that I have returned to a position where I will have significantly more downtime with which I can continue writing. Az for those of you who have been breathlessly waiting for my inevitable return, I bid you welcome.

Anyway, the point is that people are allowed to do whatever they want, but they should at least let us know what they're planning. There's totally allowed to be an HH button on the candy machine, just put a big ol' sign on there telling us NOT to hit the H button twice. You follow me? I'll give you a coupla examples:

One day two weeks ago I decided to drive down to work. On an average morning at about 8:15, it should take about 35-40 minutes to get from the RJC at 237th Street and Independence Avenue to West 14th Street and 9th Avenue. Az at about 8:31 I'm listening to the traffic report to see if there are any surprises on the Henry Hudson Parkway. Sounds like all's clear, az I stick with it. And then traffic starts to slow down. Traffic report still mentions nothing, az when I finally, 45 minutes later, get to around 50th Street, I see a three-car accident being cleared up. Now listen. It's fine if there's an accident; it happens, there's nothing you can do about it, right? But is it so difficult to just spend five seconds of the traffic report to tell us? It's SO easy. I mean what's the point of listening to the traffic report if they're going to ignore the ONE thing you need to hear about? So - incredibly - frustrating.

Here's another. Last night I was watching So You Think You Can Dance at my apartment, and we were about an hour behind because of working out and preparing for dinner. Az the DVR helped us catch up, az we finished the show only 10-15 minutes after the show actually ended. Meanwhile, I missed the Mets' 11-0 win over the Cardinals, az I wanted to see highlights on SportsCenter or Baseball Tonight on ESPN, but the College World Series was on, az I checked out the channel listings and saw that SportsCenter was on at 11. Fine. 11:00 rolls around, and it had a few extra minutes of College World Series. No biggie; it happens all the time with these live events. Az now I'm breathlessly awaiting SportsCenter and what comes on? Freakin' NBA Draft Preview! WTF?! Az now I'm thinking, "ok, it's just for the first few minutes of SportsCenter, and then they'll get back to all the baseball highlights," but NO, it went the full freakin' hour. And then, to turn insult to injury, they spent the first half hour of SportsCenter showing MORE NBA Draft coverage (didn't they just have an hour devoted to it??? WTF?!?!?!?!), MORE College World Series, and then a long segment on the US soccer team beating the Spanish. Seriously, WHO THE F**K CARES about the College World Series and international soccer? I mean yes, some people do care, but those segments should be relegated to later on in the hour. Put the real, professional American sports first. Fine. I get it. The point is that the channel listings showed that SportsCenter was on from 11-12, and yet they broadcasted the NBA Draft preview. It's fine if you want to have such a preview, but you have to let us know that you're doing it! And it's not like it was breaking news and they didn't have time to inform the cable company to change their listing. The NBA Draft has been on the schedule for a year! It's so easy. All you have to do is tell us what you're planning.

Sorry if I'm a bit rusty; it's been a while. At least I have the semi-colon stuff still rollin'.

Fluke

I'm not actually back, I just heard some good stuff on the radio a couple of days ago. There's all this jazz going on about Citigroup owning the naming rights to the new Mets ballpark, and how they have no right to spend $400,000,000 in sponsorship money if they got bailed out by the government. Anyway, that was just the backdrop for the fun discussion. Michael Kay was saying that Citi Field is the perfect name for the stadium. He's had enough of these corporate sounding names like "Minute Maid Park" or "US Cellular Field." He said that when the San Francisco Giants (who used to be the New York Giants and played at the Polo Grounds) were building a new park, the owner called up Ralph Lauren to ask him to sponsor the stadium so that they could call it the Polo Grounds (get it? Ralph Lauren? Polo?). Anyway, the deal fell through, but it was a great idea. Then he was saying that the Jets and Giants were trying to get Jet Blue to sponsor their new stadium an the Meadowlands. Wouldn't that be awesome? Jet Blue Stadium? I was in shock at how amazing an idea that was. Whatever, just thought I'd share.

The Windy City

Az I just got back from my first business trip in my life (by "just got back" I mean about a month ago. Sorry guys, I was lazy and I had a free trial of Rail Baron on my office computer. Now that it expired I'll have to find other ways to occupy myself during my minimal down-time). The Company sent me out to the Chicago office for a couple of days of training, so I left New York early on Monday morning and stayed in Chicago through Wednesday evening. I want to devote this space to my reflections on that city.

Now, I've never actually stayed at a hotel in New York because... well... I live here, so I couldn't really compare my hotel experience in Chicago to anything here. I did rather enjoy the king-size bed and wide-screen TV, however. I was a bit curious why they went through the trouble of putting those TVs in the rooms but didn't go all the way and get HD service. And the shower left a bit to be desired, but what can you do; you can't have it all.

Anyway, since I was at the office all day I didn't really have a chance to do much sight-seeing; I basically stayed around downtown Chicago the entire time. One thing I noticed was that compared to New York the streets are very clean. This is something I noticed the first time I was in Chicago four years ago for a wedding, but that experience was a bit different because it was a Saturday night; downtown is essentially EMPTY on Saturday night. I was like "where are all the people? I thought this was a big city..." There was no lack of people this time, which is what made the clean streets all the more impressive.

Another thing I found impressive was the fact that every street downtown is a big street. Midtown Manhattan has a few big streets: every avenue, 34th street, 42nd street, etc. Otherwise, every street is a side street. Downtown Chicago has no side streets; every street is a major thoroughfare.

Now here's where things start to make less sense. There are places in New York that have subway tracks above ground. Those places tend to be not-so-good neighborhoods, e.g. 125th street, south Bronx, etc. But downtown Chicago has the elevated train running right through it. It was very strange to see fancy stores and nice restaurants and bars right next to elevated subway tracks.

Three words: Cops on Segways!

Now, as everyone knows, my favorite movie is The Matrix. The movie was actually filmed in Sydney, Australia, but the city is supposed to be Chicago. Az after work on the second day, I walked around downtown to see a couple of sights. I was very excited to find that my hotel was very close to the intersection of Wabash and Lake Streets. In the movie, Tank tells Neo that there is an exit from the Matrix at Wabash and Lake, so that was pretty cool. I almost walked to the Adams Street bridge, which is where Neo first gets picked up by Trinity and the others, but it was a bit far. Anyway, you bet your Segway I took a picture of the Wabash and Lake street signs.

Now for something completely unrelated to Chicago. It was so long ago that I read this, but it was probably in either The Hardball Times, or Baseball Prospectus, or Joe Posnanski. I read in one of those places that because of how Andy Marte is working out, teams should be wary when they trade for prospects from the Atlanta Braves. Marte, who was once a highly touted prospect in the Braves' system, was traded to the Cleveland Indians, and he has been bounced between the Major and Minor Leagues for the past couple of seasons. Anyway, that innocent statement got me thinking: wouldn't it be possible for a team to create a fake prospect? Think about it. I'm John Schuerholz, fromer Braves general manager, and I want to create some fake value. So I take one of my young players in the low Minor Leagues and I make a deal with him. I tell him "listen, you and I both know that your career is going nowhere, but I have an idea that's going to make you a rich man." I tell him that I'm going to pay a few of our opponents' pitchers to tip their pitches, i.e. make it known to our batter what he's going to throw. That will artificially inflate our man's stats and make him a better prospect. Other franchises will start to look at him and perhaps make us an attractive offer to trade for him. That team might decide to pay him much more than he's worth based on his now inflated Minor League numbers. So he gets rich, we get an actual good player or two, and all that's left is just another failed prospect. Seriously, take a look at Marte's Minor League stats:

In four full Minor League seasons from rookie ball through AAA, Marte OPSed .828, .844, .910, and .878. In those four seasons he walked 41, 67, 60, and 64 times. In his two Minor League seasons with Cleveland, he OPSed .773, and .766, and walked just 34 and 21 times. Wha happen?

Mmmmm, I can just smell my first baseball mystery novel. That thing would sell like hot Segways.

Back in the Swing

Today is my fifth day at my new job, and things are pretty busy, which is why I have had little chance to post. I mentioned in a recent post that things would slow down for a while, but they'll pick up eventually.

Anyway, I have a bunch of things to discuss. I'll start off with the non-baseball-related jazz so as to not alienate the vast majority of you. I'll begin with the story of my first day of vacation two Mondays ago. Some of you have heard this story before, but it needs to be available in print, at least for posterity. So I was driving to the East Side on Sunday morning so I could pick up my mom. I was playing softball against my brother, and his wife and my eight month old nephew were gonna come too, az my mom wanted to join the party. On the way home my brother called to tell me that the baby was sick so he and his mother were going to stay home. Fine. Anyway, while I was driving down the Harlem River Drive, I noticed that something just didn't feel right with the car. I exited and pulled over and inspected my tires. Yep, my front passenger's side tire was definitely not going to make it through the day. Az I drove home very slowly and convinced my mother that she needn't go to the game because the baby wasn't going anyway. And then I even learned that my brother had to stay home with the sick baby too, and Mom definitely didn't need to come watch just me. But now I had to carry all the softball equipment, including the bats, balls, catcher's mask, and my glove, by myself. Combining that with the threat of imminent rain made for a very unpleasant 45 minute walk. Anyway, the weather held up and we won our game, so that was nice. I had the others take the equipment back up to the Heights for me and I went back home. I figured I could run errands and spend the night at home and then bring the car in for service early in the morning. Az I traveled around the city like a normal human being for a day; I walked over to my brother's apartment to borrow a book and then grabbed the 6 at 77th and Lex. I went down to the village for a bit of shopping and then back up to 96th street to rent some DVDs. Then I walked down to 86th to buy some shorts at Modell's and then went home. Now we get to the annoying part. I got up at 7:00 to bring my car to Paragon Acura in Queens. I got there and they asked me if I had an appointment. I told them I never needed an appointment before, so the surly gentleman told me they changed their policy recently. Fine. After a bit of needling I convinced them to take my car. Then the same surly gentleman tried to sell me four new tires. I agreed with him that I needed three new ones, but the fourth had just been replaced about eight months ago. He sheepishly consented and he said my car would be ready by 2:00. Then I took the subway back home and napped for an hour and a half or so. We had a family bris at 11:30, so I went with my grandmother and met my brother there. We stayed for about an hour and then I went to the West Side to meet a friend for lunch. I got a call at 1:30 from Paragon, and they told me that they couldn't find the wheel-lock key for my tires (when I first got the car I splurged a bit. Wheel locks are special bolts that you put on each wheel that prevent them from being stolen. You need a special key to attach to your wrench to be able to remove the bolts). I told them it was either in my trunk with the spare tire or in the pocket between the two front seats. The service guy insisted that he could not find it; he was even looking for it while he was on the phone with me. So I told him I could get there in half an hour; az I headed over and followed the service guy to the back. Needless to say, I found the key in no more than ten seconds; it was right where I said it would be, in the pocket between the front seats. By this time they had taken my car off the rack because they couldn't do anything with it, so they said I had to wait until they put it back up; I should expect to wait until at least 5:30. It was 2:30 and I was stuck on Northern Boulevard. There's NOTHING there except for car dealerships, az I gave them a piece of my mind and took the subway back home again. When I finally came back at half past five they actually expected me to pay full price for the service. I told them in no uncertain terms that I pay top dollar for their respect and competence, and if they want to keep my business they'll treat me like a human being and waive the service fee. So I ended up with three brand new tires for the low low price of $747.46. Anyway, that was quite a poor start to my vacation.

Moving right along, last Wednesday I stayed at work for the first time until 7:00 pm. And you know what? The concept of staying at work late is something I find abhorrent, but in practice it's really quite pleasant. Seriously, the instant the clock strikes five and I no longer have to be there it's as if a load has been lifted from my shoulders and I can work more freely. There are fewer people around, nobody calls me, and I can work at my own pace with no distractions. Now if only I could avoid getting to work at 8:45...
On the fourth of July I went shopping at an outlet mall in Long Island. I had a coupon for Lids, a hat store, so I went in to check out their inventory. The first thing I noticed was that the store was divided up; along the right wall were the white hats and along the opposite wall were the black hats. And I don't mean the color of the hats; I mean the hats along the right wall were for white customers and the others were for the black customers. The white hats are the ones with curvy brims, just one price tag, and they are usually fairly empty with small logos. The black hats start off a size larger, have flat brims, and have very large logos and patterns. I didn't have a problem with it; I just found it noteworthy.
Okay, that's all the non-baseball content for today. Those of you who appreciate my sport or even those of you who think David Wright and Grady Sizemore are cute are invited to read on (all stats are through Sunday, July 6th).

I had read last week that Grady Sizemore, the center fielder for the Cleveland Indians, was leading the American League in home runs. This surprised me because one doesn't really think of Mr. Sizemore as a home run hitter. Indeed, PECOTA projected Sizemore to hit .277/.367/.490, with 25 HR, 90 RBI, and 20 SB. PECOTA nailed the batting average and on-base percentage (Sizemore is actually hitting .269/.372), but were way off on the slugging percentage. Sizemore, to this point, is slugging .541 and is on pace to hit 36 HR and steal 33 bases. When I first saw those stats, I was astonished at how similar they looked to Carlos Beltran's stats from two years ago. In 2006, Beltran hit .276/.353/.525, with 33 HR, 112 RBI, and 23 SB. I always thought he'd be more of a prototypical leadoff hitter with a bit of extra pop, but he's actually turning into Carlos Beltran. Another words, if Cleveland wants to make better use of Sizemore's skill set, they better move him to the middle of the lineup.

Az it looks like the Mets are starting to hit a little bit better, and we're a drop over the halfway point of the season, around where you'd expect the All-Star break to be. So I went ahead and looked at some stats, and what really stuck out for me was David Wright. I know I wrote about him recently, but I couldn't shake the nagging feeling that his numbers look similar to his first half from last year. A quick scan of the stats confirmed my suspicions. Through 86 games last year, Wright hit .292/.373/.506, with 16 HR, 51 RBI, and 18 SB. This year, through 87 games Wright has hit .286/.382/.501, with 16 HR, 66 RBI, and 9 SB. He has exactly the same amount of hits as he did in first half last year (97), one less single (58 to 59), and the same amount of doubles (21). If he can duplicate his second half from last year, then he'll be a top MVP candidate again, and then we'll see who should have been an all-star.

A Really Good Day

And no, this has nothing to do with women.

So the early part of the day went pretty much as expected. The subway was the subway, work was work, etc. But then my co-workers took me out for lunch as sort of a congratulations-you-got-a-new-job/good-riddance-to-bad-rubbish "celebration." That really was very nice. We (3 Jews (one observant (me)), a Greek, an Asian, and an Italian) went to Taam Tov for some good, old-fashioned Bukharian food. Perfect. Then we walked off our meal with a pleasant stroll over to Bryant Park and a quick trip to the new Bank of America headquarters on 6th Avenue between 42nd and 43rd streets (somehow they scored the address "One Bryant Park." I guess it's all about who you know).

Anyway, I finished up work after lunch and then walked to the Apple Store on 5th Avenue and 58th Street. I didn't know exactly where it was az I looked it up online. I thought "hmm, that looks like FAO Schwartz... Did FAO Schwartz become the Apple Store?" So I walk over there and then I realized that the Apple Store is UNDER the plaza in front of FAO Schwartz. I have never been to such a store in my life. I dunno if any of you have been there, but it's very difficult to explain it; you have to see it for yourself. It's one gigantic room of Apple products (iphones, ipods, macbook airs, etc.), and it's full of people trying them out. Seriously, I think if you got rid of all the people the place would look empty. I mean almost none of the space was taken up by the product displays; it was mostly just people. And there were A LOT of people. Here's how I could tell it was a high-class place. There were two people standing at the entrance (under the enormous Apple logo) whose sole purpose was to drop customers' umbrellas into a device that made them come out in bags so they wouldn't get everything wet. What a place! Anyway, I didn't buy anything, but I did order a refurbished 4 GB Nano online for $99. I figure either I'll switch back to AT&T after another year and just buy an iphone, or my new company will supply me with a blackberry rendering an iphone redundant, so I think the refurb Nano is a good stop-gap.

I left the Apple Store and walked to Columbus Circle to catch the A-train uptown. I had to hurry because my student's math final is today (Thursday), and we had a lot to cover. I got back to my apartment, changed my clothes, wolfed down a cinnamon bun (dinner of champions), ordered the refurb Nano online, checked my DVR to make sure So You Think You Can Dance was being recorded, and high-tailed it up to Riverdale. Six hours later and we were done with Trigonometry, Limits, and introductory Calculus. Gotta give the kid props for sticking with me for that long; I hope he does well. Seriously, can you believe that I sat down and did math for six hours? I didn't even notice; the time just flew by. A lot of you will assert that I could do it because I was getting paid an obscene amount of money, but I can safely say that I would have done it for a quarter the price (not gonna do it for free; my time is still valuable). Math is just that fun for me.

When I finally arrived back at my apartment at almost 1:00 am, a Cap'n Munch sandwich from Chickie's was waiting for me. It was a bit soggy and essentially at room temperature, but it was still delicious. Meanwhile, the Mets were down 4-3 to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the ninth inning, and no one can hit Francisco Rodriguez these days. But a hit by Jose Reyes, a wild pitch from K-Rod, and another hit by David Wright, and the Mets had tied it up. Damion Easley's home run in the 10th won it, and a perfect tenth inning from Billy Wagner shut the door. I couldn't be happier with how the day went.

Side note completely unrelated to yesterday's events: ESPN has recently hired a couple of castoffs from other sports ventures: Warner Wolf ("Let's go to the videoTAPE!") and Rick Reilly. Now I never really had any strong feelings about Rick Reilly; I never really read Sports Illustrated. I wasn't too impressed with his work, but whatever, who cares? I still don't read his stuff on ESPN. But I actually do get to hear from Warner Wolf every day because he has a few 30-second spots on Mike and Mike in the Morning between 9 and 10 am. And my conclusion: he is dumb. I fully respect ESPN for getting these guys because they are big names and appeal to sports fans of all ages, but some things I won't tolerate. I have zero doubt that Warner Wolf knows a million times more about sports than I do, but that doesn't mean he's allowed to tell us what athletes are thinking. Here's the basic gist of what he said this morning:

"A recent poll was taken of a bunch of Major League Baseball players, and they were asked who they think is the most over-rated player in the game. The top-five vote-getters were Derek Jeter, Barry Zito, J.D. Drew, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis. It comes as no surprise that four of those guys play for the Yankees or Red Sox. Maybe the voters were just JEALOUS. Four of those guys are also some of the highest paid players in the game! Warner Wolf, 1050, ESPN New York..."

No no no no no no no no no no no no and no. Does he really think that players are calling those guys over-rated because they're jealous of how much money they're making?! Now I'm certainly not arrogant enough to say what those guys are thinking, but I think it makes a lot more sense to say that those voters think those five players are over-rated precisely BECAUSE they're making so much money. As far as I'm concerned, getting paid too much money for what you're worth is exactly what it means to be over-rated. Come on Warner; you're not senile yet. Think a little bit.

Another side note completely unrelated to anything previously said with the exception of a Mike-and-Mike shoutout: On the radio they have various hosts do commercials for different products. Mike and Mike do commercials for Olevia HD-TVs and Colin Cowherd (another one of those guys ESPN employs to appeal to a certain kind of sports fan), who I hate, does commercials for Vizio HD-TVs. Now I know absolutely nothing about the relative quality of Olevia TVs compared to Vizio TVs, but what I DO know is that I would never ever buy a Vizio instead of an Olevia, because I love Mike and Mike and I hate Colin Cowherd. There's gotta be some kind of marketing analysis behind all this.

Just Play

Okay, seriously. Can we just get over it already? Willie Randolph was fired as manager of the Mets. Honestly, who cares? I'm not upset that the Mets fired the manager, but I AM upset that we're gonna be hearing about it on the radio and on TV and reading about it in the newspaper and online. I'd rather just hear/read/watch actual baseball. People are going absolutely bonkers about this, "oh, Willie Randolph is such a nice man... how can the bad old Mets do this to a New York legend?" And even the people who are in favor of the firing are taking it way too seriously. Is Willie putting on his second baseman's glove and taking the field every day? Is he picking up a bat and stepping into the batter's box to face the opposing pitcher? No and no. The identity of the manager has a negligible effect on the performance of his team. A manager can't make bad players into good players no matter how good a manager he is. I'm so fed up with this. I want the players, the fans, and especially the media to wash their hands of this whole situation so we can get back to actual real baseball. Mets are playing the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim tonight, and I might even mute the sound so I won't have to hear all the commentators and announcers talk about "Willie this" and "Willie that." Just let them play.

What's Wrong with Wright?

Wow, that title had all four words starting with "W." That's some serious alliteration right there.

Anyway, we're now 68 games into the 2008 baseball season and the Mets are pretty much stuck in neutral. Two posts ago I looked at each player to try to determine what was going on, and I mentioned that David Wright was getting a bit unlucky:

"Am I concerned? Nope. David's really been hitting the ball hard all year. As I expected, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is around 40 points below what it should be. His Line-Drive percentage is a robust 23.5%, which should translate to a .355 BABIP, but his is sitting at .310 currently. It's only a matter of time until those line drives start falling in for hits and his stats rise accordingly."

But now I want to look at David Wright more in depth. Let's examine his secondary stats and compare them to his numbers from last season:

Let's start with his slash stats: Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage/OPS
2007: .325/.416/.546/.963
2008: .276/.373/.485/.858
Those stats are way down this year.

And now his counting stats:
2007: 30 HR, 107 RBI, 113 Runs, 34 SB, 42 Doubles, 94 Walks, 115 Ks
2008 (pace): 29 HR, 119 RBI, 100 Runs, 19 SB, 43 Doubles, 100 Walks, 114 Ks.
Now those look almost identical! Looks like he's just hitting fewer singles.

Let's go deeper: Walk Percentage/Strikeout Percentage/Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio
2007: 13.5% / 19.0% / 0.82
2008: 13.5% / 17.9% / 0.88
So this is starting to look fishy. He's walking just as often and he's striking out less. Looks like the progression of a player who is getting better at judging the strike zone. So why are his stats down?

Let's keep going: Ground Ball Percentage/Fly Ball Percentage/Ground Ball-to-Fly Ball Ratio/Home Runs per Fly Ball Percentage/Line Drive Percentage/Batting Average on Balls in Play
2007: 39.3% / 37.5% / 1.05 / 16.1% / 23.2% / .362
2008: 38.4% / 40.6% / 0.95 / 13.2% / 21.0% / .298
Okay, so ground balls are down and fly balls are up; that's usually a good sign. But line drive percentage is down, and home run percentage is WAY down. And as I said last time, his actual batting average on balls in play is .32 points below what it should be, which accounts for his low overall batting average.

One step further: Swing percentage at pitches outside the strike zone/swing percentage at pitches in the strike zone/overall percentage of pitches swung at/contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone/contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone/overall contact percentage
2007: 21.66% / 64.83% / 42.54% / 66.24% / 88.76% / 82.84%
2008: 20.79% / 68.69% / 44.40% / 62.20% / 90.44% / 83.74%
So he's swinging at more balls overall, which is fine because he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and more pitches in. And he's making more overall contact, which is also fine because he's making contact more often on pitches in the strike zone.

Conclusion: I have no freakin' clue why his numbers aren't up to par. All signs are pointing to Wright's continued development in terms of reading the strike zone. He's walking more than last year; he's striking out less often, he's hitting more fly balls, and he's swinging at better pitches. The only thing that looks wrong is his line drive percentage. Considering that he's swinging at better pitches I expect that number to change. Besides, he usually picks it up in the second half. I'm prepared to submit that David Wright is just getting unlucky. His luck is bound to turn around sooner or later.

Special thanks to fangraphs.com for advanced statistics.

Note: According to the fantastic website hittrackeronline.com, of David Wright's 31 home runs last year, twelve of them were "just enough," tied for third most in the NL. "Just enough" means that it cleared the fence by less than ten feet. Also, he led the NL in "lucky" home runs with ten, two more than the next most. A "lucky" home run would not have been a home run without help from the weather or other conditions (Colorado, for example). Az 22 of his 31 home runs could easily have been outs were it not for a bit of outside help. Some might say that it's a skill to use the conditions to your advantage. Others will posit that there were probably a bunch of fly balls that fell just short of the wall and that the "lucky" and "just enough" home runs have evened out with the ones that didn't make it over the fence. Either way, Wright might not be quite the impressive slugger that he appears. Maybe those lucky ones have just not been quite enough this year. Hopefully everything will even out as the year goes on and some of those outs will turn into home runs.