Megalophobia

Want to hear something weird? I have it. Megalophobia. Fear of large things. Isn't that bizarre? Now there's not a whole lot of info online, but the few people who suffer from it are affected in different ways. Some are afraid of things that can move, such as airplanes and ships and Godzilla. But I think I'm scared of some stationary things. I probably won't be able to explain it very well, but I'll give it a try. I think the best way for me to go about this is to provide examples.

Anybody every been to the Hayden Planetarium (Rose Center)? You know when they show the moon and then they zoom in so you can see the terrain detail, etc.? Well that enormous, monstrous, terrifying circle on the ceiling of the planetarium scares the bejeezus out of me. Isn't that strange? The moon itself is not scary (although I used to be scared of it; I think I mentioned that elsewhere once), but if the moon was all of a sudden a few times larger in the sky, I would be horrified.

I was on Google Maps earlier today, and I was zooming out from some place in Japan. And when I zoomed out far enough that it became apparent that it was the islands of Japan, I got this nervous butterflies feeling in my stomach and chest.

Buildings. Buildings are scary. But not when I'm at the bottom looking up at a really tall one; I mean when there's just one big one towering over a bunch of smaller ones. And only certain views of such buildings; views where it's clear that this monster just dwarfs everything around. Like a picture of the skyline of Manhattan isn't the least bit scary, but an angled view of the Empire State building from above, like from a helicopter, would be terrifying.

Now this phobia doesn't affect my life in any meaningful way. At all. In fact, I think it makes me interesting, and maybe even sorta cute in a nerdy, me-like way. Maybe I should include some pictures. I'll give it a try.

Time to Chime In

Az we finally know who will be playing in the 2009 World Series. Phillies and Yankees, blah blah blah, sucks for Mets fans, who cares? I'm over it. It's not a big deal. Really, it's not. And anyone who says it is, is a bitter human being who hates baseball. I'm NOT here to talk about that; this is not some kind of shockumentary about a Phillies/Yankees World Series from the eyes of a melancholy metropolitan fan. Again, who cares?

Really, the point of this post, as you might have guessed, is that I hate Derek Jeter. And I think I might have pinpointed the reason. I mean I sorta knew subconsciously, but I never actually articulated it as I will right now. I've tried to explain this to a few people over the last week or two, but I don't think it went over very well, az I'm gonna give it another try here.

Before I begin, I just want to say that I still think that Derek Jeter is an outstanding baseball player, and will most likely be a first-ballot hall of famer. That being said, Derek Jeter is NOT an Olympian god. He is a man, a man who is excellent at playing baseball. He is NOT the greatest, clutch-iest, defense-iest player in the history of greatness or clutch-iness or defense-yness. The only thing he is the greatest ever at is Jeterianism.

According to urbandictionary.com:

jeterian
	1. making a play like derek jeter 2. a way of playing baseball; with class and determination and unbelievable plays and swings

He is definitely classy. He definitely plays with determination. And he has definitely been involved in some unbelievable plays and has had some unbelievable swings of the bat.

He is also way worse at baseball than Alex Rodriguez. I don't want to go through their career stats; that would be misleading and unfair, because they are different types of hitters. They basically have the same batting average and basically walk the same amount, but suffice it to say that A-Rod hits with a lot more power. But here's the thing. Everybody knows this; everyone will agree that Alex Rodriguez is a better player than Derek Jeter. And, almost to a man, everyone would rather have Derek Jeter up in a big spot than A-Rod. If you had to choose between Jeter and A-Rod for your post-season roster, 99.9% of human beings would choose Derek Jeter (I'm probably not too far off with that estimate. Maybe closer to 90%, but either way, it's up there).

The main reason for this is that people want to believe in supernatural powers. The average fan wants to believe that some professional athletes who make millions of dollars have some innate ability to perform better in big spots. This ability is what separates the stars from the bums, the Jeters from the A-Rods. In short, this ability turns normal human beings into heroes. And that's what the average fan wants to believe: that their favorite players are heroes.

The ugly little secret that most analysts don't want the average fan to know is that there's no such thing as "clutch-iness." I'm sorry to be the one to spill the beans, but there is no Santa Claus, and there are no clutch players. "But wait, Professor Schmutter! What about that home run in the world series against Kim in 2001?" Umm, Derek Jeter has 224 career home runs, not a negligible amount. He just happened to hit that one in a big spot. "But Professor, what about diving into the stands for that foul pop against the Red Sox and that play at the plate on Jeremy Giambi?" Not clutch. Good baseball instincts. Everyone will agree with that. "But all those Gold Gloves!" Undeserving. Go read some stuff on teh interweb and prepare to be pwned! Test next week.

"Ok, Professor, there's no way you have an answer for this one: what about how well Jeter has performed in the playoffs as compared to the regular season? And what about how poorly A-Rod has performed in the playoffs?" said little Mikey in the 4th row, a smug, buck-toothed grin on his pimply face. His fellow 4th row-ers sniggered and pointed at me, likely making fun of my newly purchased pocket protector protector. Little do they know that I only use mechanical pencils and the protector protector is just a fashion statement.

Well, let's just take a little look-see at some stats:

Jeter: Regular Season: .317 Batting Average, .388 On-Base Percentage, .459 Slugging Percentage

Post-Season: .308 Batting Average, .381 On-Base Percentage, .477 Slugging Percentage.

Hey, how about that! Those numbers are basically exactly the same! Nothing particularly clutch-y about that.

A-Rod: Regular Season: .305 Batting Average, .390 On-Base Percentage, .576 Slugging Percentage

Post-Season: .307 Batting Average, .408 On-Base Percentage, .570 Slugging Percentage

Well fancy that! Those numbers are basically exactly the same, dadgummit!

Sure, any idiot can have a good game or a good series, or even a good entire post-season. But eventually, when you play enough games, your post-season numbers will look exactly like your regular season numbers. Why? Because there's no such thing as clutch.

"Hold on Professor. Most of your students still look at RBI and stuff, but I'm too smart for that. Go check out fangraphs.com and check their Win Probability Added. That should show you how much more valuable Jeter is than A-Rod. He's so f-ing clutch!" Ah, Curtis in the front row. Such a cool customer. He's on the right track. Kissing up and crew-cuts are such babe-magnets.

Jeter's Post-Season WPA from 2002-2009 (sorry, no data before 2002): 0.16, 0.08, -0.25, 0.06, 0.01, -0.41, 0.00. Total = -0.35.

A-Rod's Post-Season WPA since 2004 (never made the playoffs before then): 1.27, -0.12, -0.28, -0.19, 1.34. Total = 2.02. those numbers basically mean that in 2004 and 2009 A-Rod won the equivalent of one game all by his lonesome.

You see? This is my problem. There is no disputing that Jeter is a fantastic player. I just can't stand that most fans think he's the greatest thing since sliced bread. I really really hope that A-Rod continues to clobber the ball in the World Series and Jeter does his usual thing. I want everyone to realize that A-Rod is an all-time great. I guess I kinda, sorta hope the Yankees win the series; I don't see what makes the Phillies so good, and Jayson Werth is really starting to bother me. But more importantly, I want the fans to discover A-Rod as a legendary player. I think he deserves some love.

Justified!

Yes, Joe Posnanski, my hero, has given one of my old arguments justification. Remember my Derek Jeter post from like three years ago? Here's what I said:

"The Yankees won last night largely because of Jeter's play. Not, I repeat, NOT because he's Captain Intangibles. Joe Morgan, Tim McCarver, Michael Kay, and all their smelly brethren do nothing but insult their hero Jeter when they refer to him as such. As a math guy, the only thing I look for to determine a player's value is his play on the field. Jeter's numbers speak for themselves. For him to be called Captain Intangibles means that there is something lacking in his baseball skills. I want to call your attention to two plays, which fans/commentators always enjoy mentioning; the flip to Posada that Jeter made on Jeremy Giambi against the Oakland A's in the playoffs, and the play last year against the Red Sox when he fell into the stands. These were terrific plays, plain and simple. But to say that the reason the Yankees win is because Derek Jeter does things like that is just silly talk. I'm not saying that every player would be able to make those plays; I just think that he was in the right place at the right time. You cheer him because his face came away bloody. That doesn't make the play any greater than it would have been if he had come away unscathed. My point is that the Yankees win because Derek Jeter is a very good baseball player."

And today, Joe wrote in his blog:

"To me, Derek Jeter isn’t a great player because he can rise to the occasion, because he has this sixth sense out there, and because he plays brilliant defense that is so subtle it does not show up in the statistics. No, he’s a great player because he gets on base, and he hits for some power, and he steals bases at a high percentage of success, and because he is extremely durable at a tough defensive position, and, if you want to get away from stats, because his teammates seem to like and admire him enough that they credit him for much of their own success. The power of the best baseball bloggers is that they try to pierce through vagueness and wave away myth and get at the heart of things. Sometimes, they do. Sometimes, they don’t. But, to a new generation of sports fans, it makes a lot more sense than saying: “This guy’s just a winner.”"

So, I'm right. I win. Good for me.

Anyway, my real purpose in writing today is to discuss Citi Field. I finally went for the first time last night, and I am literally in awe. I couldn't be happier with the way the new ballpark looks. It's like a cross between Citizens Bank Park and Camden Yards. Wow, there are just so many things I like about it. Pictures just don't do it justice; you have to see it for yourself. I'll go through a couple of highlights:

1. Clean bathrooms. This might be the best improvement of all of them. I mean it's like going to the bathroom at an airport instead of a public park.

2. Wide hallways. It was unbelievable. I literally walked from my seat to the garbage can and bathrooms without having to navigate through a thousand people (think Camden Yards).

3. Bars. Our seats were on the Excelsior Club level, which is pretty cool. Thanks BB. And there were actually nice bars with nice stools, and well-dressed bartenders, and a decent selection of drinks.

4. Modern appearance. I love the exposed scaffolding, piping, and rafters. Reminds me of my current office. And the bridge near center field is just outstanding.

5. HD TVs in the stands. I guess the biggest drawback to seeing a game in person has always been the lack of instant replays. Now they have TVs near the seats so you get to see replays of every play! Fantastic!

6. Outdoor activities. There's this whole area in center field that has carnival type booths, and fun things to do for fans (think Citizens Bank Park or a larger scale minor league park).

7. Fancy! We popped into the Caesar's Club just to check it out. Honestly, I couldn't even tell we were at a ballpark. We watched a couple of batters on an HDTV in the club while sitting on some couches. It really felt like we were at an airport or a casino. Amazing!

I'm so thrilled that I get to go watch Mets games at this stunning new park for the next 50 years. If only I were so thrilled about the actual team... Oh well; can't have everything all the time.

A Coupla New Ones

No need for any bells and/or whistles, az I'll just jump right into it.

My wife and I were driving back from Baltimore last night, and, as is usually the case, I went to the local lanes on the Jersey Turnpike when they split up. I go to the local lanes because all the moronic drivers out there (you know who you are) go to the express lanes, which leaves the local lanes nearly empty. The only drawbacks are the trucks, of which there are very few at certain hours, and the few miles of two-line driving. Az what happened during said miles of two-lane driving? Well, there was one car in each lane in front of me, each cruising at around 66 mph (speed limit is 65). And that was it; the car in the left lane was about six feet ahead of the car in the right lane, az there was no room to split the uprights. I must have followed them for about 5 miles getting more and more worked up. They both completely ignored my flashing lights and my horn; they probably had a good laugh over a few PBRs when they got back to their trailor homes and their trashy lumberjacking husbands. Now, I wasn't complaining terribly much, considering that I had set the over/under on our arrival at the GWB tolls at 11:07, and my wife, foolishly trusting in my driving skills, took the under, but it was the principal of the issue (we arrived at 11:13 in case you're keeping score)! It's just not cool to drive the speed limit in the left lane and then completely ignore the other drivers.

Now this one was just a funny thing I saw when I was getting a drink today. I noticed a new water product in the fridge at Duane Reade; it was called Water Street, and it had subway-line circles with the letters VH2O below the name. It's Vapor-distilled water, hence the "V." Okay, that's a pretty cool idea. It's New York, the subways, I get it. But there were SO many problems with the VH2O, that it was almost laughable. In fact, it WAS laughable. Here were the issues:

1. There are no H and O lines in the New York City subway system (in fact, only H, I, K, O, P, U, X, and Y are not in use (or in the works, like T)).

2. The 2 was correctly red, and the H and O were green and yellow, respectively, which is fine because they don't exist. But the V was blue! The V train exists! Why not make it orange like the actual V train?!

3. There IS no Water Street stop on any of the New York City subways.

The point is that it's a cute idea, but it was put into effect so poorly that I wouldn't be surprised if only tourists bought it. Hey, you never know; tourists might be their target market. No self-respecting New Yorker should ever be caught dead drinking one of those.

OMG No!

Before I forget this absolute insanity, it needs to be written down. I'm listening to Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio. Why? Because of stuff like this. He's talking about Derek Jeter getting caught stealing 3rd base last night with nobody out, and he says something like "Derek Jeter is the ____-iest player of the last 20 years, and nobody says that it's so bad to make the first out of the inning at 3rd base; only the last out."

Firstly, no, everyone says that making the first or last out of an inning at 3rd base is a cardinal sin of baseball. Anyway, then he gets corrected, that it is indeed conventional wisdom that you shouldn't make the first out at 3rd base, to which Cowherd responds "Oh, come on. Who says you shouldn't make the first out at 3rd base? There was nothing wrong with what Derek Jeter did last night. Who cares what anyone says? You're Derek Jeter; you do whatever you want." And furthermore, he continues to dig himself into a deeper hole, "...not only is it okay to steal 3rd with no outs, it's the BEST time to steal! Because nobody expects it!"

Fine. I guess it's human nature to not want to admit one's mistakes, especially in front of an audience of potentially hundreds of thousands. But the fact that he's saying it's okay because it was Derek Jeter just blows my mind. And then he continues to make even more ridiculous assertions! It's just insanity. Chaos even!

Colin, you are a pillar, nay, a bastion of wrongness. Derek Jeter, you are a fine baseball player. I don't care if you were tagged out or not. If you want to steal 3rd base with nobody out, you better be safe.

Just Throw Strikes

Okay, here's the situation. Mets are down to the Yankees 3-2 in the top of the 9th inning. The Yankees have the bases loaded thanks in part to another dropped pop-up, and there are two outs. The Yankees brought in Mariano Rivera with two outs in the 8th inning with two men on, and after fouling off several tough pitches in a row, Omir Santos watched a ball go right down the middle. Obviously. Anyway, because the Yankees want Rivera to pitch the 9th inning, they allow him to bat. Again, to recap, bases are loaded, Mets are down by one run, two outs in the top of the 9th inning. The Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez is facing Mariano Rivera, a man who has appeared in a batters box six times in his entire career. Now the obvious play is to throw three straight fastballs right down the middle. Odds are that Rivera, with all of his batting experience, will strike out or hit the ball weakly somewhere. But no, Frankie decides he's going to be cute and starts off throwing two balls. Now Rivera's not swinging because he's probably afraid he's going to hurt himself. I'm sure the Yankees would have been content to just have him watch three strikes go by and then go pitch. Then Frankie "fights" his way back to 2-2 and then throws two more balls. He walked the opposing pitcher with the bases loaded. He forced a run in. He actually allowed a pitcher with six career plate appearances to walk. Why on earth would you ever throw any balls to a relief pitcher in the American League? It's actually unconscionable. It's the most absurdly horrible thing I've ever seen a pitcher do. Now it probably won't matter in the least because Rivera will probably shut the Mets down in the 9th inning anyway, but that's not the point! Just threw three straight strikes down the middle and have done! That's it. I'm done. Enough. I'm disgusted.

Oh, and thanks for a correction in one of the comments. Rivera actually had just two plate appearances before today.

You Need to Let Me Know!

The late, great Mitchell Lee Hedberg zt"l once intoned: "I was gonna get a candy bar; the button I was supposed to push was "HH", so I went to the side, I found the "H" button, I pushed it twice. Fuckin' potato chips came out, man! Turns out they had a "HH" button. You need to let me know. I'm not familiar with the concept of "HH". I did not learn my AA-BB-CC's. God god, dammit dammit."

Now this, as many of you would agree, is not an incredibly funny joke, nor is it particularly well delivered. But, the esteemed Mr. Hedberg's quotation is not without its merits.

Before I continue, let me just say that I have returned to a position where I will have significantly more downtime with which I can continue writing. Az for those of you who have been breathlessly waiting for my inevitable return, I bid you welcome.

Anyway, the point is that people are allowed to do whatever they want, but they should at least let us know what they're planning. There's totally allowed to be an HH button on the candy machine, just put a big ol' sign on there telling us NOT to hit the H button twice. You follow me? I'll give you a coupla examples:

One day two weeks ago I decided to drive down to work. On an average morning at about 8:15, it should take about 35-40 minutes to get from the RJC at 237th Street and Independence Avenue to West 14th Street and 9th Avenue. Az at about 8:31 I'm listening to the traffic report to see if there are any surprises on the Henry Hudson Parkway. Sounds like all's clear, az I stick with it. And then traffic starts to slow down. Traffic report still mentions nothing, az when I finally, 45 minutes later, get to around 50th Street, I see a three-car accident being cleared up. Now listen. It's fine if there's an accident; it happens, there's nothing you can do about it, right? But is it so difficult to just spend five seconds of the traffic report to tell us? It's SO easy. I mean what's the point of listening to the traffic report if they're going to ignore the ONE thing you need to hear about? So - incredibly - frustrating.

Here's another. Last night I was watching So You Think You Can Dance at my apartment, and we were about an hour behind because of working out and preparing for dinner. Az the DVR helped us catch up, az we finished the show only 10-15 minutes after the show actually ended. Meanwhile, I missed the Mets' 11-0 win over the Cardinals, az I wanted to see highlights on SportsCenter or Baseball Tonight on ESPN, but the College World Series was on, az I checked out the channel listings and saw that SportsCenter was on at 11. Fine. 11:00 rolls around, and it had a few extra minutes of College World Series. No biggie; it happens all the time with these live events. Az now I'm breathlessly awaiting SportsCenter and what comes on? Freakin' NBA Draft Preview! WTF?! Az now I'm thinking, "ok, it's just for the first few minutes of SportsCenter, and then they'll get back to all the baseball highlights," but NO, it went the full freakin' hour. And then, to turn insult to injury, they spent the first half hour of SportsCenter showing MORE NBA Draft coverage (didn't they just have an hour devoted to it??? WTF?!?!?!?!), MORE College World Series, and then a long segment on the US soccer team beating the Spanish. Seriously, WHO THE F**K CARES about the College World Series and international soccer? I mean yes, some people do care, but those segments should be relegated to later on in the hour. Put the real, professional American sports first. Fine. I get it. The point is that the channel listings showed that SportsCenter was on from 11-12, and yet they broadcasted the NBA Draft preview. It's fine if you want to have such a preview, but you have to let us know that you're doing it! And it's not like it was breaking news and they didn't have time to inform the cable company to change their listing. The NBA Draft has been on the schedule for a year! It's so easy. All you have to do is tell us what you're planning.

Sorry if I'm a bit rusty; it's been a while. At least I have the semi-colon stuff still rollin'.

Fluke

I'm not actually back, I just heard some good stuff on the radio a couple of days ago. There's all this jazz going on about Citigroup owning the naming rights to the new Mets ballpark, and how they have no right to spend $400,000,000 in sponsorship money if they got bailed out by the government. Anyway, that was just the backdrop for the fun discussion. Michael Kay was saying that Citi Field is the perfect name for the stadium. He's had enough of these corporate sounding names like "Minute Maid Park" or "US Cellular Field." He said that when the San Francisco Giants (who used to be the New York Giants and played at the Polo Grounds) were building a new park, the owner called up Ralph Lauren to ask him to sponsor the stadium so that they could call it the Polo Grounds (get it? Ralph Lauren? Polo?). Anyway, the deal fell through, but it was a great idea. Then he was saying that the Jets and Giants were trying to get Jet Blue to sponsor their new stadium an the Meadowlands. Wouldn't that be awesome? Jet Blue Stadium? I was in shock at how amazing an idea that was. Whatever, just thought I'd share.

The Windy City

Az I just got back from my first business trip in my life (by "just got back" I mean about a month ago. Sorry guys, I was lazy and I had a free trial of Rail Baron on my office computer. Now that it expired I'll have to find other ways to occupy myself during my minimal down-time). The Company sent me out to the Chicago office for a couple of days of training, so I left New York early on Monday morning and stayed in Chicago through Wednesday evening. I want to devote this space to my reflections on that city.

Now, I've never actually stayed at a hotel in New York because... well... I live here, so I couldn't really compare my hotel experience in Chicago to anything here. I did rather enjoy the king-size bed and wide-screen TV, however. I was a bit curious why they went through the trouble of putting those TVs in the rooms but didn't go all the way and get HD service. And the shower left a bit to be desired, but what can you do; you can't have it all.

Anyway, since I was at the office all day I didn't really have a chance to do much sight-seeing; I basically stayed around downtown Chicago the entire time. One thing I noticed was that compared to New York the streets are very clean. This is something I noticed the first time I was in Chicago four years ago for a wedding, but that experience was a bit different because it was a Saturday night; downtown is essentially EMPTY on Saturday night. I was like "where are all the people? I thought this was a big city..." There was no lack of people this time, which is what made the clean streets all the more impressive.

Another thing I found impressive was the fact that every street downtown is a big street. Midtown Manhattan has a few big streets: every avenue, 34th street, 42nd street, etc. Otherwise, every street is a side street. Downtown Chicago has no side streets; every street is a major thoroughfare.

Now here's where things start to make less sense. There are places in New York that have subway tracks above ground. Those places tend to be not-so-good neighborhoods, e.g. 125th street, south Bronx, etc. But downtown Chicago has the elevated train running right through it. It was very strange to see fancy stores and nice restaurants and bars right next to elevated subway tracks.

Three words: Cops on Segways!

Now, as everyone knows, my favorite movie is The Matrix. The movie was actually filmed in Sydney, Australia, but the city is supposed to be Chicago. Az after work on the second day, I walked around downtown to see a couple of sights. I was very excited to find that my hotel was very close to the intersection of Wabash and Lake Streets. In the movie, Tank tells Neo that there is an exit from the Matrix at Wabash and Lake, so that was pretty cool. I almost walked to the Adams Street bridge, which is where Neo first gets picked up by Trinity and the others, but it was a bit far. Anyway, you bet your Segway I took a picture of the Wabash and Lake street signs.

Now for something completely unrelated to Chicago. It was so long ago that I read this, but it was probably in either The Hardball Times, or Baseball Prospectus, or Joe Posnanski. I read in one of those places that because of how Andy Marte is working out, teams should be wary when they trade for prospects from the Atlanta Braves. Marte, who was once a highly touted prospect in the Braves' system, was traded to the Cleveland Indians, and he has been bounced between the Major and Minor Leagues for the past couple of seasons. Anyway, that innocent statement got me thinking: wouldn't it be possible for a team to create a fake prospect? Think about it. I'm John Schuerholz, fromer Braves general manager, and I want to create some fake value. So I take one of my young players in the low Minor Leagues and I make a deal with him. I tell him "listen, you and I both know that your career is going nowhere, but I have an idea that's going to make you a rich man." I tell him that I'm going to pay a few of our opponents' pitchers to tip their pitches, i.e. make it known to our batter what he's going to throw. That will artificially inflate our man's stats and make him a better prospect. Other franchises will start to look at him and perhaps make us an attractive offer to trade for him. That team might decide to pay him much more than he's worth based on his now inflated Minor League numbers. So he gets rich, we get an actual good player or two, and all that's left is just another failed prospect. Seriously, take a look at Marte's Minor League stats:

In four full Minor League seasons from rookie ball through AAA, Marte OPSed .828, .844, .910, and .878. In those four seasons he walked 41, 67, 60, and 64 times. In his two Minor League seasons with Cleveland, he OPSed .773, and .766, and walked just 34 and 21 times. Wha happen?

Mmmmm, I can just smell my first baseball mystery novel. That thing would sell like hot Segways.

Back in the Swing

Today is my fifth day at my new job, and things are pretty busy, which is why I have had little chance to post. I mentioned in a recent post that things would slow down for a while, but they'll pick up eventually.

Anyway, I have a bunch of things to discuss. I'll start off with the non-baseball-related jazz so as to not alienate the vast majority of you. I'll begin with the story of my first day of vacation two Mondays ago. Some of you have heard this story before, but it needs to be available in print, at least for posterity. So I was driving to the East Side on Sunday morning so I could pick up my mom. I was playing softball against my brother, and his wife and my eight month old nephew were gonna come too, az my mom wanted to join the party. On the way home my brother called to tell me that the baby was sick so he and his mother were going to stay home. Fine. Anyway, while I was driving down the Harlem River Drive, I noticed that something just didn't feel right with the car. I exited and pulled over and inspected my tires. Yep, my front passenger's side tire was definitely not going to make it through the day. Az I drove home very slowly and convinced my mother that she needn't go to the game because the baby wasn't going anyway. And then I even learned that my brother had to stay home with the sick baby too, and Mom definitely didn't need to come watch just me. But now I had to carry all the softball equipment, including the bats, balls, catcher's mask, and my glove, by myself. Combining that with the threat of imminent rain made for a very unpleasant 45 minute walk. Anyway, the weather held up and we won our game, so that was nice. I had the others take the equipment back up to the Heights for me and I went back home. I figured I could run errands and spend the night at home and then bring the car in for service early in the morning. Az I traveled around the city like a normal human being for a day; I walked over to my brother's apartment to borrow a book and then grabbed the 6 at 77th and Lex. I went down to the village for a bit of shopping and then back up to 96th street to rent some DVDs. Then I walked down to 86th to buy some shorts at Modell's and then went home. Now we get to the annoying part. I got up at 7:00 to bring my car to Paragon Acura in Queens. I got there and they asked me if I had an appointment. I told them I never needed an appointment before, so the surly gentleman told me they changed their policy recently. Fine. After a bit of needling I convinced them to take my car. Then the same surly gentleman tried to sell me four new tires. I agreed with him that I needed three new ones, but the fourth had just been replaced about eight months ago. He sheepishly consented and he said my car would be ready by 2:00. Then I took the subway back home and napped for an hour and a half or so. We had a family bris at 11:30, so I went with my grandmother and met my brother there. We stayed for about an hour and then I went to the West Side to meet a friend for lunch. I got a call at 1:30 from Paragon, and they told me that they couldn't find the wheel-lock key for my tires (when I first got the car I splurged a bit. Wheel locks are special bolts that you put on each wheel that prevent them from being stolen. You need a special key to attach to your wrench to be able to remove the bolts). I told them it was either in my trunk with the spare tire or in the pocket between the two front seats. The service guy insisted that he could not find it; he was even looking for it while he was on the phone with me. So I told him I could get there in half an hour; az I headed over and followed the service guy to the back. Needless to say, I found the key in no more than ten seconds; it was right where I said it would be, in the pocket between the front seats. By this time they had taken my car off the rack because they couldn't do anything with it, so they said I had to wait until they put it back up; I should expect to wait until at least 5:30. It was 2:30 and I was stuck on Northern Boulevard. There's NOTHING there except for car dealerships, az I gave them a piece of my mind and took the subway back home again. When I finally came back at half past five they actually expected me to pay full price for the service. I told them in no uncertain terms that I pay top dollar for their respect and competence, and if they want to keep my business they'll treat me like a human being and waive the service fee. So I ended up with three brand new tires for the low low price of $747.46. Anyway, that was quite a poor start to my vacation.

Moving right along, last Wednesday I stayed at work for the first time until 7:00 pm. And you know what? The concept of staying at work late is something I find abhorrent, but in practice it's really quite pleasant. Seriously, the instant the clock strikes five and I no longer have to be there it's as if a load has been lifted from my shoulders and I can work more freely. There are fewer people around, nobody calls me, and I can work at my own pace with no distractions. Now if only I could avoid getting to work at 8:45...
On the fourth of July I went shopping at an outlet mall in Long Island. I had a coupon for Lids, a hat store, so I went in to check out their inventory. The first thing I noticed was that the store was divided up; along the right wall were the white hats and along the opposite wall were the black hats. And I don't mean the color of the hats; I mean the hats along the right wall were for white customers and the others were for the black customers. The white hats are the ones with curvy brims, just one price tag, and they are usually fairly empty with small logos. The black hats start off a size larger, have flat brims, and have very large logos and patterns. I didn't have a problem with it; I just found it noteworthy.
Okay, that's all the non-baseball content for today. Those of you who appreciate my sport or even those of you who think David Wright and Grady Sizemore are cute are invited to read on (all stats are through Sunday, July 6th).

I had read last week that Grady Sizemore, the center fielder for the Cleveland Indians, was leading the American League in home runs. This surprised me because one doesn't really think of Mr. Sizemore as a home run hitter. Indeed, PECOTA projected Sizemore to hit .277/.367/.490, with 25 HR, 90 RBI, and 20 SB. PECOTA nailed the batting average and on-base percentage (Sizemore is actually hitting .269/.372), but were way off on the slugging percentage. Sizemore, to this point, is slugging .541 and is on pace to hit 36 HR and steal 33 bases. When I first saw those stats, I was astonished at how similar they looked to Carlos Beltran's stats from two years ago. In 2006, Beltran hit .276/.353/.525, with 33 HR, 112 RBI, and 23 SB. I always thought he'd be more of a prototypical leadoff hitter with a bit of extra pop, but he's actually turning into Carlos Beltran. Another words, if Cleveland wants to make better use of Sizemore's skill set, they better move him to the middle of the lineup.

Az it looks like the Mets are starting to hit a little bit better, and we're a drop over the halfway point of the season, around where you'd expect the All-Star break to be. So I went ahead and looked at some stats, and what really stuck out for me was David Wright. I know I wrote about him recently, but I couldn't shake the nagging feeling that his numbers look similar to his first half from last year. A quick scan of the stats confirmed my suspicions. Through 86 games last year, Wright hit .292/.373/.506, with 16 HR, 51 RBI, and 18 SB. This year, through 87 games Wright has hit .286/.382/.501, with 16 HR, 66 RBI, and 9 SB. He has exactly the same amount of hits as he did in first half last year (97), one less single (58 to 59), and the same amount of doubles (21). If he can duplicate his second half from last year, then he'll be a top MVP candidate again, and then we'll see who should have been an all-star.

A Really Good Day

And no, this has nothing to do with women.

So the early part of the day went pretty much as expected. The subway was the subway, work was work, etc. But then my co-workers took me out for lunch as sort of a congratulations-you-got-a-new-job/good-riddance-to-bad-rubbish "celebration." That really was very nice. We (3 Jews (one observant (me)), a Greek, an Asian, and an Italian) went to Taam Tov for some good, old-fashioned Bukharian food. Perfect. Then we walked off our meal with a pleasant stroll over to Bryant Park and a quick trip to the new Bank of America headquarters on 6th Avenue between 42nd and 43rd streets (somehow they scored the address "One Bryant Park." I guess it's all about who you know).

Anyway, I finished up work after lunch and then walked to the Apple Store on 5th Avenue and 58th Street. I didn't know exactly where it was az I looked it up online. I thought "hmm, that looks like FAO Schwartz... Did FAO Schwartz become the Apple Store?" So I walk over there and then I realized that the Apple Store is UNDER the plaza in front of FAO Schwartz. I have never been to such a store in my life. I dunno if any of you have been there, but it's very difficult to explain it; you have to see it for yourself. It's one gigantic room of Apple products (iphones, ipods, macbook airs, etc.), and it's full of people trying them out. Seriously, I think if you got rid of all the people the place would look empty. I mean almost none of the space was taken up by the product displays; it was mostly just people. And there were A LOT of people. Here's how I could tell it was a high-class place. There were two people standing at the entrance (under the enormous Apple logo) whose sole purpose was to drop customers' umbrellas into a device that made them come out in bags so they wouldn't get everything wet. What a place! Anyway, I didn't buy anything, but I did order a refurbished 4 GB Nano online for $99. I figure either I'll switch back to AT&T after another year and just buy an iphone, or my new company will supply me with a blackberry rendering an iphone redundant, so I think the refurb Nano is a good stop-gap.

I left the Apple Store and walked to Columbus Circle to catch the A-train uptown. I had to hurry because my student's math final is today (Thursday), and we had a lot to cover. I got back to my apartment, changed my clothes, wolfed down a cinnamon bun (dinner of champions), ordered the refurb Nano online, checked my DVR to make sure So You Think You Can Dance was being recorded, and high-tailed it up to Riverdale. Six hours later and we were done with Trigonometry, Limits, and introductory Calculus. Gotta give the kid props for sticking with me for that long; I hope he does well. Seriously, can you believe that I sat down and did math for six hours? I didn't even notice; the time just flew by. A lot of you will assert that I could do it because I was getting paid an obscene amount of money, but I can safely say that I would have done it for a quarter the price (not gonna do it for free; my time is still valuable). Math is just that fun for me.

When I finally arrived back at my apartment at almost 1:00 am, a Cap'n Munch sandwich from Chickie's was waiting for me. It was a bit soggy and essentially at room temperature, but it was still delicious. Meanwhile, the Mets were down 4-3 to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the ninth inning, and no one can hit Francisco Rodriguez these days. But a hit by Jose Reyes, a wild pitch from K-Rod, and another hit by David Wright, and the Mets had tied it up. Damion Easley's home run in the 10th won it, and a perfect tenth inning from Billy Wagner shut the door. I couldn't be happier with how the day went.

Side note completely unrelated to yesterday's events: ESPN has recently hired a couple of castoffs from other sports ventures: Warner Wolf ("Let's go to the videoTAPE!") and Rick Reilly. Now I never really had any strong feelings about Rick Reilly; I never really read Sports Illustrated. I wasn't too impressed with his work, but whatever, who cares? I still don't read his stuff on ESPN. But I actually do get to hear from Warner Wolf every day because he has a few 30-second spots on Mike and Mike in the Morning between 9 and 10 am. And my conclusion: he is dumb. I fully respect ESPN for getting these guys because they are big names and appeal to sports fans of all ages, but some things I won't tolerate. I have zero doubt that Warner Wolf knows a million times more about sports than I do, but that doesn't mean he's allowed to tell us what athletes are thinking. Here's the basic gist of what he said this morning:

"A recent poll was taken of a bunch of Major League Baseball players, and they were asked who they think is the most over-rated player in the game. The top-five vote-getters were Derek Jeter, Barry Zito, J.D. Drew, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis. It comes as no surprise that four of those guys play for the Yankees or Red Sox. Maybe the voters were just JEALOUS. Four of those guys are also some of the highest paid players in the game! Warner Wolf, 1050, ESPN New York..."

No no no no no no no no no no no no and no. Does he really think that players are calling those guys over-rated because they're jealous of how much money they're making?! Now I'm certainly not arrogant enough to say what those guys are thinking, but I think it makes a lot more sense to say that those voters think those five players are over-rated precisely BECAUSE they're making so much money. As far as I'm concerned, getting paid too much money for what you're worth is exactly what it means to be over-rated. Come on Warner; you're not senile yet. Think a little bit.

Another side note completely unrelated to anything previously said with the exception of a Mike-and-Mike shoutout: On the radio they have various hosts do commercials for different products. Mike and Mike do commercials for Olevia HD-TVs and Colin Cowherd (another one of those guys ESPN employs to appeal to a certain kind of sports fan), who I hate, does commercials for Vizio HD-TVs. Now I know absolutely nothing about the relative quality of Olevia TVs compared to Vizio TVs, but what I DO know is that I would never ever buy a Vizio instead of an Olevia, because I love Mike and Mike and I hate Colin Cowherd. There's gotta be some kind of marketing analysis behind all this.

Just Play

Okay, seriously. Can we just get over it already? Willie Randolph was fired as manager of the Mets. Honestly, who cares? I'm not upset that the Mets fired the manager, but I AM upset that we're gonna be hearing about it on the radio and on TV and reading about it in the newspaper and online. I'd rather just hear/read/watch actual baseball. People are going absolutely bonkers about this, "oh, Willie Randolph is such a nice man... how can the bad old Mets do this to a New York legend?" And even the people who are in favor of the firing are taking it way too seriously. Is Willie putting on his second baseman's glove and taking the field every day? Is he picking up a bat and stepping into the batter's box to face the opposing pitcher? No and no. The identity of the manager has a negligible effect on the performance of his team. A manager can't make bad players into good players no matter how good a manager he is. I'm so fed up with this. I want the players, the fans, and especially the media to wash their hands of this whole situation so we can get back to actual real baseball. Mets are playing the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim tonight, and I might even mute the sound so I won't have to hear all the commentators and announcers talk about "Willie this" and "Willie that." Just let them play.

What's Wrong with Wright?

Wow, that title had all four words starting with "W." That's some serious alliteration right there.

Anyway, we're now 68 games into the 2008 baseball season and the Mets are pretty much stuck in neutral. Two posts ago I looked at each player to try to determine what was going on, and I mentioned that David Wright was getting a bit unlucky:

"Am I concerned? Nope. David's really been hitting the ball hard all year. As I expected, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is around 40 points below what it should be. His Line-Drive percentage is a robust 23.5%, which should translate to a .355 BABIP, but his is sitting at .310 currently. It's only a matter of time until those line drives start falling in for hits and his stats rise accordingly."

But now I want to look at David Wright more in depth. Let's examine his secondary stats and compare them to his numbers from last season:

Let's start with his slash stats: Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage/OPS
2007: .325/.416/.546/.963
2008: .276/.373/.485/.858
Those stats are way down this year.

And now his counting stats:
2007: 30 HR, 107 RBI, 113 Runs, 34 SB, 42 Doubles, 94 Walks, 115 Ks
2008 (pace): 29 HR, 119 RBI, 100 Runs, 19 SB, 43 Doubles, 100 Walks, 114 Ks.
Now those look almost identical! Looks like he's just hitting fewer singles.

Let's go deeper: Walk Percentage/Strikeout Percentage/Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio
2007: 13.5% / 19.0% / 0.82
2008: 13.5% / 17.9% / 0.88
So this is starting to look fishy. He's walking just as often and he's striking out less. Looks like the progression of a player who is getting better at judging the strike zone. So why are his stats down?

Let's keep going: Ground Ball Percentage/Fly Ball Percentage/Ground Ball-to-Fly Ball Ratio/Home Runs per Fly Ball Percentage/Line Drive Percentage/Batting Average on Balls in Play
2007: 39.3% / 37.5% / 1.05 / 16.1% / 23.2% / .362
2008: 38.4% / 40.6% / 0.95 / 13.2% / 21.0% / .298
Okay, so ground balls are down and fly balls are up; that's usually a good sign. But line drive percentage is down, and home run percentage is WAY down. And as I said last time, his actual batting average on balls in play is .32 points below what it should be, which accounts for his low overall batting average.

One step further: Swing percentage at pitches outside the strike zone/swing percentage at pitches in the strike zone/overall percentage of pitches swung at/contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone/contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone/overall contact percentage
2007: 21.66% / 64.83% / 42.54% / 66.24% / 88.76% / 82.84%
2008: 20.79% / 68.69% / 44.40% / 62.20% / 90.44% / 83.74%
So he's swinging at more balls overall, which is fine because he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and more pitches in. And he's making more overall contact, which is also fine because he's making contact more often on pitches in the strike zone.

Conclusion: I have no freakin' clue why his numbers aren't up to par. All signs are pointing to Wright's continued development in terms of reading the strike zone. He's walking more than last year; he's striking out less often, he's hitting more fly balls, and he's swinging at better pitches. The only thing that looks wrong is his line drive percentage. Considering that he's swinging at better pitches I expect that number to change. Besides, he usually picks it up in the second half. I'm prepared to submit that David Wright is just getting unlucky. His luck is bound to turn around sooner or later.

Special thanks to fangraphs.com for advanced statistics.

Note: According to the fantastic website hittrackeronline.com, of David Wright's 31 home runs last year, twelve of them were "just enough," tied for third most in the NL. "Just enough" means that it cleared the fence by less than ten feet. Also, he led the NL in "lucky" home runs with ten, two more than the next most. A "lucky" home run would not have been a home run without help from the weather or other conditions (Colorado, for example). Az 22 of his 31 home runs could easily have been outs were it not for a bit of outside help. Some might say that it's a skill to use the conditions to your advantage. Others will posit that there were probably a bunch of fly balls that fell just short of the wall and that the "lucky" and "just enough" home runs have evened out with the ones that didn't make it over the fence. Either way, Wright might not be quite the impressive slugger that he appears. Maybe those lucky ones have just not been quite enough this year. Hopefully everything will even out as the year goes on and some of those outs will turn into home runs.

Uptown A Experience?

That subject came up over the weekend. I was at a Shavuot lunch on Tuesday and for some reason the ice breaker was to tell a commuting story. The story I told can be read in my post "Ridiculous," from August 8th, 2007. Anyway, we were talking about the subways, and someone who gets up like three hours earlier than I said that he likes the Downtown-A-Experience-Guy too. Az we were musing about what he says on his way back to Manhattan; does he say "this is the uptown A experience...?"

But that's not the point of this post. I'm going on another rant about the public transportation system. Many of you take the B or D train a couple of stops every day; I take it two stops between Rockefeller Center and Columbus Circle. My rant is not regarding the frequency (or infrequency, to be more precise) with which those trains come, but rather the timing. As everyone knows, the A and D trains run on the same track at 59th street, az many times you'll be on the D train going uptown and it will stop just before the Columbus Circle station. It's a bit frustrating when you want to get on an A train and that train is the very reason you're own train has stopped, but there's nothing to be done about that. My problem is actually more of a psychological one. Now, I assume that there is some absurdly complex algorithm for determining when which trains should go where and how often they should come, but this just doesn't make any sense. Probably at least once a week I'll be on a D train that is waiting at the 7th avenue stop (one stop before Columbus Circle). It might wait for a few minutes, not really a big deal. But then it will stop again as it's approaching 59th street because of an A train in front of it! Now I want to ask a couple of questions:

1. If there's an A train in front of the train now, what was it waiting for at the 7th avenue station?
2. If the D train was going to have to wait for an A train to move anyway, why didn't it just continue waiting until the A train would have been gone?

See that's just screwing with you, you know? You're waiting for the subway doors to close and you're relieved when they finally do. But then you end up waiting again in between stations! Just have us wait only once.

Anyway, it will be a moot point pretty soon because I won't be taking the B or D train any longer come June 20th. It's quite probable that my ability to post will be curtailed for at least a little while as well. Hameivin yavin.

Projection Update

We're now one-third of the way through the baseball season (well, a tad more, but let's pretend). By now we should have enough data to compare to the pre-season projections. Az let's jump right in. All stats are through the first 54 games of the season extrapolated out to 162:

Johan Santana: 220 IP, 18-9, 216 Hits, 3.41 ERA, 36 HR, 195 Ks, 51 BBs, 1.203 WHIP, 3.824 K/BB, 7.905 K/9, 2.068 BB/9, 1.459 HR/9.
The projections were all pretty far off. The best was the ZiPS projection: 234 IP, 18-8, 192 Hits, 3.04 ERA, 28 HR, 244 Ks, 46 BBs, 1.017 WHIP, 5.304 K/BB, 9.385 K/9, 1.769 BB/9, 1.077 HR/9.
His actual stats are much closer to his 10th percentile PECOTA projection: 187.7 IP, 13-8, 173 Hits, 3.84 ERA, 25 HR, 188 Ks, 56 BBs, 1.22 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Not very. His 1st/2nd half splits are absurd. He really cranks it up after the All-Star break.

Pedro Martinez: No sample size to work with since he just got back from his injury. We'll check back with him at the 81 game mark.

John Maine: 192 IP, 15-12, 162 Hits, 3.66 ERA, 18 HR, 162 Ks, 90 BBs, 1.313 WHIP, 1.80 K/BB, 7.594 K/9, 4.219 BB/9, 0.844 HR/9.
The projections were all around the same, around a 4.00 ERA, around 7.5 K/9. The ERAs were off, and the HRs were off, but all in all, not bad work.
His actual stats are closer to his 75th percentile PECOTA projections, although his strikeouts and walks are off: 161.2 IP, 11-6, 144 Hits, 3.49 ERA, 17 HR, 142 Ks, 61 BBs, 1.27 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9.
Am I concerned? A little bit. He has been better in the first half than in the second over the course of his career.

Oliver Perez: 179 IP, 12-9, 150 Hits, 4.83 ERA, 27 HR, 150 Ks, 123 BBs, 1.525 WHIP, 1.22 K/BB, 7.542 K/9, 6.184 BB/9, 1.358 HR/9.
Marcel and Bill James were excellent. Both have him at around a .500 record, a 4.50+ ERA, and a 1.43+ WHIP. Well done.
His actual stats are virtually identical to his 40th percentile PECOTA projection with a few more walks: 133.2 IP, 8-8, 128 Hits, 4.83 ERA, 18 HR, 127 Ks, 66 BB, 1.45 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Yes. These stats don't include his start on Monday against the Giants (who can't hit a lick), in which he gave up 6 ER in 0.1 innings.

Mike Pelfrey: 168 IP, 6-18, 210 Hits, 4.98 ERA, 12 HR, 87 Ks, 75 BBs, 1.696 WHIP, 1.16 K/BB, 4.661 K/9, 4.018 BB/9, 0.643 HR/9.
Marcel and PECOTA were spot on. Both had him below .500, an ERA over 4.50, and a WHIP around 1.50. They also projected few strikeouts and home runs, although not quite as few as he's actually had.
His actual stats are close to his 25th percentile PECOTA projection: 123 IP, 7-8, 137 Hits, 5.25 ERA, 13 HR, 77 Ks, 61 BBs, 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9.
Am I concerned? Yeah! But it's not his fault. The Mets need to play better defense. Castillo's knees need to be healthy, Reyes needs to routinely make routine plays, and Wright just needs to get a bit sharper. Then all of those Pelfrey grounders will get gobbled up instead of going for hits.

The sample size is still too small for the relievers and bench players. Maybe I'll do them at the 81 game mark. Onto the hitters:

Brian Schneider: 408 PA, 27 Runs, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 0 SB, 39 BBs, 60 Ks, .258 BA, .328 OBP, .317 SLG, .645 OPS.
All the projections are close. They all have him at around .250 with a .640 to .690 OPS with 5-7 HR and 40-60 RBI.
His actual stats are pretty close to his 75th percentile PECOTA projection, minus a few extra base hits: 34 Runs, 5 HR, 33 RBI, .260/.339/.376/.715.
Am I concerned? A little bit. I think with a healthy Ramon Castro backing him up and even pressuring him to perform, Schneider will pick up the pace somewhat.

Carlos Delgado: 654 PA, 75 Runs, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB, 66 BBs, 132 Ks, .228 BA, .307 OBP, .389 SLG, .696 OPS.
Everybody was off on this one. Nobody realized that last season's decline was real. It's really sad to see.
His actual power numbers are in line with his 75th percentile PECOTA projection: 22 HR, 77 RBI, 64 Runs, 48 BBs. But his rate stats are more in line with his 10th percentile: .229/.302/.397/.699.
Am I concerned? Who wouldn't be? He has sparks of brilliance, and he can get hot, but he's just not hitting with any consistency. This might be the end.

Luis Castillo: 567 PA, 81 Runs, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 27 SB, 81 BBs, 42 Ks, .274 BA, .384 OBP, .376 SLG, .760 OPS.
Everybody was off, but not as badly as for Delgado. Nobody expected Castillo to hit more than a homer or two. Everyone overshot his batting average, projecting around .290, but also no one expected him to walk so much.
His actual stats are very close to his 90th percentile PECOTA projection, believe it or not: 100 Runs, 0 HR, 40 RBI, 19 SB, 63 BBs, 43 Ks, .317/.391/.377/.768.
Am I concerned? I don't see much that is concerning. His batting average is down because he is really not swinging early in the count at hittable pitches. He is being extremely patient at the plate and trying extra hard to draw that walk. I would say that's not a bad strategy with Wright, Beltran, and Church hitting behind him.

Jose Reyes: 747 PA, 102 Runs, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 51 SB, 69 BBs, 99 Ks, .282 BA, .346 OBP, .477 SLG, .823 OPS.
Basically everyone had pretty similar projections and were also off, a la Luis Castillo. They pretty much nailed his batting average (all around .290), but they underestimated his power. They all had his SLG around .440.
His actual stats are right in line with his 75th percentile PECOTA projection minus a few hits: 113 Runs, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 61 SB, 57 BBs, 69 Ks, .308/.369/.483/.852.
Am I concerned? No. His early season struggles seem to have corrected themselves and he has begun driving the ball with authority to all parts of the yard. He's no longer getting fooled and popping the ball up to the opposite field. He needs to just keep it going and not wear down.

David Wright: 747 PA, 108 Runs, 33 HR, 120 RBI, 21 SB, 108 BBs, 117 Ks, .284 BA, .390 OBP, .531 SLG, .921 OPS.
Marcel and PECOTA really hit the bulls-eye here. They all have his batting average climbing over .300, and I fully expect that to occur. His second half last year was far better than his first.
His actual stats are very close to his 40th percentile PECOTA projection: 103 Runs, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 20 SB, 78 BBs, 104 Ks, .299/.388/.526/.914.
Am I concerned? Nope. David's really been hitting the ball hard all year. As I expected, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is around 40 points below what it should be. His Line-Drive percentage is a robust 23.5%, which should translate to a .355 BABIP, but his is sitting at .310 currently. It's only a matter of time until those line drives start falling in for hits and his stats rise accordingly.

Carlos Beltran: 705 PA, 114 Runs, 15 HR, 96 RBI, 21 SB, 105 BBs, 108 Ks, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .444 SLG, .814 OPS.
Blah blah blah, the projections are all the same again. Everyone's basically exactly right except on the home runs and walks. In fact, it seems like Beltran's missing home runs all turned into walks.
His actual stats are unlike any of the PECOTA projections. Man, he really is having a bizarre season. His power has just disappeared. He's turned into Luis Castillo on steroids. He's walking like crazy, but is on pace to have fewer home runs than his 10th percentile PECOTA. WTF is going on??
Am I concerned? I don't even know! Those extra walks are pretty freakin' valuable though, if you ask me.

Ryan Church: 561 PA, 102 Runs, 27 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB, 51 BBs, 120 Ks, .309 BA, .376 OBP, .527 SLG, .903 OPS.
Man, Churchie is just destroying the projections, isn't he? Nobody had him batting higher than .274, OBPing more than .353, or slugging higher than .472.
His actual stats are right around his 90th percentile PECOTA projection: 83 Runs, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, 57 BBs, 109 Ks, .295/.383/.540/.923.
Am I concerned? A little bit, because of the concussion he sustained a couple of weeks ago. In his first game back he hit a home run, so that's encouraging, but we'll have to see how he does over the next couple of weeks. Either way, I don't think I've ever seen anyone consistently hit the ball as hard as Church does. The man is a living line-drive.

Final thoughts: As a whole, I think things are largely going the way they should, considering injuries to a few important pieces (Alou, El Duque, Pedro, Castro). Some more hitting should come from Beltran and a healthy Alou, and perhaps even a rejuvenated Fernando Tatis. The defense should tighten up a little bit, and with Pedro back, the pitching should be in better shape. We'll check back at the half.

The Best Driver of All Time

Yep, I'm talking about me. A bunch of us were at the Mets game last night, but only three of us stayed until the last out. I was driving, and the remaining two were my passengers. So after the game we walked over to my car, which was parked outside the stadium on Roosevelt Avenue. After a couple of right turns and a left, and we found ourselves going eastbound on the Grand Central Parkway. Two exits and a drop of traffic later, we got onto the Van Wyck Expressway northbound towards the Whitestone Bridge, my route of choice on the way back to the Heights from Shea. Az we crossed the bridge ($5 toll these days) and made our way towards the Cross Bronx Expressway southbound towards the George Washington Bridge. There should be very minimal traffic along that route at 11:00 pm. Lo and behold, as we were merging onto the Cross Bronx we noticed that the cars were mamash not moving. At all. Luckily it was 10:57, az I quickly turned my radio to News Radio 880 and heard the traffic report.

Remember my fourth post? On August 17th, 2006, I wrote a post listing a couple of things that shouldn't be allowed:
"1. Closing the lower level on the George Washington Bridge and only having two lanes open on the upper roadway. Closing west 178th street between Broadway and Ft. Washington is bad too.
2. When ESPN has little league baseball and ESPN2 has women's basketball at the same time."

Well, believe it or not, last night had both of those things on steroids. On the traffic report, we were told that the entire outbound lower level of the George was closed because of a tractor-trailor accident, and one lane of the upper level was closed because of another truck accident. I politely asked my passengers to buckle their safety belts if they had not already, and proceeded to reverse the car for 100 feet or so on the shoulder and got onto the Bruckner Expressway towards the Triboro Bridge. Okay, so it wasn't the best idea in the whole world, but there were only a couple of cars behind me. The awesome thing was that a bunch of cars in front of me started following my lead. It was drive-tastic! Anyway, we took the Bruckner entry road until it merged with the main part of the highway, and we hit traffic again! The right lane of the entry road was closed too, if you can believe that. Now one thing I absolutely refused to do was pay another toll for the Triboro Bridge; it's against my religion to do that. Az I exited the Bruckner towards the Major Deegan Expressway, where I would get off one exit later and get on the Third Avenue Bridge into Manhattan. Guess what. More lane closures on the Deegan! I'm sorry. You cannot have two-thirds of the GWB closed, the entry lane onto the Bruckner closed, and one lane on the Deegan closed all at the same time. It was absolute chaos. Anyway, another ten minutes on the Deegan before I got off. Once we were off the highway it was smooth sailing; we took the Third Avenue Bridge and exited onto 129th street and Lexington Avenue, and we took the city streets up to the Heights. In total, the drive took a drop over an hour, really excellent all things considered. We heard from someone in another car on the way back, and they had left about 20 minutes before we did. We were two minutes away from my apartment when they called, and they were still on the Cross Bronx. I felt terrible for them, but I was enormously pleased with myself.

Oh yeah, and when I finally got home I really wanted to watch SportsCenter so I could see highlights of the game; I wanted to see David Wright's two home runs. Would you believe that ESPN was broadcasting the Women's College Softball World Series and ESPN2 was broadcasting NASCAR Now? It was absurd. I guess it was the Big Guy telling me it was time for bed.

The List

On July 20, 2007, I wrote a post in which I described things that should not happen while walking on the street. These include stopping in the middle of the sidewalk all of a sudden, and re-entering pedestrian traffic from the side of the street. I'd like to add one more in there: walking backwards. It's ridiculous that I even need to say it, but seriously, if you're in Times Square and you're not putting on an act, don't walk backwards! I mean, are you kidding me?

Hey, ever notice that "Are you kidding me?" and "Are you serious?" mean exactly the same thing?

Az I read a post by Joe Posnanski yesterday, in which he struggles to answer the following question: who is the best everyday player in Mets history? This question is particularly relevant in the wake of Mike Piazza's retirement. He says that for now this is a very tough question, but it will become a moot point in a few years, at which time David Wright will own every single offensive team record. Meanwhile, I decided to come up with my own list of greatest everyday Mets players ever, counting down backwards from ten (stats current as of May 22, 2008. Stats are ranked among players with at least 1000 plate appearences):

10. Mookie Wilson: 4th in ABs, 4th in Runs, 4th in Hits, 4th in Singles, 7th in Doubles, 1st in Triples, 1st in Stolen Bases.

Granted the Mook wasn't a very valuable player, but he holds every Mets speed record to date (until broken by #9 in a year or two). And when you're involved in the most memorable play in Mets history, you need to be on this kind of list.

9. Jose Reyes: 2nd in Triples, 2nd in Stolen Bases.

Reyes is short of the all time Mets record in Triples (by 5) and Stolen Bases (by 33). He should reach both of those milestones this season, and will probably end up doubling both records by the time his career as a Met is over. As such, he will likely move up (or down) this list over the next few years. I'm looking forward to seeing him involved in many memorable plays in the near future.

8. Carlos Beltran: 4th in SLG, 5th in OPS.

He's only played in 479 games as a Met, but he has established himself as one of the most productive Mets on a game-to-game basis. He is also probably the very best defensive center fielder the Mets have ever had, and he is an outstanding base runner (63 SB and 17 CS).

7. Edgardo Alfonzo: 3rd in Runs, 3rd in Hits, 3rd in Doubles, 7th in HR, 5th in RBI, 6th in Walks, 7th in BA, 8th in OBP.

While Fonzie had a far-from-memorable career, his star shone extremely brightly during his years in New York. He brought a consistency on offense and defense, which helped the Mets win every day. He also remains the only Met to date to record a six-hit game. On August 30th, 1999, Alfonzo connected for three home runs and a double in a six-for-six day against the Houston Astros.

6. John Olerud: 2nd in BA, 1st in OBP, 5th in SLG, 1st in OPS.

The only reason Olerud's numbers don't propel him higher on this list is that he only played as a Met for three years. But in those three years he proved to be the best everyday hitter the Mets have ever had (at least according to OPS). He sported a juicy .425 OBP and brought gold-glove caliber play to first base. For more information on Olerud, see my post "A Walk Down the Memory Baseline," from January 8th, 2008.

5. Howard Johnson: 2nd in Runs, 8th in Hits, 2nd in Doubles, 3rd in HR, 3rd in RBI, 3rd in SB, 3rd in Walks.

Hojo's greatness can mostly be attributed to his longevity in a Mets uniform, however his production during the low-offense 1980s was well above league average. Among the five 30 HR / 30 SB seasons in Mets history, Hojo has three of them. In two of those seasons he won the Silver Slugger award for third basemen. His contributions to the Mets continue today as their hitting coach.

4. Keith Hernandez: 8th in Doubles, 7th in RBI, 5th in Walks, 4th in BA, 4th in OBP.

During his tenure in New York, Hernandez solidified his claim as perhaps the best defensive first baseman of all time. But he sure could swing the bat well too. He finished in the top five in MVP voting twice, and eighth another time. I'm surprised he didn't garner more than his minimal Hall of Fame votes, but he will always have a special place in the hearts of Mets fans. He continues to enchant fans with his intelligent (and oftentimes inappropriate) comments as an analyst during Mets broadcasts.

3. Mike Piazza: 7th in Runs, 6th in Hits, 4th in Doubles, 2nd in HR, 2nd in RBI, 9th in Walks, 6th in BA, 5th in OBP, 1st in SLG, 3rd in OPS.

Numbers three and two on this list are largely interchangeable, considering that they are the former and current faces of the franchise. Not much needs to be said about Mike Piazza, but those who are curious can read my previous post, "The Grimace," from May 20, 2008.

2. David Wright: 9th in Doubles, 9th in HR, 3rd in BA, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 2nd in OPS.

The current face of the franchise will likely hold every single offensive record in Mets history within a few short seasons. He's 14th in Runs, but should be 2nd in three seasons. He's 9th in doubles, but should crack the top five this season. He'll also crack the top five in home runs sometime in July. The list goes on and on. We should watch David Wright play baseball as often as possible, because he is truly a unique talent, and he will hopefully man the hot corner at CitiField for the next 15 years.

1. Darryl Strawberry: 1st in Runs, 7th in Hits, 5th in Doubles, 6th in Triples, 1st in HR, 1st in RBI, 4th in SB, 1st in Walks, 3rd in SLG, 4th in OPS.

Man, Darryl could have been one of the all-time greats. Back in the mid- to late 1980s he was right up there with McGwire and Canseco as the up-and-coming young sluggers. His 1987 and1988 seasons are probably the best individual seasons in Mets history, yet he inexplicably lost the MVP award to a clearly inferior Kirk Gibson in '88. He was my favorite player growing up, and even though my bed time was early when I was six, I always used to ask my parents if I could stay up to see Strawberry's first at-bat.

Honorable mentions: Bobby Bonilla, Robin Ventura, Benny Agbayani (yeah, really. .834 OPS ranked 7th in Mets history), Lance Johnson, Lenny Dykstra, Ed Kranepool, Rey Ordonez (no, not really).

The Grimace

I promise I'll get to Mike Piazza in a minute, but first a little more driving. Some of you might be interested in that, while none of you are interested in baseball.

So I came up with a couple of new driving pet-peeves, which I'm sure everyone is just dying to know. You know how there are "turn only" and "exit only" lanes all over the place? Well they're there for a bloody reason! If you are in one of those lanes you better freakin' do what the signs tell you to do. If you're headed southbound on the Harlem River Drive and you're driving in the right lane near 125th street that is "exit only" onto the Triboro Bridge, then you sure as hell better be getting onto that bridge. If you decide to be cool and use that lane to get ahead of the traffic in the other two non-"exit only" lanes, then all you're doing is creating a problem. You're going to cut off someone in the middle lane, and while you're waiting to cut in you're preventing the people behind you from actually getting on the bridge; a privelege they have earned by being in the correct lane and by shelling out the six dollars for the toll. Honestly, I couldn't care less if getting on the Triboro Bridge costs you six dollars you don't have and takes you an hour out of your way; wait in traffic in the left two lanes like everybody else. The only way you are allowed to break this rule is if you're not going to screw anybody else. If there are few cars on the road (at maybe 4:00 am) then be my guest. Otherwise, make sure you're in the correct lane. You know the intersection on 96th street and 1st avenue? I've mentioned it before because it's a horrible traffic light situation what with all the traffic getting on and off the FDR Drive. Anyway if you're driving east on 96th street, the right lane is "right turn only" going towards York Avenue. I once saw a guy try to cut into the traffic going onto the FDR from that lane, but a traffic cop wouldn't let him and forced him to make the turn. It was outstanding.

Now this one really pisses me off. U-turns are illegal in most places, and I admit that I have made many U-turns in my day. However, as with most things, I have no problem with people making U-turns as long as you're not screwing anybody else. Make a U-turn when no one is around. However, inasumch as they are illegal, don't start your U-turn when there are cars coming at you from the other direction. You see, this is the opposite of "not screwing anybody else." Never has this bothered me more than yesterday evening. I had to go to the cleaners on Ft. Washington Avenue to drop off my tuxedo before driving home to the East Side, az I drove up Overlook Terrace towards Ft. Wash. Now Overlook Terrace is one lane in each direction, i.e. an inopportune place to make a U-turn. Believe it or not, a car coming down the hill started to make a U-turn just as I got there; I literally had to slam on the breaks. Okay fine, I wasn't in a terrible hurry, whatever. Now a plain old K-turn should get the job done, but this driver was so incompetent that it was more like a pentagram-turn. Hey, just as a little tip, don't be afraid to get up close and personal with the parked cars. You don't need to start reversing when you're 10 feet away from the next car; keep on going until you're a foot away. That way you won't have to change directions 84 times to turn around (a la Austin Powers). At that point I started honking the guy. And then you know what he did? He actually decided better of things and began undoing his K-turn. Az after switching from Drive to Reverse countless times, he ended up going in the same direction as when he started. Needless to say, I was displeased.

Now onto baseball. I was reading baseballmusings.com yesterday, and Pinto wrote a post about Ryan Ludwick, the St. Louis Cardinals outfielder who hit his twelfth home run. He noted that "his .767 slugging percentage is more than twice his .342 batting average, meaning his average hit is more than a double." So that's pretty cool. Since I'm obsessed with slugging percentage these days I decided to check last year's stats to see if anyone accomplished that feat last season. It turns out that among players who qualified for the batting title (bizarrely 3.1 plate appearances per team game, or 502 plate appearances over 162 games), six did it in 2007 (in reverse order):

Jim Thome: .275 AVG, .563 SLG, 119 Hits, 65 1B, 19 2B, 35 HR, totaling 2.042 bases-per-hit (BPH).

Alex Rodriguez: .314 AVG, .645 SLG, 183 Hits, 98 1B, 31 2B, 54 HR, totaling 2.055 BPH.

Adam Dunn: .264 AVG, .554 SLG, 138 Hits, 69 1B, 27 2B, 2 3B, 40 HR, totaling 2.094 BPH.

Prince Fielder: .288 AVG, .618 SLG, 165 Hits, 78 1B, 35 2B, 2 3B, 50 HR, totaling 2.145 BPH.

Ryan Howard: .268 AVG, .584 SLG, 142 Hits, 69 1B, 26 2B, 47 HR, totaling 2.176 BPH.

Carlos Pena: .282 AVG, .627 SLG, 138 Hits, 62 1B, 29 2B, 1 3B, 46 HR, totaling 2.225 BPH.

I would say A-Rod's feat is the most impressive because he's the only one who accomplished it with a batting average above .300. Let's see how these guys are doing this season (all stats through May 20th):

Jim Thome: .206 AVG, .418 SLG, 29 Hits, 15 1B, 6 2B, 8 HR, totaling 2.029 BPH.

A-Rod: Nope.

Adam Dunn: .234 AVG, .508 SLG, 32 Hits, 17 1B, 4 2B, 11 HR, totaling 2.171 BPH.

Prince Fielder: Nope.

Ryan Howard: .183 AVG, .396 SLG, 31 Hits, 16 1B, 4 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, totaling 2.164 BPH.

Carlos Pena: Nope.

Just for fun, let's look at Jason Giambi: .204 AVG, .469 SLG, 23 Hits, 9 1B, 6 2B, 8 HR, 2.299 BPH. Wow!

And now, Lance Berkman, who is absolutely ripping it up so far: .388 AVG, .776 SLG, 66 Hits, 33 1B, 16 2B, 1 3B, 16 Hr, 2.000 BPH. Ridiculous.

Anyway, that was a fun exercise. Let's move on to the reason for this post, the retirement of Mike Piazza.

I don't think I need to go through the stats; he's clearly the greatest hitting catcher of all time, and he's a first ballot Hall-of-Famer. Everyone knows this. I want to share a couple of my own memories of him. A few posts ago I regaled you with the story of the eighth inning of a Mets game against the Braves on June 30th, 2000: "I remember watching the highlights and seeing the fans by the first base line going absolutely berserk. Piazza is running towards first base and when his batted ball clears the fence he pumps his right fist in boyish glee. Here's a guy who's making $90 million and he's going ballistic because he hit a ball over a fence during a game in June." Another one I remember vividly was a game on April 28th, 1999. I was watching it at my cousins' house in Connecticut. The Padres were the defending National League champions; they had lost the World Series to the Yankees in 1998. Trevor Hoffman, the Padres closer, had saved 23 consecutive games and was coming off a season in which he had saved 53 games with a 1.48 ERA. The Mets were down 3-2 in the ninth inning, and Piazza hit a monstrous home run to right field with John Olerud on first. Mets win 4-3. It was such an unbelievable home run; the pitch was probably six inches outside and eight inches high, but nobody I ever watched could hit a ball the other way like Mike Piazza. Nobody got around on pitches with such incredible bat speed like Piazza (except Gary Sheffield). And when he hit a home run, he would scrunch up his face in a classic grimace. It was as though he was so excited to hit a home run but he didn't want to show it, so it turned into a snarl. I remember Roger Clemens beaning him in the head. I remember Clemens throwing the bat-head at him in the World Series. I remember his first hit as a met, an opposite field double into the gap. I remember being at my buddy's house in Great Neck on a Saturday night, when they announced the trade on Sports Center. I remember watching games at home and my grandma saying "that Mike Piazza... oooh is he good looking!" Mike, thanks for all the memories. I'll end with a quote from Mike as reported by the Associated Press: "But I have to say that my time with the Mets wouldn't have been the same without the greatest fans in the world," he said. "One of the hardest moments of my career was walking off the field at Shea Stadium and saying goodbye. My relationship with you made my time in New York the happiest of my career and for that, I will always be grateful."