I Can Be a Real Sports Writer If I Want

Welcome to the delightful time of year when the All-Star selections have been made, and sports writers get to express their (usually foolish) opinions regarding who shouldn't have made it who should have. Now, a lot of the time, writers like to be controversial because it generates publicity. I obviously am not trying to garner any special recognition; in fact, most of my readers hate when I write about sports. Well, it's baseball season, az tough noogies. Here are a couple of parameters I used to create my list (read: spreadsheet, which took like 3 hours to make):
- All of the stats are current as of the first day of July, 2007.
- I kept the rosters the same size, and did my best to replace players with other players who play similar positions.
- I included the final player for whom the fans get to vote after the preliminary all-star selections are made.
- When it came to making my decisions, I didn't even look at these statistics: RBI, Runs, Batting Average, Wins, and Saves.
- In accordance with the Moneyball doctrine, that the worst thing a player can do on a baseball field is make an out, I made On-base Percentage the single most important statistic on my list. In fact, it says somewhere in the book that OBP should be worth around three times as much as Slugging Percentage, az OPS really shouldn't be a straight sum of OBP and SLG. Az what I did was multiply OBP by three and then add that to SLG, and for the purposes of this post, I named that OPS2. Very good players tend to approach a 2.000 OPS2, just for a frame of reference. I'm just trying to do the best I can with the tools available to me. Hey, if I get enough readers, maybe I'll ask that some of you contribute to my baseballprospectus.com fund so I can look up real sabermetric statistics like EqA and VORP.

Anyway, without further adieu, I present to you my all-star snub list. Let's start with the American League:

-Ivan Rodriguez, Catcher, Detroit Tigers: Guh, even his traditional stats are pedestrian, .280 BA, 8 HR, 43 RsBI. According to my stats, he is the single worst position player on my entire list of 53 players. Since when did the Detroit Tigers fans have so much sway over the all-star voting? Did they even realize that Pudge has only four walks this year? FOUR?!?!?! His OBP is a heroic .293! The next lowest OBP on my list is .314, and that's very low for my taste. It goes without saying that his OPS is the lowest on my American League list, and his OPS2 (1.323) is the lowest on the entire list. Pudge, you just don't belong here anymore; please leave.
...should be replaced by...
Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Boston Red Sox: Now this wasn't even fair, because Big Papi was on the ballot at 1B, az the GGoW (Greek God of Walks) didn't even appear on there, az fans didn't even have an opportunity to vote for him. For a power position his stats aren't amazing, but screw the old stats, and lets look at the important ones. He's tied for fifth in the AL in OBP on my list and has a respectable SLG north of .500 resulting in a very nice OPS of .924, and an OPS2 of 1.762. Also, just as a side note, two weeks ago on Firejoemorgan.com, they put a link to Youkilis's DT card on baseballprospectus.com. The URL for each player uses a code for each player's name, the first five letters of his last name followed by the first two letters of his first name. Az Kevin Youkilis becomes "youkike." Don't worry; they have since changed the URL code to "youki________ke."

-Placido Polanco, 2B, Detroit Tigers: This is really a shame because he's really having a fine season. He's batting .330, which means diddly-poo on offense, except for the fact that it means his OBP is at least .330. His OBP is in fact .378, but his SLG is only .421 because he only has 22 extra-base hits (2 HR in 309 ABs) out of his 102. I really don't think anyone with an OPS of below .800 should be on an all-star team.
...should be replaced by...
B.J. Upton, 2B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: His candidacy for the all-star team was hurt by his stint on the disabled list, but I think he has accrued enough raw stats to be eligible. His OBP (.396) and SLG (.545) make for an outstanding OPS (.941) and OPS2 (1.733) for a 2nd baseman. But I think that his production, 26 extra-base hits with nine HRs in 200 at-bats should definitely have attracted more attention. He even has 13 SBs in 18 attempts. Give the kid a chance.

-Michael Young, SS, Texas Rangers: What on Earth is he doing here? Honestly, if you had to have one Ranger an the all-star team (and you do), take Eric Gagne. I'm not saying he should be in, I'm just saying he would be a better selection from the Rangers. Honestly, he has zero all-star caliber statistics. He has a low OBP (.343), a low SLG (.400), not many walks (24), and few extra base hits (27). One can expect such a stat line from a speedy base stealer, but he only has six steals. Michael Young, we have to let you go.
...should be replaced by...
Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: He also suffered because he wasn't on the ballot and didn't have a ton of at-bats (207). However, this did not prevent him from having the highest OPS of any first baseman in the American League (.984). He's hitting a ton of extra-base hits (31 out of 58, including 18 HRs), and walking like crazy (31). If one were to project his stats over a full season, his line would look like this: 44 HR, 112 RsBI, and 100 Runs. Even fans of conventional stats couldn't ignore that. Besides, he's a moneyball guy.

- Carl Crawford, CF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: See, they keep picking the wrong guys from each team. Crawford is a great player, and he's exciting, but he just doesn't have the numbers this year. He's not turning out to be the 30/30 guy he's expected to be; he has only six HRs this year. He gets helped out by the fact that he has 27 other extra-base hits (19 doubles and 8 triples), but combined with a low OBP (.339), his OPS is sub-par (.794). That's just too low.
...should be replaced by...
Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit Tigers: Geez, I didn't even realize that Curt was having a monster year. He has a ridiculous amount of extra-base hits (48), including 11 HRs, 22 doubles, and 15(!) triples. The only thing really hurting him is his low OBP (.343, OPS2 = 1.592), but I think his SLG (.563) more than makes up for it. Also, he has 9 SBs without getting caught once.

- Torii Hunter, CF, Minnesota Twins: He was really the hardest to criticize, because he has compiled some impressive numbers this season, 17 HRs, .550 SLG, .894 OPS. But I just don't think he walks enough (17, .344 OBP), demonstrating a lack of discipline at the plate. An all-star in this league needs to do better. Additionally, and I think this was the clincher, weak as it may be, Hunter is actually hurting his team when he steals bases; he has 11 SBs in 16 attempts. As I said, this was the toughest decision to make, but I think the player replacing him deserves the spot more.
...should be replaced by...
Gary Sheffield, DH/LF, Detroit Tigers: His raw stats compare nicely with Hunter's, 18 HR, .535 SLG, 11 SB, but he gets on base a ton more than Hunter (.401 OBP). His OPS2 just blows Hunter's out of the water (1.733 to 1.582). I wish I had access to fielding statistics because I'd love to see if Hunter's FRAA might be enough to tip the balance.

AL hitting notes: -Alex Rodriguez has the highest OPS2 on the AL list (1.955).
-Grady Sizemore has 50 walks, tied for 2nd in the AL; he had 78 all of last season.

Onto the pitchers!
-John Lackey, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: This stinks, because he's pitching really well this year. A 3.04 ERA is nothing to scoff at these days, especially in the AL. But honestly, I really think he's getting lucky. I wish I had access to BABIP stats, but I'll just have to work with what I have. The beef I have with him are his WHIP, walks and strikeouts. His 1.19 WHIP is respectable, but it's the second highest of any AL all-star. And I don't think he strikes out enough guys (87) to justify the amount of guys he walks (32). His K/BB rate of 2.72 is just too low for an all-star.
...should be replaced by...
Erik Bedard, SP, Baltimore Orioles: His aggregate stats are almost identical to Lackey's, 32 Walks, 1.18 WHIP, 11 HRs against (same as Lackey), and .654 OPS against (.662 for Lackey). But the thing that puts him over the top is the fact that he has the most strikeouts in the AL. He's more than welcome to walk 32 guys as long as he's striking out 129 (4.03 K/BB). Honestly, comparing these two is almost a wash, but I just like Bedard better. He has more repeatable stats than Lackey does, and their ERAs are likely to regress toward each other.

-Gil Meche, SP, Kansas City Royals: He needs to be there to represent KC in the all-star game, but that doesn't mean that someone else doesn't deserve it more. He's by far the worst AL pitcher on the all-star team. His WHIP (1.30), OBP against (.317), SLG against (.407), and OPS against (.724) all rank last among the AL all-stars.
...should be replaced by...
Joe Blanton, SP, Oakland Athletics: His stats are even slightly better than Bedard's, although he strikes out far fewer guys (80). But he also walks fewer (23). His OPS against (.621) is even better than many of the definite all-stars: Josh Beckett (.642), Johan Santana (.655), Justin Verlander (.634), and C.C. Sabathia (.680). Another words, he's nothing flashy, he doesn't strike guys out, he doesn't throw a 95 mph fastball, and he's fat. But that's what makes him an Oakland Athletic; he just knows how to get guys out.

Vote In: Hideki Okajima, RP, Boston Red Sox: At Fenway Park, in 40 IP, he's managed this stat line: 0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 36 Ks, 1 HR against, .216 OBP against, .196 SLG against, and a .412 OPS against. That's just outstanding.

AL pitching notes: - Dan Haren should absolutely be the starter over Josh Beckett. His ERA is over a run better in 27 more innings, his WHIP is better (0.98 to 1.10), he's given up 1 less home run in those same 27 innings, and his OPS against is 69 points lower (.573 to .642), the best in the AL among starters.
- You think Okajima's stats are good? Let's look at the stats for Jonathan Papelbon and J.J. Putz.
Papelbon: In 30 IP, 1.50 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 42 Ks, .235 OBP against, .224 SLG against, and .459 OPS against.
Putz: In 39 IP, 0.92 ERA, 7 walks (!), 0.59 WHIP (!), 43 Ks, .184 OBP against (!), .214 SLG against, and .398 OPS against (!). Yikes!

Let's take five, everybody. Smoke if you got 'em.

Okay, time for the NL. In general, I'd say they did a better job in the NL than the AL. I only had three complaints among the hitters, and here they are:

-Brian McCann, Catcher, Atlanta Braves: He's really only here because the NL can't carry only one catcher, that's all. Granted, he's an outstanding baseball player, and his stats will improve, but I don't think he deserves to be an all-star this year. His OBP is abysmal (.314), and he has the fewest total bases of any all-star (103). A .741 OPS and a 1.369 OPS2 just won't cut it. At least he's not Freddy Sanchez. I'll get there in a minute.
...should be replaced by...
Edgar Renteria, SS, Atlanta Braves: The NL has shortstops galore this year. Later on in my notes section I'll discuss this some more. Renteria has shined in his return to the NL. He's getting on base a lot (.386) and he's even slugging pretty well (.493) for a shortstop. Of all the NL shorstops on this list (and there are five), he has the hightest OPS2 at 1.651.

-Freddy "Dirty" Sanchez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: There are way more deserving Pirates than this one (see: Bay, Jason, Gorzelanny, Tom, and Snell, Ian). I just don't see how anyone can justify his selection; he doesn't even have one good stat in his favor, 19 extra-base hits (1 HR), 12 Walks, .331 OBP, .375 SLG, .706 OPS, 1.368 OPS2, and zero (!) Stolen Bases. He ranks dead last in five of those stats among the other all-stars. Seriously, WTF?!
...should be replaced by...
Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: When PECOTA projected that Ramirez would be just as good, if not better than Jose Reyes, I really didn't believe it, but it happens to be true. He has the highest OPS of any SS in the NL (.880), and in addition to his speed (25 SB in 32 attempts), he also has good power numbers (11 HR, .500 SLG). He's a devastating force at the top of that Florida lineup.

-Carlos Lee, LF, Houston Astros: I don't like doing this, because I voted for him on several ballots and because my roommate hates him. And I love his nickname, El Caballo. By having him replaced, I'm admitting I was wrong and my roommate was right. Bah! Anyway, his raw stats are pretty good (15 HR, .513 SLG), but I was under the impression that he got on base a lot more than he does (.345). And he's definitely hurting his team's chances of scoring runs by attempting to steal (5 SB and 5 CS). His OPS (.854, not bad at all), which I expected to be much higher, is actually the second lowest of any NL OF on this list (the other one, Carlos Beltran has 13 SB in 15 attempts). And even his RBI total (meaningless) of 70 gets inflated by his 13 sacrifice flies, which are actually hurting his team. Az bye bye El Caballo.
...should be replaced by...
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs: I voted for him loads of times, and I can't believe he's not in. His stats this year are better than David Wright's (who also deserves to be here), and light years better than Freddy Sanchez's. Granted, I do think he needs to walk more than 18 times, but his .566 SLG brings his OPS up to a robust .920. Not much else to say about him, he's just having a very solid year.

Vote In: Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies: This last spot was a rough one, and Howard is a rough selection. He's certainly not having as good a year as last year, but he's still been quite productive. His .248 BA looks pretty poor, but he's walking a ton (51), az his OBP is still up there at .382. For that reason alone, I chose him over Adam Dunn. The .931 OPS is also nice.

NL hitting notes: - Barry Bonds absolutely belongs on the all-star team. He has the highest OPS (1.119), OPS2 (2.151), and the most walks (84) in baseball. Granted, these stats were accrued over only 194 at bats, but still.
- How awesome is Chase Utley? As a 2nd baseman, generally considered to be the least productive position, he's managed to compile these stats: .406 OBP, .579 SLG with 48 extra-base hits (15 HRs), and a .985 OPS.
-Here's why Jimmy Rollins does not deserve to be an all-star, his OBP (.328), and OPS (.841) are all lower than the other four SSs on this list. And the .328 OBP is terrible for a leadoff hitter. It's a good thing they moved him down in the lineup.

NL Pitchers, only two complaints here.
- Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: I honestly don't know why he's here. Sure, he strikes out a bunch of guys (116), but that's not enough to justify his selection. A 3.87 ERA and 19 HRs against him are much too high, even though he pitches at Citizen's Bank. His OPS against of .758 is really not good at all, especially considering the fact that some of the all-stars on this list have OPSs lower than that. He's not really having a bad year, I just think there are other candidates more deserving of his spot.
...should be replaced by...
John Maine, SP, New York Mets: His stats stack up nicely against all of Hamels's exept for strikeouts (84). The rest of them are as follows, ERA (2.74 to 3.87 (!)), WHIP (1.15 to 1.22), HR/9 (0.88 to 1.54), OBP against (.287 to .303), SLG against (.348 to .455(!)), and OPS against (.635 to .758). This looks pretty clear to me. Besides, I have a man-crush on Johnny, and he's the only player in baseball history to have the same name as a state. If those aren't criteria for all-star selection then I don't know what is.

- Brian Fuentes, RP, Colorado Rockies: What?! Matt Holliday is already on the roster, az why the hell do you need a Rockies pitcher? And even if you were going to pick one, Jeff Francis is a far better selection. Jesus, how is a guy with a 4.17 ERA an all-star? Allowing men to reach base 32.1% of the time is too much. And for a closer, he doesn't even strike out that many hitters (29 in 36.2 innings). A .734 OPS against for a closer is attrocious, and he has the hightest OPS2 against (1.376) of anyone on the list. It's a good thing the Rockies just replaced him with a new closer. I bet the all-star manager looks like a moron now.
... should be replaced with...
- Chris Young, SP, San Diego Padres: I am absolutely astonished that he's not an all-star. He has the second lowest ERA (2.14) and WHIP (1.09) among starters in the NL. If your job as a pitcher is to allow the fewest amount of batters to reach base, then you really can't do much better than Young; he has the second lowest OBP against (.279), SLG against (.280), and OPS against (.559) among starters in the NL. By the way, the leader in all of these stats is his teammate, Jake Peavy. How the hell is Young not an all-star?!

NL pitching notes: - Let's take a look at Takashi Saito's line: 33.2 IP, 1.34 ERA, 3 Walks (!), 0.72 WHIP, 42 Ks (14 K/BB ratio (!)). Pretty freakin' sweet.
- Cole Hamels has given up 19 HRs in 111.2 innings. Brad Penny, Jake Peavy, and Chris Young have given up seven HRs in 322 innings combined. Wow.
- I almost put El Duque in here, but he's only pitched 74.1 innings this season. Still, his stats are quite good: 2.79 ERA, 1.04 WHIP.

Awesome! Thanks to those who read my longest post ever (3,254 words, not including anything between these parentheses). I breathlessly await your comments.