Friday, November 30, 2007

Church v. Hunter

Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed 32 year old, free agent Center Fielder Torii Hunter, to a five year $90 million deal. Today, the New York Metropolitans traded Lastings Milledge to the Washington Nationals for Catcher Brian Schneider and Center/Left Fielder Ryan Church. Ryan Church will make ~$400,000 this year. Let's compare the two and see who's getting more bang for their buck:

Hunter: 600 ABs, 94 Runs, 172 Hits, 45 2Bs, 1 3B, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 18 SB, 40 BB, 101 Ks, .287 BA, .334 OBP, .505 SLG, .839 OPS, 122 OPS+, 2 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), 8.00 WARP3, .292 EqA, 24 Win Shares, 5.60 RC/27, .64 WPA

Church: 470 ABs, 57 Runs, 128 Hits, 43 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 3 SB, 49 BBs, 107 Ks, .272 BA, .349 OBP, .464 SLG, .813 OPS, 114 OPS+, 14 FRAA, 7.10 WARP3, .288 EqA, 19 Win Shares, 5.70 RC/27, .15 WPA

Church (Projected to 600 ABs): 73 Runs, 163 Hits, 55 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 89 RBI, 4 SB, 63 BBs, 167 Ks, 18 FRAA, 9.06 WARP3, 24 Win Shares

Hunter is clearly better than Church, although not by very much at all. Church has far better plate discipline, as exhibited by his nine more walks in 130 fewer at-bats. And Torii Hunter's highly touted glove is - by at least one metric - only slightly above average, whereas Church played outstanding outfield last year. Church's numbers also suffered because he played his home games at Robert F. Kennedy Stadium. Let's look at his home/road splits:

Home: 229 ABs, 24 Runs, 61 Hits, 20 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 1 SB, 28 BBs, 49 Ks, .266 BA, .356 OBP, .419 SLG, .775 OPS
Away: 241 ABs, 33 Runs, 67 Hits, 23 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB, 21 BBs, 58 Ks, .278 BA, .342 OBP, .506 SLG, .848 OPS

That OPS and SLG difference is ridiculous. Now let's be crazy and project his away stats to 600 ABs and Church becomes a carbon-copy of Torii Hunter except with more strikeouts and more walks:
Away: 600 ABs, 82 Runs, 167 Hits, 57 2B, 2 3B, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB, 52 BB, 144 Ks

I have absolutely no problem paying this man $400,000 to hit 6th in my lineup every night. Not only that, but he'll be hitting in the Mets lineup surrounded by Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Moises Alou, and Carlos Delgado, az he should get much better pitches to hit. This was not nearly as poor a move by Omar Minaya as everyone thinks.