It's All About the Timing

You ever feel like the entire day would go differently if just one thing had gone your way? I'm not saying that this is one of those days; I'm just tossing it out there.

So I drove to the East Side this morning, and here's why. Usually when I want to go home for dinner I just go back to my apartment after work and then drive home. That way I don't need to get up half an hour early. But this time I need to run an errand that just happens to be on my way to the East Side from work. Az everyone knows you need to leave an extra few minutes to account for traffic, az I left around 7:45 from the Heights. Traffic traffic traffic... yada yada yada... and I get off the FDR southbound at 96th Street. Everyone knows that it's a horrible intersection over there because you have traffic going in like 19 directions:

1. Southbound going through to York Avenue.
2. Southbound making a right onto 97th Street.
3. Southbound making a right onto 96th Street.
4. 96th Street making a right entering southbound.
5. 96th Street going straight entering northbound.
6. Northbound going straight onto 96th Street.
7. Northbound making a left towards York Avenue.

Anyway, they have a pretty clever traffic light sequence, but it's still a ridiculous place to be. Az they had a couple of traffic cops there directing cars this morning, and as my light turned green, there was one car making a left towards York Avenue, which prompted the cop to hold us up at the green light for about two seconds. Let's just say I was the very first car that missed the light. If the cop hadn't held us up for those two seconds I would have been gone.

Then, somehow, I managed to get into traffic on East End Avenue of all places! I mean, I guess it makes sense because there's a southbound FDR Drive entrance on 79th Street, but there's NEVER traffic on East End. Not to sound pompous or anything, but when you live on Park Avenue you're paying for the privelege of relative peace and quiet and no buses. When you live on East End Avenue, you're paying for the privelege of relative peace and quiet, no buses, and no traffic (and the hassle of there being no subways around. That's why East End isn't Park Avenue). Whatever.

So I dropped in on the fam for a couple of minutes, then I headed out to go to work. The buses on 79th Street were packed to capacity as usual, az I just walked up to Lexington Avenue over to the 6 train. I took the 6 down two stops to 59th Street, and here's where the real insanity occurs. There's about 20-25 steps that go down to the N, R, W platform on 59th Street, and there were literally 1000 people on those steps going up or down. I have never in my life seen such pedestrian traffic anywhere. I was actually inching my way towards the steps crammed among the throngs of subway riders. From the time I stepped off the 6 train, it must have taken me ten minutes to travel the 50 feet to the steps and then down them. Most of the people were courteous, although I did hear these two gems:

a) There was one "lane" of downward traffic on the steps that was on the left side, and a man going up bumped into a woman going down, az she says "excuse me."
The man replies "You people shouldn't be on this f**king side!"
To which she responds "This is nobody's fault. Let's all try to be more courteous."

b) One woman near me got pressed up against another woman, and the one in back clearly copped a feel, so the one in front says "please be a girl, please be a girl..." She was visibly relieved when she saw that it was a girl.

Anyway, I was only a few minutes late to work, az it all worked out in the end.

Express Check-Out

My brother requested the use of my car this weekend, az I got up early and drove to the East Side and left the car by my parents' apartment. As I usually do when I go to work from home, I took the six train down to 59th street, and then took the N or R, or whatever yellow train stops there to 49th street. When you get out of that station, you are standing at the north end of Times Square. As everyone knows, the billboards there are absolutely huge, and I saw something that was definitely post-worthy.

The problem was that I wasn't going to write up a post just for that, so this morning I planned to do a little bit of research to explain why the Mets should trade for Erik Bedard instead of Johan Santana. I must admit that I let my emotions get the best of me since Bedard starred on my second place fantasy team this year. It turns out that most of the support I expected to find doesn't actually exist. Erik Bedard is actually a few days OLDER than Santana, not a few years younger as I suspected. Santana's K/BB ratio is actually still way way better than Bedard's. The point is, the only thing Bedard has going for him is that he's logged far fewer innings on that left arm of his than Santana has. I just think Bedard is the sexier, less well-known pick in this situation, and he will probably be cheaper in the long run. Even so, I wasn't going to waste a lot of space posting up research that doesn't support my claim, az I decided to just put up some of those thoughts before moving onto the Pastrami of the hot open sandwich that is "Express Check-out."

Anyway, the point of the post is that the billboard I sawr (I've been using that a lot recently. You know like when a 6 year old kid tells you he sawr something?) was an ad for a new show on TBS called "10 Items or Less." I couldn't help but giggle at such a blatant disregard for basic grammar (Ohmygod, it's supposed to be "10 Items or Fewer." Pay attention people). But then I got to thinking, you see those signs by the check out counter at the supermarket all the time, right? English is an always evolving language containing all manner of idiomatic expressions and other exceptions to the rules. Could it be that "10 items or fewer" should be catalogued as an idiom, thereby rendering it grammatically correct? I mean, I definitely say things that are technically not correct, like "what are you up to?" or "this is the sort of nonsense I won't put up with." (Shoutout to Church Dub for that one). I mean people will look at me like I'm a raving lunatic (even moreso than they already do) if I start saying things like "up to what are you?" or "this is the sort of nonsense up with which I will not put." And worse, they'll probably think I'm some sort of maniacal Star Wars groupie. Anyway, the point is you shouldn't be embarrassed to speak the way you want to speak, especially around me. I might correct your grammar from time to time, but that's just my little way of saying I like you and I'm comfortable enough around you to bust your chops a little bit.

A Thursday Quickie

It suddenly occurred to me that after being swamped with work for the last three point five days, I'm actually free right now (I recently decided that I'm not going to use decimals anymore, unless I absolutely must. They're bulky and hard to use. I'm only going to be using fractions from now on. And no messing around with mixed numbers, you tricksters! Anyway, as I was saying, it suddenly occurred to me that after being swamped with work for the last seven-halves days, I'm actually free right now). Seriously, I have nothing to do, az in order to kill time for the last hour of the day, I looked through some of my old posts. My ninth post from August 31st, 2006 was a good one. It is entitled "Away Messages," if anyone is interested in reading it. The point is I mention that I made "a little SNAFU earlier with pronoun/antecedent agreement," which I didn't want to go back and fix. My excuse for that was "I just don't feel like going back to fix it. That's just my little way of sticking it to the man. Power to the people." You might be able to tell where I'm going with this. Basically, this episode reminds me of that commercial, which shows Sprint's CEO telling his assistant that he's now getting these ridiculous rates on his Sprint service. He says "that's just my little way of sticking it to the man." The rest of the commercial goes like this:

Assistant: But, you are the man, sir.
CEO: I know.
Assistant: So you're sticking it to yourself?
CEO: Maybe.

Anyway, it occurred to me while I was reading that post that I AM the man, az I was sticking it to myself. Just to set the record straight, I'm going to post the old sentence and then correct it, all for your viewing, reading, and grammatical pleasure. (Just so you know, the antecedent of the pronoun is "him or her")

Old sentence: "It could be that I really don't like talking on the phone and would prefer to speak in person, in which case I'd be asking for their whereabouts just on the off chance that they're in the neighborhood."

Corrected sentence: "It could be that I really don't like talking on the phone and would prefer to speak in person, in which case I'd be asking for his or her whereabouts just on the off chance that he or she is in the neigborhood."

Okay, so it's a little bit tedious, but at least it's robust. Now I can sleep easier. Easierly. More easily.

A Walk Down the Memory Baseline

Get it? It's like a walk down memory lane except I'm replacing "memory lane" with "memory baseline." It's a play on words. I'm merely using a different kind of place on which one might walk. Sigh...nobody understands me.

Anyway, I went to baseball-reference.com yesterday to look at their stat of the day blog, and all of a sudden my brain froze. Remember the Seinfeld bit from his live on Broadway special? I'm gonna botch this because I can't find some of the exact quotes anywhere, but it goes something like this:

"First ten years of my life I think the only clear thought that I had was 'Get candy!' Everything else was just an obstacle in the way of the candy. So when I first heard about Halloween my brain couldn't process the information. You're like, 'What is this? What did you say? Someone's giving out candy? Who's giving out candy? EVERYONE WE KNOW is just giving out candy? I gotta be a part of this! Take me with you! I'll do anything they want. . . I can wear that. I'll wear anything I have to wear. I'll do anything I have to do to get the candy from those fools who are so stupidly giving it away.'"

Anyway, that basically describes my reaction yesterday when I discovered that baseball-reference play index is entirely free until Friday. For those of you not in the know, the baseball-reference play index is an invaluable tool for looking up baseball statistics. For example, if you wanted to find out which players have ever batted .320, hit 25 HR, walked 100 times, and stolen 50 bases in the same season, you would just type those filters into the system, and the play index would produce the answers (there's only one, Joe Morgan in 1976). Usually the system will output only the top hit in the search and then skip the next 135 or so. Only paid subscribers have access to all that the play index has to offer, but this week it's all free. Az I was getting ready to look up all sorts of ridiculous s**t when my brain refused to behave itself. There I am, like a kid in a candy store, and there's just too much from which to choose. So this morning I decided to just fiddle around with the play index figuring that some ideas might pop into my head. Az I put in the search parameters that would sort every Mets batter from each season starting in 1990 by games played. So I'm browsing the Mets teams from each of those seasons, and something caught my eye in 1999, and that's where the idea for this post begins.

Remember John Olerud? He was well known for his sugary sweet lefty swing and his propensity for wearing a batting helmet while playing 1st base because his mother asked him to do so. He played for the better part of a decade and a half for the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, and Seattle Mariners, and finished his career with very short stints with the Yankees and Red Sox. I remember him for his three seasons with the Mets in the late 1990s and for one big moment in the playoffs in 1999. I remember it clearly because the Mets started their National League Divisional Series on the road in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, so the game started at around 11:00 EST. Since it was past my bed time I held my radio under the covers and listened to the game until I fell asleep. I remember hearing Olerud hit a home run against Diamondbacks ace Randy Johnson, a feat made even more spectacular because he had only given up one homer to a lefty all year, and to this day has only given up 24 in his career (Oddly enough, I was at a Mets-Astros game earlier in the year, and Johnson who played for Houston at the time demolished the Mets 10-1. The only run he gave up was an opposite-field homer by the right-handed Roger Cedeno). The Mets went on to win that game 8-4, and then went on to win the series three games to one on Todd Pratt's walkoff home run at Shea Stadium in game four. I know I didn't see it live because it happened on Shabbat. I had gone for a walk with a friend that day, and we ended up walking from the Upper East Side all the way across the Queensboro Bridge and back. I was wearing my Mets jersey, and just as we were getting back to my building a man on a bicycle yells out "Mets won!" Little did I know what was in store for me when I turned on Sportscenter to see the highlights after Shabbat ended.

Anyway, the point is that John Olerud will always have a special place in my memories. So I'm looking at the 1999 Mets, and it occurred to me that Olerud really was a darn good hitter, az I clicked on him, taking me to his baseball-reference page. One of the cool things on baseball-reference is the comparisons they have for each player at each age. For example, on Alex Rodriguez's page, his top comparison at the age of 20 was Jimmie Foxx, at 21 it was Frank Robinson, at 22 it was Johnny Bench, at 23 it was Ken Griffey Jr., etc. For John Olerud, his top comps for ages 31 through 34 was Don Mattingly. Interesting. So I clicked on the link that shows you a comparison of the two players, and here were my findings:

Olerud (1989-2003): 6994 AB, 1076 Runs, 2079 Hits, 473 2B, 12 3B, 239 HR, 1145 RBI, 1198 BB, 935 SO, .297 BA, .402 OBP, .471 SLG, 11 SB, .873 OPS, 131 OPS+

Mattingly (1982-1995): 7003 AB, 1007 Runs, 2153 Hits, 442 2B, 20 3B, 222 HR, 1099 RBI, 588 BB, 444 SO, .307 BA, .358 OBP, .471 SLG, 14 SB, .829 OPS, 127 OPS+

These numbers sure do look uncannily similar. The only real differences are that Olerud struck out and walked about twice as often as Mattingly did, however the ratios are almost identical (.780 K/BB for Olerud, and .755 for Mattingly). Now don't get me wrong; I love Don Mattingly. I once saw an amazing poster of him in Cooperstown where he's dressed in a pin-striped suit, and he's holding his bat like a gun, and the title says "Hit Man." Outstanding. The point is, as much as I loved him, I just don't see how he can make the Hall of Fame. I'd be surprised to see Olerud garner much support once he gets onto the ballot, and I'd say his numbers are at the very least just as good as Mattingly's.

I Can't Believe I Have More Driving Complaints

I thought I had exhausted my supply of driving pet-peeves, yet clearly I have not. I realized two more last night. Not even one! Two! Well I guess one of them isn't really a pet-peeve; it's just the height of bad manners. Anyway, let's get started.

So last night, I, along with seemingly millions of other Jews, attended the Professional Bull-Riders rodeo at Madison Square Garden (the world's most famous arena!). Afterwards, several hundred thousand of us went to Jerusalem II to get pizza and sushi. Az there I am getting into my car on Broadway between 36th and 37 streets, and I want to make a right onto 36th street so I can go towards the West Side highway. We make our way westward, and I think it was between 9th and 10th Avenues that there was a truck double-parked, which was fine. There was clearly plenty of room for another car to get by, az it was no biggie. But here's the thing; there was a taxi that was dropping off a passenger, and he was stopped right behind the truck in such a way that NOBODY could get by. I mean, come on man! A little common sense! Either pull up another 20 feet in front of the truck, or pull back ten feet. Either way cars will be able to get by. Why do you have to stop in the exact wrong spot? It was entirely uncool and entirely unnecessary.

Here's the other one, and this one is just ridiculous. This is the type of thing that only happens when the other person is either a complete jerk or completely ignorant of his/her surroundings. Here's the sitch: I'm driving uptown on the West Side highway, and you know how there are traffic lights until about 59th street? Az I'm at 57th street and this yutz in a Mini Cooper is right in front of me. We've already gone through a couple of yellow lights, and I'm really anxious to make it through the last two traffic lights. So what does the moron in the Mini do? He slows down as the light is turning yellow and so do I, but at the last second he decides "hey, I can make the light," az he speeds up and goes through the next two lights leaving me stranded at 57th street. I was absolutely furious, as my passengers can attest. That's the sort of jerk move that you really have to try to do. It takes actual effort to be that ignorant. Meanwhile, he was probably up by 96th street by the time I got a green light. I'm really starting to believe that 99% of drivers are just plain bad.

I Think I Need to Change the Name of This Blog

Seriously, I should change the description to "One Man's Thoughts on Baseball, Driving, and Grammar." That's kinda like the post I had a while ago (Lighters, Shavers, and Pens, Oh My!), in which I note the absurdity of the Bic company, which sells three completely unrelated items. But if I changed the description I feel like I wouldn't have any readers. Hell, I don't have any readers anyway, but that's not important. It's not about how many people read; it's about how much I can get away with making fun of you all. I mean, it's about having a place for me to jot down my thoughts. Besides, I like "Schmutter's idea palace." If anyone has a suggestion for a replacement name, comment away.

Anyway, the point is I realized another driving pet-peeve last night, and this one really bakes my noodle (yeah, that's right. I'm trying to resurrect that fantastic line from the Matrix. We'll see if it takes hold). It's honestly one of the first things you learn when you take driver's ed, and it's something that is absolutely dripping with so much common sense that it almost boggles the mind that people don't do it. I'm pleased to present to you (drum roll please....) the turn signal! I'm going to share with you two instances from last night in which the turn signal was used (or not used, sigh...) in horribly noodle-baking ways:

1. After eating dinner at home, I drove over to my brother's apartment on 77th street between First and Second Avenues. I parked my car on 77th street, which goes westbound. After my visit (yes, don't worry, my nephew is extremely cute), I got back into the car and intended to continue west on 77th street. There was one of them ugly grey hatchback cars in front of me, and he was driving rather slowly. We arrived at the green light on Second Avenue at which I wanted to make a left turn, and the dude in front of me, continuing to go slowly makes a left turn (without signaling) into the second lane from the left. I was going to make another left onto 76th street, az I turned into the very left lane, and continued slowly towards the red light at the intersection. Then that very same dude cut into the left lane in front of me (again without signaling) and then we both turned onto 76th street. By this point I'm getting a bit exasperated. Now we're driving eastbound on 76th street towards First Avenue (again, very slowly), and once the light turns green he turns left onto First Avenue again without signaling!!! I would have been ahead of him two turns ago and not had to deal with him if he had just signaled once! It was one of the most frustrating things because I mamash had no idea what he would do next. It can be a very disturbing experience to have uncertainty on the road. The traffic system works on predictability, and when one yutz decides to be unpredictable, the entire system can break down.

2. After I finally arrived (uneventfully) back in the Heights, I decided to get Erin (my car. It's a hot name) a much deserved, and much needed car wash. I picked up a friend for company, because it's one of those cool car washes where they let you sit in your car while it goes through the conveyer. Az we're on the way back, driving south on Broadway at around 200th street, and we're stopped at a red light behind another car in the left lane. What happens? The light turns green, and all of a sudden, the guy in front of me puts on his left turn signal and makes me wait behind him until he lets the cars from the other direction go by (I've mentioned something like this before in my post "ACPJrB Redux," but bear with me anyway). As my friend can attest, I started going ballistic; I was yelling, and shaking, and quaking, and gibbering like a madman. If you don't have your turn signal on when that light turns green, I don't care if it takes you eleven hours out of your way, you better freakin' go straight.

It's so simple, my friends. The turn signal is there for a reason. I think I use it even more often than I should; I even use it in empty parking lots. On the road, it's always better to be safe than sorry.

Now let's move on to something else. Last week my brother asked me about two pitchers, Goose Gossage and Lee Smith. I won't go through the entire statistical analysis, but the point of the discussion was that I wouldn't vote one into the Hall of Fame without the other. The basis for my claim was that Smith had better overall stats, but Gossage pitched several hundred more innings. I determined that Smith's case was slightly better than Gossage's, but my brother disagreed. He called me last night and asked me try to figure out how important Innings Pitched should be when determining a pitcher's greatness. I told him I would do some research and get back to him, az here it goes.

I went to baseballprospectus.com, because I know I can find VORP listings there. Again, VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player, and the number represents an amount of runs. Another words, a player whose VORP is 35 is worth 35 more runs to his team than the average bench player. I figured that VORP was a good metric to use for this analysis because it's a sabermetric counting stat. What I mean is that most of the sabermetric stats (ERA+, EqA, OPS+, etc.) are either only relevant for hitting, or are rate stats that don't take into account how much you've played. For example, a player who has only one at-bat and hits a home run will have an astronomically high OPS+, but that player is clearly less valuable than someone who hits solidly for an entire season. So I chose VORP because it will reward players who accumulated the most numbers.

That being said, here are a few observations about my results:
-The top 34 in VORP for pitchers in 2007 were starters. Rafael Betancourt was 35th at 39.8.
-The Baseball Writers Associaton of America did well in voting for the Cy Young award, at least according to this metric.
-I can't believe how good John Smoltz still is; he was eleventh in all of baseball and sixth in the National League in VORP at 56.7.

The actual results of the study are as follows:
Pitching a lot of above-average innings is extremely valuable. The top twelve pitchers in VORP pitched over 200 innings. 13th was Erik Bedard, whose strong season (6th in ERA+, 3rd in the AL) was cut short by an injury. C.C. Sabathia won the Cy Young award in the American League, in large part because he pitched 40.1 more innings than Josh Beckett, even though the rest of their stats are comparable. Beckett's ERA+ was 145 to Sabathia's 143, but Sabathia's VORP was quite a bit higher, 65.2 (3rd in MLB, 1st in the AL) to Beckett's 58.6.
Here's another example of the value of pitching a lot of innings: Of everyone in the top 30 in VORP, the lowest ERA+ by far belongs to Joe Blanton, a slightly above average 106. Blanton's ERA+ was tied for 48th best in baseball last year. However, since he pitched 230 innings of 106 ERA+, he was 25th in baseball in VORP. Another words, being a slightly above average pitcher who eats innings is immensely valuable in this day and age.

In conclusion one can see... wait a minute. This is not a five-paragraph essay, and I'm not in sixth grade. The point is, I'm pretty sure my brother was right in arguing that Gossage had a better Hall of Fame case than Lee Smith. I'm also pretty sure that Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, C.C. Sabathia, and Fausto Carmona are going to make a s**t load of money over the next 10-15 years.

Ah, The Holidays

What's the most important holiday among Christians, Catholics, and Protestants? Is it Christmas? I dunno. I guess since there are two Federal holidays this time of year (Christmas and New Years), we call this time "the holidays." Aren't we Jews pompous? Oh sure, the rest of the world can have "the holidays," but in September and October we have "the high holidays." This is neither here nor there; it just came to me when I was about to start typing. Now we'll return to our regularly scheduled absurdity.

Let's add this one on to my ever-growin' list of driving pet-peeves. Let's say you're double-parked because you went in to the bodega to get a soda, or you're picking up/dropping off a friend. Here's what you're not allowed to do: don't just start driving if there is moving traffic; only start driving once there is a red light and cars are not moving. Here's an example that I hope will demonstrate my point. Let's say I'm driving uptown on a one-way street, let's say Amsterdam Avenue. Now let's say I want to make a right turn onto 81st Street. If you're double-parked on the east side of the street close to the end of the block, I will have to make my right turn from the second lane. If you're all of a sudden gonna start driving after being double-parked, I have no idea what to do! Are you gonna turn also? Are you gonna let me by so I can turn? Are you gonna speed up and get ahead of me and go straight so I have to jam on the breaks to prevent a collision? Next time, start driving when it's a red light so nobody will have to deal with your unpredictability. Seriously, drivers need to have more consideration for their fellow travelers. The roads are dangerous enough without your selfishness and disregard for others. It's very possible that I expect too much from other drivers, but I think it's much more likely that most people just don't care.

I was just typing my friend an e-mail, and I was saying how each time I go to Cafe K for lunch I get the same exact panini; I get the square panini bread with pesto sauce, mozzarella cheese, tomatoes, and basil. However, I always get charged a different amount; I've been charged as little as $4.50 and as much as $9.25 for the same food. Then I said that it might be a function of who is manning the cash register. That got me thinking. I'm using the word "manning" as a verb. The infinitive form of the word would be "to man." I will now look up the word "man" and look at the verb listing. Okay, done. Here's the one I'm looking for (from dictionary.com):

tr.v. manned, man·ning, mans
2. To take stations at, as to defend or operate: manned the guns.

Then there's a big gray box in which dictionary.com goes through a whole explanation of the word "man" as a general term for humankind. I won't go through that whole thing. The point is, I think I'm gonna start using the word "woman" as a verb, you know like "...and then she started crying! I can't believe she womanned me like that!" or "Uh oh! Our seven person meal just turned into a 19 person meal! Woman the kitchen!" This might get me into deep doodoo.

Anyway, I'm listening to the radio today, and from 1:00 to 2:00 every weekday, 1050 ESPN Radio broadcasts one hour of the Mike Tirico Show. Since every big radio host gets to go on vacation, they have all the understudies doing the shows today, az filling in for Mike Tirico today is Erik Kuselias (whenever he introduces himself it sounds like he's saying Eric Asillius, az that's how it's pronounced in case you were curious). He fills in on the radio a lot, usually for one of the Mike's on Mike & Mike in the Morning (curiously, neither of those Mike's is Tirico), az I've heard him enough times to be used to him. I don't find him that great; I think he's a bit arrogant, but he can be entertaining at times. He had an interesting segment today in which he listed the top-five awkward holiday moments. I though they were pretty clever, az I'll go ahead and list them here:

1. You get a really bad gift in person and you have to pretend you like it.
2. Someone at the company/family holiday party has too much to drink and either makes a fool out of himself by being overly friendly with you ("I love you maaan"), or finally lets out his anger and gets violent.
3. You give your significant other a gift, and someone else gives him/her a similar gift of greater value. (Caution!!!! Hypothetical scenario!!!! I repeat! Hypothetical!!!!) Like if I get my girlfriend an ipod shuffle, and her co-worker gets her an iphone.
4. You go to your significant other's house for dinner and his/her parents make your relationship a lot more serious than it is by asking you important questions about your future.
5. You and your significant other exchange gifts that are on completely different levels. Like if I were to give my (again hypothetical) girlfriend a new toothbrush, and she gets me a platinum watch.

I just thought some of those were interesting. Hope you enjoyed today's post. Happy painting, and G-d bless, my friends.

This Never Happens

A friend called me up last night for a favor at about 9:00. She asked me if I could drive her to the West Side just to drop her friend off, and then we could head back up to the Heights. Now, normally this would be the exact opposite of problematic, but in this case, my roommate had asked me if he could use my car to visit his little friend in Teaneck. The point is that I was forced to use my other roommate's car, inasmuch as he was gracious enough to offer it. He might have gone himself, but he goes to bed early, and it was already about 9:45(!) by the time we left. Anyways, we get down to the West Side and drop the girl off, and by this time I'm getting the mad munchies. That might've been due to the conversation we had in my apartment right before we left about rolling Js. Or it might just have been due to the fact that I hadn't eaten anything since that enormous shwarma I had from Grill Point five hours earlier. In any event, I needed some junk food, so I drove us over to Duane Reade on 106th Street and Broadway. I parked and we got out of the car. Now, when I get out of my car and lock the doors with the remote, the headlights turn off automatically. I drive a 2005 Acura TL. One time I had to rig my license plate to stay attached to the car using pieces of a wire hanger. My roommate drives a 1997 Geo Metro. He has his side mirrors hanging on for dear life with pieces of duct tape. My purpose in taking that unnecessary shot at my roommate's car is to demonstrate that his car, while it works perfectly and purrs like a playful kitten, isn't as technologically advanced as mine. Az when we got out of the car and went to Duane Reade, the headlights were still on. My friend said "isn't that bad?" So I'm like, "It'll be fine; we'll be in there for five minutes." Lo and behold, we get back in the car and it wouldn't start. Kudos to the girl for not crying, because the only cure-all for crying that I know is a hug, and I'd be way too nervous to do that. Besides, she assures me that my hugging her would only result in more crying, whatever that means. Anyway, if it were my car, I would just call Acura roadside and they would be there in like half an hour and jump-start the car for free. The last thing I wanted to do was call AAA and pay them with my million dollars bill, which I printed from my computer (see SB email #88, "Couch Patch." Jesus, it's been a long time since I referenced homestarrunner.com. Incidentally, that was the first SB e-mail I ever watched). I had actually been in a somewhat similar position last year when my old roommate's sister stalled his car on the West Side. In that situation, he called all his hatzolah buddies, and after a makeshift party right there on the sidewalk, one of them took out his cables and jump-started the car. So I figured I might as well do the same thing, inasmuch as my roommate was probably asleep and wasn't picking up his phone. I had figured that maybe you had to do something special to the car when it acts up, you know like kicking one of the tires, elbowing the dashboard, and turning the ignition while picking your nose. Who knows what sorts of tricks you need to know with these 1997 Geos? Anyway, I started calling every hatzolah guy I knew (and some I didn't know). One was asleep, one was in Florida, one's car was in the shop, and two didn't pick up. By this time, my other roommate finally answered his phone, az I asked him to wake up our roommate to tell him that his car wouldn't start. He gets on the phone and says "hit 'lock,' 'unlock,' and then 'lock' again on the remote control, and then try the ignition." And it worked! I wasn't really overly surprised that it worked, but the real astounding thing was that I was 100% correct about there being some kind of trick to starting the car. That never happens! What I mean is I'm right all the time because I'm ridiculously smart and know a lot of stuff, but in my capacity as Captain Optimistic Guy, I've come to realize that things don't always work out the way you want them to, no matter how much you hope. But this time I was right! It was freakin' unbelievable. Az there we are, sitting in the car, about to pull out of the parking spot, when one of those coach buses pulls up right next to us and starts letting out a busload of senior citizens in wheel chairs. An hour and a half later (really only like six minutes), we were on our way back to the Heights. It was an almost perfect night.

Cos-K?

No no, don't worry; it's not a math post. It's another baseball post!

I was reading baseball prospectus today, and they have a highlight video of new Cubs right-fielder Kosuke Fukudome. I watched the video and closely scrutinized his stance and swing. The first thing I noticed was "ohmygod, he's a carbon copy of Kaz Matsui," the former Mets "savior" who couldn't handle the New York pressure, yet managed to make the World Series as a member of the Colorado Rockies. I always thought that there was something mechanically wrong with Matsui's swing from the left side. When he would bat righty, it looked more natural when he drove the ball, like he actually knew what he was doing. But when he hit lefty, it looked like he was always stepping away from the plate with his front leg. This is symptomatic of many Japanese imports (Hideki Matsui, Ichiro, Akinori Iwamura), although I think it's less pronounced with H. Matsui. It appears that all these players have been trained to begin their natural stride towards first base during their swing so they have that extra quick step getting out of the batters box. I think this is an OK approach to hitting if you have little power (Ichiro was 2nd in lowest Isolated Power in 2007 for players who qualified for the batting title and hit over .300 at .080. Luis Castillo, another lefty slap-hitter was first. Ichiro was tops in 2006. Isolated Power measures your propensity for getting extra-base hits by subtracting your batting average from your slugging percentage.), like Ichiro, Kaz, and Iwamura, because when you're relying on your speed, that quick stride to first base can help a lot. But if you're a power hitter like Hideki Matsui or Kosuke Fukudome, you need to be stepping in towards the plate so you can get your powerful body behind your swing. I think Hideki figured it out early on; he "only" hit 16 home runs in his first season in America, but since then has hit 31, 23, and 25 in his other full seasons. We'll see how long it takes for Fukudome to adjust to American pitching.

Now, I'm far from being a good hitter. Anyone who has watched me hit over the last year or two knows that I basically hit line drives to center/right-center field, unless I'm deliberately aiming somewhere else. I think in 14 softball games last summer in about 40 plate appearances, I probably got out 18 times, walked eight times, and got 14 hits (wow, a .550 OBP and a .469 SLG. A not too shabby 1.019 OPS. Again, I was just estimating; I might be slightly off), which is great, but only one of those hits was for extra-bases (a double in our last regular season game). One thing I really cut down on was pop-ups. When I was in high-school, I was primarily known for my slick-fielding; I wasn't much of a hitter (G-d knows, we even had a DH for me a few times, and I was the 2nd baseman!). I used to ALWAYS step away from home plate with my front foot, so I would pop out to 2nd base/right field all the time. I really worked hard on trying to keep my body in close to the plate while I swung, so I finally started getting my not-as-ample-as-now-yet-still-ample-enough body weight behind my swing, and I started to drive the ball a little bit.

Kaz, and Ichiro should be trying to hit a lot of bloopers the other way as lefties, but I think they look a whole lot better when they swing at inside pitches (it's hard to pull your body away from an inside pitch and still get decent wood on it).

Of course, these things I've noticed could just be a trick of the camera angle, which usually comes in over the pitcher's right shoulder, but I don't really think so.

Anyway, I wish Fukudome all the success in the world; he obviously knows a ton more about hitting than I do (although I'll be surprised if he has a better OPS than I do this year ;)

Who Knew?

Seriously, where would I be without Joe Posnanski? He actually writes for a living, and consequently his blog is far better than mine. But I'm just a kid, right? Anyway, he made a very astute point today, one that I never would have realized without his help. I'm almost ashamed to put this in print (some of you will be suprised about this), but it seems that Keith Hernandez was at least as good as Don Mattingly. I would never have noticed this, especially because I grew up watching Donnie play, and Keith's best days were already behind him by 1988. Why don't we just dive into the stats, okay?

Overall:
Mattingly: 7003 AB, 1007 Runs, 2153 Hits, 442 2Bs, 20 3Bs, 222 HR, 1099 RBI, 588 BB, 444 Ks, .307 BA, .358 OBP, .471 SLG, .829 OPS, 127 OPS+, .300 EqA, 43 FRAA, 84.7 WARP3, 1127 RC, 6.06 RC/27, 249.85 WS
Hernandez: 7370 AB, 1124 Runs, 2182 Hits, 426 2Bs, 60 3Bs, 162 HR, 1071 RBI, 1070 BB, 1012 Ks, .296 BA, .384 OBP, .436 SLG, .820 OPS, 128 OPS+, .300 EqA, 207 FRAA, 112.5 WARP3, 1274 RC, 6.26 RC/27, 295.45 WS

Those numbers are really, really close. The counting stats are so similar it's almost a wash (Hits, 2Bs, RBI), and the rate stats are also nearly indistinguishable (OPS, EqA). If you take apart OPS, you start to see the differences; Hernandez walked A LOT more than Mattingly, but Mattingly hit more home runs to drive up that SLG. Otherwise, the only stats that really separate the two are strikeouts (you know how I feel about those) and fielding. Joe Posnanski put it best: "And while Mattingly was an outstanding defensive first baseman, Hernandez was a groundbreaking one, maybe the best defensive first baseman ever to play the game." Hernandez's fielding was worth 207 more runs than an average 1st baseman, while Donnie's was worth a respectable 43.

They both had their share of fantastic seasons; they both won an MVP award and finished in the top ten in voting three other times. One could argue that Mattingly should have won the award in both 1985 (when he actually won) and in 1986 when he had an even better season, although he lost that award to a tiny Texan pitcher named Clemens. Anyway, here are those seasons:

Mattingly (1985): 652 ABs, 107 Runs, 211 Hits, 48 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 35 HR, 145 RBI(!), 56 BB, 41 Ks, .324 BA, .371 OBP, .567 SLG, .938 OPS, 156 OPS+, .327 EqA, 5 FRAA, 10.9 WARP3, 136 RC, 7.72 RC/27, Gold Glove (1st of 9 in 10 years)
Mattingly (1986): 677 ABs, 117 Runs, 238 Hits, 53 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 53 BB, 35 Ks(!), .352 BA, .394 OBP, .573 SLG, .967 OPS, 161 OPS+, .336 EqA, 9 FRAA, 12 WARP3, 150 RC, 8.68 RC/27, Gold Glove
Hernandez (1979): 610 AB, 116 Runs, 210 Hits, 48 2Bs, 11 3Bs, 11 HR, 105 RBI, 80 BB, 78 Ks, .344 BA, .417 OBP, .513 SLG, .930 OPS, 151 OPS+, .324 EqA, 21 FRAA, 11.4 WARP3, 135 RC, 8.66 RC/27, Gold Glove (1st of 11 in a row)

Geez, these guys are so similar it's almost scary. It is important to me that these stats remain unfrightening, especially since Don Mattingly could still get voted into the Hall of Fame.

Insanity

Okay, since this stuff was way too ridiculous and needs to be posted for posterity, I'll just copy and paste these e-mails. A lot of this will sound like incoherent, stream of consciousness type stuff. I can be the James Joyce of bloggers! Chrysostomos! Anyway, I took out everyone's names except for my own. Enjoy:

On 12/14/07, --------< --------->wrote: I think the most important thing to come out of this report is that we finally know how Randy Velarde made that unassisted triple play. Thoughts?

-----Original Message-----From: ------- <----------->To: ---------- <---------->Cc: noah.schmutter@bankofamerica.comSent: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 10:08 am
Subject: Re: Mitchell Report
We saw that play live! I'm having a long conversation with my brothers about this. To sum up my feelings briefly: None of this should surprise or really disappoint anyone. (I'm mildly disappointed to see Matt Franco's name on the list--he was our favorite player on the late '90s Mets teams.) I also don't think any info in here should factor into MVPs, Cy Youngs, HoF votes, etc.--the widespread availability of 'roids made it pretty much a level playing field over the past decade. Although I will admit to some serious schadenfreude upon seeing nine (9!) pages devoted to the attempted murderer Clemens.

On 12/14/07, Schmutter, Noah <mailto:noah.schmutter@bankofamerica.com> wrote:
Yeah, Matt Franco was our neighbor, so I'm a little upset to see him here too.I direct you to July 10th, 1999, when in a game started by none-other than maniacal juicer Andy Pettitte, Matt Franco ended a game against Mariano Rivera, with a walk-off single in the 9th inning. I'm also upset to see the formerly squeaky-clean Josias Manzanillo in the report. If anyone can sum up the Mets history of lying and cheating it's the formerly squeaky-clean Josias Manzanillo. Time to throw away all my Josias Manzanillo jerseys, including the home pinstripe, home white, alternate black, and away gray jerseys. Also the two starting lineup figures I have of him, the one where he's wearing his pitcher's jacket while leading off of first, and the other of his staredown as he looks in for the sign. Time to take down my life-size Fathead(TM) wall-decoration of Josias Manzanillo, and to destroy his bobble-head. I remember Josias Manzanillo Bobble Head Day at Shea. Ahh the memories. Josias, you have stolen my innocence, popped my proverbial cherry. I don't know about any of you, but his betrayal will tarnish my enjoyment of baseball forever.

From:--------- [mailto:---------] Sent: Friday, December 14, 2007 10:22 AMTo: ----------- Cc: Schmutter, Noah
Subject: Re: Mitchell Report
As I said to you last year about Bonds, McGwire, and the Hall of Fame, I think the players from this steroid era should go into the Hall if they have the numbers for it. No asterisks or other symblos should go along with them. It will be pretty obvious as the years pass that the late 90's to the mid-aughts was the "steroid era", just like the '80's were the "dead-ball era". And all statistics will be measured with that in mind. That being said, I gotta say that I'm more surprised at the names that DIDN'T appear in the report.... Where was A-Rod? Frank Thomas? Brady Anderson? Luis Gonzalez? Nick Punto!!! To name a few.Also, where were the Red Sox players?Also, did you know the Blue-Jays signed Eckstein to a 1-year deal? And it actually IMPROVED their offensive production at that position? I really don't know which story is more amazing.

On 12/14/07, Schmutter, Noah <mailto:noah.schmutter@bankofamerica.com> wrote: Interestingly, I noticed that among all players, Nick Punto was dead last (1,018th) in VORP last year at -27.1. Good thing they signed a power hitting shortstop to join him in the lineup. Oh no, wait, they signed Adam Everett, who at least was 961st in the league with a - 7.0 VORP. Meanwhile, John McDonald clocks in at 973rd in the league with a -7.8 VORP. However, McDonald (obviously) dominates Eckstein in Fielding Runs Above Average 40 to -10

-----Original Message-----
From: ----------To: noah.schmutter@bankofamerica.com; ---------Sent: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 10:40 am
Subject: Re: Mitchell Report
Damn you Schmutter!! I didn't realize Pettite's full name was "Manical juicer Andy Pettite", while the illustrious Matt Franco's full name wasn't even Matthew Franco. (or maybe it's Matisyahu Franco).

Anyways, F.P. Santangelo!?!? I mean really? He's got one of my most favorite baseball names with initials as a first name. (Other favorites include: U.L. Washington, R.J. Reynolds, C.C. Sabathia, J.J. Hardy, and J.C. Romero). Now his name is tarnished forever. Congradulations to U.L. Washington who now tops this illutrious list.

The King is Dead. Long Live the King.

From: ------- [----------] Sent: Friday, December 14, 2007 10:51 AM To: Schmutter, Noah
Cc: ----------
Subject: Re: Mitchell Report
Two quick unrelated notes:(1) None of the doubly initialed ballplayers mentioned above has as great a name as R.W. McQuarters. Just roll that around in your mouth a bit--it feels great.(2) My father could never remember Josias Manzanillo's first name, so in our house, we always called him Manzy Manzanillo. I still laugh whenever I see that. VORP does not include fielding, right? Because McDonald was supposed to be a pretty good fielder, I think. I'm too lazy to do the research--I'll just wait for it to show up on Tanblog. I'm actually surprised that Xtein could only get a 1-year deal--does that mean baseball GMs are getting smarter?

-----Original Message-----From: Schmutter, Noah <mailto:noah.schmutter@bankofamerica.com>To: ------ <--------->Cc: ---------Sent: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 10:56 am
Subject: RE: Mitchell Report
You really don't think F.P. Santangelo is a better name than R.W. McQuarters. I think it's a lot closer than you think it is. Also, I find it very hard to believe that R.W. is actually shorter than his first name. Hold on, I'm gonna look it up. Okay, R.W. is exactly the same amount of syllables as Robert William. There is absolutely no point in shortening his name. None. No point in shortening Frank-Paul to F.P. but that's neither here nor there. The point is, no one's nickname should be Nook, even if he took steroids. No one will respect you with a name like that.

From:---------- [----------] Sent: Friday, December 14, 2007 11:01 AMTo:---------; Schmutter, Noah

Subject: Re: Mitchell Report
Believe you me, I know RW McQuarters (or as we Giants fans call him Runny Waters McQuarters). But I was limiting myself to baseball peeps.Gritstein Von Hustlehoff is gonna make some serious bank for that 1-year deal. I have to imagine that the Jays could do a helluva lot more with that $4MM. And to think that it's the Jays and GM J.P. Ricciardi (another initialized first name) who should know better given his references in Moneyball.

-----Original Message-----
From: Schmutter, Noah To: -----------; -----------Sent: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 11:12 am
Subject: RE: Mitchell Report
Yeah, there's no way that was a Ricciardi move. That one definitely came from higher up, sort of a "John Paul! I want that Eck-man! Get that company laptop out of your pants and call his agent!" J.P isn't shortening John Paul either. What's the deal?! I think if you want to have a nickname or initials, it better be shorter than your actual name. Man law?

On 12/14/07, --------< --------->wrote:
I assume you mean "shorter" in the syllables department. But regardless, no way on that Man-law. R.W. needs to stick around, and Jean-Paul just sounds fruity.. JP Losman sounds bad enough as it is. I also love that Keith Law's nick-name is K-Law, or even sometimes Klaw(tm).

I neeeeeeed to get out more.

Kosher Lunch, A Bargain!

Last Friday, I went to Milk and Honey to grab a slice of pizza or two for lunch. Friday is easy because a lot of people don't take lunch, so I rarely see anyone I know, az there are no distractions. At MnH they have this deal where you get a free canned drink with your purchase of two slices of pizza. Az there I am with my slices and my soda and I notice the nice Asian girl at the register ringing me up for the soda! Now I'm thinking maybe she was trying to Jew me out of $1.25; maybe her instructions are to ring people up for the soda unless they say they're invoking the rules of the deal. So I said "don't I get the soda for free?" And here's the rub; she responds "We don't have that deal anymore. Didn't you notice we lowered our prices? Each slice of pizza is only $3." I was sooooo tempted to say "Only $3 for a slice of pizza?! What a bargain!" but I'm not that guy. Remember when we were in Israel for the year, and you got a slice of pizza at Pizza Rami for only five NIS? That came out to like a buck and a quarter. Now I'm paying 280% of that. What has the world come to?

At work I listen to ESPN radio all day. I've begun to memorize a lot of the commercials I hear (if I hear the Colin Cowherd Vizio commercial one more time... "a 1080P LCD under 1700! They are the HDTV of you the people! Vizio is available at Circuit City! Sears, Costco, Sam's Club, BJ's! And Walmart). Recently, they've started airing a new commercial, which I found highly entertaining, mostly because the woman's voice is so funny. I haven't the foggiest idea what the commercial is about, but it sounds like a guy is trying to figure out what to get his wife for Christmas. Apparently, the wife is the out-doorsy type, and the husband keeps saying things like "Isn't there anything you need?" And she replies "You're all I need! Unless I go camping, in which case I'll need a three-season tent." And then he says "At least let me make you something." And she says "Really you could just make me a card, and put it in a kayak!" For some reason I think that last line is hilarious. Maybe I'm weird. No wait; I'm definitely weird, but is that why I find that funny?

I just want to put in a quick word about the Mitchell investigation, which is supposed to reveal its findings at 2 pm EST today. I have a funny feeling that today is going to be a very bad day for Major League Baseball. A report came out that four current Yankees will be mentioned in the report. I imagine two of them are Jason Giambi and Roger Clemens, but I have no idea about the other two. Wouldn't it be incredible if one of them were Derek Jeter? That would really make my day. I hope all the other ones are bad men that people (read: I) don't like anyway, like Barry Bonds, and Jimmy Rollins (MVP? Hah!), and Albert Pujols. I would hate for it to be players that everyone loves and respects, like David Wright, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr., etc., although in my heart of hearts I know it won't work out that way. I hope baseball can recover. Last time it took steroids to make everyone forget about the strike-shortened 1994 season. I don't know what it will take this time, but they better pull through.

Hawaiian Tropic Zone

So it's 25 degrees outside (including wind-chill), and I just got back to my office from lunch. I'm walking on 7th avenue and as I'm crossing 49th street, I see a bar and grill called "Hawaiian Tropic Zone." Great, it's New York, it's a bar/lounge, wonderful. I'm glancing through the window and I notice several young women wearing bikinis. Apparently, people will be attracted to a place that pretends that we're at the beach on a sunny 85 degree day (or maybe they're just attracted to a place that has several young women wearing bikinis). Whatever. I just found that noteworthy.

Meanwhile, there are about a million cars trying to wind their way through the streets of New York. This is something I just don't understand. I go out for lunch every day, and every day there's ridiculous traffic on 6th avenue and on all the side streets. And I don't mean just trucks making deliveries; I mean taxi-cabs and civilian cars. What the heck are all the cars doing here? Trucks, I understand; they have to make deliveries. But why on earth would someone be in a car in midtown? Where are they going? From where are they coming? And it's not like there's traffic some days and not on other days; there is traffic EVERY SINGLE DAY. These people obviously know that it's going to take them at least an hour to get through midtown; why don't they just take the subway?! It would be soooo much faster, and there are comparatively few people taking the subway at this hour. If someone could explain this to me, I will know a tiny drop more that I do already (which is a substantial amount. This explanation would barely increase my knowledge, percentage-wise).

Church v. Hunter

Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed 32 year old, free agent Center Fielder Torii Hunter, to a five year $90 million deal. Today, the New York Metropolitans traded Lastings Milledge to the Washington Nationals for Catcher Brian Schneider and Center/Left Fielder Ryan Church. Ryan Church will make ~$400,000 this year. Let's compare the two and see who's getting more bang for their buck:

Hunter: 600 ABs, 94 Runs, 172 Hits, 45 2Bs, 1 3B, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 18 SB, 40 BB, 101 Ks, .287 BA, .334 OBP, .505 SLG, .839 OPS, 122 OPS+, 2 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), 8.00 WARP3, .292 EqA, 24 Win Shares, 5.60 RC/27, .64 WPA

Church: 470 ABs, 57 Runs, 128 Hits, 43 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 3 SB, 49 BBs, 107 Ks, .272 BA, .349 OBP, .464 SLG, .813 OPS, 114 OPS+, 14 FRAA, 7.10 WARP3, .288 EqA, 19 Win Shares, 5.70 RC/27, .15 WPA

Church (Projected to 600 ABs): 73 Runs, 163 Hits, 55 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 89 RBI, 4 SB, 63 BBs, 167 Ks, 18 FRAA, 9.06 WARP3, 24 Win Shares

Hunter is clearly better than Church, although not by very much at all. Church has far better plate discipline, as exhibited by his nine more walks in 130 fewer at-bats. And Torii Hunter's highly touted glove is - by at least one metric - only slightly above average, whereas Church played outstanding outfield last year. Church's numbers also suffered because he played his home games at Robert F. Kennedy Stadium. Let's look at his home/road splits:

Home: 229 ABs, 24 Runs, 61 Hits, 20 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 1 SB, 28 BBs, 49 Ks, .266 BA, .356 OBP, .419 SLG, .775 OPS
Away: 241 ABs, 33 Runs, 67 Hits, 23 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB, 21 BBs, 58 Ks, .278 BA, .342 OBP, .506 SLG, .848 OPS

That OPS and SLG difference is ridiculous. Now let's be crazy and project his away stats to 600 ABs and Church becomes a carbon-copy of Torii Hunter except with more strikeouts and more walks:
Away: 600 ABs, 82 Runs, 167 Hits, 57 2B, 2 3B, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB, 52 BB, 144 Ks

I have absolutely no problem paying this man $400,000 to hit 6th in my lineup every night. Not only that, but he'll be hitting in the Mets lineup surrounded by Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Moises Alou, and Carlos Delgado, az he should get much better pitches to hit. This was not nearly as poor a move by Omar Minaya as everyone thinks.

By Request, Football

For some reason I completely forgot to follow up my post about the most important stats in football. A friend reminded me over the weekend, so I went ahead and did some analysis this morning. Just in case y'all forgot what I was doing, I'll paste from the original post: "I thought about it for a while, and I came up with two answers: a. starting field position, and b. percentage of offensive series resulting in a first down or a score." Thanks, again, to one of my devoted readers for pointing me to the drive stats listed on footballoutsiders.com. I can't believe I didn't think to check there for the stats; I mean they wrote Pro Football Prospectus 2007, which I read cover to cover. Anyway, here are the results of my analysis (all stats through week 11):

I realized while I was compiling and sorting my data, that in order to be thorough I would have to do hours and hours of research. I really should look at offensive and defensive stats for the past few seasons, and then try to come up with a reasonable way of combining my two stats, because they certainly don't contribute to wins and losses evenly. Instead, all I did was look at offensive stats for this year, ranked the teams one to 32 in each of the two stats, and then I added up the rankings and ranked the sum.
For example, the New England Patriots' average starting field position is the 33.94 yard line, second best in the league. Their drive success rate is 84.3%, best in all of football. One plus two equals three, the lowest sum out of everyone, so they get the best ranking.
For one more example, the Kansas City Chiefs' average starting field position is the 28.35 yard line, 26th in the NFL. Their drive success rate is 59.3%, second worst in the league. 26 plus 31 equals 57, the hightest sum out of everyone, so they get the worst ranking.

Next, I decided to compare their rankings to their winning percentage. Here's where I ran into trouble, because luck plays a big role in wins and losses. One bounce of the football can mean the difference between 6-4 and 5-5; between a .600 winning percentage and a .500 winning percentage. Az additionally, I elected to look at Pythagorean projected winning percentage, which takes into account only points scored and points given up. For example:

The San Francisco 49ers have scored 113 points and given up 223. Inputting those numbers into the Pythagorean formula looks like this: 1 / (1+(223 / 113)^2) = .204. Their actual winning percentage is .200, so that's a very good projection.

Anyway, I determined that the results of the analysis were inconclusive. My system projects the Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, Colts, Giants, and Buccaneers to be in the top nine. This agrees with their Pythagorean projections. However, my system loves the Browns (4th overall), Bengals (7th overall), and Redskins (8th overall), and their Pythagorean projections are 15th, 20th, and 18th respectively.

Next time I'll look at turnover differential and see what that data will show. I'm looking forward to comments.

Didn't Do It Justice

I should be embarrassed about my last post. I should hang my head in shame.

Before I continue to lambaste myself I have a little side issue to address. Don't worry, it's completely not sports related. Last week I received "Confessor" in the mail. It is the eleventh and final volume of Terry Goodkind's "Sword of Truth" series. This is my favorite fantasy series. I remember opening the first volume "Wizard's First Rule" on the Metro-North train to my aunt and uncle's house in Connecticut around nine years ago. I have been waiting for a long time for the series to end, and I can't wait to see what happens at the end. Just to put it in a frame of reference you can all understand, I'm going to continue the example using Harry Potter. A new volume in the series came out every three years, and in between the books would get discussed by fans endlessly. It would get discussed so much that the story would become the stuff of legend. And each time a new volume came out, it was as though the story was actually happening as you were reading it. Imagine you didn't know any of the stories in the bible, but you knew that the bible was the foundation of your belief system, or even that it was the basis for the beliefs of thousands of people. Now you're reading the bible for the first time, and you're internalizing the fact that what you're reading IS the bible. This is it. What you're reading is the only bible that there is, and the stories are the ones that everyone knows. Now let's go back to Harry Potter. As you read the last book you were thinking "wow, this is the story of Harry Potter. There is no other story about Harry Potter; there will never be any other story about Harry Potter." You almost start to think "who is J.K. Rowling that she can add on to the story that's already taken place?" You feel me? I'm definitely not explaining it well, but it's hard to articulate what I'm trying to convey. Anyway, the point is that this is the last part of the Richard and Kahlan story, and it can't ever be changed. I hope Terry Goodkind done good.

Anyway, I'm continuing to be beside myself with how badly I botched the last post. Thank the Lord for firejoemorgan.com. They made me realize how much more I should have written, and really how poor an MVP selection Jimmy Rollins is. I mentioned Hanley Ramirez a few times, but it didn't even occur to me that Jimmy Rollins wasn't even the best shortstop in his division this season. And you know what? I'm not even going to use fancy sabermetric stats, because the MVP voters don't look at those anyway; I'm gonna look at the old-fashioned stats. Since Rollins got 77 more at bats, I'm going to list Ramirez's actual stats and his projected stats with those extra 77 at bats (in parentheses):

Batting Average: Rollins: .296, Ramirez: .332
Runs Scored: Rollins: 139, Ramirez: 125 (140)
Hits: Rollins: 212, Ramirez: 212 (238)
RBI: Rollins: 94, Ramirez: 81 (91)
Doubles: Rollins: 38, Ramirez: 48 (54)
Triples: Rollins: 20, Ramirez: 6 (7)
Home Runs: Rollins: 30, Ramirez: 29 (32)
Total Bases: Rollins: 380, Ramirez: 359 (402)
Extra Base Hits: Rollins: 88, Ramirez: 83 (93)
Strikeouts: Rollins: 85, Ramirez: 95 (106)
Walks: Rollins: 49, Ramirez: 52 (58)
Stolen Bases: Rollins: 41, Ramirez: 51 (57)
Outs: Rollins: 521 (Led all of baseball, and the most outs of any MVP ever), Ramirez: 451 (505)
OBP: Rollins: .344, Ramirez: .386
SLG: Rollins: .531, Ramirez: .562
OPS: Rollins: .875, Ramirez: .948

I realize that projecting the stats isn't exactly fair, but even if I didn't do that, Ramirez still leads Rollins in BA, doubles, BBs, SBs, Outs, OBP, SLG, and OPS. They are tied in hits, and virtually tied in home runs. How can someone who is inferior to another player AT THE SAME POSITION, in just about every single important (and unimportant) statistical category beat the other in MVP voting 353 to 49? It just doesn't make any sense.

Blah Blah Baseball Blah

There are a couple of items I would like to discuss today. First up is the recent announcement of Jimmy Rollins as the Most Valuable Player in the National League. Hold on. Before I start a Jimmy Rollins rant, I want to make it absolutely clear that I hold no ill will towards Mr. Rollins. None at all. In fact, I'm glad he had gaudy counting stats this year; he really helped two of my fantasy teams. Rollins had a terrific season, and he helped his team reach the playoffs. This is not, I repeat, NOT a post from a bitter Mets fan about how much I hate Jimmy Rollins. I'm only looking at statistics here; that's all. The last thing I want to hear from anyone is that I'm not being fair to Rollins and I'm only seeing one side of the story, blah blah blah. This post is simply a statistical analysis; you'll never catch me making references to leadership and intangibles and red glasses and pre-season announcements.

Right off the bat I'm going to ignore Stolen Bases, Home Runs, and Runs Scored. We all know Rollins can steal bases with the best of them, and his 30 Home Runs, while not astounding, were quite impressive. Runs scored are absolutely meaningless, az STFU. These are the stats I will be using: Walks, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, Runs Created, RC/27, Equivalent Average, Value Over Replacement Player, Win Probability Added, and Win Shares. And don't tell me that these stats don't capture all that Rollins brings to the table, because EqA, VORP, WPA, and Win Shares do just that. And just for the purposes of comparison, I chose eleven other players to examine, ten of whom got MVP votes, and one who's just interesting. Let's get started:

Walks: Jimmy Rollins walked 49 times this year, good for 46th in the NL. That's absolutely atrocious, especially for a leadoff hitter. Of all the guys on my list, only Ryan Braun had fewer walks, but he had over 200 fewer plate appearances than Rollins. I mean if you're Chase Utley and OBPing .410, then you're allowed to walk only 50 times, especially if you get injured and miss a bunch of games.
Noteworthy walkers: Pujols (99, 5th), Wright (94, 6th), Ryan Howard (107, 3rd), Todd Helton (116, 1st), Prince Fielder (90, 8th)

OBP: The .344 that Rollins posted is not good enough to be a leadoff hitter in the major leagues, and certainly not good enough to be MVP. In Moneyball, Bill James proclaimed that OBP is three times as important as SLG, az I think it should be more highly regarded by MVP voters.
Noteworthy On-Basers: Chipper Jones (.425, 3rd), Pujols (.429, 2nd), Wright (.416, 4th), Miguel Cabrera (.401, 7th), Matt Holliday (.405, 6th), Chase Utley (.410, 5th), Todd Helton (.434, 1st)

(Just as an aside. As I was looking up Chase Utley's stats on baseball-reference.com, I noticed that his full name is Chase Cameron Utley. I wonder if his parents were time-travelers and really liked House. Hameivin yavin.)

SLG: Rollins finally shows a bit of respectability here, posting a .531 SLG, good for 15th in the NL. Still not MVP worthy, but definitely above average, especially for a shortstop.
Noteworthy Sluggers: Jones (.604, 3rd), Pujols (.568, 5th), Cabrera (.565, 7th), Ryan Braun (.634, 1st if he qualified for the batting title), Holliday (.607, 2nd), Hanley Ramirez (.562, 8th), Fielder (.618, 1st), Utley (.566, 6th), Howard (.584, 4th)

OPS: Obviously since his OBP is terrible, his OPS will also be poor, although his SLG makes up for it. His .875 is 23rd in the NL and still very good for shortstops. If only he walked more I could actually take him seriously.
Noteworthy OPSers: Jones (1.029, 1st), Pujols (.997, 4th), Wright (.963, 8th), Cabrera (.965, 7th), Braun (1.004, 4th if he qualified), Holliday (1.012, 3rd), Ramirez (.948, 9th), Fielder (1.013, 2), Utley and Howard (.976, 5th)

Enough! This is ridiculous and tedious, and frankly I don't have the time for it. Let's just say that Rollins sucks in the rest of the stats as well:
118 OPS+, Chipper Jones: 166
135 Runs Created (5th), Matt Holliday: 151
.298 EqA, Jones: .340
66.1 VORP (9th), Hanley Ramirez: 89.5
3.20 WPA (15th), Holliday: 5.06
28 Win Shares (6th), Wright: 34

All How can this guy be an MVP? Great player, no question, but Pujols, Jones, Wright, Cabrera, Ramirez, Holliday, Utley, and Fielder are all superior choices.

Moving right along, the Mets decided not to sign Yorvit Torrealba to an absurd contract, and instead went with Johnny Estrada. Estrada's stats are better than Torrealba's, and Bill James predicts him to have a much better year than him, but there's one thing about Estrada that scares me. Of all players with at least 150 plate appearances last year, Estrada saw THE FEWEST pitches per at bat. Most players see around 3.75 pitchers per plate appearance, and the best see around 4.25. Last year, Estrada saw 2.99 pitches per plate appearances. HoJo better teach the man how to walk or else his playing time will drop.

Let's keep up with the hot stove and see what else gets cooked.

Letting it Go, and Another Thing I Won't Let Go

Apparently, the upper managment of the New York Metropolitans has heard the cries of our bondage, and has finally agreed to lead us out of the land of Torrealba. Reports are that the Mets have ceased negotiations with Torrealba and his agent. I guess they've decided to use the $14.4 million for something other than toilet tissue.

By the way, remember the old commercial for Publisher's Clearing House? "The house where dreams come true." Wasn't the tune to those words exactly the same as the tune for the end of the Chuck E. Cheese's commercial? "Where a kid can be a kid." For some reason I think they were the same.

Now that we're through with that bit of insanity, it's time to move on to another one. I've been saying this for the last month or so, and I really thought it might actually happen one of of this weeks. For the tenth straight game, the New England Patriots have emerged victorious, and for the ninth time out of the ten, they absolutely destroyed their opponent; this time they defeated the Buffalo Bills 56-10. As my esteemed colleague noted last night, "it's like they're playing Madden '08." Even with a 35-7 halftime lead, the Patriots continued to trot their best players out on the field in order to humiliate their opponent and flip a collective bird at the rest of the league. But honestly, what's the point of playing any sport? It's to win a championship. Why oh why is Coach Bill Belichick sending out his prized players after the outcome of the game has already been determined? I've been saying for the past month that they need to be punished. Seriously, the Bills hadn't even touched quarterback Tom Brady all night, yet they continued to play their conservative defense through the end of the game. I really think the Bills should have sent all eleven defenders after Tom Brady and knocked the stuffing out of him on every single play, even after the plays ended. Yes, the players and team would have been fined, and they would have given up more points, but so what? Bill Belichick needs to be taught a lesson. If he's going to say "F**k you!" to the NFL, then he deserves to have his players get hurt.

Now, I'm sure some of you out there are thinking "this guy's just a bitter Jets fan who hates the Patriots." I can assure you, that even though I am a Jets fan, I'm certainly not bitter, and I certainly don't hate the Patriots. And I absolutely do not wish any harm upon Mr. Brady; he is, after all, the father of G-d knows how many children. But for all of Bill Belichick's strategic genius, I honestly and truly believe that he deserves to be punished for putting in his best players when they have already won the game, and the vessel of G-d's wrath should be Brady.

I Can't Just Let This Go By Unnoticed

Player X: .255 BA, .323 OBP, .376 SLG, .699 OPS, 75 OPS+
Player Y: .285 BA, .331 OBP, .556 SLG, .887 OPS, 127 OPS+

One of these players was just signed by the Mets to a three year deal worth $14.4 million. The other was the Mets' backup catcher last year and makes no money. One of these players put up these numbers last year at Coors Field. The other put up his numbers at a pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium. Which one do you think is which?

Duh, Player X is the newly acquired Yorvit Torrealba, and Player Y is Ramon Castro. If Torrealba gets more at-bats this season than Castro I'm gonna go ballistic.

Yorvit Torrealba?!?!?!1?!?!1?!?!?! For almost $5 million a season?!?!!1?!!1?!!?! Are you freakin' kidding me?!?!?!1?!?!?!!1?!?!!

New Biggest Driving Pet-Peeve

Sorry to disappoint all of you, but my football post will have to wait. Just a quick thanks to one of my loyal readers for cutting my research time down by several hours.

Meanwhile, my nephew's bris was on Sunday morning. I'm proud to say that Binyamin Lev ben Yisroel Dov has entered into the covenant of Abraham, our forefather.

Here's a quickie. When I told one of my friends the name of my nephew, he was shocked because my brother and his father have the same Hebrew name, Yisroel Dov. And he said that it was a shame that his father's English name isn't as frum as my brother's, since his father is a Rabbi. Az then we got onto the topic of rabbis with secular names. Here are the ones we came up with. I will leave out last names so as not to embarrass anyone:
Rabbi Cary _____
Rabbi Dale _____
Rabbi Shawn Blair _____
Rabbi Harlan _____
I would love to hear some more from all of you; I think it's hilarious.

And now I will address the topic of my post. Before I start, I'll just say that it has been a pet-peeve of mine for a while, but now it's my biggest one. I've been noticing this more and more, recently, but the events of last night really take the cake.

I was driving back from a wedding with three women, and one of them requested to be dropped off on the Upper East Side. No problem, I know the East Side well, az it would only have taken an extra five minutes. The FDR Drive is great; I literally grew up on top of it, but when you're driving northbound you can get into trouble because the exits are spaced far apart. The woman requested to be dropped off on 86th street, az I could either have gotten off at 61st street or 96th street. I decided that 96th street was the better bet, so we just kept going. However, traffic stopped almost instantaneously after the 61st street exit. I turn on the radio and the first thing I hear is "I could give you 100 reasons to avoid the FDR Drive on the north-bound side." Oh good. Az we're sitting in traffic for about 20 minutes when we finally start to approach the 96th street exit. There's a long wait in the right lane because that's where everyone is going to exit. I'm waiting, and waiting, and waiting...and the exit is slowly drawing nearer, and cars from the middle lane are trying to force their way into the exit lane. This one guy tries to cut in front of me into the right lane, but he literally has zero room there, so I honk a few times and inch my way up right behind the car in front of me so the dude can't fit in, and he starts to go absolutely berserk. He screamed several obscenities, including some horrible things about my mother, although the meaning was lost through the two solid windows in between us. If it wasn't really late and raining, I would have asked him politely to retract his statments and apologize for using such language in the presence of women, but I was persuaded to just let him go through.

Here's the point. If you want to pass someone on the road because they're going slowly, you're more than welcome to do so. You're not screwing anybody by speeding up a bit to pass the slow guy. But if cars are lined up to exit, it's horrible manners to speed your way to the front of the line and then cut in. I promise we're not going slowly because we enjoy it. Please wait from the back of the line like everybody else. I don't care if your wife and children are suffering a lingering, rotting death; everyone else is in a hurry too. And the last thing you should be doing is expecting the cars to let you in, as if it's your G-d given right to do this. And also, please please don't honk your horn. I mean, when there are thousands of cars literally inches away from each other, honking your horn will do no good; we're all trying to go as quickly as we can. And also don't use foul language, especially in my car.

Thanks,

Your Friend,

Schmutter

Quick Update

Sorry I've been slacking for the last week or so. Things have been busy what with the new baby and all. For those of you who are not in the know, a baby boy was born to my brother and sister-in-law on Saturday morning, November 3rd, 2007, at 4:11 am via Caesarean Section. He was born at nine pounds, 14.8 ounces. Mother, father, and son have since left the hospital and are doing very well. They intend to move into their new apartment in the next two weeks.

Anyway, now that you're up to date, here's a coupla things I was thinking about over the last coupla days. Firstly, my "prediction" regarding Alex Rodriguez was right on target. Remember when I said: "Can you imagine what would happen if all the general managers got together and said 'What if none of us gives Alex Rodriguez a decent offer? What if we all decide that we're not gonna pay him more than $10 million a year instead of the $30 million+ that he's expecting?'" Now due to my horrifying lack of economical knowledge, I was unaware of the principal of collusion. No one else needs me to explain it, az I won't. I'm just a little bit shocked that I saw this happening.

Yesterday, my roommate who is not extremely knowledgeable in sports posed this question: "What is the most important statistic in Football?" He submitted that turnover differential might be it. I thought about it for a while, and I came up with two answers: a. starting field position, and b. percentage of offensive series resulting in a first down or a score. I'm pretty sure I should be able to find the starting field position stats for each team pretty easily, but since the second one isn't a tracked statistic I'll have to do that research myself. I'll try to get on that this weekend if I don't end up going to Atlantic City on Sunday afternoon. Anyone want to come with me?

T9 Trouble

I think y'all can figure out where this is going, but I'll do it anyway. Text Messaging has become huge in today's society, especially among members of the younger generation. Who cares that it can be more expensive than phone calls! Who cares that it takes ten minutes to write six words! Passing notes in class has become a thing of the past. As a matter of fact, last night I exchanged about a dozen (twelve) texts with someone who was no more than half a dozen (six) feet away from me. In the wake of the rise of the texting phenomenon, phone companies had to come up with a way to make it more efficient. Enter T9, iTap, and all their other smelly brethren. Now you don't have to punch 4666444664 to get the word "going," or 866->6->666777->7776663 to type "tomorrow." (If you'll notice, I like to hit the right arrow to move the cursor to type a letter on the same number as the previous letter. The other standard option is to let the cursor move by itself just by waiting a couple of seconds. I tend to grow impatient.) Instead, you can just punch 46464 for "going" and 86667763 for "tomorrow." This so called "predictive text" thing is terrific! I just increased my productivity by over 100%! But here's the problem, and you all knew it was coming. Sometimes the same number combination can produce different words. For example, and this happens all the time, 63 can either be "me" or "of." Another words, you need to proofread your texts these days. Here are some other fun examples, courtesy of Wikipedia:
5477 = kiss or lips (can you imagine? I want to lips you on the lips. Ignore that last text. I meant I want to lips you on the kiss. Crap! Forget it, let's be shomer.
22737 = acres, bards, bares, barfs, baser, bases, caper, capes, cards, cares, cases.
This is a cool one: 76476633 can be either "Smirnoff" or "poisoned."
I know this will happen to me one day because I'm a loser: "Will you go out with of? I mean will you go out with me?"
"I am 735328464 you."
"What? You're selecting me? Hurrah!"
"Umm, no. Sorry, Schmutter, I'm rejecting you."

Don't you just love pop culture?

I was hanging out with a friend last night while she was writing a paper, and it occurred to me that no one really writes papers any more. Honestly, when was the last time any of you wrote a paper with a pen or pencil? I know I haven't since like 5th grade. I think people should start saying "I have a paper to compose and type." That is obviously completely ridiculous, but isn't that what this is all about?

For those of you not interested in sports, know this: the next paragraph, while not sports-related, will be an introduction to the subsequent paragraph, which will be about sports. Another words, if you don't want to read about sports, stop after this paragraph. Anyway, remember back in high school a teacher would occasionally schedule an exam, or give you an assignment, which the entire class deemed unfair? Inevitably everyone would come together and decide that the class would boycott the test/assignment, because the teacher can't just fail everybody. But this never worked because there were always those goody-goody teacher's pets (read: Schmutters) in the class who were too scared to pull it off.

(Here..here's the sports part.) Can you imagine what would happen if all the general managers got together and said "What if none of us gives Alex Rodriguez a decent offer? What if we all decide that we're not gonna pay him more than $10 million a year instead of the $30 million+ that he's expecting?" This obviously would never happen, because inevitably one GM would think "hey, if I can get everyone else to go along with this I can get A-Rod for $11 million..." but wouldn't it be cool? Don't get me wrong, I really couldn't give a crap about how much money Alex Rodriguez makes, although if Barry Zito can make $126 million for seven years, the Rodriguez probably "deserves" to make at least 30. But wouldn't it be amazing if the entire league really stuck it to Rodriguez's agent Scott Boras? Boras, the guy who makes GMs nationwide collapse in collective apoplexy whenever a client of his becomes a free agent. The guy who ignores Major League Baseball rules by announcing A-Rod's decision to invoke his opt-out clause during the World Series. I would really love it if he got screwed.

Remember last year when I said that I was indifferent about the Mets signing Moises Alou for $7.5 million for one year? I heard this morning that they picked up Alou's option for another year. Now, I have nothing against Moises Alou; he's a very good offensive player. But he's like 139 years old and he only played 87 games last year. I really think the Mets should have Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gomez, and Lastings Milledge as the starting outfielders. Last year, Alou and Shawn Green earned a combined $19.33 million. Gomez and Milledge made a combined $766,000. I think they're both ready to play full time. Meanwhile, the Mets could spend the extra $18.67 million on a number two or three starter and a middle reliever or two. They could even (gasp!) make a run at signing A-Rod (I don't want to deal with this right now. I want to see what develops and then decide how I feel about it). I think the Mets should give the young'uns a chance.

Happy All Vegan Day.

Pitching Continued

Sorry to do this to all of you again, but because of a few discussions I had yesterday, I felt the need to defend myself. Hopefully this will be the last one; I don't want to lose any more readers than I already have.

Anyway, before I start, I said I would transcribe my brother's comment:
"Not that I agree (or disagree) with Ryan being in there, but I think you overlooked the "Bob's" as in Feller (1939 - 1948) and Gibson (1964 - 1973)."

Before I respond to that, I will explain a little bit of my methodology for choosing my players. At first, I browsed some stat lists and the Hall of Fame list to make my initial player list. Then I looked up their relevant stats. I immediately removed about six players from that initial list, az I was down to 34. Some of the 19 I chose from the 34 were obvious (Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, etc.), but others were very difficult. Right at the outset I should have said that many of the people on the bottom of the 19 are interchangeable with some that I left off the list; it's really a matter of preference. I imagine that the 19th and 20th greatest pitchers of all time were similarly successful. Anyway, here are the pitchers that were on the preliminary list but did not make the top 19:

Warren Spahn: 363 Ws, 382 CGs, 63 Shutouts, 3.09 ERA, 118 ERA+, 1.195 WHIP
Steve Carlton: 329 Ws, 254 CGs, 55 Shutouts, 4136 Ks, 7.135 K/9, 3.22 ERA, 115 ERA+, 1,247 WHIP
Gaylord Perry: 314 Ws, 303 CGs, 53 Shutouts, 3534 Ks, 3.11 ERA, 117 ERA+, 1.181 WHIP
Lefty Grove: 300 Ws, 298 CGs, 35 Shutouts, 3.06 ERA, 148 ERA+, 1.278 WHIP
Jim Palmer: 268 Ws, 211 CGs, 53 Shutouts, 2.86 ERA, 125 ERA+, 1.18 WHIP
Bob Feller: 266 Ws, 279 CGs, 44 Shutouts, 6.070 K/9, 3.25 ERA, 122 ERA+, 1.316 WHIP
Carl Hubbell: 253 Ws, 260 CGs, 36 Shutouts, 2.98 ERA, 130 ERA+, 1.166 WHIP
Bob Gibson: 251 Ws, 255 CGs, 56 Shutouts, 3117 Ks, 7.223 K/9, 2.91 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.188 WHIP
Juan Marichal: 243 Ws, 244 CGs, 52 Shutouts, 2.89 ERA, 122 ERA+, 1.101 WHIP
Whitey Ford: 236 Ws, 156 CGs, 45 Shutouts, 2.75 ERA, 132 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP
Don Drysdale: 209 Ws, 167 CGs, 49 Shutouts, 2.95 ERA, 121 ERA+, 1.148 WHIP
John Smoltz: 207 Ws, 53 CGs, 16 Shutouts, 154 Saves, 2975 Ks, 7.952 K/9, 3.26 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.170 WHIP
Dennis Eckersley: 197 Ws, 100 CGs, 20 Shutouts, 390 Saves, 3.50 ERA, 116 ERA+, 1.161 WHIP
Roy Oswalt: 112 Wins, 12 CGs, 4 Shutouts, 7.452 K/9, 3.07 ERA, 142 ERA+, 1.201 WHIP

As I mentioned to my friend last night, I would like to add a pitcher to my top 19. I put Babe Ruth on there because I thought it would be fun; now I'll put a real dude there. I admit I missed the boat on this one because I had never heard much about him:
Ed Walsh: 195 Ws, 250 CGs, 57 Shutouts, 1736 Ks, 5.271 K/9, 1.82 ERA, 146 ERA+, 1.000 WHIP

Here's the deal: the purpose of this post was not to list the 19 pitchers I would most want to pitch one game 7 of the World Series at their peak. I wanted to compile a list of the pitchers who had the best careers of all time. This is the crux of the argument I had with my friend last night. He would argue, based on yesterday's post, that Sandy Koufax, Addie Joss, Jack Chesbro, and Rube Waddell do not belong on my list. I will admit that Chesbro was a poor selection; I very much wanted to take note of his one ridiculous season. Chesbro's closing career line of 3.931 K/9 and 110 ERA+ are very pedestrian. I would like to retroactively remove him from the list.

That being said, I would like to explain why the other three should remain on the list. My friend maintains that a pitcher like Steve Carlton should be on the list because he was a terrific pitcher for 16 years. He claims that the last five-six years of his career should count less because he was older and was deteriorating. My argument is that if he plays poorly for long enough that his overall stats suffer, then he should be penalized for it. I think that if Carlton had retired in the early 80s instead of sticking around until 1988, he would be on the list. That's five full years of sub-par baseball forever attached to Carlton's stat line. My friend would argue that the other players I mentioned (Koufax, Joss, Waddell) got "lucky" that they never deteriorated or never had the opportunity to have those few bad seasons before they retired. I wouldn't exactly call Addie Joss lucky; he died of tubercular meningitis when he was 31. Waddell was "lucky" enough to learn and perfect pitching while outside of the Major Leagues, so he never went through a development stage. And Koufax literally destroyed his arm during the 1965 season, and despite the advice of his team physician he went out to pitch in 1966 and had another unbelievable year. He was forced to retire after that season even though he was at the peak of his performance.

Now, my friend would like to say that these pitchers would have worse career stats if they had played late into their 30s, and this is entirely possible. But I choose not to penalize players for the what-might-have-beens. In "Moneyball," Michael Lewis conveys Billy Beane's preference to draft players who have been successful; he doesn't go for the guys who have a lot of upside potential. I choose to do the same thing here. I don't care about what those guys might have done if they had played ten more years; I care about how they performed when they did play. And Koufax played to the tune of a 2.76 ERA, a 1.106 WHIP, and 9.278 K/9. Some of those other guys who played a long time have worse stats, mostly because they stuck around for too long. Carlton finished his career with a 3.22 ERA. Feller finished his career with a 1.316 WHIP, the highest on my list.

The only player I'm really penalizing for something out if his control is Bob Gibson. By all measures he deserves to be on my top 19. The reason I am penalizing him is because for only the 1968 season the pitcher's mound was raised, and pitchers as a whole enjoyed a season of success. The league ERA was 2.90 that year. The next lowest league ERA during Gibson's career was 3.27. Gibson enjoyed this season most of all:
22 Ws, 28 CGs, 13 Shutouts, 268 Ks, 1.12 ERA, 258 ERA+, 0.853 WHIP
Let's look at what happens to his career stats when you remove the 1968 season: his WHIP rises from 1.188 to 1.217, and his ERA rises from 2.91 to 3.07.
That's still a very nice career, but definitely less super-human. I guess I'm not being entirely fair; I really should replace that season with an average Gibson season, but that's too much work.

Anyway, keep your thoughts coming; I've already finished my work for the month, and there are still five business days to go. I'll need something to keep me occupied.

The K-Zone

Before I begin, I just want to publicize that today is International Stuttering Awareness Day. As a former severe stutterer (and a current occasional stutterer), I feel that it's important for everyone to recognize this disorder and to try to be patient in our dealings with people who stutter. It can be an extremely embarassing and frustrating condition, az at least today, please try to be extra-sensitive. Thanks.

Intro #2: I'm on full-time baby-alert from yesterday until whenever my sister-in-law gives birth. If you're hanging out with me, or if you're in the car with me or something, just know that I might have to leave at a moment's notice. For G-d's sake, we're on the brink of having another Schmutter in the world; things are about to get a whole lot crazier.

And now, the steak.

You guys wouldn't believe how many of my readers were up-in-arms about my pitching list. Would you belive it was only one? Still, he was disgusted that I put Nolan Ryan on my list over Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton and Lefty Grove. Needless to say, all three had outstanding careers, and one could make a case that they belong on the list over Ryan. Grove has two things over Ryan:
1. His ERA+ of 148 dominates Ryan's 112, even though their raw ERAs are very similar (3.06 to 3.19).
2. His record of 300-144 rocks Ryan's 324-292
Grove also had one horrifyingly good MVP season in 1931:
31-4 Record, 27 CGs, 4 Shutouts, 175 Ks, 2.06 ERA, 1.077 WHIP

Carlton and Ryan have numbers that are almost identical. They both struck out a lot of guys (4136 and 5714), they both have the exact same WHIP (1.247), and their ERAs are virtually the same (3.22 and 3.19). Carlton also "suffers" from the Grove/Koufax "what do you say I go ahead and be ridiculously dominant for a coupla seasons." As my friend pointed out so astutely, Carlton literally carried his team in 1972, when he won over 40% of the games that the Phillies won:
27-10 Record, 30 CGs, 8 Shutouts, 310 Ks, 1.97 ERA, 0.993 WHIP (Phillies won 59 games that year)
We'll get to Warren Spahn in a second.

Now I've made cases for both Carlton and Grove to appear on my list. At this point I'd like to dip into something I learned in Pro Football Prospectus 2007. Using their complex statistical theory, they determined that a running-back who consistently gets three to four yards a carry but does not get any big runs of ten or more yards is more valuable in the long term than a back who gets stuffed at or behind the line sometimes but breaks for big runs more often. You feel me? Let me try that again. Let's say Player Q and Player J both have 200 carries for 1000 yards in one season; they both average 5.0 yards per carry. Now let's say Player Q gains exactly five yards on every single carry, but player J alternates between having five straight carries of zero yards each and five straight carries of ten yards each. Which player is more valuable in the long run? According to their analysis, Player Q is more valuable, because each time he carries the ball, he has a successful play. If they give him the ball on every play, eventually they will score a touchdown on every drive. However, player J will probably produce very few touchdowns, because his team will be forced to punt all the time.

Let's get back to baseball. Nolan Ryan, I believe, was a more valuable player over the course of his career than Grove or Carlton. Ryan was never a feast or famine pitcher like the other two; he never had a stretch of dominant seasons. His best ERA in any season in which he got more than 25 starts was 2.76, very nice but nowhere near as good as the seasons I mentioned above. But for basically 25 years you knew what you were getting with Ryan; a guy who was going to give you seven or eight (or nine) solid innings and a chance to win the game. Warren Spahn was very similar; he never had any over-the-top outstanding seasons (except maybe 1953: 23-7 record, 2.10 ERA, 188 ERA+), but he was always solid year-in and year-out. I just don't think he compiled good enough numbers to merit being on the list (2583 Ks, 3.09 ERA, 118 ERA+). Anyway, as far as I'm concerned, here's the key: The most predictable pitchers are the ones who have success with repeatable statistics. Here's what I mean:
As my friends at beyondtheboxscore.com (and many others) state, for the most part, the pitcher and the batter are in control of three things: walks, home runs, and strikeouts. Anything other than one of these "Three True Outcomes," or TTO for short, depends on luck and defense (at least for now. Baseball technology is always progressing, and eventually there will be substantial and trustworthy tools for determining trajectories and flight patterns of baseballs so that we can better analyze which players are better at hitting line drives and which pitchers are better at preventing them). As I've said before, a strikeout pitcher will tend to be more effective because a player can't get any hits if he doesn't put the ball in play. And if a pitcher can prevent hitters from hitting the ball in the air, then it's likely the ball will never leave the yard. Another words, the pitchers who will have the most success in the long run are the ones who consistently strike out a lot of hitters and give up few home runs. That's why Nolan Ryan was so successful for such a long time; he was really good at striking hitters out and at keeping the ball in the yard.

And just for argument's sake, don't ever mention Wins as a viable statistic when determining pitching skill. I mean, obviously a great pitcher will manage to win a lot of games, but when comparing pitchers you definitely can't use them. You can't say Spahn was better than Ryan because he had 39 more wins. I mean from 1953 onward, Spahn pitched on some pretty outstanding Milwaukee Braves teams; they averaged around 90 wins a year for the 13 years Spahn pitched there. Ryan pitched on some pretty awful teams in New York, California, Texas, and Houston. Those teams gave him fewer than four runs of support each game, and that made it a lot harder to win. I would venture to say that if he got half a run more support per game for his career, Ryan would have 50 more wins.

Anyway, here are the stats for Grove, Carlton and Ryan: (Strikouts per nine innings, Hits per nine innings, Walks per nine innings, and Home Runs per nine innings)
Grove: 5.175 K/9, 8.791 H/9, 2.711 BB/9, 0.370 HR/9
Carlton: 7.135 K/9, 8.059 H/9, 3.162 BB/9, 0.714 HR/9
Ryan: 9.548 K/9, 6.555 H/9, 4.670 BB/9, 0.536 HR/9

I think this presents a very compelling argument in favor of Nolan Ryan over the other two. Carlton was absolutely an amazing pitcher, maybe the best left-hander ever, but compared to these other two he sure did give up a lot of hits and home runs. Grove did an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, but he struck out so few batters (which was pretty standard during the 30s) and gave up so many hits that his WHIP was too high for me to put him in the top 19. As I mentioned in my paragraph about Ryan in my pitcher post, he walked the most guys of anyone ever. By far. It's for that reason, and that reason alone, that there's even a discussion about how great he was. But look how few hits he gave up! If you're basically walking or striking out every batter that comes to the plate, you're going to be pretty successful, especially if you have a rubber arm and can throw 150 pitches per game like Ryan did.

I think I've done an admirable job of defending myself, but since I love doing this I'd really love to hear some feedback from some of you, especially from the person who inspired to do this extra research.

Tomorrow's post: Why Sandy Koufax was head and shoulders above the Bobs (Feller and Gibson). I'll transcribe the comment I got from my brother through Blogger (he doesn't use facebook; he's an old fogey).

Tzedakah Etiquette

As everyone knows, riding the subway can be a frustrating experience. This morning was just one such example. I arrived at the 59th street station at about 8:57, and a B or D train usually comes shortly. There are few things more frustrating than waiting for a B or D train and watching a C, an A, and then another C come by before the B or D. I'm sure you all notice this all the time. Like you'll be waiting on 59th street to go back uptown on the A and three Bs, four Cs, and two Ds come before the A finally arrives. And somehow this always seems to happen on a Friday when you're in a rush to get home for Shabbat. Anyway, that's just my daily vent.

Now, I'll be the first to admit that I'm not the biggest ba'al chesed (good-deed doer) in the world, but one thing I find easy to do is give charity. Hopefully none of you will ever be in the position to have to beg, but if ever you do, please learn from my experiences with beggars:

1. I mention this topic today because I was leaving Milk and Honey at about 1:00, and I was accosted by a Jewish man asking for tzedakah right outside the entrance. Firstly, the man was exceedingly rude. He did not ask for money; he demanded that he be given it. Not only that, but when I ignored him and kept walking, he actually nudged me with his hand. If you're a beggar, don't ever EVER touch people; it's gross.

2. This one might only be annoying to me, but I'll hear what you have to say. Everyone knows that the subways are riddled with panhandlers, and some are more creative than others. It's rare that one will actually experience a peaceful subway ride; there will inevitably be one or more people playing music and collecting charity afterwards. Now I would posit that a person or people with a talent would be less likely to make money begging, because they actually have something positive to contribute to society. Meanwhile, I'm sure there are a lot of subway riders who find the music players annoying and would have gladly given to a normal beggar rather than being disturbed by the constant noise. I usually spend my subway rides reading or learning, az I hate when my subway car turns into a concert hall, especially during sefirah or the three weeks.

3. The remainder of my noteworthy tzedakah experiences occurred while I was in Israel. Right around Rosh Hashana time, I was approached by a woman right outside Sha'ar Ha'ashpot near the Wall, and she wouldn't stop bother me about "Rav Bina!! Rav Binaaaa!!" Anyway, when I went to give her a few one and two shekel coins she refused to take them stating that she would only accept paper money. Somehow, in my naivete, she finagled a 50 shekel bill from me. G-d knows I'll never let that happen again.

4. On most Thursday afternoons and Saturday nights during my year in Israel, I would find myself on Ben Yehudah street. I would often be engaged in conversation with a number of other people at the same time, just standing on the street. There used to be an old man who spoke no English (and no Hebrew as far as I could tell) who carried around those red strings to give to people who gave him charity. Anyway, he used to barge his way in on our conversations and shake his finger at us threatingly. I never gave that guy. I mean, I don't blame him for panhandling on Ben Yehuda, since it was always filled with rich American kids, but do it the right way. Like this dude:

5. In much the same way as the crazy old man, there used to be a nice gentleman who would traverse Ben Yehuda street with his wife and kid, and they would also look for groups of us and ask us for tzedakah. The difference is that this man spoke proper English and spoke humbly and apologetically. He would apologize profusely for disturbing us, and then would ask us if we could spare the smallest amount of money so that his wife and kid could eat. He was kind and friendly, and I would always give him.

Another words, don't be rude. Don't think that anyone owes you anything. Don't treat those who are more fortunate than you with disdain. Don't look a gift-horse in the mouth. Say "please" and "thank you."

Geez, look at me trying to lecture people on begging etiquette. These people mamash have NOTHING, and I'm busting their chops? Who the hell do I think I am? I'm a monster. Ignore everything I just said.