Mighty

The time between the double-whistle signifying the end of the Super Bowl and when pitchers and catchers report to spring training is one of those dead periods of the year. The only "sports" going on are "basketball" and "hockey." The other time (which admittedly is not as bad as this one) is after the NBA and NHL finals end, when the only sport being played is baseball. Those of you who watch Sportscenter on ESPN will remember this sad period from last year by these three words "Who's more now?" Hameivin yavin. Anyway, this dead time on the sports schedule provides us with an opportunity to predict and project the upcoming baseball season. Sooo... that's what I did! What did I do? Here's what I did:
As of now, there are four widely recognized, freely available lists of player projections on the internet: the CHONE projections (http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html), the Marcel projections (http://www.tangotiger.net/marcel/), the ZiPS projections (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/), and the Bill James projections (available on http://www.fangraphs.com/). As far as I know, these are the only projections out there that are based on statistical analysis and not just general estimation. I'm still unwilling to shell out the cash for a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, mostly because there's so much information available out there for free that it's just not worth it. Also, I read Joe Sheehan on Baseball Analysts anyway. The point is, I think I have enough trustworthy projections that I can survive without Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections.
Okay, so I downloaded the spreadsheets for each of those projections (Bill James is not available in spreadsheet format, so I won't be using his numbers much in my analysis. I'll mostly use him to provide credibility to the other projections), and had an awesome time fiddling around with them. I summed and averaged a bunch of the columns so that I could get league averages to which I could compare the Mets' numbers. I went to http://www.mlb.com/ and copied down the 40-man active New York Mets roster and found their relevant projected stats. Then, for each of the projections, I compared their stats to the league averages. In order to determine how good (or bad) each player was compared to the league averages, I only used rate stats. For pitchers I used ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 (CHONE projections also included Runs over Replacement, so I used that too), and for batters I used SB%, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS (ZiPS included Runs Created projections, so I used that too).
If you've gotten this far, it means that you care a lot about baseball, or about my feelings on the Mets. Or you just like me a lot. Anyway, if you've gotten this far because you care a lot about baseball, I'm going to explain how to calculate all of those stats. This is important because I had to calculate the league averages on my own. What I mean is that I didn't need to calculate David Wright's Slugging Percentage because it was given to me in the projection, but I needed to sum the necessary components of the mathematical formula so that I could calculate the league average Slugging Percentage. Anyway, I will use Marcel's Johan Santana as my example for pitchers and David Wright as my example for batters:
ERA: (Earned Runs divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (71 / 193) * 9 = 3.31
WHIP: (Walks + Runs) divided by Innings Pitched. Santana: (48 + 164) / 193 = 1.098
K/BB: Strikeouts divided by Walks. Santana: (198 / 48) = 4.125
K/9: (Strikeouts divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (198 / 193) * 9 = 9.233
BB/9: (Walks divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (48 / 193) * 9 = 2.238
HR/9: (Home Runs divided by Innings Pitched) times nine. Santana: (23 / 193) * 9 = 1.073
SB%: Stolen Bases divided by (Stolen Bases + Caught Stealing). Wright: 23 / (23 + 4) = .852
BA: Hits divided by At-Bats. Wright: 170 / 539 = .315
OBP: (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) divided by (At-Bats + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Sacrifice Flies). Wright: (170 + 72 + 5) / (539 + 72 + 5 + 6) = .397
SLG: ((1 times Singles) + (2 times Doubles) + (3 times Triples) + (4 times Home Runs)) divided by At-Bats. Wright: ((1 * 106) + (2 * 38) + (3 * 2) + (4 * 24)) / 539 = .527
OPS: OBP + SLG. Wright: .397 + .527 = .924
Great! Now I'll use those numbers and compare them to the league average and come out with some new stats. I called these new stats "Plus" stats. What I did was I took David Wright's projected BA of .315 and divided it by the league projected BA of .270. Then I multiplied this by 100. (.315 / .270) * 100 = 117. I called this 117 David Wright's BA+. I did the same thing for each of the other stats (keep in mind that the OPS+ and ERA+ numbers I calculated are not the actual OPS+ and ERA+, which are real sabermetric stats that involve more complex calculations. These "Plus" stats are my own). I'll give one more example, because for some of the pitching stats it's better to be below the league average. I took Johan Santana's projected ERA of 3.31 and divided it by the league average ERA of 4.49, and subtracted the result from one. Then I multiplied that by 100 and added 100. ((1 - (3.31 / 4.49)) * 100) + 100 = 126, Santana's ERA+.
Okay, now I'm done explaining. Now I'll provide some notes on each player on the 40-man roster who I belive will get significant playing time, and then I'll give a little analysis on the team as a whole. This might be my longest post ever. Who's excited?: (Players I will not be mentioning: Adam Bostick, Willie Collazo, Ruddy Lugo, Carlos Muniz, Steven Register, Brian Stokes, Jason Vargas, Anderson Hernandez, and Angel Pagan)
Johan Santana:
Marcel: 193 IP, 3.31 ERA, 198 Ks, 1.098 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 122 WHIP+, 206 K/BB+, 139 K/9+, 133 BB/9+, 96 HR/9+.
CHONE: 212 IP, 2.50 ERA, 232 Ks, 0.948 WHIP, 60 RoR, 143 ERA+, 134 WHIP+, 298 K/BB+, 152 K/9+, 149 BB/9+, 113 HR/9+, 653 RoR+.
ZiPS: 234 IP, 3.04 ERA, 244 Ks, 1.017 WHIP, 134 ERA+, 131 WHIP+, 306 K/BB+, 156 K/9+, 145 BB/9+, 114 HR/9+.
Bill James: 216 IP, 3.00 ERA, 228 Ks, 1.069 WHIP.
Clearly Santana is an elite pitcher. Marcel is known for its conservative pitching projections, which were quite accurate last year. But even if Santana puts up those numbers, he would likely still be one of the top three pitchers in the NL. But if he manages to put up numbers like the other projections would suggest, then it will be one of the best pitching seasons we've seen in the NL in a long time. Jesus, his CHONE projections of 2.50 ERA, 0.948 WHIP and RoR+ of 653 would be absolutely absurd. I can't wait to watch him in person. As stated on The Hardball times website, "Oh, and if his price tag is really bothering any of you, think of it this way: in 2007 the Mets paid $23.25 million to Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, and Shawn Green. In 2008, they'll be paying roughly the same amount to Santana, Brian Schneider, and Ryan Church."
Pedro Martinez:
Marcel: 87 IP, 3.93 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.23 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 154 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 119 BB/9+, 110 HR/9+.
CHONE: 63 IP, 3.14 ERA, 62 Ks, 1.095 WHIP, 11 RoR, 128 ERA+, 123 WHIP+, 197 K/BB+, 137 K/9+, 130 BB/9+, 111 HR/9+, 120 RoR+.
ZiPS: 150 IP, 3.24 ERA, 145 Ks, 1.100 WHIP, 129 ERA+, 126 WHIP+, 233 K/BB+, 145 K/9+, 132 BB/9+, 123 HR/9+.
Bill James: 125 IP, 2.88 ERA, 135 Ks, 1.024 WHIP.
Pedro is an interesting variable this season. He is clearly an effective pitcher when he's healthy, but he has been anything but healthy for most of the past two seasons. The Marcel and CHONE projections are very conservative with only 87 and 63 expected Innings Pitched. I was prepared to disregard the ZiPS projection because it varied so differently from the other two, but Bill James is also optimistic about Pedro remaining healthy enough to log 100+ innings. If the Mets can get 300+ innings between Pedro and Johan this season, this will be a scary rotation.
John Maine:
Marcel: 163 IP, 4.03 ERA, 141 Ks, 1.282 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 112 K/BB+, 117 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 88 HR/9+.
CHONE: 155 IP, 3.89 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.348 WHIP, 19 RoR, 111 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 105 K/BB+, 111 K/9+, 93 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+, 207 RoR+.
ZiPS: 178 IP, 4.15 ERA, 148 Ks, 1.315 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 130 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
Bill James: 200 IP, 4.05 ERA, 169 Ks, 1.355 WHIP
All of these projections seem to think that the John Maine of the second half of last year is the real John Maine. His first half was outstanding, but he came back to Earth in the second half, allowing many more homers and walking more batters. Each projection has him walking more batters than average. He will still be an above-average pitcher, but we shouldn't expect anything spectacular out of him.
Oliver Perez:
Marcel: 160 IP, 4.50 ERA, 147 Ks, 1.438 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 98 WHIP+, 97 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 71 BB/9+, 80 HR/9+.
CHONE: 148 IP, 4.14 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.196 WHIP, 14 RoR, 105 ERA+, 116 WHIP+, 174 K/BB+, 143 K/9+, 118 BB/9+, 81 HR/9+, 152 RoR+.
ZiPS: 176 IP, 4.04 ERA, 170 Ks, 1.324 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 136 K/BB+, 144 K/9+, 85 BB/9+, 98 HR/9+.
Bill James: 190 IP, 4.69 ERA, 196 Ks, 1.453 WHIP
Wow, I am surprised. Here I thought that in his third season with the Mets under pitching coach Rick Peterson that Perez was primed for a breakout season. None of the projections agree with me, however. They all think he'll walk too many guys, give up too many home runs, and allow too many baserunners. I'm going to go against the grain a bit, and say that he will have an ERA below 4.00 and be better than any of these projections claim. That's Schmutter's Bold Preseason Prediction #1.
Mike Pelfrey:
Marcel: 95 IP, 4.83 ERA, 66 Ks, 1.505 WHIP, 92 ERA+, 93 WHIP+, 79 K/BB+, 94 K/9+, 80 BB/9+, 117 HR/9+.
CHONE: 119 IP, 4.01 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.403 WHIP, 9 RoR, 108 ERA+, 102 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 119 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 119 HR/9+, 98 RoR+.
ZiPS: 150 IP, 4.86 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.487 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 99 WHP+, 87 K/BB+, 90 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 123 HR/9+.
Bill James: 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 Ks, 1.281 WHIP
There's quite a bit of disparity here among the projections; Marcel and ZiPS think Pelfrey will be below average and CHONE and James think he'll be above average. It's likely that Pelfrey will fall somewhere in between, which is just fine with me for a #5 starter. It's rare for teams to have a league-average fifth starter, az I'll take it. Pelfrey is still a relatively unknown quantity because of his limited major league experience. I'm interested in seeing how he does, especially with the knowledge that El Duque is there to steal innings from him. Speaking of which...
Orlando Hernandez:
Marcel: 148 IP, 4.50 ERA, 123 Ks, 1.358 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 103 WHIP+, 99 K/BB+, 113 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 76 HR/9+.
CHONE: 141 IP, 3.77 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.298 WHIP, 19 RoR, 114 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 124 K/BB+, 122 K/9+, 101 BB/9+, 109 HR/9+, 207 RoR+.
ZiPS: 142 IP, 4.25 ERA, 119 Ks, 1.331 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 121 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 87 BB/9+, 94 HR/9+.
Bill James: 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 Ks, 1.281 WHIP.
You see, since nobody really knows how old this guy is it's hard to predict when he's going to start showing his age. Some of these guys think he's already starting to regress, and the projections reflect that. Either way, it looks like El Duque will be right around league-average or slightly above. The Mets will probably use him out of the bullpen a lot, either as a situational guy for an out or two at a time, or as a long-reliever.
Pedro Feliciano:
Marcel: 63 IP, 3.57 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.317 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 114 K/9+, 93 BB/9+, 131 HR/9+.
CHONE: 41 IP, 3.51 ERA, 35 Ks, 1.268 WHIP, 5 RoR, 120 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 135 K/BB+, 119 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 122 HR/9+, 54 RoR+.
ZiPS: 65 IP, 3.19 ERA, 58 Ks, 1.246 WHIP, 131 ERA+, 116 WHIP+, 134 K/BB+, 133 K/9+, 91 BB/9+, 145 HR/9+.
Bill James: 68 IP, 3.57 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.309 WHIP.
Feliciano will be one of the prime setup men for Billy Wagner. Willie Randolph will often bring him in to face a couple of tough lefties earlier on in the game, and also to pitch the seventh inning to get the ball to Aaron Heilman for the eighth. He is projected to have an ERA in the mid-threes and not allow terribly many base runners. He'll also strike out his share of batters. He should be a solid presence in the middle of that bullpen.
Aaron Heilman:
Marcel: 77 IP, 3.62 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.221 WHIP, 119 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 127 K/BB+, 107 K/9+, 116 BB/9+, 121 HR/9+.
CHONE: 112 IP, 3.46 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.277 WHIP, 15 RoR, 121 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 125 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 106 BB/9+, 129 HR/9+, 163 RoR+.
ZiPS: 87 IP, 3.21 ERA, 73 Ks, 1.184 WHIP, 130 ERA+, 120 WHIP+, 156 K/BB+, 125 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 142 HR/9+.
Bill James: 87 IP, 3.41 ERA, 72 Ks, 1.230 WHIP.
Again, I find this surprising. Heilman has had many problems in the past, so I find it amazing that they all project him to be so effective. They think he won't walk many and give up very few home runs. I hope they're right. With Heilman, Feliciano, Sanchez, and Wagner coming out of the bullpen, a lot of these games might be over after five or six innings. That would be a huge improvement over last season.
Duaner Sanchez:
Marcel: 31 IP, 3.77 ERA, 24 Ks, 1.323 WHIP, 116 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 100 K/BB+, 105 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 116 HR/9+.
CHONE: 69 IP, 3.65 ERA, 54 Ks, 1.319 WHIP, 8 RoR, 116 ERA+, 108 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 109 K/9+, 99 BB/9+, 130 HR/9+, 87 RoR+.
ZiPS: 69 IP, 3.52 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.304 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 112 WHIP+, 113 K/BB+, 115 K/9+, 90 BB/9+, 137 HR/9+.
Bill James: 61 IP, 3.98 ERA, 45 Ks, 1.361 WHIP.
Man did we miss him last season. If it weren't for that freak traffic accident we'd have had a pretty decent bullpen. The projections say that he'll be solid coming out of the bullpen. If he can keep his walks down and return to form, then this bullpen will be scary.
Jorge Sosa:
Marcel: 105 IP, 4.46 ERA, 69 Ks, 1.419 WHIP, 101 ERA+, 99 WHIP+, 86 K/BB+, 89 K/9+, 97 BB/9+, 84 HR/9+.
CHONE: 119 IP, 4.24 ERA, 81 Ks, 1.378 WHIP, 4 RoR, 103 ERA+, 104 WHIP+, 95 K/BB+, 95 K/9+, 100 BB/9+, 79 HR/9+, 44 RoR+.
ZiPS: 4.47 ERA, 77 Ks, 1.427 WHIP, 103 ERA+, 103 WHIP+, 89 K/BB+, 88 K/9+, 92 BB/9+, 101 HR/9+.
Bill James: 112 IP, 4.38 ERA, 75 Ks, 1.426 WHIP.
Sosa seems to be your typical long-relief / spot-starter guy. He might stack up as a decent #5 starter on another team. He was pretty effective last year in his handful of starts, and held his own out of the bullpen the rest of the season. I'd say he's a good guy to have around, but I don' think he'll quite reach his Innings Pitched projections unless the Mets are inundated with injuries.
Scott Schoeneweis:
Marcel: 60 IP, 4.65 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.450 WHIP, 96 ERA+, 97 WHIP+, 79 K/BB+, 93 K/9+, 83 BB/9+, 113 HR/9+.
CHONE: 65 IP, 4.57 ERA, 43 Kso 1.523 WHIP, 5 RoR, 95 ERA+, 94 WHIP+, 89 K/BB+, 92 K/9+, 97 BB/9+, 114 HR/9+, 54 RoR+.
ZiPS: 56 IP, 4.34 ERA, 39 Ks, 1.464 WHIP, 105 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 80 K/BB+, 104 K/9+, 59 BB/9+, 136 HR/9+.
Bill James: 60 IP, 4.50 ERA, 36 Ks, 1.467 WHIP.
I think Scotty should be relegated to the role of a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY). By all projections he doesn't strike anybody out, walks his fair share, and doesn't give up many home runs. I say bring him in once a game to get out that one left-handed hitter. Any more action than that will come to no good.
Billy Wagner:
Marcel: 66 IP, 3.27 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.227 WHIP, 127 ERA+, 113 WHIP+, 152 K/BB+, 137 K/9+, 110 BB/9+, 108 HR/9+.
CHONE: 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.058 WHIP, 15 RoR, 137 ERA+, 126 WHIP+, 227 K/BB+, 161 K/9+, 129 BB/9+, 130 HR/9+, 163 RoR+.
ZiPS: 73 IP, 2.71 ERA, 84 Ks, 1.082 WHIP, 141 ERA+, 127 WHIP+, 221 K/BB+, 172 K/9+, 115 BB/9+, 121 HR/9+.
Bill James: 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 82 Ks, 1.014 WHIP.
Wagner remains one of the best closers in the game. As my brother reminded me last weekend, Wagner has the highest K/9 ratio of any pitcher with 500 IP ever. Even as he gets older, Wagner continues to mow down opposing hitters in the ninth inning. Expect another productive season for Billy this year.
Ambiorix Burgos:
Marcel: 44 IP, 4.50 ERA, 40 Ks, 1.409 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 100 WHIP+, 105 K/BB+, 123 K/9+, 83 BB/9+, 81 HR/9+.
CHONE: 85 IP, 3.92 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.424 WHIP, 7 RoR, 110 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 106 K/BB+, 147 K/9+, 60 BB/9+, 106 HR/9+, 76 RoR+.
ZiPS: 67 IP, 4.97 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.388 WHIP, 92 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 138 K/BB+, 150 K/9+, 82 BB/9+, 50 HR/9+.
Bill James: 45 IP, 4.60 ERA, 46 Ks, 1.422 WHIP.
I really couldn't tell you how much of an impact Burgos will have this year. The Met bullpen is pretty well stocked, so unless there are a couple of injuries I don't see Burgos getting much of a shot. And it's really a shame, because he has a blazing fastball that goes about a million miles per hour, and we never really got a chance to see it. Maybe he'll be lights out in spring training.
Joe Smith:
Marcel: 47 IP, 4.02 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.426 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 99 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 91 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
ZiPS: 49 P, 3.66 ERA, 49 Ks, 1.322 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 110 WHIP+, 129 K/BB+, 124 K/9+, 95 BB/9+, 151 HR/9+.
I find it intriguing that a pitcher like Smith, who got to pitch a bunch of innings last year is absent from two of the projections, especially considering his favorable expectations from the remaining two. Both Marcel and ZiPS expect him to be above average. He's still young though; a few months or another season in the minors couldn't hurt.
Matt Wise:
Marcel: 56 IP, 4.18 ERA, 43 Ks, 1.393 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 101 WHIP+, 108 K/BB+, 104 K/9+, 103 BB/9+, 107 HR/9+.
CHONE: 56 IP, 4.02 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.339 WHIP, 6 RoR, 108 ERA+, 106 WHIP+, 116 K/BB+, 102 K/9+, 112 BB/9+, 100 HR/9+, 65 RoR+.
ZiPS: 54 IP, 4.00 ERA, 42 Ks, 1.315 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 111 WHIP+, 135 K/BB+, 116 K/9+, 106 BB/9+, 120 HR/9+.
Bill James: 40 IP, 3.83 ERA, 31 Ks, 1.275 WHIP.
Wise looks like he'll shape up to be a nice addition to the pen this season. Interesting how he's projected at average or above average in every single area. I'll admit that I never heard of him before I looked at the Mets active roster, but I look forward to hearing a lot of him this year.
Brian Schneider:
Marcel: .253 BA, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 2 SB, .326 OBP, .365 SLG, .692 OPS, 94 BA+, 97 OBP+, 86 SLG+, 91 OPS+.
CHONE: .251 BA, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .316 OBP, .365 SLG, .678 OPS, 96 BA+, 99 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 96 OPS+.
ZiPS: .238 BA, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 1 SB, .316 OBP, .318 SLG, .634 OPS, 3.5 RC/27, 94 BA+, 99 OBP+, 81 SLG+, 89 OPS+, 83 RC/27+.
Bill James: .249 BA, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 0 SB, .328 OBP, .362 SLG, .690 OPS, 4.06 RC/27.
Well, he probably won't hit much worse than Paul LoDuca, and he'll probably play a helluvalot better defense. I still think that Ramon Castro should get a lot of at-bats because he's clearly a better hitter. Schneider has been quite durable and he's not old, so I don't think Willie Randolph will hesitate to use Castro as a pinch hitter quite often. I mean usually managers like to keep one catcher in reserve because it's the hardest position on the field to replace. But in this case, I think Randolph can be more flexible.
Ramon Castro:
Marcel: .262 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 2 SB, .330 OBP, .454 SLG, .784 OPS, 97 BA+, 98 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 103 OPS+.
CHONE: .242 BA, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, .320 OBP, .396 SLG, .716 OPS, 92 BA+, 101 OBP+, 101 SLG+, 101 OPS+.
ZiPS: .250 BA, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB, .318 OBP, .434 SLG, .752 OPS, 4.6 RC/27, 98 BA+, 100 OBP+, 111 SLG+, 106 OPS+, 109 RC/27+.
Bill James: .252 BA, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 0 SB, .322 OBP, .469 SLG, .791 OPS, 5.15 RC/27.
Uch, he's such a better hitter than Schneider. I mean look at those Slugging Percentages! He's an extra-base-hit machine! Erm, that is when he makes contact... But I guess that's why he's not an every day player. I think if Schneider sucks it up or gets hurt, and Castro gets an opportunity to play every day, he'll really show us what he can do. Those over-100 OPS+s are very good for a catcher.
Carlos Delgado:
Marcel: .265 BA, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 3 SB, .349 OBP, .485 SLG, .833 OPS, 98 BA+, 103 OBP+, 114 SLG+, 109 OPS.
CHONE: .256 BA, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 0 SB, .350 OBP, .489 SLG, .839 OPS, 98 BA+, 110 OBP+, 125 SLG+, 118 OPS+.
ZiPS: .257 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB, .349 OBP, .476 SLG, .825 OPS, 5.9 RC/27, 101 BA+, 110 OBP+, 122 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 140 RC/27+.
Bill James: .269 BA, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, .373 OBP, .508 SLG, .881 OPS, 6.48 RC/27.
Heee's baaaaack! After a horrible 2007, all of these projections feel that Delgado will bounce back, especially Bill James. If he can truly return to form, then the middle of the Mets batting order, Church, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, and Alou should terrorize NL East pitching. A lot of the blame for the Mets' struggles last year can be placed on Delgado. He'll be eager to show that he still has the skills that made him one of the most fearsome sluggers in all of baseball for the last decade and a half.
Luis Castillo:
Marcel: .290 BA, 4 HR, 42 RBI, 17 SB, .357 OBP, .371 SLG, .728 OPS, 107 BA+, 106 OBP+, 87 SLG+, 95 OPS+, 96 SB+.
CHONE: .293 BA, 4 HR, 49 RBI, 13 SB, .364 OBP, .369 SLG, .733 OPS, 112 BA+, 114 OBP+, 94 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 94 SB+.
ZiPS: .294 BA, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 18 SB, .361 OBP, .359 SLG, .720 OPS, 4.7 RC/27, 116 BA+, 114 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 101 OPS+, 110 SB+, 112 RC/27+.
Bill James: .299 BA, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 20 SB, .370 OBP, .360 SLG, .730 OPS, 4.85 RC/27.
Castillo is an interesting hitter. He has absolutely no power, and will hit very few extra-base hits. Nontheless, he manages to walk a lot and makes contact, so he still gets on base a ton. The Mets have zero Second Base prospects, so they need stopgap until they can get somebody young, az Castillo looks like he'll be a fixture in this lineup for the next four seasons. I DON'T think he should bat second like he did last year; I think Ryan Church should hit second and Castillo should hit eighth.
Jose Reyes:
Marcel: .292 BA, 12 HR, 62 RBI, 59 SB, .351 OBP, .442 SLG, .793 OPS, 108 BA+, 104 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 104 OPS+, 109 SB+.
CHONE: .294 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 50 SB, .342 OBP, .440 SLG, .782 OPS, 112 BA+, 108 OBP+, 112 SLG+, 110 OPS+, 117 SB+.
ZiPS: .285 BA, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 71 SB, .356 OBP, .444 SLG, .800 OPS, 5.7 RC/28, 112 BA, 112 OBP+, 113 SLG+, 113 OPS+, 119 SB+, 135 RC/27+.
Bill James: .289 BA, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 69 SB, .348 OBP, .442 SLG, .790 OPS, 5.57 RC/27.
I'm upset that all the projections took Reyes's second half dropoff last year so seriously. Before that he was being touted as maybe the best all around player in the game. Now nobody projects him to have an OPS higher than .800. Don't get me wrong, he's still an outstanding player, but he's no longer expected to be that elite player. I think he'll outperform all of these projections. Schmutter's Bold Preseason Prediction #2: Reyes's OPS is higher than .825 and he outperforms Jimmy Rollins.
David Wright:
Marcel: .315 BA, 24 HR, 98 RBI, 23 SB, .397 OBP, .527 SLG, .924 OPS, 117 BA+, 118 OBP+, 124 SLG+, 121 OPS+, 115 SB+.
CHONE: .301 BA, 26 HR, 96 RBI, 19 SB, .387 OBP, .518 SLG, .905 OPS, 115 BA+, 122 OBP+, 132 SLG+, 127 OPS+, 115 SB+.
ZiPS: .313 BA, 29 HR, 113 RBI, 23 SB, .405 OBP, .540 SLG, .945 OPS, 8.4 RC/27, 123 BA+, 127 OBP+, 138 SLG+, 133 OPS+, 125 SB+, 200 RC/27+.
Bill James: .318 BA, 31 HR, 111 RBI, 27 SB, .407 OBP, .554 SLG, .961 OPS, 8.52 RC/27.
What a stud! There are a lot of sabermetricians out there who think he's the best player in the NL, and I don't know if I can argue against it. Now that Miguel Cabrera is gone, the only other players in the NL that have a chance to be as good as Wright for the foreseeable future are Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun. Utley's and Howard's numbers get inflated by their ballpark, and Ramirez and Braun are brutal defensive players, so it's really down to Wright and Utley. Those two will be challenging each other for the MVP all season. And if Delgado and Beltran can provide him some support and protection in the lineup, it will only help Wright more.
Moises Alou:
Marcel: .300 BA, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB, .359 OBP, .493 SLG, .852 OPS, 111 BA+, 106 OBP+, 116 SLG+, 112 OPS+.
CHONE: .282 BA, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 3 SB, .349 OBP, .459 SLG, .808 OPS, 108 BA+, 110 OBP+, 117 SLG+, 114 OPS+.
ZiPS: .302 BA, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB, .365 OBP, .489 SLG, .854 OPS, 6.6 RC/27, 119 BA+, 115 OBP+, 125 SLG+, 120 OPS+, 157 RC/27+.
Bill James: .292 BA, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 3 SB, .360 OBP, .477 SLG, .837 OPS, 6.28 RC/27.
I don't care if he is 93 years old, dude can still rake. I mean nobody expects him to play more than 100 games or so, but he'll still manage to be productive when he's healthy. Guy's a professional hitter, period (comma period period). I'm not too crazy about the prospect of Endy Chavez taking over when Mo gets injured, but that's the risk you take. I hear we've got this guy named Martinez down in the minors...
Endy Chavez:
Marcel: .283 BA, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 8 SB, .333 OBP, .407 SLG, .740 OPS, 105 BA+, 99 OBP+, 96 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
CHONE: .277 BA, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 15 SB, .326 OBP, .379 SLG, .705 OPS, 106 BA+, 103 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 99 OPS+, 109 SB+.
ZiPS: .275 BA, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB, .319 OBP, .379 SLG, .698 OPS, 4.1 RC/27, 108 BA+, 100 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 98 OPS+, 97 RC/27+.
Bill James: .273 BA, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, .318 OBP, .368 SLG, .696 OPS, 4.19 RC/27.
Endy's a nice little stopgap for when Moises Alou inevitably goes on the disabled list. He filled in nicely a couple of years ago, and he will always have a special place in Mets fans' hearts for stealing a home run from Scott Rolen in game seven of the 2006 NLCS. And everyone likes to pull for the little guy. He has absolutely no power, but he always plays hard and will surprise us with the occasional home run. He's an outstanding defensive outfielder and will come in late in many games as a defensive replacement to spare Alou's rickety knees any excess punishment. All in all he's not a bad guy to have around.
Carlos Beltran:
Marcel: .271 BA, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 18 SB, .355 OBP, .498 SLG, .853 OPS, 100 BA+, 105 OBP+, 117 SLG+, 112 OPS+, 116 SB+.
CHONE: .271 BA, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 23 SB, .373 OBP, .496 SLG, .869 OPS, 103 BA+, 117 OBP+, 127 SLG+, 122 OPS+, 124 SB+.
ZiPS: .261 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 15 SB, .347 OBP, .476 SLG, .823 OPS, 5.9 RC/27, 103 BA+, 109 OBP+, 121 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 134 SB+, 140 RC/27+.
Bill James: .275 BA, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 23 SB, .364 OBP, .515 SLG, .879 OPS, 6.73 RC/27.
I feel like Beltran is the forgotten man in this Mets lineup (as much as a man making $119 million can be forgotten); he's just so quiet and unobtrusive. Everyone marvels at Wright's youth, and Reyes's excitement, and Delgado's smelliness from last year, but Beltran really proves his worth day after day. He plays an excellent center field, steals bases, and hits for power. I think the Marcel and ZiPS projections are a bit low, and James might be a bit high, but if Carlos can put up an OPS of .850 and hit 30 home runs, we'll be very happy.
Damion Easley:
Marcel: .250 BA, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 3 SB, .325 OBP, .414 SLG, .740 OPS, 93 BA+, 96 OBP+, 97 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
CHONE: .249 BA, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, .329 OBP, .402 SLG, .731 OPS, 95 BA+, 103 OBP+, 103 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 97 SB+.
ZiPS: .242 BA, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB, .321 OBP, .392 SLG, .713 OPS, 4.3 RC/27, 95 BA+, 101 OBP+, 100 SLG+, 100 OPS+, 102 RC/27+.
Bill James: .235 BA, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .326 OBP, .395 SLG, .721 OPS, 3.95 RC/27.
Ruben Gotay:
Marcel: .272 BA, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 4 SB, .337 OBP, .415 SLG, .752 OPS, 101 BA+, 100 OBP+, 98 SLG+, 98 OPS+.
CHONE: .251 BA, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB, .315 OBP, .373 SLG, .688 OPS, 96 BA+, 99 OBP+, 95 SLG+, 97 OPS+.
ZiPS: .245 BA, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .304 OBP, .361 SLG, .665 OPS, 3.6 RC/27, 96 BA+, 96 OBP+, 92 SLG+, 94 OPS+, 86 RC/27+.
Bill James: .258 BA, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB, .321 OBP, .406 SLG, .727 OPS, 4.33 RC/27.
Marlon Anderson:
Marcel: .278 BA, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 6 SB, .335 OBP, .443 SLG, .778 OPS, 103BA+, 99 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 102 OPS+.
CHONE: .267 BA, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 5 SB, .322 OBP, .419 SLG, .741 OPS, 102 BA+, 101 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 104 OPS+.
ZiPS: .257 BA, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB, .319 OBP, .410 SLG, .729 OPS, 4.4 RC/27, 101 BA+, 100 OBP+, 104 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 105 RC/27+.
Bill James: .262 BA, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 3 SB, .323 OBP, .402 SLG, .725 OPS, 4.57 RC/27.
Easley, Gotay, and Anderson are going to be the Mets top utility guys. They can play the infield and the outfield, and they can be used to benefit from the platoon advantage. They'll be good for a little pop off the bench, and will fill in nicely when Castillo, Delgado, Beltran, and Church need breaks or get injured. This is really shaping up to be be a solid bench. I should do some research on play from non-starters from recent successful teams.
Ryan Church:
Marcel: .274 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 6 SB, .350 OBP, .465 SLG, .815 OPS, 102 BA+, 104 OBP+, 109 SLG+, 107 OPS+.
CHONE: .244 BA, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, .324 OBP, .414 SLG, .738 OPS, 93 BA+, 102 OBP+, 106 SLG+, 104 OPS.
ZiPS: .272 BA, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB, .351 OBP, .469 SLG, .820 OPS, 5.7 RC/27, 107 BA+, 110 OBP+, 120 SLG+, 116 OPS+, 135 RC/27+.
Bill James: .273 BA, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .353 OBP, .463 SLG, .816 OPS, 5.71 RC/27.
For my in-depth Ryan Church analysis, see my post from November 20th, 2007, entitled "Church v. Hunter."
Mets Pitching Totals:
Marcel: 4.20 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 104 WHIP+, 109 K/BB+, 113 K/9+, 103 BB/9+, 103 HR/9+.
CHONE: 3.84 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 124 K/BB+, 118 K/9+, 105 BB/9+, 106 HR/9+, 136 RoR+.
ZiPS: 4.25 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 109 WHIP+, 125 K/BB+, 117 K/9+, 98 BB/9+, 110 HR/9+.
Bill James: 3.83 ERA, 1.281 WHIP.
By all accounts, this staff will match up with the best in the league. It's clearly the best staff in the NL East, and it will be interesting to see how it matches up with the staffs in the NL West, namely the staffs of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres. Either way, what was considered a weakness in the team last season is now a strength, especially if the pitchers can stay healthy.
Mets Hitting Totals:
Marcel: .278 BA, .348 OBP, .446 SLG, .793 OPS, 103 BA+, 103 OBP+, 105 SLG+, 104 OPS+.
CHONE: .269 BA, .338 OBP, .419 SLG, .757 OPS, 103 BA+, 106 OBP+, 107 SLG+, 107 OPS+.
ZiPS: .251 BA, .341 OBP, .392 SLG, .733 OPS, 99 BA+, 107 OBP+, 100 SLG+, 103 OPS+, 119 RC/27+.
Bill James: .279 BA, .325 OBP, .453 SLG, .778 OPS, 5.31 RC/27.
I'm going to ignore the ZiPS projection because it has the most players on it. It gives projections for many players that probably will not see any major league plate appearances this year. The other projections show that the Mets' lineup will be above average all around. Again, they need to get good production out of Carlos Delgado and they need to stay healthy, but I guess I can say that about any team. Look for the Mets to go through some cold stretches, but the pitching should hold up its end of the bargain and minimize these cold stretches.
Final Bold Preseason Prediction: The Mets won 88 games last year, and that included a horrible month of September. I predict that the Mets will win 96 games and lose 66 games and win the NL East. Beyond that, who can say? The playoffs are a crapshoot anyway, right?